triangles have a tendency to breakout into larger triangles, forming a fractal pattern of self-similar nested triangles. proper breakouts need to be accompanied by large volume to be confirmed. be patient

falsification tends to be a binary option. the pennant shape relies on a moving or flat support which cannot be violated except by known outliers (e.g. 135 BTCUSD data from MtGox last month). if this support is broken, then the pennant model is falsified.

in other words, the model you've presented suggests that this is a market bottom. however, if we move below the last low, this model will be falsified.

i think it's likely that we'll at least retest the last low before moving anywhere else. the recent break under the $530 support is a significant bear signal to me.

it's called a triangle consolidation pattern. but don't worry, we're just about to break out

thanks for the reference. is this the book you're talking about?

well, we're currently resting on the bottom support in your figure. wouldn't this model be falsified if we broke below?

i LOL'ed hard

0/10 troll harder

at this point i HOPE you're trolling, because the sheer idiocy involved in this exchange is upsetting.

it's interesting to see trading sites and others say that "pattern X is generally bullish/bearish" as if they were citing a statistical study that showed this result >50% of the time. triangle continuation patterns are only continuation patterns until they break counter-trend

from my own work in Bitcoin, it seems that these patterns are very sensitive to their price environments (that is if they occurred within an uptrend or dowtrend; near, below, or above the previous high/low; and if the previous movement pushed the price into overbought or oversold territory).

once the environment has been factored in, i think that there is something to these patterns having a consistent "context-sensitive" bias. but it is ridiculous to make a blanket statement about them, not only because of context-sensitivity but also because i imagine the behavior is different in different markets (stocks vs Bitcoin).

--arepo

bid depth on stamp in the $400-$500 region seems to have shrunk considerably in the last 24 hours.

and this is the general problem with people like you: selective defeatism of analysis is just as dangerous of a bias.

the real answer is that the 2011 bubble is not included in the Bitstamp all-time data, and unfortunately, Gox data has been rendered incomplete on the other end of the timescale

good observation, John999.

--arepo

haha not quite. i was responding to the idea that the descending triangle pattern was a "BULLISH FLAG". that was a purely technical consideration. also, it does seem like we have already broken out to the downside. it remains to be seen, however, whether or not this will decisively invalidate the all-time exponential growth trend as pictured in g4c's image.

time-scales are very important

it's the same damned data, and you know it, give it up.

igorr, you filthy troll, log scale is valid precisely because of the trend that g4c pointed out.

descending triangles are more bearish than symmetrical triangles and ascending triangles. also, by my count, we've already broken down out of it.

are you implying that this is problematic because of the "heat island" effect? blacktops heat up because the solar energy is absorbed because of the color and must be dissipated in some form -- that form is heat. solar panels absorb the same energy but effectively convert it into electricity. hence, solar panels would not act like blacktops because of the principle of energy conservation.

--arepo

this is very reassuring

+1

contrarily, in a world where information dissemination is easier and cheaper than ever before, but a small few control the spigot, propaganda is that much more powerful.

proprietized media like TV is an excellent example of this. a cabal of wealthy movie producers, news channel operators, and advertising giants control the majority of the content that is gluttonously spewed into the the minds of millions daily, reinforcing ideological precedents that perpetuate class, race, gender, and other inequalities, and marginalizing radical ideologies by controlling the ratios of exposure, and by negative framing.

the internet may be a step in the right direction, but until it fully supplants TV as the king of media dissemination, and unless the tactics used by interested parties like JTRIG and the NSA that are destructive to open discourse are successfully combated, the information age will be synonymous with the age of propaganda.

--arepo

The short-term bullish interpretations from page 13 of this week's issue correctly forecast the bullish movement up to the mid-term resistance, but alas, it was a bull-trap!

When we broke under the $530 support, based on FIGURE 1 from this week's newsletter, we broke out of the triangle consolidation pattern we had been tracking for most of this month, and referring to page 15, "CONTINGENCIES", this was a mid-term bearish signal, forecasting the further capitulation down to the $470 low.

so let's take a look at what's happened since:

---
2-hour scale


https://i.imgur.com/Uy8gfxt.png

---

on this scale, we see a sharp rebound and a symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern, threatening to break downside.

if we take a look at the 1-day scale of the past 5 months, we can see this pattern in the historical data, as well:


https://i.imgur.com/PuzFCKc.png

as we can see, the symmetrical triangle pattern forming at a significant height above the low (WHITE) is more bearish than the flat-topped triangle pattern in the same price environment (YELLOW).

so we have three possible scenarios:

scenario a: a bullish breakout of the current consolidation pattern, reaching the resistance at $530 -- least likely.

scenario b: a bearish breakout of the current consolidation pattern, reaching the support at $470 -- most likely.

scenario c: a bearish breakout of the current consolidation pattern, moving below the last low at $470 and reaching a new low, higher than the base support at $400 -- less likely.

scenario b corresponds to a fractal breakout into the larger flat-bottomed consolidation model on the 4-hour scale that i expect needs to be traced out before we see lower lows:

---
4-hour scale


https://i.imgur.com/VgfLTKU.png

---

the implications of FIGURE 1 being decisively falsified will be explored in depth in next week's newsletter! feel free to post more specific questions below and i will explore the short-term situation in greater detail.

--arepo