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61  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: March 29, 2014, 09:30:25 PM


breakdown.

triangles have a tendency to breakout into larger triangles, forming a fractal pattern of self-similar nested triangles. proper breakouts need to be accompanied by large volume to be confirmed. be patient Wink
62  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis never ends on: March 29, 2014, 09:28:29 PM
Log scale chart of complete bitstamp USD history.
...
Why might the latest pennant be such a different beast to the previous ones?

well, we're currently resting on the bottom support in your figure. wouldn't this model be falsified if we broke below?

I guess so, falsification being proportional to the break-below amount.

It would also be falsified if it broke-above too much.

falsification tends to be a binary option. the pennant shape relies on a moving or flat support which cannot be violated except by known outliers (e.g. 135 BTCUSD data from MtGox last month). if this support is broken, then the pennant model is falsified.

in other words, the model you've presented suggests that this is a market bottom. however, if we move below the last low, this model will be falsified.
63  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 29, 2014, 09:22:18 PM
How did the price become so darn stable after being so darn unstable?

it's called a triangle consolidation pattern. but don't worry, we're just about to break out Wink

up or down in your opinion?

i think it's likely that we'll at least retest the last low before moving anywhere else. the recent break under the $530 support is a significant bear signal to me.
64  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 29, 2014, 09:15:25 PM
How did the price become so darn stable after being so darn unstable?

it's called a triangle consolidation pattern. but don't worry, we're just about to break out Wink
65  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis never ends on: March 29, 2014, 09:11:42 PM
it's interesting to see trading sites and others say that "pattern X is generally bullish/bearish" as if they were citing a statistical study that showed this result >50% of the time. triangle continuation patterns are only continuation patterns until they break counter-trend Wink

from my own work in Bitcoin, it seems that these patterns are very sensitive to their price environments (that is if they occurred within an uptrend or dowtrend; near, below, or above the previous high/low; and if the previous movement pushed the price into overbought or oversold territory).

once the environment has been factored in, i think that there is something to these patterns having a consistent "context-sensitive" bias. but it is ridiculous to make a blanket statement about them, not only because of context-sensitivity but also because i imagine the behavior is different in different markets (stocks vs Bitcoin).

--arepo

Interestingly enough, the Kirkpatrick/Dahlquist TA book has a (smallish) section on empirical studies that were done about patterns. I'll have to look up the details, but the continuation patterns flag and pennant seemed by far the most reliable ones *however* they were (IIRC) all short to midterm patterns, i.e. way shorter duration than what was proposed above (spanning from December to now).

thanks for the reference. is this the book you're talking about?
66  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis never ends on: March 29, 2014, 09:09:34 PM
Log scale chart of complete bitstamp USD history.



Why might the latest pennant be such a different beast to the previous ones?

well, we're currently resting on the bottom support in your figure. wouldn't this model be falsified if we broke below?
67  Economy / Speculation / Re: I'm All In - Sold My House! on: March 29, 2014, 08:20:33 PM
You are for just 15 days, lost two rooms of your hous.

Aren't you going to support this with the same pointless graph you've posted to every other thread in the universe?

i LOL'ed hard Cheesy
68  Economy / Speculation / Re: Who sold below $550? The $400 bottom is in LOL!!!! on: March 29, 2014, 08:17:41 PM
If you not lie, just give me link of your chart. http:............................   Huh
My link is here: http://bitcoinity.org/markets/bitstamp/USD
where is your ?

here's the log chart i used to draw on top of:

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#tgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzl

This is not the same chart that you have set before 15 minuts , they are two totally different charts !!!
And please turn of LOG scala at this a new chart !

Now we see that you're making chart in photoshop how it suits you.

0/10 troll harder

at this point i HOPE you're trolling, because the sheer idiocy involved in this exchange is upsetting.
69  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis never ends on: March 29, 2014, 08:14:32 PM
it's interesting to see trading sites and others say that "pattern X is generally bullish/bearish" as if they were citing a statistical study that showed this result >50% of the time. triangle continuation patterns are only continuation patterns until they break counter-trend Wink

from my own work in Bitcoin, it seems that these patterns are very sensitive to their price environments (that is if they occurred within an uptrend or dowtrend; near, below, or above the previous high/low; and if the previous movement pushed the price into overbought or oversold territory).

once the environment has been factored in, i think that there is something to these patterns having a consistent "context-sensitive" bias. but it is ridiculous to make a blanket statement about them, not only because of context-sensitivity but also because i imagine the behavior is different in different markets (stocks vs Bitcoin).

--arepo
70  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 29, 2014, 08:05:11 PM
bid depth on stamp in the $400-$500 region seems to have shrunk considerably in the last 24 hours.
71  Economy / Speculation / Re: The BIG picture, Price Prediction Chart. on: March 29, 2014, 07:52:36 PM
Why is the 2011 bubble missing on your chart?

Maybe it doesn't fit the channel... Grin

That's the general problem with TA: Selective perception of a few trends and patterns while in reality there are myriads of possible trends and patterns.

and this is the general problem with people like you: selective defeatism of analysis is just as dangerous of a bias.

the real answer is that the 2011 bubble is not included in the Bitstamp all-time data, and unfortunately, Gox data has been rendered incomplete on the other end of the timescale Tongue

good observation, John999.

