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201  Economy / Speculation / Re: Introducing Arepo's Weekly Newsletter on: March 09, 2014, 03:02:32 PM
good to see you back arepo man!

I've been lookin forward to sending you a little donation - your last set of analyses from around the turn of the year helped inform some of my trading decisions and aided me in keeping my patience in check before buying back in with the last of my fiat. Luckily rpetila's thread kept me further in check in your absence.

will pm you now

thanks! Smiley it's great to hear the work i was publishing in January was helpful to you.


as for the price, we saw a nice bounce off of the support around $600, as detailed in my previous post. again, i don't expect too much action during the weekend.

also, today is the last day before the launch of the newsletter, so if you don't want to miss out on the outline for this week, don't hesitate to sign up! this week's issue is available for 0.025 BTC. larger subscriptions are priced in the OP. check it out!

202  Economy / Speculation / Re: Introducing Arepo's Weekly Newsletter on: March 07, 2014, 03:21:39 PM
Good morning all! i hope everyone is enjoying watching the market's response to last Monday's $100 spike -- mostly sideways consolidation, but we're dangerously close to testing the support at $630 today, hovering just slightly above. i wouldn't expect too much action for the tail-end of this week, but if we break under the $630 support we can expect a retracement to the next level around $600.


Thanks again to the four users who have already signed onto the newsletter, and i'm looking forward to at least a few more before its official launch on Monday, 10 March. as always, feel free to post any questions, comments, or concerns below and i'll be happy to address them.

203  Economy / Speculation / Re: Introducing Arepo's Weekly Newsletter on: March 06, 2014, 10:50:49 PM
I must say that I have missed your input during february, and thus am contemplating on subscribing. Though the service is a bit pricey for me and my trading capital, I guess if it helps me improve my profitability then it's worth it.

i apologise if i priced this service out of your range, although i am happy to hear you valued my input in January. i tried my best to balance the time investment with a tiered pricing scheme to reach out to a wider range of trading capital.

i would suggest signing up for the single-week option for the newsletter due Monday, 10 March, and see how well it informs your trading. i am hoping that the format will not only help your profitability for the course of the week, but also generally inform your skills regarding the interpretation of the various data i focus on. it may be a sound investment in your trading knowledge even if you don't renew your subscription for the following week.

also, i will still be commenting on the forums from time to time, so even if you decide against it, i'm more than happy to add my two cents for the sake of discussion in the forum Smiley

of course, i plan on continuing to accept new subscriptions at later dates, so i hope that after some solid trading you will be able to increase your capital to the point where you feel comfortable signing on.

204  Economy / Speculation / Re: Introducing Arepo's Weekly Newsletter on: March 06, 2014, 06:34:56 PM
Sounds good. Will transfer the amount/sign up later tonight.

thanks for being the first subscriber Smiley

i've got an errand to run, but i'll be back within a couple of hours to check for additional questions or pending confirmations.

205  Economy / Speculation / Re: Introducing Arepo's Weekly Newsletter on: March 06, 2014, 06:13:00 PM
Thanks for the clarification.

One follow up: do you have a minimum number of subscribers in mind? I mean, I hope a lot of people will sign up for it, but is there a lower bound you want to reach for it to be worth your time? If so, do you have a backup plan in case you don't reach that number?

i don't have a minimum in mind, although i intentionally underpriced the service to encourage some of the newbies and lurkers who are only trading with a small amount of capital to sign on and hopefully learn a little and better their trading strategies. for my last report, a lot of these users came out of the woodwork for the opportunity.

that being said, since i will be doing the analysis anyway for my own trading purposes, it really will not amount to too much additional work. i anticipate it will actually help my own rigor because i will be forced to present it in publishable form, as opposed to simply notes, and it will be similar to what i was posting publicly on the forums in January.

in other words, i am confident that i will be able to launch and provide this service for any number of subscribers, and i also anticipate that the feedback and commentary in the corresponding thread will help me pick up new subscribers in the coming weeks and months.

206  Economy / Speculation / Re: Introducing Arepo's Weekly Newsletter on: March 06, 2014, 05:40:44 PM
Hey arepo. Welcome back Smiley

Glad to see you're launching that newsletter that you mentioned before. I enjoyed your previous posts in here a lot, and I can say already that I'll sign up for the 4 month subscription right away under one condition: weekly newsletter is good enough for me, as I try to limit my trades to one or two per weeks at most, but sometimes bigger events can make it necessary to update your analysis.

