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Author Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion  (Read 615423 times)
bikefront
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May 16, 2019, 05:33:02 PM
 #5301

Shorted the BIDU high, and took the 15%, as forecast previously without smoke and mirrors or mental gymnastics. Is there even any long time Armstrong follower who can prove they made a consistent profit following him? I'm all ears...
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Alex4711
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May 16, 2019, 06:46:47 PM
Last edit: May 16, 2019, 06:57:56 PM by Alex4711
 #5302

Great!

I think the issue with the methodology you are proposing to study the quality of MA´s system suffers from the fact, that the results are influenced by the trading skills of individuals. So at the end you will still not now if the results are due to Socrates or do the superb  trading skills. Everyday in the markets there are plenty of winners that are using their own systems. Does technical analysis work ? Sure! but there are a lot of traders loosing money with that system. Is that a fault of technical analysis ?

The accuracy of Socrates can be only tested against the predictions the system is generating and not for specifics trades that are on the responsibility of individuals.  It predicted a high in Nasdaq in May. We have a high in May so far. Bitcoin reversals predicted an uptrend in Bitcoin: we are having a bitcoin uptrend.   No weekly bearish reversals have been elected so far. And the next high / low is supposed to be in June. We will see.

Between May first and today the system did not predict any specific weekly direction for Nasdaq as no weekly reversals have been elected (also not any monthly, daily I am not following). This is exactly what is happening now. If reversals are elected tomorrow , I will post it here and then we can see the results one week after (where we should consider that reversals act similar  as support / resistance levels) So far, I can not complain in any aspect about the prediction of the system as long as I am following it.



 
bikefront
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May 16, 2019, 07:57:05 PM
 #5303

Great!

I think the issue with the methodology you are proposing to study the quality of MA´s system suffers from the fact, that the results are influenced by the trading skills of individuals. So at the end you will still not now if the results are due to Socrates or do the superb  trading skills. Everyday in the markets there are plenty of winners that are using their own systems. Does technical analysis work ? Sure! but there are a lot of traders loosing money with that system. Is that a fault of technical analysis ?

The accuracy of Socrates can be only tested against the predictions the system is generating and not for specifics trades that are on the responsibility of individuals.  It predicted a high in Nasdaq in May. We have a high in May so far. Bitcoin reversals predicted an uptrend in Bitcoin: we are having a bitcoin uptrend.   No weekly bearish reversals have been elected so far. And the next high / low is supposed to be in June. We will see.

Between May first and today the system did not predict any specific weekly direction for Nasdaq as no weekly reversals have been elected (also not any monthly, daily I am not following). This is exactly what is happening now. If reversals are elected tomorrow , I will post it here and then we can see the results one week after (where we should consider that reversals act similar  as support / resistance levels) So far, I can not complain in any aspect about the prediction of the system as long as I am following it.



 

I disagree with that notion. You said that some people make money and some people lose money, with the technical analysis systems. That is like saying some people exercise and get better health while others do the same and get injured. Each system is different. My system is different, and the way I pick price points is possible unique. I don't use Socrates at all anymore, all the forecasts I make are my own. I am simply demonstrating that clear forecasts can be made without ambiguity.

See, the idea that what Socrates claims and what actually happened is where I have a problem. The claims are NOT exact, so you can say in hindsight it was right. So if it went the other way, you could say it was right too. It picked a February high, and that did NOT happen. There was a Panic Cycle in August for the Dow and turning point. That didn't happen either. It picked a November low in gold. That did not happen. I can go on and on about these claims that didn't work. Sometimes it does work- I've given credit where it is due and he picked the low in December and the January high. However, he made a LOT of mistakes too.

Yes, making a CLEAR prediction in what Armstrong is saying beforehand is important, because otherwise it is hindsight bias and means nothing. Anyone can say they were right after the fact happens already.
psp777
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May 16, 2019, 08:02:40 PM
 #5304

DOW: Interesting close

etoimene
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May 16, 2019, 08:12:34 PM
 #5305

That number was mentioned as weekly. There's plenty of time tomorrow to go both ways. Sad
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May 16, 2019, 10:10:41 PM
 #5306

