However, if you tell me that it was all a conspiracy, then this is a road that you have to travel by yourself.
My rule is to not expect a conspiracy when it could be explained by rushing 'something' and/or incompetency.
Some of us have lived long enough lives to know that the world going from one crisis (Covid, world shutdown, mass layoffs), to another crisis (Money printer go brrr, massive inflation), to another crisis (Ukraine War), to another crisis (supply chain constraints, oil shortage, food shortage, etc.) to another crisis (Monkeypox, or whatthefuckeverisnext), in just a span of a few years is NOT normal. Like at all. The odds of such a pattern happening organically in such a short span of time are ridiculously low, low enough to know that they would have to be completely manufactured, planned events. That is the conspiracy part. Rolling from one catastrophe to another and then another is not normal. Those that believe otherwise just haven't lived long enough to know better. Welp, let's just throw another crisis onto the pile (Texas school shooting). During an election year no less. Gee, what are the odds.  Funny, had a friend tell me the same thing in 2011. We had fires in California, then that quake, which caused a tsunami, which caused a nuclear disaster. Think there was a plane crash and something else happening, friend was arguing how there was no way it could all be a coincidence my wife retired in summer of 2011. First month of retirement Earthquake,Tornado,Hurricane. I will check on it as it was 11 years ago but New Jersey had the three things happen in August 2011 IIRC. Google : "New Jersey earthquake 2011 Featured snippet from the web The last significant earthquake felt in New Jersey was on Aug. 23, 2011. That quake originated in central Virginia and had a magnitude of 5.8. Read this:Google Android phones to assist with earthquake alerts and searches. An earthquake with a magnitude of 5 to 5.9 is considered moderately strong on the Richter scale." Remember the first "Man in Black' movie..."You are not sad because of the rain...it rains because you are sad" Some people are like a queen bee...special. I am not sure what laws of physics are behind it, heck, it might further suggest that we are in a "simulation" and some 'users' have a bit more 'user-power'. Mostly (but not 100%) kidding. |
|
|
|
However, if you tell me that it was all a conspiracy, then this is a road that you have to travel by yourself.
My rule is to not expect a conspiracy when it could be explained by rushing 'something' and/or incompetency.
Some of us have lived long enough lives to know that the world going from one crisis (Covid, world shutdown, mass layoffs), to another crisis (Money printer go brrr, massive inflation), to another crisis (Ukraine War), to another crisis (supply chain constraints, oil shortage, food shortage, etc.) to another crisis (Monkeypox, or whatthefuckeverisnext), in just a span of a few years is NOT normal. Like at all. The odds of such a pattern happening organically in such a short span of time are ridiculously low, low enough to know that they would have to be completely manufactured, planned events. That is the conspiracy part. Rolling from one catastrophe to another and then another is not normal. Those that believe otherwise just haven't lived long enough to know better. Welp, let's just throw another crisis onto the pile (Texas school shooting). During an election year no less. Gee, what are the odds. Well, media does not report all "normal" stuff, like...geee...Webb telescope reached the desired temperatures and is about to start observations. I am looking forward to learning if Europa plumes contain some bio signature molecules (yes, Webb can do this). Long term interest would be if we would be able to detect Dyson "spheres" or not. My bet is...NOT. TL;DR media bias makes us "blind" to some things that are actually interesting, just not 'sensational'. |
|
|
|
|
Bought some more SPY calls...sure, a contrarian move, but we (investors) have been pushed down a lot since March; SP500 has to bounce a bit.
Bitcoin timing is trickier, could be ahead or behind by 2 wks..still, should pop back to either 100 or 200d EMA (38-42k-ish).
EDIT: I looked and that UST abomination is up 400% in the last hour, apparently. I wish it just disappear already. Could be causing a bit of a get-along pumpage on the daily.
|
|
|
|
|
enough about oil/gas...sorry
where is MY bitcoin rally to 200 day EMA?
|
|
|
|
The truth bomb:  So let me get this straight. It takes between 21 to 35 days for a Russian oil tanker to get to US ports to be offloaded.
It takes between 35 and 60 days for a tanker from the Middle East to make the same trek.
It takes about 10 hours to load the tanker and up to 24 hours to unload. If it has to wait in port to get to an unloading dock, it can take up to 3 days.