Say, for example the week before the 400 USD bottom. A newsletter on Monday could have described the general outlook and downtrend, but I'm pretty sure an update would have been necessary a) when gox officially filed for bankruptcy protection, and b) when we hit 400, in what appears to be a mid term bottom.

I would hope that, even for those who order the weekly newsletter, such short term updates could be made available without extra cost. Is this something you can see yourself doing for the subscribers?

i apologise, i intended to make that clear in the OP.

in the event that the model i present on Monday is invalidated by a market perturbation like the MtGox fiasco, or simply general price behavior that falsifies the model in some way, i will send out an update as quickly as possible and post an alert in the corresponding thread.

in fact, i will likely post a short midweek follow-up commentary most weeks, to be found in the thread, as i want this service to be as comprehensive as possible and it is likely that some specifics will have to be clarified as the price action plays out as opposed to attempting to make a prediction on Monday to a precision that may not be empirically possible. for example, i may outline a pattern to be followed with approximate price targets, and then comment on our progression through the pattern if there is any ambiguity.

in any event, the subscribers will definitely be informed if my own personal model changes in any way from the one that is presented to them on Monday.

good question!

207  Economy / Speculation / Introducing Arepo's Weekly Newsletter on: March 06, 2014, 04:26:18 PM
Hello fellow speculators! after a brief hiatus during the month of February, i am once again back in bitcoin business Smiley

To kick off this trading season, i'd like to launch a weekly newsletter featuring the same kind of analysis i periodically posted to the forums in January. for those of you unfamiliar with my work, you can get a feel for my techniques here and here. i have been active on this subforum for about two and a half years now, and during that time i have tested and honed various methods for anticipating bitcoin price behavior. my academic background is in Physics and Mathematics, both fields which have influenced my work.

I make extensive use of technical indicators, the complete list of those which i have found particularly useful behavior being:

    -Accumulation/Distribution and Chaikin Oscillator
    -Aroon and Aroon Oscillator
    -Chaikin Money Flow
    -Price Volume Transform
    -Average Directional Index
    -Money Flow Index
    -William's Oscillator
    -Stochastic RSI
    -Commodity Channel Index
    -Detrended Price Oscillator
    -Ultimate Oscillator
    -Bollinger Band Width
    -Mass Index
    -Rate of Change
    -Slow Stochastic Oscillator

For short-term predictions, i also largely focus on direct price analysis, using a fractal model similar to Elliot Waves to make weighted predictions about price behavior based upon consistent patterns in historical price data. my trading is also generally informed by a number of concepts and equations from the realm of classical physics, like the damped oscillator behavior that occurs in the price function after large movements.

The newsletter will be mainly directed towards new speculators who may not fully understand how to interpret the various indicators available at resources like, with full explanations of my own interpretations accompanied by specific price targets and signals which will help you make more informed trading decisions in the future, as well as profit from my own observations in the meantime!

For more experienced traders, the newsletter will hopefully provide an alternate perspective to corroborate or challenge your own models and predictions, as stress-testing and second-guessing is the only empirical way to improve your techniques!

To address the wide range of users in this subforum, I am offering three pricing tiers:

0.025 BTC for 1 week (1 issue)
ideal for casual traders and anyone unfamiliar with my work, for a one-time report to get a feel for the publication

0.085 BTC for 1 month (4 issues discounted)

0.3 BTC for 4 months (16 issues, 4 issues free)

The newsletter will be sent out on Mondays, between 9 am and 12 pm EST. any future changes to this schedule will be posted.

Please feel free to post questions, comments, or requests for clarification in this thread. for those interested, you may send payment to the address in my signature [18N9md2G1oA89kdBuiyJFrtJShuL5iDWDz] in the following format: 0.30000012 where the last two digits serves as an ID. then PM me with your email address and your ID to confirm payment. i will add your username and your subscription to a list that i will update at the end of this post to complete the subscription confirmation process. the report will be sent out via email in pdf format each Monday, and a separate thread which i will open on this forum will serve as a platform for discussion, feedback, other general commentary, and alerts.

I look forward to sharing my work with you all in this format! in the past, i have only published individual reports so i am excited to be starting a newsletter and look forward to working with you all during what i anticipate will be a very exciting bitcoin spring!


P.S. I have two other projects in the works which i will pursue if there is interest. for longer-term traders for whom the above arrangement may not be what you're looking for, i can prepare a single-issue report outlining my general expectations for the 4-month period. obviously my weekly updates will have the advantage of precision, but for traders who mostly hold, longer-term signals might be preferred. if you are interested in this kind of report, let me know in this thread as well as what you would consider a fair price. with this feedback, i can determine if i will be able to pursue this project in tandem, and publish it in the following weeks.

