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361  Economy / Speculation / Re: Start of a new rally? on: January 05, 2014, 04:00:12 PM
I am not sure we have even seen full bear capitulation yet.... it is coming

This reminds me of last July when some bears clung to their hopes of $30-50 coins (or even cheaper) and predicted "no triple digits for 2013" as the price moved steadily upwards after capitulation at $66.

Get over it. Capitulation was at $455 this time around. It's time to move on.

Sure there will be dips and panics (like the Satoshi Dice sale or Silk Road bust) but the uptrend is on.

this is simply false. there is a window of opportunity based on the classic bubble pattern about 3 weeks after the period of low volume right before the upwards correction. we saw the consolidation with low volume, and now we're seeing the upwards correction. the greed of short-term-memory-impaired traders will drive us to some ridiculous high (but fall short of a new ATH), the trend will exhaust, and the failure to break up towards a new ATH will spark a short, sudden, high-volume capitulation. where, in terms of price, this will take us is a much harder question but the fact remains that the price environment is begging for it.

--arepo

+1 Having watched this for a couple of years now, this is my read as well. $450 might be the new low, but I'm guessing we will test even lower to flush out the easy money players. Remember that there is plenty of big money that wants to get in the game and as long as there are weak hand players - and there are lots of new ones - they will make repeated efforts to drive the price to lower entry.

This will be healthy for the long-term bull trend, but looks very scary if you don't know what is going on.

That said, I'm not in fiat, and will take advantage of any big drop with new money.

i agree with you but i suspect that $450 is a very solid bottom.
362  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 05, 2014, 03:50:41 PM
I think the profit making will come now. There is absolutely tiny support until 940$ only 1000btc. Ok, but it is growing... one minute ago it was 100btc to 1000$, now 300

profit-takers will wait until the bid spread thickens, or else there is too much slippage to take good profit anyway.

as i did you... the buying pressure is immense, the bids filled in in no time at all.
363  Economy / Speculation / Re: Midterm Downtrend - on: January 05, 2014, 03:44:41 PM
Midterm Downtrend - January will possibly be a rather flat / slightly declining month

You hit it right on the head dude! Nice analysis and TA!

give him a break Tongue he saw the fractal, he just didn't pay enough attention to mark the right reference points...
364  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis never ends on: January 05, 2014, 03:42:09 PM
$830 is continuing to act as massive resistance. This is good news for the bearish case.

Unfortunately you are wrong again. It is bad news for the bearish case.

that was from forever ago, dude, don't be digging up people's dirt like that. Undecided
365  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 05, 2014, 03:39:58 PM
I think the profit making will come now. There is absolutely tiny support until 940$ only 1000btc. Ok, but it is growing... one minute ago it was 100btc to 1000$, now 300

profit-takers will wait until the bid spread thickens, or else there is too much slippage to take good profit anyway.
366  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 05, 2014, 03:33:14 PM

not sure what you mean. the bolded statement should have made it clear that i was in proper position for this -- it in no way took me by surprise. i'm quite pleased with the profits, actually Grin however, we are far above the trendline now and we're going to pay for it later.

So that means.. . you've sold! Is that right? You have balls, I'll give you that!  Grin

profit-taking is different than selling. sell high, rebuy $10 lower, and you can squeeze so much out of a good, foolish, monday morning rally like this one.

tsk tsk you greedy mofos and your irrational behavior and your market inefficiencies that are lining our pockets Tongue

It's Sunday Smiley

you've got me there. a bit low on sleep and high on caffeine. this kind of price action makes it feel like a monday, i'll tell you that Cheesy
367  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 05, 2014, 03:26:05 PM

not sure what you mean. the bolded statement should have made it clear that i was in proper position for this -- it in no way took me by surprise. i'm quite pleased with the profits, actually Grin however, we are far above the trendline now and we're going to pay for it later.

So that means.. . you've sold! Is that right? You have balls, I'll give you that!  Grin

profit-taking is different than selling. sell high, rebuy $10 lower, and you can squeeze so much out of a good, foolish, monday morning rally like this one.

tsk tsk you greedy mofos and your irrational behavior and your market inefficiencies that are lining our pockets Tongue

edit: wow, i've just noticed it isn't even monday! it used to be, in the old days, this kind of thing only happened when people's wire transfers rolled in at the start of the week. a weekend rally is a strange thing..
368  Economy / Speculation / Re: Start of a new rally? on: January 05, 2014, 03:23:47 PM
I am not sure we have even seen full bear capitulation yet.... it is coming

This reminds me of last July when some bears clung to their hopes of $30-50 coins (or even cheaper) and predicted "no triple digits for 2013" as the price moved steadily upwards after capitulation at $66.

