Martin Armstrong Discussion

[olegrey]

Simplicity is better

I started shorting Brazil last week when it had the temp high. Low risk high reward. Simple to find.

No single signal in Socrates about it, actually it is still bullish from what I have heard. So far, profitable even while the start was a bit scary.

So what would have happened had I traded Socrates?

Weekly reversals elected 2019-06-07, traded for a week Friday to Friday close 2019-06-07 to 2019-06-14

$DXY weekly bearish 1% loss
EUR/USD weekly bullish 1.1% loss
GDAX weekly bullish 0.4% gain
SENSEX weekly bullish 0.4% loss
USD/CAD weekly bearish 1.0% loss
USD/CHF weekly bearish 1.2% loss
Visa weekly bullish 0.2% loss
Cotton weekly bearish 0.5% loss
Heating oil weekly bearish 0.3% loss
Natural gas weekly bearish 2.1% loss

That is a fairly good cross section of the market, of what was elected, I guess. One winner.

I would not want to extend this depressing experiment by another two weeks waiting while these trades come right while I can have a profit within a week with something better.

$DXY weekly bearish 0.4% gain
EUR/USD weekly bullish 0.4% gain
GDAX weekly bullish 2.4% gain
SENSEX weekly bullish 1.1% loss
USD/CAD weekly bearish 0.4% gain
USD/CHF weekly bearish 4.2% gain
Visa weekly bullish 2.0% gain
Cotton weekly bearish 0.1% loss
Heating oil weekly bearish 5.3% loss
Natural gas weekly bearish 5.6% gain

*All prices were obtained from tradingview on the closing of 7/7, 7/14, and 7/21.

Let see what next week brings!

Week 3 results

$DXY weekly bearish 0.4% gain
EUR/USD weekly bullish 0.3% gain
GDAX weekly bullish 2.3% gain
SENSEX weekly bullish 0.6% loss
USD/CAD weekly bearish 1.3% gain
USD/CHF weekly bearish 1.2% gain
Visa weekly bullish 2.1% gain
Cotton weekly bearish 0.9% loss
Heating oil weekly bearish 6.6% loss
Natural gas weekly bearish 0.7% gain

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[olegrey]

Let's try again to trade it, this time monthly reversals. Date elected: 2019-04-30, traded for one month until 2019-05-31

GDAX monthly bullish 5% loss
GDX monthly bearish 3.4% loss
SP 500 monthly bullish 6.6% loss
TLT monthly bearish 6.6% loss
/ZW Wheat futures monthly bearish 17.4% loss

This is garden variety stuff.

Now where has the AI computer with wheat prices back to 1259 been hiding?

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/agriculture/the-rise-in-agriculture-for-the-next-ecm/
Posted Jun 17, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
We have wheat prices back to 1259. Clearly, the projections it makes are all inclusive of weather and disease, for everything unfolds in a cycle.

Let me make this clear. We have had a 17% wheat price rise. The computer projection, a monthly bearish reversal, calls for a decline with a gap of -5% which is clearly the opposite. So what he is writing in his blog, is pure propaganda bullshit. The article is at least a month too late. That is NOT a successful projection.

Here are the month 2 results

GDAX monthly bullish 0.4% gain
GDX monthly bearish 22.4% loss
SP 500 monthly bullish 0.1% loss
TLT monthly bearish 7.4% loss
ZW Wheat futures monthly bearish 23.0% loss

[icemanmelb]

You could always start your own service and show him how it's done... 

I would certainly not show anyone. I would use it all for myself, use it as a teller machine as Martin Armstrong likes to claim. https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/personal-questions-the-club/ And I would not need to run conferences.

Here in Australia, there was a case of a hedgefund manager receiving a hedgefund award only to be found as fraud a few years later.

"Traditionally we would operate from a glass tower in a capital city but today, with the benefit of technology, we are able to balance work and life in a beautiful location," Mr Grace told Ocean Road Magazine in January 2016."

World champion surfer Joel Parkinson praised Ken Grace's "amazing mathematically driven strategies" that were "motivated towards optimum returns".

HFM AsiaHedge nominated the fund in two categories in its performance awards held last September in Singapore. A month later it was awarded the global equities hedge fund of the year prize.

https://outline.com/4YpKGC

or

https://www.afr.com/business/banking-and-finance/hedge-funds/how-a-kingscliff-hedge-fund-became-a-target-of-the-sec-20181019-h16uju

[over45]

I don't understand, or currently have access to, the arrays or reversals so I can't speak to those nor do I want to.  I am not looking for a short-term trading platform and have been very happy with the information provided to me when I did subscribe to Socrates when it was first launched.  Sounds like many here distrust Armstrong which is somewhat ironic since this is a bitcoin forum for something that is purely speculative and created by an unknown entity. 