The other project i have considered is a daily newsletter for daytraders. this would follow the same format as the weekly newsletter i am launching, but focus on much shorter-term daily signals to help traders anticipate daily price action. i am not sure if there is enough interest to make a daily newsletter worthwhile, but if there is significant demand, i may be able to run this as well. again, let me know in this thread, and i will determine if i can provide this service.


Subscriber List: (last updated 09/03 14:29 EST)

oda.krell -- 16 issues (expires week of 23 June)
docile -- 16 issues (expires week of 23 June)
John999 -- 4 issues (expires week of 31 March)
kramerc -- 4 issues (expires week of 31 March)
iron77 -- 4 issues (expires week of 31 March)
kwest -- 4 issues (expires week of 31 March)
jlin -- 16 issues (expires week of 23 June)
CoinBurner -- 4 issues (expires week of 31 March)
208  Economy / Lending / Re: Seeking 10-15 BTC loan, will pay back principal + 15% WITHIN 100 days on: March 05, 2014, 04:26:49 PM
Why not borrow the money from a bank?
You would have to pay much less than 15% in 100 days
Is this because you are afraid the BTC price go down and your earnings can't cover the bank loan?
If this is the case than I can understand, but It can also go the other way,
I lend you and Bitfinex suddenly shutters or something and BTC triple it's value. In this case you lost your investment and your collateral can't cover my loan.

Well, the simple answer is because banks do not issue loans denominated in BTC Wink

And yes, the only real risk of loss in this case is the sudden shuttering of Bitfinex. I understand that, in light of recent events, this seems a realer possibility than it may have done a month ago, but I truly believe that due diligence is the key and that MtGox, for instance, had shown plenty of warning signs regarding the risk of holding funds there. I chose Bitfinex precisely because it is the intersection of a quality trading platform and apparent robustness. For instance, Bitfinex provides liquidity by creating a market of lenders and borrowers instead of the bucketshop-like practices of past brokerages like Bitcoinica.
209  Economy / Lending / Re: Seeking 10-15 BTC loan, will pay back principal + 15% WITHIN 100 days on: March 05, 2014, 06:56:51 AM
Ah ok, then i was missunderstand you.

So, i lending you 10 BTC, and in 100 day you will give me 11.5 BTC, right?

And how about a contrastable collateral?

That is correct.

I am not currently holding any altcoin; however, as mentioned in the OP, I can demonstrate ownership of assets equal to the value of the principal.
210  Economy / Lending / Re: Seeking 10-15 BTC loan, will pay back principal + 15% WITHIN 100 days on: March 04, 2014, 08:33:40 AM
Why anywho should do this, instead of buy coins and hold? The Bitcoin price within the 100 day will raise sure more then 20-50%...

Since the loan is denominated in BTC, the lender would enjoy the same value gains as holding in addition to the 15% interest in the event of a BTCUSD price increase.
211  Economy / Lending / Re: Seeking 10-15 BTC loan, will pay back principal + 15% WITHIN 100 days on: March 03, 2014, 06:30:40 AM
You're arepo from the speculation subforum, right?. Yeah, I'd trust you in principle, to give you that loan, but I don't see exactly the conditions being that favorable. Didn't check bitfinex lately, but I should be able to get a similar interest there, with the counterparty risk being lower even -- like I said, I'd trust you, but I probably trust bitfinex a bit more even Smiley

(btw, what happened to your TA posts? I always enjoyed them quite a bit. if you ever start a newsletter, make sure to post about it in the speculation forum, I'd sign up for it if the price isn't too outrageous)

Hello, O.K, yes that is me. It's nice to see a familiar face over here on the lending subforum. Smiley

The highest interest rates for lending BTC at Bitfinex are currently 0.066% daily, which comes out to about 6.7% for a period of 100 days. It is understandable, considering the comparative counterparty risk, that I should offer significantly more interest. Estimates of my gains during the next 3 months suggest that I will be able to honor as much as 15% interest on this loan, which is more than twice what is currently available on Bitfinex. Keeping in mind that I may be able to repay the principal + interest in a shorter amount of time, depending on price behavior, 15% interest is approximately equal to 3 times the available rates on Bitfinex for a period of 71 days. That is, if I am able to repay the loan + 15% interest in 71 days or less, the equivalent daily interest would be 3 times or greater that currently available at Bitfinex.

