yeah, this year smallish run-up is meme-less (apart from laser eyes), but I still enjoy polkka, though.
I am sure that if we would pop to 100K or above, there would be new memes.

or this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CAyWN9ba9J8

I think that everyone should ponder this question: why this cycle so far did not pan out as expected by almost EVERYBODY?
To some it might mean that the exponential boom-bust cycles are over.

To me it means that bitcoin is in transition: it has to go over the technological chasm from the early adopters to early majority.
The volatility in that is less than during "innovators" and "early adopters" stages, but still significant with periodic setbacks.

I am perfectly fine if the four year cycles are mostly gone and we are simply in a price discovery mode.
I expect the prices much higher eventually, but short term the price seems chaotic (does not really follow any prior predictions).
It zigs when it was "supposed" to zag, etc. This 'perversion' actually started in 2019, but most people dismissed it as a one-off aberration.

Remember "the fractal" idea? It fit for a while. All TA guys seem to be befuddled if not outright 'amused' by the current situation.
Albeit, we have no coherent theory of what to expect since S2F is currently on the brink...barely hugging the lower grey band.
planB did not throw in the towel yet, but it is getting close, unfortunately.
https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1472241754837557256

It is the correct term, but unicorn is also a correct term. I was simply saying that it almost never happens.
IMHO, people are still counting on the swoosh back up in bitcoin, but we might have a flat before this.

BTW, TA may rarely predict something, it is almost always post factum.
However, the same could be said about the fundamental analysis, which often misses something "fundamental' and the results are skewed.
Tons of people were "fundamentally" bearish on Amazon from 2000 to 2015, but they were wrong because market anticipated large current earnings and almost unshakable market position of that company. Market was using advanced algebra when some or even most analysts were following simple arithmetic.

Talking about GPUs..I wanted to build a new PC..got everything, apart from the screwy GPU, which is nowhere to be found for a "normal" price.
There is no point of paying triple price, because for that price you can almost get the whole PC with the "offending" 3080 in it..but I just wanted the card. No can do, for more than a year already.

Sorry, there are no triple tops or triple bottoms...with >90% probability.

When I just started driving, I bought an old car from a guy for $300, lol. He just wanted to get rid of it.
I drove it for a year, then got into a minor accident and after that the car started using one jug of oil per grocery trip a few miles away.
Needless to say that I had to sent it out to the junkyard, but felt bad about it...of course, it was the first that I actually owned.
Memories...

Naah, Ben told Jenny that he has another flask in his back pocket..hence the stony face (hers) and his smirk.

4-5 buildings, 400-500 apartments, still a rarity..before Musk would start selling apartments on Mars, lol.
Not using bought apartments/houses is nothing new, though, London, Paris, Vancouver, Toronto, Singapore, etc., all have it and fighting back with unused property taxes.
Personally, I would love to have an apt in NY, preferably Manhattan, been there a lot during my thirties, loved it back then. London is very interesting too.

Re bitcoin...will someone post a man with a stick pic, please...not much action, it seems.

maybe..the vibe from a promoter/re agent was that this is like owning a Picasso-something very unique and there are only about 400-500 apt total in skyscrapers like this (in NY).

@AlcoHoDL post was legit-basically grievance for a family member, my condolencies.

However, i do think that COVID discussion should be mostly on Bob's thread.
A little here is OK, but not if it dominates.
Personally, i almost never post on this topic (maybe to clarify something biological) and I LIKE the idea of neutrality as I also don't like to discuss the political leanings per se.
It is also true that nothing, apart from bitcoin, unites the members, so we should be focused on bitcoin and connecting topics, imho.
Politics would never be a consensus here and no expectation of polite discourse on that.

Yes and yes. I also read this book. A very nice, but VERY academic study. I managed to finish it..with some effort.
Yes, being in the capital/investor class with assets is the only way to beat inflation. Wages would not cut it. Most of my colleagues are counting on pension and or/working until mid seventies.
I don't have a heart to tell them them that in a high inflation environment pensions (and we have those without inflation compensation) are doomed. Even Social Security is better (it has COL, standing for the cost of living adjustment).

I did not sell any btc to increase spending, but had to make some moves in a couple of unnamed alts that had obscene gains in 2021.
House remodeling is expensive.
My bitcoin stash keeps accumulating (slowly) due to mining rewards.

For those of you who like viewing some expensive RE (I have to say that the buildings themselves are amazing from the engineering perspective), check out this, although this is probably out of reach for almost everyone here...but in 10 years...who knows:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wehsz38P74g

So true, I am still working and we had measly 4-5% increase (in total) in the last three years and in Texas you can't even strike for my current profession.
No bargaining of any sort.
Inflation-10.6% (official), essentially a 5-6% cut, minimally.
If not for bitcoin, etc., belt tightening would have happened.

By the looks of it, and with some perky shitcoins acting up (driven by their corporate hedge fund sponsors), the only way to flush them out is a bearish period.
If bitcoin will be flat to up, we are going to lose dominance, which is bad starting at 40-41% now.
Beforehand, we never went below 36%.
Maybe it means that we about to outperform, but by the look of a few coins with a concentrated funds position, it seems less likely, unless something truly positive happens.
Gary G. was instrumental in curtailing our run so far, it seems, with no-spot-ETF situation.

Yes, they cannot prevent collapse, but they react very quickly now-see the comparison between the speed of 2007/08 response and 2020.
In 2020 they turned it around fairly quickly.

Yes, I agree that it is possible.
However, there is a thought out there that 2008 experience had informed the policy makers that you CANNOT collapse the collateral layer (stocks, bonds, RE) without a danger that the whole thing utterly collapses. Yes, maybe P/E of 30 is weird, but it is less weird when money is being debased at 20% (at least) rate because in this situation good stock would have a very high rate of earnings growth (in nominal $$). Watch the graphs of AAPL, MSFT, AMZN on a long term chart and especially since 2012-2013. It is a clear exponent, driven at least in part by currency debasement.

Short term, we are in a clear downtrend, midterm-about flat, longer term-still uptrend.
In this view btc would flatten up on the short term chart before surging higher and ultimately produce a longer cycle, terminating somewhere in Q1-Q2 2022.

An alternative, worse view, would be that we are in a longer term flat similar to the one we saw in 2018 at around 6k.
This view would suggest that we would stay relatively flat for a while before a sharp plunge, which would start the long term bull.

Personally, my opinion is neither of the two views above.

To re-iterate, I think that we bottomed for this cycle in June and the secondary top was a simple reaction to a premature top (in April) caused by China shenanigans.
Without China, we were about to go exponential in April (all signs were there) and should have finished the cycle by May or June at the latest.
Instead, we got a double hump with bull energy spent between two peaks instead of one.
Right now-we are early in the NEXT cycle, imho.
Flat city.

What's a PA investor-the one from Pennsylvania?
I know PE (private equity), don't know PA, unless it is, indeed, the state..

You might disagree with his focus (albeit not completely) on alts, but this is overall a very decent guy (Tyler aka Chico Crypto), imho.
Burned out.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0_FWxlKRYBc
It's sad to see that being under stress of producing content daily did something quite bad for his mental state.
A very honest, jarring video.
Don't get the "game" get to you.

Getting off a daily grind in bitcoin and kind of moving to a long term picture has been very good for me this cycle vs 2017-2018-first excitement, then crash, pins and needles.