.... CAPS ALL OVER THE PLACE... and lots of tadpoles
As soon as I see a post with random CAPS , and bloviating about quote "I have a LARGE respectful following who KNOW me very well and what I'm about" I'm like "oh gawd.... fucking spare me...."  GO BITCOIN  That's a nice looking tadpole you got there  |
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they seem fine to me... I was walking through a beach area with a bunch of young folks partying down - and sometimes I was overhearing some of their nonsense conversations, and it seems like they do and talk about a lot of similar dumb shit as I used to do and talk about when younger...
Of course, the technology seems to change some of the matters - but still it is easy enough to see that some of the folks are more awkward than others and some of the chicks are more scantily dressed than others... not that I was looking very closely.. oh my, is she even old enough to have that beer in her hands? same shit, no? vaping instead of smoking, but still some smoking going on too...
I still go to tons of concerts and the kids sit there like lumps and don't even get up, its a disgrace. classical music, maybe? otherwise, it used to be a high energy affair...haven't been in maybe 5-7 years, though. |
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@jjg-why being SO angry all the time?
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I prefer bi-chromatic TA (red and green), lol.
..maybe an occasional blue...
.."until we know it".
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Paper traders and MSM would have you believe bitcoin is just another asset class....its not.
I wish we would get an asset class valuation first (at least $10-15 tril aka $500-750K per) before having serious dibs on larger inspirations, which are more down the line (could be a decade), imho. |
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Am I the only one who still thinks PlanB's model is not only a still not invalidated, but indeed the longer we go below the line this cycle the more likely we spring up even higher to compensate during the current epoch? (Not saying we Will... But if we do...) I think many folks latched onto his somewhat conservative 100k by 12\21 prediction and when that didnt come true they declared his whole theory invalid. But it isn't. Yet. I don't even really subscribe to the model, and think it nearly certainly is invalidated in time. But it simply is not yet. If we rocket deep into 6 figures I wonder if people will admit they were wrong as quickly as they jumped to accuse him of that. We may get to see!  Yea, sure, albeit he was saying before that we should judge his hypothesis by an earlier time point than 2024. I am not sure what would be a falsification mechanism for his hypothesis? Looking back from 2025? Frankly, i don't even care much anymore and people seem to move on too. To me, we are transitioning out of the large influence of the four your cycles and, hopefully, switching on to a supercycle of usage (changing that param from 100mil to 1bil) in the next 4-5 years. The price should follow at least at the early and mid stage of the 'hockey stick'. |
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Hate to break it to you...we are in a bear market...or will be...of the likes this generation has never seen.
Can the 'system' take it? We are already about 10-11% down, but some fluffy techs are already down more than 50% and some large techs-20-40%. If stock market goes down another 30% or more, combined with high actual inflation and no interest on savings, it would be catastrophic, imho. How are we going to get out of that possible predicament? I have no idea. Of course, bitcoin is my core remediation strategy, but even that could be negated (or at least it is possible). |
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@jjg..i am still of the opinion of the $30-60K band.
Buy close to the bottom, sell (or sell calls) close to the top of this range (if you are a trader).
I am not trading bitcoin, though.
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Good catch..the're lots of super opinionated people around here.
So his reason to say negative things to me on is because I have been posting Bearish things earlier. Doesn't that shows my stand on something which I believe is going to happen? People don't even understand the word "Opinion". The discrimination is surreal and affects my mental health. This place is not OPEN for discussion, this place is just another thread where they want to hear only HOPIUM news for BTC. Sick. I believe you are partially correct. You have posted a wide range of things. Some very bearish. Any models predicting a low UNDER the last cycle top will be pushed back on. But you're right. This place is full of irrational bulls. I may be the worst. You are being picked on a lot. Sometimes for valid reasons. Sometimes not. But I think overall a little much. some people (like @jjg) always fly off the handle, harassing anyone with ANY opinion that is different from hers/his/its. then, they try to put their notion of YOUR opinion into your mouth. |
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These models seem like bullshit for me. If we really got the TOP in November 2021 for this 4years cycle (so only X3.5 of the 2017 ATH), why we should make more (X5 X6) as written in your models on the next one?
Chill the F out guys, the Model I posted is the one Toxic2040 posted the same day. You didn't told him that these models looks bullshit? I don't see any replies to him the way you said to me? I guess it's just the mentality of yours that everything ImThour post is bullshit. On the other hand, I don't care what you guys think. I can post whatever I want to post, press that Ignore if you can't take my bullshit. Stop cornering me or hating me for sharing something someone else already did without getting any hatred. Sick mentality people. Good catch..the're lots of super opinionated people around here. |
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Fast up is [almost] always an indication of the bear, not a bull.
Biggest BS of the year! All blowoff tops were actually parabolic rallies!  Where did you see a blowoff top in a day? the param for blowoff top is typically 100% in a MONTH (which is 3.3% a day, on average), FOLLOWING the long term slower rise beforehand (do you see this here somewhere?). Check your charts, buddy. besides, didn't it just reverse for like a 4th-5th time? |
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Beware of the fast moving markets.