Is this a more attractive offer? I have also edited the title of the post to reflect this new offer.

Also, I unfortunately cannot maintain a presence on the forums 365 days a year because of other pressing responsibilities. My TA on the forums usually coincides with times when I have the opportunity to daytrade bitcoin, but for the months of February and March I have shifted my trading strategy to a longer-term position.

Funny that you should mention a newsletter, too, because I have recently been considering publishing something weekly for the month of March. Keep your eye on the speculation subforum, for I am sure to post there in that event. And of course, I appreciate your good words about my work. Wink
212  Economy / Lending / Re: Seeking 10-15 BTC loan, will pay back principal + 10% WITHIN 100 days on: February 25, 2014, 09:31:06 PM
any reason you don't sell the items you dont *need* to raise the funds ?
sounds pretty fool proof from what you have said.. so shouldn't be any issue selling your shit and buying back better stuff when you make a profit ?

Not really feasible in this case because, like I said, this loan is not for a capital investment. In fact, since the funds will simply be parked at Bitfinex for the duration of the period and then returned, it would be an incredible hassle to find buyers for the various items and then go through the steps of either transferring fiat into the exchange, or purchasing a large amount of BTC with the fiat, simply to reverse the process within 100 days. Also, timing is very important in this case because the market moves quickly to minimize profitability. I'm certain that selling these assets and following the steps described above would take much longer than is necessary.

The only reason I even mentioned these assets is because I do not currently have altcoin for collateral, and felt it was appropriate at least to be able to demonstrate that I own assets in the same amount I am looking to borrow. However, again, as this is not a business venture or anything of the like, I do not anticipate the need to sell these assets in order to cover the loan, but of course I cannot claim that there is zero risk of loss (what if Bitfinex suddenly shutters, etc), only that the risk is very small. That being said, in the extremely unlikely case of partial or total loss, I can and will sell the assets to make good on the debt.
213  Economy / Lending / Re: Seeking 10-15 BTC loan, will pay back principal + 10% WITHIN 100 days on: February 25, 2014, 07:22:02 AM

That's a lot of coin to ask for with basically no collateral. Unless you're signing your car over as well as sending the other items to the lender or escrow agent before the loan is complete?

I understand that it is a large loan for basically no collateral. A brief investigation of my account history will corroborate that my time at these forums is largely devoted to market analysis and speculation, to moderate success. I am going out on a limb here, but I figured I would make the request for what it is worth.

Since this loan is for hedging purposes, it contrasts with most other loan requests on this subforum as comparatively low-risk, i.e. it is not a capital investment that requires a successful business plan or some other risky outcome to be made whole. The funds will not be spent or transferred, but merely used to hedge against a leveraged position on Bitfinex. I understand that there would have to be significant trust placed on me by the lender in order to be willing to make this loan, which is why I provided a list of the members of the forum with whom I have done business over the years.

I am also willing to negotiate the size of the loan if the offer seems attractive for a smaller amount. Any amount >5 BTC would provide significant risk reduction in my position, with the larger the amount the greater the offset risk, and with the range of 10-15 providing the best risk-reduction to capital ratio.

Thanks for considering the request.
214  Economy / Lending / Seeking 10-15 BTC loan, will pay back principal + 15% WITHIN 100 days on: February 25, 2014, 07:03:01 AM
I am seeking a loan for hedging purposes. I have been an active trader and general bitcoin enthusiast for a little more than 2 years now.

The funds will be used to hedge against a position that I currently am holding at Bitfinex. They will not be spent, or otherwise transferred, for any other purposes. Either my position makes profit, and the loan and interest can be repaid in full, or my position makes losses and the hedge will profit to cover the interest.

I do not currently own altcoin for collateral, but I can provide proof of ownership of a vehicle worth approximately $3500 as well as various household electronics (flat screen HDTV, gaming consoles, and desktop and laptop computers) worth approximately $4000.

Again, the funds will not be spent or transferred from the Bitfinex account, only used to hedge, therefore the risk of loss is very small.

I am open to negotiate both the interest and the repayment period. It is likely I will be able to repay this loan within a shorter timeframe.

I am very active on the speculation subforum and have done business with the following users, in which they paid in advance for price analysis reports and other market observations around the sum of 3 BTC without issue:


I am willing to comply with any requests for personal documentation.

Since times of high price volatility are also times of large profitability for traders, I hope there is an investor who will help me reduce the risk in my position in return for mutual profits.