StrikeEagle knows why, being Armstrong. I'd also like to know what method he uses to track global capital flows; last I read on the site, it was a third party provider. Armstrong's model requires accurate and reliable data, and if he does not have that, the whole thing is put to question. A single thing goes wrong and, like a complex ecosystem, everything else is affected.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/capital-flows-currency-flows/
'..The capital flows you can obtain from OECD. You have to take the Capital Account and Current Account. We get the raw data that is faster. The Capital Account reflects capital inflows typically for investment, stocks, bonds, real estate, etc. The Current Account reflects the erroneously referred to trade numbers for it also includes outflows of interest and dividends...
Currency Flows are a more immediate indicator and the price reflects the flows and we can detect volume. Thus, a rising dollar and a declining euro will reflect the currency flows instantly and be confirmed by the Capital Flows as the data comes in.
This is how we were able to state publicly in 1998 that we saw $100 billion going into to Russia and $150 billion leaving. Hence, we warned Russia would collapse and that became the Long-Term Capital Management debacle.....
Keep in mind that many central banks gave us access to raw data so they too could see the world faster. Correlation studies show that the rise and fall of currencies reflect the final numbers of Capital Flows...'

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/capital-flow/capital-flow-movements/
'..Here is our capital flow map, which is proprietary. Even central banks are using this. We are collecting the raw data globally and will be providing a breakdown in the future of volume and sector analysis we pick up in the flows..'
trc4949
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May 17, 2019, 12:27:31 AM
 #5307

It seems to me that the 'trade of the century' will be to buy both stock market and gold near the next 2020 January turning point... maybe that is the slingshot date low.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/politics/trumps-china-tweet/
bikefront
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May 17, 2019, 12:38:36 AM
 #5308

StrikeEagle knows why, being Armstrong. I'd also like to know what method he uses to track global capital flows; last I read on the site, it was a third party provider. Armstrong's model requires accurate and reliable data, and if he does not have that, the whole thing is put to question. A single thing goes wrong and, like a complex ecosystem, everything else is affected.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/capital-flows-currency-flows/
'..The capital flows you can obtain from OECD. You have to take the Capital Account and Current Account. We get the raw data that is faster. The Capital Account reflects capital inflows typically for investment, stocks, bonds, real estate, etc. The Current Account reflects the erroneously referred to trade numbers for it also includes outflows of interest and dividends...
Currency Flows are a more immediate indicator and the price reflects the flows and we can detect volume. Thus, a rising dollar and a declining euro will reflect the currency flows instantly and be confirmed by the Capital Flows as the data comes in.
This is how we were able to state publicly in 1998 that we saw $100 billion going into to Russia and $150 billion leaving. Hence, we warned Russia would collapse and that became the Long-Term Capital Management debacle.....
Keep in mind that many central banks gave us access to raw data so they too could see the world faster. Correlation studies show that the rise and fall of currencies reflect the final numbers of Capital Flows...'

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/capital-flow/capital-flow-movements/
'..Here is our capital flow map, which is proprietary. Even central banks are using this. We are collecting the raw data globally and will be providing a breakdown in the future of volume and sector analysis we pick up in the flows..'

I am skeptical, as another user pointed out that foreigners were selling US equities while Armstrong claims the opposite. Which is true? And using simple addition and subtraction does not prove that something will collapse; indeed, these capital flows are published publicly. He claims raw data is faster...I just want to know what he uses to claim real time flows.

Is Armstrong claiming CBs are using his map? Or is he claiming CBs use capital flow maps in general? And does he provide evidence for that claim? And how accurate are his numbers? Like I said before, if we can't verify the accuracy of his cycles due to gaps in the fossil/coin record, then how can ANY of it be believed?
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May 17, 2019, 02:52:27 AM
 #5309

A bit of a distance between the weekly reversals, but my other TA shows a downward view

bikefront
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May 17, 2019, 03:16:46 PM
 #5310

A few days ago I said: "An open above 63.2 implies a move up with 63.2 as support. 60.38 for vice versa." Well, today we opened above and we are getting this 1% oil rally with 63.11 as the low. For a max drawdown of $90 with a max profit of $570 thus far.