Fast up is [almost] always an indication of the bear, not a bull.
I want to be optimistic, but this is the way bear market grinds you.
Even the fast pump in April of 2019 eventually reversed fully in March of 2020 (covid-dump), although I wouldn't mind a pop like that (it was from about $4K to $14K between april and june-july 2019). In our case a pop to 55k might be the equivalent.
Depends man. Stop being toxic.  If the people that bought don't sell / day trade. Then it will blow back up. toxic? maybe your shrooms, lol |
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Beware of the fast moving markets.
Fast up is [almost] always an indication of the bear, not a bull.
I want to be optimistic, but this is the way bear market grinds you.
Even the fast pump in April of 2019 eventually reversed fully in March of 2020 (covid-dump), although I wouldn't mind a pop like that (it was from about $4K to $14K between april and june-july 2019). In our case a pop to 55k might be the equivalent.
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Bitcoin and ModelsI have created 3 models using Power Law and DPC Model whose data was provided to me by @DeFi_initiate. This below chart contains the prediction of all these models (2021-2026):1. Power Law 2. DPC Model 3. AVGPD - Average of Power Law and DPC Model 4. AVGD2 - Average of DPC Model and AVGPD 5. AVGALL - Average of Power Law, DPC Model, AVGPD and AVGD2. Lowest BTC Price by All these Models for 2022-2026:Power Law: $35,099 DPC: $18,334 AVGPD: $33,123 AVGD2: $25,944 AVGALL: $31,382 Highest BTC Price by All these Models for 2022-2026:Power Law: $217,776 DPC: $389,245 AVGPD: $267,594 AVGD2: $328,420 AVGALL: $282,801  These models seem like bullshit for me. If we really got the TOP in November 2021 for this 4years cycle (so only X3.5 of the 2017 ATH), why we should make more (X5 X6) as written in your models on the next one? Look like just another casino game prediction. Not necessarily. If 69K is/was THE top, it is still more than 20X from the bottom (X22.25 for accuracy). Therefore, if the bottom was (or would be in case of a double bottom) 29K (roughly), then even a half of prior rise (from the bottom) is 11.1X or $321K TL;DR It's possible if you count from the bottom, not from the top. |
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Bitcoin and ModelsI have created 3 models using Power Law and DPC Model whose data was provided to me by @DeFi_initiate. This below chart contains the prediction of all these models (2021-2026):1. Power Law 2. DPC Model 3. AVGPD - Average of Power Law and DPC Model 4. AVGD2 - Average of DPC Model and AVGPD 5. AVGALL - Average of Power Law, DPC Model, AVGPD and AVGD2. Lowest BTC Price by All these Models for 2022-2026:Power Law: $35,099 DPC: $18,334 AVGPD: $33,123 AVGD2: $25,944 AVGALL: $31,382 Highest BTC Price by All these Models for 2022-2026:Power Law: $217,776 DPC: $389,245 AVGPD: $267,594 AVGD2: $328,420 AVGALL: $282,801 That's nice. It looks like there will be a great opportunity to BTFD on 01/01/2023. Got to make sure I load Kraken with a good amount of funny money (a.k.a. fiat) before then. sometimes the year starts with a "fake" move in the opposite direction, like in Jan 2015. js |
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Bitcoin checking its daily To-Do list since Dec-2020  It is kind of funny that it does nothing for more than a year, then boom-bam...late 2014-Oct 2015 was the exact same behavior and even a tighter range. Anybody remember that $225-275 stuff? lol |
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I'm not making a moral argument, or saying we should be living in huts or anything like that. I'm taking a long haul flight across the Atlantic in ten days to vacation in the Caribbean (a certain socialist island...). I just think as we focus more and more on reducing emissions, POW cryptos will become a target, as well as other excessive emitters of CO2. Flying serves a purpose, whereas for most people cryptos don't. I even think it could be an existential threat to Bitcoin.
There is absolutely NO civilizationional purpose for you to haul your ass across the globe for a vacation, none whatsoever. It's just your whim and civilization obliges (for now). EU 'greens' should restrain themselves from air traveling first and foremost or travel by dirigibles. Case closed. |
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Personally I'm in favor of BTC moving to POS or something else to reduce its energy use. Maybe something like masternodes where you would need 1 BTC by masternode, a bit like ETH 2.0
A lot of thought needs to go into it of course, the security of the protocol must be preserved.
And the transition would be over something like 5 years so that miners can recoup their investment.
I'm well aware of the difficulty in getting consensus so that BTC can evolve, and this is only my opinion, I have no coding skills to contribute, I have stopped maths long ago after an overdose of it in university...
How we get there, I don't know, but it would be a good outcome. I could imagine small coiners joining up to invest in a node, so that even poor countries can participate. And that would leave one less reason for government crackdowns, of course.
I don't see how it is possible, period. That said, I remember seeing a table where btc energy use is infinitesimally lower in CO2 release than usage of airplanes. Electricity use does not mean something 'bad" since EV use electricity-DUH! ESG crowd energy better spend there. A totally made-up problem. |
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