The average tanker burns 2,625 gallons of diesel fuel per hour. 22.38 pounds of CO2 are created from burning 1 gallon of diesel fuel.
So, in one hour, a tanker ship hauling oil to a refinery in the US creates 58,757.5 pounds of CO2 per hour. Averaging the travel time of the tankers, that's 27.67 million tons of CO2 per trip.
In comparison, your car creates between 6 and 9 tons per year.
Without going into all the equations of how many tankers come to the US per year, let alone our exports, will someone please explain to me how drilling our own oil and moving it through pipelines, along with importing oil from Canada via pipeline will not be more environmentally "green" for the world.
Please explain to me why buying oil from another country is good for the environment??
Or better yet how buying oil from another country is better than pumping our own oil??
There’s nothing green about this other than these elites are lining their pockets with green. On day one of his administration, Biden shut down the Keystone XL Pipline in the US that was transferring oil from Canada to the refineries, and on the very same day, lifted the sanctions against Russia's Nordstream II Pilipeline that were put in place to prevent them from being able to attack Ukraine. I have tried... I have given it a lot of thought... and I can't think of a single thing I would do, if I were an evil villain aiming to destroy the western economy, that has jot already been done better by the Biden administration. This CANNOT be simple dementia riddled incompetence... this is a well crafted, genius plan to destroy us. you don't make any sense, sorry. Biden got ruskies under 1000X more sanctions than puny sanctions-lite on Nordstream II. Also, how the sanction on one pipe were preventing them from attacking Ukraine? That does not compute at all and these two things have nothing to do with each other. By lifting the sanctions, Biden allowed Nordstream II to be completed just before the troops moved into Ukraine. Sanctions after the fact? Who gives a fuck? As soon as the mission is complete, the oil flows freely. It is NOT even the oil pipeline, dude, but a gas one and it is SHUT down, kaput. So what that it was completed? Nobody ever used it. |
|
|
|
The truth bomb: So let me get this straight. It takes between 21 to 35 days for a Russian oil tanker to get to US ports to be offloaded.
It takes between 35 and 60 days for a tanker from the Middle East to make the same trek.
It takes about 10 hours to load the tanker and up to 24 hours to unload. If it has to wait in port to get to an unloading dock, it can take up to 3 days.
The average tanker burns 2,625 gallons of diesel fuel per hour. 22.38 pounds of CO2 are created from burning 1 gallon of diesel fuel.
So, in one hour, a tanker ship hauling oil to a refinery in the US creates 58,757.5 pounds of CO2 per hour. Averaging the travel time of the tankers, that's 27.67 million tons of CO2 per trip.
In comparison, your car creates between 6 and 9 tons per year.
Without going into all the equations of how many tankers come to the US per year, let alone our exports, will someone please explain to me how drilling our own oil and moving it through pipelines, along with importing oil from Canada via pipeline will not be more environmentally "green" for the world.
Please explain to me why buying oil from another country is good for the environment??
Or better yet how buying oil from another country is better than pumping our own oil??
There’s nothing green about this other than these elites are lining their pockets with green. On day one of his administration, Biden shut down the Keystone XL Pipline in the US that was transferring oil from Canada to the refineries, and on the very same day, lifted the sanctions against Russia's Nordstream II Pilipeline that were put in place to prevent them from being able to attack Ukraine. I have tried... I have given it a lot of thought... and I can't think of a single thing I would do, if I were an evil villain aiming to destroy the western economy, that has jot already been done better by the Biden administration. This CANNOT be simple dementia riddled incompetence... this is a well crafted, genius plan to destroy us. you don't make any sense, sorry. Biden got ruskies under 1000X more sanctions than puny sanctions-lite on Nordstream II. Also, how the sanction on one pipe were preventing them from attacking Ukraine? That does not compute at all and these two things have nothing to do with each other. |
|
|
|
Any of you guys know who Andrew Henderson is? nomad capitalist ?
