the noon wall report at 1:11pm comparative analysis and macro economic structures note the different inflection rates of the MACD and RSI indicators dead cat bounce DJI D  vs the llama bounce BTC D  one graph is a free market, another-first, a scare, then artificial money printing pump. which one is which? /s Continuation? |
|
|
|
Today, Marty Bent released his 2 hour+ Tales from the Crypt podcast interview with Paul London, and London makes some good points regarding how both the motivations of Russia and the likely outcome of the USA's seeming heavy-handed-ness with financial sanctions may end up causing some acceleration of the dollar demise that comes faster than anticipated. London also describes that some of Russia's most recent missile technology developments that the USA denies , but ends up painting the USA in pretty handicapped position when it comes to playing any kind of nuclear card or any kind of direct-combat game with Russia. Of course, since this is a Tales from the Crypt podcast there ends up being wee bit of a bitcoin angle to the discussion (at the end), even though London does not seems to be very bullish ab out bitcoin's role or likely fate. London seems to have some beliefs that governments have an ability to regulate Bitcoin into oblivion, so maybe London's current errors in thinking causes him to be more of a pre-coiner rather than a no-coiner? perhaps? perhaps? Your linkey is brokey.  dis works https://overcast.fm/+KiHpcj93si think/hope the main talking dude is wrong in his assessment of their capabilities. probably just scaremongering, imho. Timestamp? 56:30-1:02:00 ...but I think that he is exaggerating it, or least I hope. I am a baby of the relatively stable MAD era, can't really think of the alternatives. |
|
|
|
Today, Marty Bent released his 2 hour+ Tales from the Crypt podcast interview with Paul London, and London makes some good points regarding how both the motivations of Russia and the likely outcome of the USA's seeming heavy-handed-ness with financial sanctions may end up causing some acceleration of the dollar demise that comes faster than anticipated. London also describes that some of Russia's most recent missile technology developments that the USA denies , but ends up painting the USA in pretty handicapped position when it comes to playing any kind of nuclear card or any kind of direct-combat game with Russia. Of course, since this is a Tales from the Crypt podcast there ends up being wee bit of a bitcoin angle to the discussion (at the end), even though London does not seems to be very bullish ab out bitcoin's role or likely fate. London seems to have some beliefs that governments have an ability to regulate Bitcoin into oblivion, so maybe London's current errors in thinking causes him to be more of a pre-coiner rather than a no-coiner? perhaps? perhaps? Your linkey is brokey. dis works https://overcast.fm/+KiHpcj93si think/hope the main talking dude is wrong in his assessment of their capabilities. probably just scaremongering, imho. |
|
|
|
Do we think China is starting to have any second thoughts about the carpe diem they might have been tempted by?
I gotta admit. I have always been afraid that Hyperbitcoinization would be accompanied by geopolitical upheaval and possibly war.
Chicken? Egg?
It's not turning out really how I had expected, really.
ditto |
|
|
|
|
One interesting conclusion from this is that fiat money really has no value if someone can switch your money/assets off any time they want (even with justification).
You can breathe air and drink water that you have around you, but you cannot use money, which is an essential life commodity.
Interestingly, when on a gold standard, gold was universal currency, even for enemies.
Not sure what to make of it, but it is now clear that China realistically has no money (apart from their gold reserves, probably).
I am not prepared to say that bitcoin is such currency yet, maybe not due to low (currently) acceptance.
|
|
|
|
Seeing scattered early reports that they are going forward with locking Russian banks out of Swift.
Steady as she goes.
goes where? to a bigger war? We should have pushed hard for negotiations, instead, even now, before the severity of this goes to something incomprehensible with very large casualties. Additionally, if you have a large fine, levy or reparations applied to Russia, how are you going to get paid? This will only make them completely belligerent and not prone to any negotiations. Before, they said that it (SWIFT disconnect) would be considered as a declaration of war. Not sure what to make of such statement made in the past, we shall see now how it develops. Shortly after SWIFT removal, I would be watching for the signs of the general mobilization there, and if it happens, then SWHTF. |
|
|
|
Nobody here 'really' knows what is the situation in Ukraine, probably. I watched sky news, looked at the websites and all I can find, basically, is that "the fight continues". Of course, it is all quite terrible. Here is an interesting perspective of where this is probably going, but with HUGE caveats: https://www.newsweek.com/2022/03/11/putin-has-never-lost-war-here-how-hell-win-ukraine-1682878.htmlThe longer it continues, the higher is the probability that it won't stop there. Are we in 1938? A am not sure. |
|
|
|
Russia is a communist shithole, every (political) opposition, activists and journalists are geting killed and/ore arrested.
Remember Alexei Navalny (a good Russian), which Putin tried to kill but survived in Europe? When he came back at home he was immediately arrested with years of prison time which means Russian justice system is rotten to the bone.
Even Memorial Human Rights Center is banned...you know...communism and human rights does not go hand-in-hand.
