[XMR] Monero Speculation

[rdnkjdi]

People, Joe and Jill Public, don't want cryptonote. They might go for another alt, but it will be easy to use and they will want to be able to track their money and to prove it to the authorities.

I don't know if this matters ... but if you look at the GUI interface posted in the missives I find it more user friendly than anything I've used with bitcoin/litecoin.  Admittedly it's been awhile.

Also from what I can tell I would be able to prove my transactions in/out as far as amounts are concerned. 

I personally don't see Monero ever competing with bitcoin simply for the network effect.  It actually hurts user adoption IMO for one group of people to get rich at the expense of another group of people having their currency turned into something "worthless" overnight.  (What's been going on with alts since the start of this forum). 

[1715363366]

1715363366

[rpietila]

People, Joe and Jill Public, don't want cryptonote. They might go for another alt, but it will be easy to use and they will want to be able to track their money and to prove it to the authorities.

The same people currently participate in fiat system, which is so hellishly complicated that not 100 people in Finland could explain it for a perfect 6/6 essay. (I believe the number is much bigger for gold mining and Bitcoin mining.) Henry Ford said that it is good people don't understand it for otherwise there'd be a revolution before morning. Shame that Ford is not with us, he did not live to see the revolution we are witnessing!

The account software in XMR will do all the bookkeeping for you, just print is out for taxes. No sweat.

[Febo]

Looks like it's time for a little bull tun in next days! Just a little push is needed

Middle of month is here. No push needed at this time of month usually. It will probably happen this week or beginning of next. After that will not go under 0.004 ever again.

[h3speros]

guys help me defend 0.004! my bid is at 0.004011 and its almost eaten =D

EDIT. ...and it's gone, now we can go up

[Unbelive]

guys help me defend 0.004! my bid is at 0.004011 and its almost eaten =D

EDIT. ...and it's gone, now we can go up

Why you want to defend anything?
Just buy as low as you can and sell as high as you can.
If you expect there will be much higher after some period of time, just hold.

[NewLiberty]

People, Joe and Jill Public, don't want cryptonote. They might go for another alt, but it will be easy to use and they will want to be able to track their money and to prove it to the authorities.

The account software in XMR will do all the bookkeeping for you, just print is out for taxes. No sweat.

There is very little reason not to use CryptoNote.  It does exactly what you want money to do.

Is "Fear of the state" supposed to be a good thing? 

There should not be fear with Monero. 
You can prove you have paid Ceasar its due.
And your competitor can not see your business.

[rpietila]

Had an impromptu business meeting with two guys I knew but haven't had contact with for months.

As a side effect, both are now holders of Monero. One had used BTC before, the other not. The one with previous experience in crypto is thinking in taking a 5-figure XMR position soon (if he can afford 5 figures when his fiat arrives).

[infofront]

EDIT: It's a psychology thing. They either wanted to gain more BTC (rpietila admitted this and I did so too) and/or hedge on possible BTC failure. Are you kidding me? This is expressing so little faith in Monero, if an alt has any chance to succeed it needs fanatics who aim at No1.

Please link where I have said my aim is to gain more BTC? If I read my mind correctly, it has not been my aim since summer-13.

Hedge is something I have talked about. USDXMR in my understanding would immediately gain a lot if something serious happened to Bitcoin, making it a perfect hedge.

I also believe Monero has the chance of taking over Bitcoin.

I'm not being purposely difficult, and I believe that you mean what you say, but XMR will not take over from bitcoin. Or rather, if XMR takes over from bitcoin, it will be in a drastically different crypto market, in which the potential for cryptocurrency to becme mainstream had been reduced to near zero.

People, Joe and Jill Public, don't want cryptonote. They might go for another alt, but it will be easy to use and they will want to be able to track their money and to prove it to the authorities.

All cryptocurrencies are bordering on impossible to use for 95% of people. This will improve across the board in coming years. And really, I doubt any one coin will ever be much easier to use than the others.

I don't know of many people who would want the authorities to know about their transactions. Why do most brick and mortar businesses prefer dealing in cash? Because people prefer to cheat on their taxes if they know they can easily hide their income from the authorities.

[Wifizone]

IMO ... I do not think XMR can overtake BTC due to network effect, first mover advantage and regulation issues on the horizon making it the defacto 'mainstream crypto currency'.  

Now that said, I do think XMR once official GUI and blockchain issues are solved could gain serious adoption in niche markets along the lines of Offshore banking vs Mainstream banking in the real world.

A slow and organic growth with decent price stabilization as we are seing is vital to this outlook. I must say that I am impressed with XMR and its price stablization in the midst of the attacks and FUD that have targeted it and lets not forget the daily minting of new coins.

I would like to extend, as a large holder of XMR, a very big thank you to the devs for their great work as well to the senior members of the community for their continued 'intelligent' discussions and ongoing support. This community is definatly not your typical altcoin community and should be praised for it.

[infofront]

I believe the network effect at this stage of the game is overblown.
Bitcoin has a $6.2 Billion market cap, which is peanuts. And the infrastructure consists of some amateurish exchanges, several large websites, some enthusiastic nerds, and maybe a few dozen ATMs.