He is a dude with 10 passports. He seem to enjoy "collecting" them. US taxation is worldwide, so it does not matter where you live as long as you are US citizen. That, basically, makes it a "no" for a large % of people in US who would otherwise entertained living elsewhere for a while. OT: I started slowly buying SPY calls this am, maybe should have done so on Fri, expect a bounce to 50-62% level of 2022 decline in the next 6wk. Not a biggie if I lose, but I can make 500% if I am right. not OT: bitcoin-still just hodling, but as I said before, the push-up to 50-to 200 day EMA seems doable (that would be $34.5-41.5K). We shall see. |
|
|
|
However, if you tell me that it was all a conspiracy, then this is a road that you have to travel by yourself.
My rule is to not expect a conspiracy when it could be explained by rushing 'something' and/or incompetency.
Some of us have lived long enough lives to know that the world going from one crisis (Covid, world shutdown, mass layoffs), to another crisis (Money printer go brrr, massive inflation), to another crisis (Ukraine War), to another (supply chain constraints, oil shortage, food shortage, etc.) to another crisis (Monkeypox, or whatthefuckeverisnext), in just a span of a few years is NOT normal. Like at all. The odds of such a pattern happening organically in such a short span of time are ridiculously low, low enough to know that they would have to be completely manufactured, planned events. That is the conspiracy part. Rolling from one catastrophe to another and then another is not normal. Those that believe otherwise just haven't lived long enough to know better. Or, alternatively, it could mean that we are getting close to a "Singularity", a place where the pace of technological, societal and political changes start to occur faster than our comprehension and/or adaptation. Could be two sides of the same coin, though. EDIT: We can also simply be in the midst of the Fourth turning...the timing is right. EDIT2: I find the fact that we just had a congressional hearing on "aliens"/UFOs among all other 'stuff' very uncanny. |
|
|
|
One horrifying result from this will be the lives lost because of the trust lost in ACTUAL healthcare and science. For example. An MRNA drug. These kinds of drugs have the potential to do wonderful things for man. Possibly cure cancer, for example. And yet an enormous percent of people will go to their graves never taking another vaccine because of what happened the last few years. And the people hooting about how they deserve to die because of not "trusting science" are just WRONG. Calm down. I was feeling QUITE calm until I read those condescending words. That's OK. I am calm again now. But I also stand by my point which is we rolled the dice with an experimental drug, and used coercive means to push it and that will do damage to the reputations of science, healthcare and government for a whole generation. How much damage? Well that remains to be seen. I certainly hope we do not see people pushing for us to get down a similar path with Monkey Pox as we did with Covid. But if we do, just watch. The push back is going to be STRONG. And there you will see the seeds of mistrust beginning to bloom in the population. How bad will it be? Hard to say. We have to wait and see. not sure how you were calm...just re-read that post of yours that I partially quoted, omitting those parts. ...and there was nothing condescending in my reply...sometimes peeps just need to take it down a notch. I am glad that you are over it, though. I also think that they 'rolled the dice' to a degree, no question about that, so we are in agreement there, but as i said, our population was in a panic back then and the precious 'markets' were in a free-fall with some predicting an economic depression. They also rolled the dice on the MMT theory, which turned out a bunch of hogwash, as pretty much everyone on this thread expected. Alas, there is some sliver of normality of how economy responded to the increased cash outlay during relative goods scarcity. However, if you tell me that it was all a conspiracy, then this is a road that you have to travel by yourself. My rule is to not expect a conspiracy when it could be explained by rushing 'something' and/or incompetency. |
|
|
|
Do you eat meat? It contains animal DNA, you know.