Really, if a guy with a nothing but a half broken laptop and some chart gazing is clearly and consistently doing this while someone else with a hundreds of millions $ system requires excuses, lies, and so on to maintain the illusion of some kind of invincible system that hasn't made any money for a single person whose been following him for years, then I just don't know what to tell you. I'm not the judge, and neither are you. Your account is the boss. What does it tell you?
Alex4711
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May 17, 2019, 08:06:56 PM
 #5311


Between May first and today the system did not predict any specific weekly direction for Nasdaq as no weekly reversals have been elected (also not any monthly, daily I am not following). This is exactly what is happening now. If reversals are elected tomorrow , I will post it here and then we can see the results one week after (where we should consider that reversals act similar  as support / resistance levels)
 

Ok finally a weekly bearish has been elected on Nasdaq. Bitcoin remained over the weekly bullish (also elected)  and below the Monthly Bullish. There are still some days till months end :-)
bikefront
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May 18, 2019, 01:59:14 AM
 #5312


Between May first and today the system did not predict any specific weekly direction for Nasdaq as no weekly reversals have been elected (also not any monthly, daily I am not following). This is exactly what is happening now. If reversals are elected tomorrow , I will post it here and then we can see the results one week after (where we should consider that reversals act similar  as support / resistance levels)
 

Ok finally a weekly bearish has been elected on Nasdaq. Bitcoin remained over the weekly bullish (also elected)  and below the Monthly Bullish. There are still some days till months end :-)

What was the elected weekly bearish on the Nasdaq, and what is the next one?

What was the elected weekly bullish on BTC, and what is the next one?

To be fair, Armstrong says typically the move can occur after 1-3 time units, so we can wait longer than a week for the Reversals to do their thing.
Alex4711
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May 18, 2019, 03:49:34 PM
 #5313

as mentioned I can not disclose too much information obtained via subscription.

However I can tell you that I checked IBD today an the Accumulation Distribution letter for the major indices are "D+", being A the best and E the worst.
So the picture is consistent. All big indexes have the same letter. On the week of May 6th, we had "B" in SP500 and Nasdaq.

bikefront
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May 18, 2019, 05:31:44 PM
 #5314

as mentioned I can not disclose too much information obtained via subscription.

However I can tell you that I checked IBD today an the Accumulation Distribution letter for the major indices are "D+", being A the best and E the worst.
So the picture is consistent. All big indexes have the same letter. On the week of May 6th, we had "B" in SP500 and Nasdaq.



As mentioned previously, this is only to prove or disprove Armstrong's system publicly, not to take trades based on it. A lot of people have lost money on his calls. On that subject, ones who espouse his calls, let me ask you this: What about the wrong in calling for a November low in gold? What about the February market high of the so called 25100 number? Why do Armstrong fans not talk about those LOSING calls? It's just doing the same thing, smoke and mirrors while ignoring the losing calls.

You're talking about indicators which have nothing to do with proving Armstrong one way or a other, indicators don't do anything.

November low in gold was wrong
February market high was wrong
August Panic Cycle and turning point against Bullish was wrong
So much wrong

Can any Armstrong fan clearly state them? Or are some Armstrong multis running around? StrikeEagle is almost certainly Martin Armstrong, as I previously showed, with evidence and you can check my posts to match when his blog posts came out.

Why does Armstrong state you can trade against Reversals when time is running out and claim he got it right, but when he is wrong he says never anticipate? You can't have it both ways. Oh, and dont forget alignment and cycle inversions- extra options to avoid accountability for wrong calls. But guess what? Once you enter a trade, it comes down to a yes or a no. Socrates saying it wasnt wrong because of an obscure number or cycle will not change the fact that once a trade is entered, it will have an outcome. What methodology is anyone even using consistently to generate profits? Or are you changing it each time? Can any Armstrong fan answer these incredibly basic questions?
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May 18, 2019, 06:48:53 PM
 #5315

I have recently read another very interesting book - written by a former employee of Princeton Economic Institute just before MA was thrown into jail.

It is called Not On My Grandfather's Wallstreet, though the book isn't exclusively about MA. It does have many chapters about his run ins with MA, working with him, and then meeting him soon after his release from prison.

That person (who uses a pseudonym) is Barclay Leib, who from what i can tell is a professional and successful trader, who still works in trading to this day. Meanwhile, MA appears to have no real trading history, at least since he left jail. I wonder if he was banned from trading as part of a deal to release him? That would explain the (possible) snake oil salesman selling of events and subscriptions. Nice earner for him...

Lieb is interesting in what he talks about, I will cover that below. He also talks about MA's early life where he used to work for government analysing rockets. He then moved into financial consulting having been so bored working for government, he started reading extensively into history and economic cycles. Ironic that MA explains A students work for C students, and B students work for government.

It seems he was always a B student, not least with no formal education or qualifications in either economics or trading. That I do find interesting as you would never think that. Granted pieces of paper are just that, but then by that same argument, if MA was so incredible, why hasn't he dedicated himself to his art and become a PhD at the very least? It does reduce his credibility.