--arepo
72  Economy / Speculation / Re: Who sold below $550? The $400 bottom is in LOL!!!! on: March 29, 2014, 07:28:35 PM

igorr, you filthy troll

Indeed.

log scale is valid precisely because of the trend that g4c pointed out.
 

Did I misunderstand your comment about bearish downward flags and having already broken out, made in response to one of the other 10,000 places igorr has pasted his very convincing chart of arbitrary lines and colours?

haha not quite. i was responding to the idea that the descending triangle pattern was a "BULLISH FLAG". that was a purely technical consideration. also, it does seem like we have already broken out to the downside. it remains to be seen, however, whether or not this will decisively invalidate the all-time exponential growth trend as pictured in g4c's image.

time-scales are very important Wink
73  Economy / Speculation / Re: Who sold below $550? The $400 bottom is in LOL!!!! on: March 29, 2014, 07:24:10 PM
igorr, you filthy troll, log scale is valid precisely because of the trend that g4c pointed out.

He post fake picture,

it's the same damned data, and you know it, give it up.
74  Economy / Speculation / Re: Who sold below $550? The $400 bottom is in LOL!!!! on: March 29, 2014, 07:18:15 PM
LOG scale mask real condition,

igorr, you filthy troll, log scale is valid precisely because of the trend that g4c pointed out.
75  Economy / Speculation / Re: $473 on bitstamp? WTH! on: March 29, 2014, 07:13:07 PM
What a nice bullish flag

descending triangles are more bearish than symmetrical triangles and ascending triangles. also, by my count, we've already broken down out of it.
76  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 29, 2014, 07:00:37 PM
one thing that ive rarely seen come up in solar power conversations is the fact that you are capturing a huge fraction of the solar energy onto the black panel, rather then reflecting it back into the air/space like if it hit water or hit green foliage. Solar Panels effectively act like blacktop pavement in that regard.

MO, the future is wave power and nuclear.

are you implying that this is problematic because of the "heat island" effect? blacktops heat up because the solar energy is absorbed because of the color and must be dissipated in some form -- that form is heat. solar panels absorb the same energy but effectively convert it into electricity. hence, solar panels would not act like blacktops because of the principle of energy conservation.

--arepo
77  Economy / Speculation / Re: Smart to sell at a loss in anticipation? on: March 29, 2014, 05:38:38 AM
It's safer to hold now, and buy more if it hits $400.

True, there is a whole bunch of good news all over the place.

this is very reassuring Tongue
78  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: March 28, 2014, 07:59:09 PM
This statement is false.

+1 Wink
79  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: March 28, 2014, 07:58:35 PM
Yeah, but societies are becoming less and less easily manipulated with the information age. However, in parts of the world where they are cut off propaganda works.

contrarily, in a world where information dissemination is easier and cheaper than ever before, but a small few control the spigot, propaganda is that much more powerful.

proprietized media like TV is an excellent example of this. a cabal of wealthy movie producers, news channel operators, and advertising giants control the majority of the content that is gluttonously spewed into the the minds of millions daily, reinforcing ideological precedents that perpetuate class, race, gender, and other inequalities, and marginalizing radical ideologies by controlling the ratios of exposure, and by negative framing.

the internet may be a step in the right direction, but until it fully supplants TV as the king of media dissemination, and unless the tactics used by interested parties like JTRIG and the NSA that are destructive to open discourse are successfully combated, the information age will be synonymous with the age of propaganda.

--arepo
80  Economy / Speculation / Arepo's Weekly Newsletter Discussion and Analysis -- UPDATE on: March 28, 2014, 07:37:51 PM
The short-term bullish interpretations from page 13 of this week's issue correctly forecast the bullish movement up to the mid-term resistance, but alas, it was a bull-trap!

When we broke under the $530 support, based on FIGURE 1 from this week's newsletter, we broke out of the triangle consolidation pattern we had been tracking for most of this month, and referring to page 15, "CONTINGENCIES", this was a mid-term bearish signal, forecasting the further capitulation down to the $470 low.

so let's take a look at what's happened since:

---
2-hour scale


http://i.imgur.com/Uy8gfxt.png

---

on this scale, we see a sharp rebound and a symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern, threatening to break downside.

if we take a look at the 1-day scale of the past 5 months, we can see this pattern in the historical data, as well:


http://i.imgur.com/PuzFCKc.png

as we can see, the symmetrical triangle pattern forming at a significant height above the low (WHITE) is more bearish than the flat-topped triangle pattern in the same price environment (YELLOW).

so we have three possible scenarios:

scenario a: a bullish breakout of the current consolidation pattern, reaching the resistance at $530 -- least likely.

scenario b: a bearish breakout of the current consolidation pattern, reaching the support at $470 -- most likely.

scenario c: a bearish breakout of the current consolidation pattern, moving below the last low at $470 and reaching a new low, higher than the base support at $400 -- less likely.

scenario b corresponds to a fractal breakout into the larger flat-bottomed consolidation model on the 4-hour scale that i expect needs to be traced out before we see lower lows:

---
4-hour scale


http://i.imgur.com/VgfLTKU.png

---

the implications of FIGURE 1 being decisively falsified will be explored in depth in next week's newsletter! feel free to post more specific questions below and i will explore the short-term situation in greater detail.

--arepo

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