Yeah.... how often do you eat monkey sandwiches ? i fail to see the point? How often do you get cowpox after eating beef? People eat Beef, and Beef farming, is relatively well monitored , I know, its something some of my family abroad actually are in charge of for their nation. Also, that same someone , told my family here in the UK, in the 80/s to NOT buy and serve any British beef....... know why? bovine spongiform encephalopathy, AKA, Creutzfeldt-Jakob AKA mad cow disease...... And do you know, that, the farmers of the UK, were feeding minced cow back to the cows.... including their brains.... as well as other unsavoury practices........ And do you know that the FARMERS KNEW HOW DANGEROUS IT WAS AND DID IT ANYWAY?  And do you know that the AUTHORITIES HERE IN THE UK ALSO KNEW ? You know how I know??? because my family member, who is in charge of an entire nations livestock in terms of health monitoring......... TOLD US IN THE 80s ABOUT IT, ANNNNNNNND TOLD US HOW HE KNEW! AND THAT THE FARMERS, THE GOVERNMENT, AND AS IT TURNS OUT MOSTLY THE WHOLE WORLDS EXPERTS AND RELEVANT PARTIES KNEW ABOUT IT !!! AND GUESS WHAT??? THE UK LET IT HAPPEN!!!! THEY LET AN ENTIRE NATION OF UNSUSPECTING, UNAWARE, PEOPLE, IGNORANT OF THE DANGERS , EAT THAT SHIT....... AND, FEED IT TO THEIR KIDS. The horrific disease it causes, lays dormant for decades..... and, the country, has still got that lovely treat to look forward to. The scientists, the farmers, the politicians, ministers, health officials, ALL KNEW. There is NOTHING as dangerous to human life , as human arrogance. I am aware of the Creutzfeldt-Jakob AKA mad cow disease. In farmers defense, they probably did not know what are the unsafe practices (basically, DO NOT feed cows brains of older cows). I think they got the point now. Prions (the 'infectious' proteins) are mostly concentrated in the brain tissue, so yea, don't eat brain tissue, EVER. having said that, the more pressure we put on "nature" and the more crowded we are, the more diseases would probably follow. With that, can bitcoin get over 30K pronto, ffs? |
|
|
|
Do you eat meat? It contains animal DNA, you know.
Yeah.... how often do you eat monkey sandwiches ? I fail to see the point. How often do you get cowpox after eating beef? Dude, adenovirus (mutated so it does not grow) giving chimps snuffles is NOT animal DNA, it is viral DNA. Viral (inactivated for growth) DNA has been used for decades as a vaccine vector with no trouble. |
|
|
|
One horrifying result from this will be the lives lost because of the trust lost in ACTUAL healthcare and science. For example. An MRNA drug. These kinds of drugs have the potential to do wonderful things for man. Possibly cure cancer, for example. And yet an enormous percent of people will go to their graves never taking another vaccine because of what happened the last few years. And the people hooting about how they deserve to die because of not "trusting science" are just WRONG. Calm down. I have no idea how it all came down, but after applying Occam's razor it might have looked something like this: Government is running around with 'hair on fire' due to population at large and their precious markets starting panicking. "What to to, what to do?" "Here, we have a tech that CAN help" "OK, let's do MINIMAL duration testing, then use it if we can't find anything immediately negative" Wham, bam-population is vaccinated by multiple methods (mRNA was NOT the most common world-wide, but probably was in US). BTW, there is nothing wrong with animal DNA as long as it is not expressed (produce animal proteins) in your blood. Do you eat meat? It contains animal DNA, you know. If someone is a human, than that's someone also have a pound of bacteria living in your gut. It also has it's own DNA, lol. TL;DR they used the tech that was not tested for a decade, like usual medications/vaccines are. Maybe some side effect would come out because of this. |
|
|
|
Lyn Alden says: "Throughout history, people have attempted to create something from nothing." My thought...isn't bitcoin also 'something' from 'nothing'? It absolutely would be if it were not for Proof of Work. What you are describing is the US dollar, or a PoS coin. This is one of the most simple, but badly understood pillars of Bitcoin. And we are not even close to being done with the attacks against PoW. Because not only is it what gives Bitcoin actual value it is also the KEY to taking the power away from the state. Sure, but I was talking merely about a concept. |
|
|
|
Lyn Alden says: "Throughout history, people have attempted to create something from nothing." My thought...isn't bitcoin also 'something' from 'nothing'? seems like a false initial thesis. If he/she (not sure about gender) started from a different initial thesis, for example directly mentioning alchemy vs shitcoins from the first phrase, then it would flow better. A thought occurred...the current astronomy/physics also assumes getting something (our Universe) from essentially 'nothing'? I read a very interesting theory recently about the theory that Universe's birth was at the same time as something you could call a 'negative' Universe (-Universe). In such case, together they are, indeed, 'nothing'. To me this sounds better than one-sided Universe from 'nothing'. |
|
|
|
|
Buddy is on a rampage, lol
Everybody else thinking: TGIF.