Get over it. Capitulation was at $455 this time around. It's time to move on.

Sure there will be dips and panics (like the Satoshi Dice sale or Silk Road bust) but the uptrend is on.

this is simply false. there is a window of opportunity based on the classic bubble pattern about 3 weeks after the period of low volume right before the upwards correction. we saw the consolidation with low volume, and now we're seeing the upwards correction. the greed of short-term-memory-impaired traders will drive us to some ridiculous high (but fall short of a new ATH), the trend will exhaust, and the failure to break up towards a new ATH will spark a short, sudden, high-volume capitulation. where, in terms of price, this will take us is a much harder question but the fact remains that the price environment is begging for it.

--arepo
369  Economy / Speculation / Re: Over the next few hours and days remember this green line... on: January 05, 2014, 03:19:07 PM
I'm not certain they will but remember, if things become unsustainable over the days to come there is no need to fall back very far. There is going to be MASSIVE pressure mounting for an extremely bullish first quarter 2014.

your bullishness is a little overzealous. i can tell not simply because you make mostly bullish claims, but rather also that you tend to make claims without any significant support thereof as if repeating them over and over could make them true. thanks to our faulty primate wiring, repeating something over and over again actually does make it feel more true, so i would take extra caution for this reason exactly. Wink

just a helpful hint from an historical perspective.

--arepo
370  Economy / Speculation / Re: Start of a new rally? on: January 05, 2014, 03:14:50 PM
I am not sure we have even seen full bear capitulation yet.... it is coming

yup, we should see another capitulation event on the mid-term. this exponential minirally/bulltrap is a great setup for the dumpers. we're so far above the trendline now i'm dizzy...

--arepo
371  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 05, 2014, 03:13:06 PM
wtf is this? are we rabid dogs? i just made as much as i made in the previous 9-day period in the last hour Shocked not efficient in the slightest, guys. prepare for some serious profit-taking at the end of this ride Undecided

sometimes i believe the whole bit about speculators enhancing liquidity and such but other times i think it's a load of shit and all of this volatility is greed and fear manifested. good job newbs Tongue

Arepo it appears to me you are losing your cool fast as you did not believe we were essentially past the China bubble.

Please tell me at what point you will accept that this thing is going to be much bigger much quicker than you thought it would be?

not sure what you mean. the bolded statement should have made it clear that i was in proper position for this -- it in no way took me by surprise. i'm quite pleased with the profits, actually Grin however, we are far above the trendline now and we're going to pay for it later.
372  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 05, 2014, 03:01:50 PM
wtf is this? are we rabid dogs? i just made as much as i made in the previous 9-day period in the last hour Shocked not efficient in the slightest, guys. prepare for some serious profit-taking at the end of this ride Undecided

sometimes i believe the whole bit about speculators enhancing liquidity and such but other times i think it's a load of shit and all of this volatility is greed and fear manifested. good job newbs Tongue
373  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis never ends on: January 05, 2014, 10:34:19 AM
Yes, slightly broken. Meaning he could sneeze and the angle of the upper bound could change, making the wedge not broken at all.

Channels are an indication of trend and sentiment, not trading law.

this. in more empirical terms, the price is still within the margin of error of the wedge shape. as i mentioned elsewhere, these shapes are drawn using data sets that often contain outliers so it's tricky drawing conclusions sometimes.

--arepo
374  Economy / Speculation / Re: Thoughts on FBI dumping Silkroad BTC on: January 05, 2014, 07:05:07 AM
Why is speculating on their action futile, especially since they have publicly announced what their action will be ....

this is precisely what i mean. perhaps "speculating", having two meanings, was not the best word to use to avoid this miscommunication Tongue
375  Economy / Speculation / Re: Thoughts on FBI dumping Silkroad BTC on: January 05, 2014, 06:56:13 AM
I think the FBI will keep it, especially if the trial leads to a conviction ("drug money" and other seized assets are kept by the government upon conviction, providing a nice revenue stream that many say leads to overzealous enforcement of drug laws when the local police agency is feeling a little poor).

It could provide the USA with a storehouse of Bitcoin, in much the same way as Fort Knox provides a storehouse of physical gold.  If Bitcoin takes off in the future and becomes more widely accepted, this could prove quite useful to the government as an asset.