You got your metaphors all wrong. Putin is absolutely not a commie. He is an ardent autocrat (authoritarian) with russian nationalist tendencies to boot. There is not a sliver of communist ideology in his proclamations. In fact, he always besmirch Lenin (who was an 'internationalist' and commie #1) in his speeches as well. Watch his speech made before the invasion if you want. This is a critical distinction, but does not make him any better, of course. TL;DR Putin=authoritarian nationalist In January 2016 Putin publicly criticized Lenin. But he didn’t criticize Lenin for being a communist. He criticized Lenin for “providing regions with autonomy.” By doing this, Lenin “planted an atomic bomb under the building that is called Russia and which would later explode.” This explosion took place in 1991 and led to the breakup of the Soviet Union. Putin was not criticizing Lenin’s communist ideas. He was criticizing Lenin for causing the breakup of the Soviet Union. opinions can differ, but here is how Wikipedia describes communism: "Communism (from Latin communis, 'common, universal') is a philosophical, social, political, and economic ideology and movement whose goal is the establishment of a communist society, namely a socioeconomic order structured upon the ideas of common ownership of the means of production and the absence of social classes." Nothing of this fits, unless you call anybody from that area a communist, like a majority might still do (long memories). You can call Vlad an imperial-builder or a tzarist (maybe he even want to eventually declare himself a tzar, I give it 50:50), but he ain't a communist. No siree. Drudge even posts that he wants to 'rebuild' the Christendom-check it out. I seriously doubt the latter, but he DOES want to rebuild something like a former Russian empire. That's a given. |
|
|
|
Russia is a communist shithole, every (political) opposition, activists and journalists are geting killed and/ore arrested.
Remember Alexei Navalny (a good Russian), which Putin tried to kill but survived in Europe? When he came back at home he was immediately arrested with years of prison time which means Russian justice system is rotten to the bone.
Even Memorial Human Rights Center is banned...you know...communism and human rights does not go hand-in-hand.
You got your metaphors all wrong. Putin is absolutely not a commie. He is an ardent autocrat (authoritarian) with russian nationalist tendencies to boot. There is not a sliver of communist ideology in his proclamations. In fact, he always besmirch Lenin (who was an 'internationalist' and commie #1) in his speeches as well. Watch his speech made before the invasion if you want. This is a critical distinction, but does not make him any better, of course. TL;DR Putin=authoritarian nationalist |
|
|
|
|
@jjg...please, develop some reading comprehension skills...i am sad that bitcoin still goes down "first" (not like gold, for example), but it recovers among the "first" as well, that was a gist of my post. You can be f-g irritated or not, I don't give a damn, pal.
It seems that investment populace still does not fully believe in a 'store of value' proposition, but i have one better: 'a hedge against insane policies', but this one might be controversial and apply only to the 'third world', albeit Canada showed something new recently.
|
|
|
|
|
why bitcoin is the weakest link among stocks, etc., though?
idk
it surely goes down fast at any sign of trouble....then recovers fast, of course.
|
|
|
|
Russia is Blitzkrieg'ing ALL of Ukraine's major cities. I changed my mind on Putin, he is kind of a dick. (even though WW3 is the result of the USA meddling in foreign countries all these years for their own national interests and pushing Russia into a corner)
Taiwan will be soon taken by China, mark my words.
Looks like WW3. Not even joking.
hopefully, not, but who knows. |
|
|
|
Good time to finally dump that gold and pick up bitcoin on sale.
man, that gold thing is truly old school...a hunk of metal. |
|
|
|
|
bitcoin always goes down first....because it trades 24/7.
|
|
|
|
Don't forget to make a wish at 22:22 tonight...obviously many regions had passed it already. Apparently, making a wish at exactly this time means something. Wish well |
|
|
|
This massive downward pressure is something else.
Gut feeling indicates possible bigtime recovery to new ATH's by late March/Apr.
Crossing fingers.
An interesting opinion...out of the mainstream, but would be super cool if it happens. |
|
|
|
#LNMETA
Closed all my channels. Shutting it down.
Given everything going on in my life, managing a LN node is more negative, parasitic energy that has complicated my life beyond any rational measure.
I need to step away, for my own mental health and sanity.
There is no bot that can balance the channels? I am not touching this until I either retire or there is such bot/AI-lite, whatever. |
|
|
|
|
Here is some 'dubious speculation' as Ben Cowen calls it:
In 2018 we first moved to an approx $6.2K plateau (from the $19.78K peak), which was about 68.65% decline from the top.
Then, we precipitously declined another 50% to bottom out at $3.1K.
This time, we did not have a blow-off top.
Assuming that btc decline to $42K plateau is Stage 1 (39% decline instead of 68.65% decline in the prior cycle), then, adjusting Stage 2 for the magnitude of Stage 1 decline, gives me approx 25% decline to about 30K as a worst case scenario. That said, we already traveled to 30K and even slightly lower, suggesting that we are already in a long term consolidation. Down to 30K is possible, but, unless something goes horribly wrong, it should be it.
Not going to speculate on upside because there is basically no limit now that we are mostly out of 4 year cycle dominance and into, hopefully, usage dominance.
|
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