|
|
|
|
I think PlanB has showed some very interesting and often accurate analysis. I do agree that his rise to mythical predictor status was, like MasterLuc WAAAAAY overblown. But so is the way everyone now treats him like he is some giant failure has been. I remember the first interview I heard him on he said, something like "This model is amazing and super accurate over the last xyz period, but all models are only accurate until they break." And I think he often said that over time. I would also point out that his model has not broken yet. We really need more of this cycles time behind us to really make that conclusion. It seems HIGHLY likely that it will have failed during this cycle... but there are paths forward where it still retains it's accuracy. They just become less and less likely the further we go. AND to add some nuance I have always thought his model was quite 1 dimensional, and more about backfilling accuracy than something reliable for the future. All the acolytes are the ones responsible for the worship of this model. I always thought it was a kind of silly thing. Now his 100k by December proclamation. There he was 100% wrong. And that was a hubristic mess, that prediction. I wanted it to be true, as we all did, but that is just silly. Some of the other silly predictions were even worse. I still remember Matt Odell getting super drunk and ceiling "Bitcoin T.I.N.A." a bear. But Tina said he did not think BTC was going to go way up, but that it would probably pull back and go up to 6 digits later. His prediction in that regard has been right so far. (Odell irritates me with his "stay humble" bit. His definition of humble is not risking money on alts. My definition is speaking to others with respect in part, which he never really does) I honestly think that the right combination of fundamental evens like the ES conference, and an eventual decoupling of BTC from Nasdaq will drive the next bull. The question is WHEN does it go... PlanB is a stupid bull like me, and his prediction that "the bear market is almost over" is fairly bold. And if it IS true he *could* also still get the last laugh for the s2f model... Probably not... but I hope he's right  Bottom sure, but with the exception of 1 of those "bottoms" they all go sideways for several months before heading into a bull cycle. The idea that because the price levels out that it is suddenly the end of the bear market is ridiculous. I'm not versed in trading lingo, but generally a bear market is defined by falling prices, no? So when the bottom is in, you could argue that it's the end of a bear market. Problem is how to know, if the bottom is really in... Sometimes it really does not matter. In Jan 2015 the bottom was at $178 or so, but you could have bought it about 7 mo later at $210 with the bull truly starting around late September 2015. That was an almost perfect setup for DCAing for about 8 mo. BTW, huge reversal in SP500 (from EXACTLY -20%), Dow, etc today. Maybe the bounce would start sooner than later. |
|
|
|
So, he's trying to say the cycles are getting shorter? We are somewhere in late 2019 now according to that graph?  It is a nice chart/prediction, but it should be taken with a grain of salt..we could be there already (or were at 26.7K) or the bottom could be 20-30% lower. Not predicting it, but just saying that the graph allows for it (if 14M RSI goes to the same number as previously achieved in Dec 2018). When to buy? If you have cash, maybe DCA already, but if you already have a nice position, then you can simply hodl here. |
|
|
|
The S&P 500 is now at the same price level as it was on 01/03/2021.
They managed to wipe out an entire years' worth of stonk market gains in just 4.5 months.
That's almost nothing, really. Nikkei went 20 years backwards (over 14 years of slow declines; from 39K to 8K), then was in a 10 year flat (oscillating between 8K and 18K). Now in a bull since 2012 (8K to 26.7K). Imagine a 14 year long bear market. It probably won't be so long since US likes to "take" their recessions fast and furious, but the economy as a whole would need to be restructured because of the end of globalization (or a partial end?) during a period of probably high persistent inflation. Could it take 5-10 years? Sure. |
|
|
|
By the way, where is the "stable" in this coin? What a clusterfuck  Stablecoin algorithms seems like an implementation of the Martingale strategy but with any of the potential of winning removed. This is exactly what it was. To a t. But people are not learning the right lessons. Novogratz still trying to defend the damn idea. It is rare when I am glad for someone to lose tons of money. I hope he did. sorry, the guy took $355 mil profit in it during winter, so maybe he lost $350 mil recently on it (as per report of galaxy Digital losses), but big cap gains were already taken (so all that loss is basically a book entry). |
|
|
|
OT: A strange turn of fate: Guardian reports that Putin's youngest "official" daughter was traveling to Munich, Germany all the time because she was dating a guy who directed a ballet company there. His last name...wait for it...is Zelensky Of course, another one, but, still, what a coincidence. |
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