Also, I have not attempted to procure a loan from this subforum before, so please let me know what steps I can take to further adhere to the various precedents regarding this practice. I believe that the agreement I have outlined above is a fair offer that provides mutual benefit for both parties.


215  Economy / Services / Re: High School and College Tutor for BTC on: February 17, 2014, 02:43:12 PM
bumping for visibility, and also to note that STATISTICS (high school levels) will also be offered.

emails regarding any questions or interest are strongly encouraged!
216  Economy / Services / High School and College Tutor for BTC on: February 11, 2014, 02:18:47 AM
hey everyone, you may know me from the speculation subforum where I spend most of my time, but today I am posting on behalf of a college friend who has been running a local tutoring business and would like to extend his service to the bitcoin community! he is knowledgeable on a wide range of topics and i am confident there are some forumites who could benefit from his tutoring abilities.

Hello bitcoiners. My name is Harrison Katzz and I am a graduate student of Physics. I earned my undergraduate degrees in Physics and Computer Science with a minor in Mathematics during my time at university. I have extensive experience tutoring, and am offering tutoring over webcam for 0.05 BTC/hour for the following subjects:

Mathematics (high school up to single-variable calculus)
Physics (all levels)
Computer Science (intro courses and low-level C++, Java, and Python)
Spanish (all levels)
French (intro courses)
German (intro courses)
Swedish (intro courses)
Chemistry (high school levels)
Biology (high school levels)

Other science and math courses not listed above may also be covered. I am also offering to complete individual assignments and papers for pay, on a case-by-case basis.

If you have any questions or are interested please email me at!

I thank you in advance for your patronage, and I am looking forward to acquiring my first bitcoins by providing this service. I am very intrigued by the architecture of the Bitcoin Protocol, and hearing about it in the news more and more each month has encouraged me to make an account on these forums. Due to posting restrictions, I asked Arepo to post this advert for me. I hope it is received well.

feel free to contact Harrison directly via email, or if you have any quick questions or comments you may post them here and i will forward them.

217  Economy / Speculation / Re: Latest Developments Thread on: January 11, 2014, 11:26:12 AM
Sometimes I think we're speaking different languages Arepo but IMO that doesn't mean we have to apparently disagree on everything.  Smiley

haha it's just fun to poke fun at the more ridiculous claims you make, that's all. i wouldn't say we disagree on everything.

although i have to ask you, since there is quite a bit of good news in this thread, precisely which set is being priced-in right now, would you say? and how come everyone decided to buy at exactly the same time?
218  Economy / Speculation / Re: Latest Developments Thread on: January 11, 2014, 11:17:21 AM

More positive news. But remember all this positive news probably won't have any effect on prices as many of the experts here say.  Wink

it's clear that you don't actually take the time to read what no one except you is calling an expert opinion, anyway.

news gets priced-in gradually, mostly because not everyone hears about it at precisely the same time, not everybody reacts to it at precisely the same time, and not everybody reacts to it in precisely the same way. this is as simply as i can put it.

Just saying, it looks like its getting "priced in" a bit faster now!  Wink

ah yes.... how could i be so stupid.... correlation does imply causation! T "unsubstantiated claims" Stuart, at it again!

and i thought i'd have to wait at least a few hours to use your new nickname Tongue
219  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 11, 2014, 10:56:05 AM

Right. But Houbi did have higher volume on the breakout than on the consolidation. And its leading the markets. Stamp is literally following it lock, step and barrel - move for move. Gox not so much.

So if the leader confirms volume I wonder if that does not indicate a potential more significant bullish move?

ah yes, i see. that is bullish indeed. the decoupling of the markets is a strange and confounding thing, though. i'd say it's certainly less bullish than a proper breakout on gox and stamp, as well. and of course, this is only bullish micro-term, because the bearish wedge is still a possibility, depending on price action today. if we can't break above the resistance we're currently pushing, we could still retest Wednesday's low.

decisive breakout on gox! 4-day highs just reached on both gox and stamp. just waiting for morning volume, i suppose... this is exciting Smiley
220  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 11, 2014, 10:27:09 AM

I'm not actually talking about you in particular Arepo. I can't be bothered to go back over three weeks digging up every time someone said there would be a "last leg down" because just look at that "low volume", etc. You know what I'm talking about.

i wasn't taking it personally, at all Wink

a brief overview of your posts in the last three weeks shows that volume is one of your least-discussed data, actually. you prefer it far less than news, of course, which must be a superior trading signal based on your confidence in your various assertions.

as for a 'last leg down' in reference to the repercussions of the December crash, i wouldn't rule it out just yet...

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