In the book, MA is called "Marty Amwell" and Armstrong Economics is referred to as "Amwell Economics".

It does not paint a particularly rosy picture of MA and at the time (1999) when the sh*t was hitting the fan. Essentially, ML was using his consulting firm to buy up tobashi transactions among major Japanese companies, who were suffering serious investment/pensions losses. Referenced in the book (but not named) is Naoki Kumagai who was an MA client who he met at his Tokyo WEC event. This guy was later charged with fraud and jailed for 8 years.

The FBI investigation into MA was actually started by the Japanese financial regulators. BL asked MA before he was arrested if he had made any losses, where he was trading through (Edmond J.) Safra Bank. He told BL, something in the region of $400m had been lost.

Fast forward to MA's release from jail and he agreed to meet BL, who explained he was left "disgusted" that MA now denied he had made any losses or had even done anything wrong. MA explained it was Safra who stole the money.

BL explained that after getting out of jail, MA appeared a "complete mess" and his "sharp" mind was no more. He explains of the Armstrong Economics blog back in 2014/15 and how where before jail, MA's writings were on point, now it had turned into irreverent ramblings.

What is interesting though is BL never said the pi cycle was wrong. He actually does believe it exists, though requires further refining. He talks of double the 8.6 cycle (17 years) as major turning points, though his forecasts generally line up with what MA forecast. See some of his articles:
https://safehaven.com/article/248/measuring-financial-time-the-magic-of-pi
http://www.sandspring.com/articles/TechnicalAnalystMagazineJan2009.pdf

I still think MA may have uncovered an interesting theory on cycles that may well be true, however, since getting out of jail, I question whether:
• He still trades anymore, not least as he seems very shady about his current trading (he may well be banned)
• Socrates actually exists or is a ruse to cover up incriminating evidence that would jail him even longer re: the tobashi scam
• His state of mind having been put in solitary for 5 years and almost killed by an inmate who battered his head with his own typewriter
• His finances where, if you are entering your twilight years and need money, would the ethics of making money by lying override honesty?
• His trading prowess where it may well be likely he made wrong bets on USD/JPY and lost HUNDREDS of millions - why didn't Socrates help him avoid this?
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May 19, 2019, 06:24:04 AM
 #5316

I bet the Spx will retest 2600 .
Armstrong is right in gold making Jan high .
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May 19, 2019, 01:56:30 PM
 #5317

I bet the Spx will retest 2600 .
Armstrong is right in gold making Jan high .

On what assumptions are you making your bet on?

And the gold high was actually February... I suppose we could be lenient and say the highest closing month was January with the highest intraday in February, if you want to go by that. Either way, I don't know if anyone forecasted that beforehand, so it'd just by typical hindsight bias if there was none.

If we want to prove it, like I said, then calls need to be posted in advance. People aren't doing it because Armstrong's cycle timing doesn't work. Reversals in isolation might work, as I've mentioned before- they did really well in the last correction. However, they do suffer large drawdowns at times if you trade the elections. Even so, people are simply not posting them either, possibly due to lack of confidence.
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May 19, 2019, 11:31:02 PM
 #5318

I am still in the testing and analyzing phase of Socrates Pro. I do have money to work in the markets, but not related to any calls by Armstrong. I admit I lost money on a gold trade when he stated gold would go under $1000 at the end of 2016. I was shorting gold only to have it reverse on me very quickly. Weeks later, MA stated, see our levels held! And, I was like...wait a minute...this was a 180 degree turn from what was being stated on his blog. I did however make money on another gold short when the 1365 level held last year, but a simple resistance line was the "call to short" for me. His number acted as confirmation when we didn't cross it to the upside.

As, I previously mentioned this is not a system that clearly indicates buy or sell. I find the arrays extremely confusing evening after reading his guide. Sometimes the arrays work and sometimes they don't. When they work to the day it has me being a believer and that there is promise, but other times they fail and a "cycle inversion" or nothing happens in either direction...and this is frustrating as the "system can never be wrong."

The arrays did not pick up on any large movement from the Dec 2018 low to present in the DOW. That was a huge move. I have spent a long time in cash as we are to test the December lows. So, I am waiting for a substantial pullback.

There is talk of version 2.0 of Socrates- what that looks like is a guess to me. I always felt that MA has access to so much more than what has been released for $150 a month to the public. As I mentioned earlier, other cyclical analysts either have cycle brackets showing movement in a predictive fashion or an actual line showing predictive movement with accuracy and backtesting is visual as it is on a chart. There is some talk about cycle inversions...or delays in cycles with others as well however.