From the coindesk article:

"The FBI has told Forbes that they will sell their bitcoin holdings after Ulbrichtís trial."

thank you. the likely outcome of this issue is mainly resolved. the other discussion in this thread is worthwhile but speculating on the FBI's actions is futile at this point.
376  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 05, 2014, 06:46:14 AM

i applaud you for your keen eye. this is the basis of fractal analysis, an umbrella term for Elliot-Wave-style analysis. unfortunately for your prediction, the oscillator at the bottom shows good evidence that the market conditions were significantly different when the crash happened than at this point in our present rally.

if it weren't for that, however, i'd consider that bearish evidence indeed. i've used self-similarities i have found to great effect when combined with other indicators. the amazing part is that it even works at wildly different scales!

Thanks, I was not implying the drop was due now though.

On the first chart, bottom to top spans 5 days. It is 1h.

The second one is 4h, which would mean the strategy is roughly spanning 4x in time, hence a ~20 day target.

We're on day 16.

This is all on a very rough hypothetical level and out of pure air of course. Just be alert I guess.

yes, it will be an interesting chart to revisit around that time to compare to see if market conditions are ripe. the 20 day timespan, frighteningly enough, coincides with the capitulation event that my bearishest model, as well as a colleague's is predicting.

--arepo
377  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 05, 2014, 06:18:50 AM
Now I'm not rushing to any conclusions.... but permabulls will hate this one...

Do you guys see a pattern? Can you find that perfect slope somewhere else?



so this is all just a part of a big gox loop .. and were going to rubber band back to early dec then re crash?

i applaud you for your keen eye. this is the basis of fractal analysis, an umbrella term for Elliot-Wave-style analysis. unfortunately for your prediction, the oscillator at the bottom shows good evidence that the market conditions were significantly different when the crash happened than at this point in our present rally.

if it weren't for that, however, i'd consider that bearish evidence indeed. i've used self-similarities i have found to great effect when combined with other indicators. the amazing part is that it even works at wildly different scales!

--arepo
378  Economy / Speculation / Re: Early 2014... on: January 05, 2014, 06:02:04 AM
Lol at 'speculators' .... you guys don't know shit. The opposite of what you say will happen. Go back to the stock market if u wana analyze charts

at the risk of feeding a troll, the bolded statement is false in at least this one instance.

I didn't mean to insult you my friend, i'm exaggerating a bit but I still think bitcoin and crypto is too unpredictable

i am well aware that that's what you believe.
379  Economy / Speculation / Re: Losing all hope on: January 05, 2014, 06:01:25 AM
bitcoin never broke the previous ATH and I doubt it will do it now. The previous ones were $0.5 ATH, $1.1 ATH, $32 ATH, $266 ATH, now $1242 - once we are well past that mark, we won't see it again.

this a very good point, piramida, but the paradigm is liable to change at some point -- the problem is we simply do not know when!


Easy - bitcoin is not yet at worldwide adoption stage, so if the paradigm is broken *now*, that would mean bitcoin has failed. So if the growth stops now, it would make sense to get out of bitcoin asap. But I don't think it is time now, or that this time would ever come. What I think would happen, is the price will (after several more rally/crash cycles) arrive at a more or less steady state with slow natural growth against inflating fiat. But until that point, there is only one direction, and it is up. If it's broken, something went wrong and you should get out. For me, it's that simple.

[bolded for emphasis]

spoken like a true trader.

but oh, there will be a day when the growth stops and everyone who wants a bitcoin has one. and then the speculators will leave. they will exit the market in troves and the ones who stay will short and we will enter the first real bear market bitcoin will have ever seen, The Great Correction to its heretofore undisturbed infinite bullrun... but that likely won't happen yet for quite some time.

hint: the paradigm isn't "everybody gets rich". you speak like if you can't get returns on your bitcoin investment it's 'broken'.

--arepo
380  Economy / Speculation / Re: Thoughts on FBI dumping Silkroad BTC on: January 04, 2014, 07:07:41 PM

that's a damn shame. electric would be nearly my last ignore, if i was so inclined. the fact is you're extrapolating things from your own personal opinions and forgetting that not everyone thinks the same way about bitcoin.


OK. Forget the "ignoring". Let's focus on the topic. Can I ask you a serious question?

Please read this first: http://techliberation.com/2014/01/02/help-me-answer-senate-committees-questions-about-bitcoin/

Would you say that the impression I got from reading this and other diverse sources of information, the impression that "the government is working out how to cater for Bitcoin's success", is "delusional"?

"the government" is not a single, monolithic entity so it's not necessarily delusional it just doesn't make much sense.

the FBI, however, if some sources are to be believed, have a specific and precedented way to deal with seized assets which will likely not be changed without due process.
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