[Wifizone]

I think you are under estimating the infrastructure around BTC.

The legal framework around getting ANYTHING -> FIAT is much more complexe than you think, and BTC is years ahead of any altcoin. This alone is huge for BTC.

As for the ATMs, just in Canada there must be 25+, last I heard I believe there was approx 150-200 worldwide in operation.

...and let's not overlook the VC funding surrounding BTC companies. I am not saying its impossible, but nothing wrong with a solid #2-4 position in this market for XMR some day.

[andrepd]

I can't find this info anywhere, so can anyone tell me where can I find a graph of XMR emission rate vs time? Also, how much does a high emission rate affect the ability for the price per coin to rise with the growth of XMR market cap?

[smoothie]

IMO ... I do not think XMR can overtake BTC due to network effect, first mover advantage and regulation issues on the horizon making it the defacto 'mainstream crypto currency'.  

Now that said, I do think XMR once official GUI and blockchain issues are solved could gain serious adoption in niche markets along the lines of Offshore banking vs Mainstream banking in the real world.

A slow and organic growth with decent price stabilization as we are seing is vital to this outlook. I must say that I am impressed with XMR and its price stablization in the midst of the attacks and FUD that have targeted it and lets not forget the daily minting of new coins.

I would like to extend, as a large holder of XMR, a very big thank you to the devs for their great work as well to the senior members of the community for their continued 'intelligent' discussions and ongoing support. This community is definatly not your typical altcoin community and should be praised for it.

Perhaps it won't over take Bitcoin. But it definitely has a lot going for it even now.

[ArticMine]

EDIT: It's a psychology thing. They either wanted to gain more BTC (rpietila admitted this and I did so too) and/or hedge on possible BTC failure. Are you kidding me? This is expressing so little faith in Monero, if an alt has any chance to succeed it needs fanatics who aim at No1.

Please link where I have said my aim is to gain more BTC? If I read my mind correctly, it has not been my aim since summer-13.

Hedge is something I have talked about. USDXMR in my understanding would immediately gain a lot if something serious happened to Bitcoin, making it a perfect hedge.

I also believe Monero has the chance of taking over Bitcoin.

I'm not being purposely difficult, and I believe that you mean what you say, but XMR will not take over from bitcoin. Or rather, if XMR takes over from bitcoin, it will be in a drastically different crypto market, in which the potential for cryptocurrency to becme mainstream had been reduced to near zero.

People, Joe and Jill Public, don't want cryptonote. They might go for another alt, but it will be easy to use and they will want to be able to track their money and to prove it to the authorities.

XMR over taking XBT may or may not happen. What is not the case is that XMR overtaking XBT means that end of crypto-currency, crypto-currency not becoming mainstream, or that those holding XBT will be left "holding the bag". The history of credit cards indicate the exact opposite is the case. American Express had a significant first mover advantage over VISA and MasterCard. This has not meant the end of credit cards, or credit cards not becoming mainstream. Furthermore those who invested in American Express in the early 1970s and held did very well. https://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=AXP+Interactive#symbol=axp;range=my;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=;

[h3speros]

guys help me defend 0.004! my bid is at 0.004011 and its almost eaten =D

EDIT. ...and it's gone, now we can go up

Why you want to defend anything?
Just buy as low as you can and sell as high as you can.
If you expect there will be much higher after some period of time, just hold.

i was jk, i meant that now is good time to buy (a little at least)

[h3speros]

price is stuck between trendline from 0.0051 - 0.004341 (log) and 6h ma20 and i suspect it's going to go up at least temporally, because it has stayed above 6h ma20 and action near 0.0038 seemed like bottoming process, would be nice cup and handle if we go to 0.0051 and then take little breather and then go strongly up

[aminorex]

...thinking in taking a 5-figure XMR position soon (if he can afford 5 figures when his fiat arrives).

I think it is very gentlemanly of you to share this information.  Thank you.  I would volunteer to help provide liquidity if it is lacking when the time comes.  It's always worthwhile to have more adoption.  (Although I could prefer more dispersion!)

[aminorex]

I think you are under estimating the infrastructure around BTC.

The legal framework around getting ANYTHING -> FIAT is much more complexe than you think, and BTC is years ahead of any altcoin. This alone is huge for BTC.

As for the ATMs, just in Canada there must be 25+, last I heard I believe there was approx 150-200 worldwide in operation.

...and let's not overlook the VC funding surrounding BTC companies. I am not saying its impossible, but nothing wrong with a solid #2-4 position in this market for XMR some day.

Fortunately XMR can leverage all of the work that has previously gone into BTC.  BTC is a wonderful transmission mechanism  - a bit slow, and not very discrete, but it is quite widely accepted, and easily converts with XMR, bidirectionally.

[kenji]

do you believe xmr can become a 1billlion dollar coin?
maybe in 1-2 years?

[Febo]

do you believe xmr can become a 1billlion dollar coin?
maybe in 1-2 years?

it will not become 1 billion usd in 2 years.
i would bet my life on it. Something really strange should happen to whole world,  if i am wrong.


PS:
Oh i misread it, i thought one coin.
Market cap could be 1.000,000.000 USD in 2 years. I give it tiny chances for that but no way to gamble my life on  it