So, a bit frustrated as I thought Socrates would be "more", but I am not giving up on it yet.
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May 20, 2019, 01:38:25 AM
 #5319



Johnyii.com .this subscription will give you good trading advice .I been reading his newsletter for sometime. He is good .

I am still in the testing and analyzing phase of Socrates Pro. I do have money to work in the markets, but not related to any calls by Armstrong. I admit I lost money on a gold trade when he stated gold would go under $1000 at the end of 2016. I was shorting gold only to have it reverse on me very quickly. Weeks later, MA stated, see our levels held! And, I was like...wait a minute...this was a 180 degree turn from what was being stated on his blog. I did however make money on another gold short when the 1365 level held last year, but a simple resistance line was the "call to short" for me. His number acted as confirmation when we didn't cross it to the upside.

As, I previously mentioned this is not a system that clearly indicates buy or sell. I find the arrays extremely confusing evening after reading his guide. Sometimes the arrays work and sometimes they don't. When they work to the day it has me being a believer and that there is promise, but other times they fail and a "cycle inversion" or nothing happens in either direction...and this is frustrating as the "system can never be wrong."

The arrays did not pick up on any large movement from the Dec 2018 low to present in the DOW. That was a huge move. I have spent a long time in cash as we are to test the December lows. So, I am waiting for a substantial pullback.

There is talk of version 2.0 of Socrates- what that looks like is a guess to me. I always felt that MA has access to so much more than what has been released for $150 a month to the public. As I mentioned earlier, other cyclical analysts either have cycle brackets showing movement in a predictive fashion or an actual line showing predictive movement with accuracy and backtesting is visual as it is on a chart. There is some talk about cycle inversions...or delays in cycles with others as well however.

So, a bit frustrated as I thought Socrates would be "more", but I am not giving up on it yet.
bikefront
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May 20, 2019, 01:58:14 AM
 #5320

I am still in the testing and analyzing phase of Socrates Pro. I do have money to work in the markets, but not related to any calls by Armstrong. I admit I lost money on a gold trade when he stated gold would go under $1000 at the end of 2016. I was shorting gold only to have it reverse on me very quickly. Weeks later, MA stated, see our levels held! And, I was like...wait a minute...this was a 180 degree turn from what was being stated on his blog. I did however make money on another gold short when the 1365 level held last year, but a simple resistance line was the "call to short" for me. His number acted as confirmation when we didn't cross it to the upside.

As, I previously mentioned this is not a system that clearly indicates buy or sell. I find the arrays extremely confusing evening after reading his guide. Sometimes the arrays work and sometimes they don't. When they work to the day it has me being a believer and that there is promise, but other times they fail and a "cycle inversion" or nothing happens in either direction...and this is frustrating as the "system can never be wrong."

The arrays did not pick up on any large movement from the Dec 2018 low to present in the DOW. That was a huge move. I have spent a long time in cash as we are to test the December lows. So, I am waiting for a substantial pullback.

There is talk of version 2.0 of Socrates- what that looks like is a guess to me. I always felt that MA has access to so much more than what has been released for $150 a month to the public. As I mentioned earlier, other cyclical analysts either have cycle brackets showing movement in a predictive fashion or an actual line showing predictive movement with accuracy and backtesting is visual as it is on a chart. There is some talk about cycle inversions...or delays in cycles with others as well however.

So, a bit frustrated as I thought Socrates would be "more", but I am not giving up on it yet.

In my experience, the cycle thing is not good. Sometimes he actually does manage to call major highs and lows. The problem is the false positives when he calls for a move the other way but it does not happen.

The only possible thing that may have merit is the Reversal system. This means trading in the direction of the elected reversal (a misnomer! beware) and not a true high or low catching strategy. In volatile moves, it can be difficult to discern trend and direction, as well as how far a move can go. But if the Reversal is elected and a large space between, and if the system works, then it knows that there is still a lot of move left. It does leave a lot of move on the table, but it should also catch large moves. The problem is a large drawdown depending on how stops are used- I've heard conflicting accounts on how they are meant to be. And other problems associated.

Who knows. There is one user who does trading based on Directional Change and open prices, something like that. Last I heard, he claimed to be doing well with all the trades working out, there were less than ten though and I don't know what happened thus far.
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