If anyone can share - publicly or privately - what his projections for gold are -- I would like to learn.  If anyone can help me understand arrays better - would also like to learn.   

Pretty confident on Armstrong's long-term outlook and track record - and learn something new each week reading his blog.   Thank you for all the info and feedback.

[AnonymousCoder]

I don't understand, or currently have access to, the arrays or reversals so I can't speak to those nor do I want to. I am not looking for a short-term trading platform and have been very happy with the information provided to me when I did subscribe to Socrates when it was first launched. Sounds like many here distrust Armstrong which is somewhat ironic since this is a bitcoin forum for something that is purely speculative and created by an unknown entity.

If anyone can share - publicly or privately - what his projections for gold are -- I would like to learn. If anyone can help me understand arrays better - would also like to learn. -

Pretty confident on Armstrong's long-term outlook and track record - and learn something new each week reading his blog. - Thank you for all the info and feedback.

Something to learn from

No new Weekly Reversals for Gold, sorry.

Some history is always useful. As Socrates does not provide it (how would a shoddy system like that do) ...

Date Elected: 2019-06-21
"THE CASH US$ INDEX" Weekly Bearish: 96384, Close: 96220, 2019-06-28 close: 96130, 0.1% gain
"US Dollar v Euro Adjusted Spot" Weekly Bullish: 11343, Close: 11373, 2019-06-28 Close: 11370, 0.0% break even
"US Dollar v Japanese Yen Spot" Weekly Bearish: 107980, Close: 107320, 2019-06-28 Close: 107320, 0.5% loss
"Russian Rubles Cash" Weekly Bearish: 641287: Close: 630246, 2019-06-28 Close: 630246, 0.3% loss
"Cotton #2 (NYCE)" Weekly Bearish: 6540, Close: 6119, 2019-06-28 Close: 6575, 7.5% loss
"Lumber (CME)" Weekly Bullish: 3923, Close: 4053, 2019-06-28 Close: 3751, 7.5% loss

That is fairly depressing.

As a competent trader in this thread noted: Run from it and enjoy life.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

[DanB1]

I don't understand, or currently have access to, the arrays or reversals so I can't speak to those nor do I want to.  I am not looking for a short-term trading platform and have been very happy with the information provided to me when I did subscribe to Socrates when it was first launched.  Sounds like many here distrust Armstrong which is somewhat ironic since this is a bitcoin forum for something that is purely speculative and created by an unknown entity.  

If anyone can share - publicly or privately - what his projections for gold are -- I would like to learn.  If anyone can help me understand arrays better - would also like to learn.  

Pretty confident on Armstrong's long-term outlook and track record - and learn something new each week reading his blog.   Thank you for all the info and feedback.

I don't want to sound snobby, but in a way I feel sorry for you. I was once the same. Thought that everybody that ignored or spoke wrong about Armstrong was a loser that didn't see his great potential. I wanted to spend a lot of time to learn Socrates because I thought it would be the holy grail for me. But after losing money on many occasions and mainly thanks to this blog I saw that it was not me who was wrong but the Socrates system that will only create mediocre results, at best. There are very good traders here, coders and others of who I think are smarter than I am. But we all came to the same conclusion...be smart and read the last 15-20 pages and learn from our mistakes. I hate to see you lose money like I did.

[over45]

While others have had a bad experience with Armstrong - my experience has been wholly positive.   I'm not looking for short term trades or expect to take any result as gospel - where others here seem to have done.   I read many, many, investment blogs and follow some closely.  For me -- Armstrong is very insightful and has saved me thousands on trades I was going to make.  So don't feel sorry for me - I'm fine with whatever money I want to pay out for his service.  I've done my due diligence and read many of his writings and his substantial book that I posted a link to earlier.  I know he's not a big fan of bitcoin which probably partially explains the negativity toward him. 

 



 

[trulycoined]

While others have had a bad experience with Armstrong - my experience has been wholly positive.   I'm not looking for short term trades or expect to take any result as gospel - where others here seem to have done.   I read many, many, investment blogs and follow some closely.  For me -- Armstrong is very insightful and has saved me thousands on trades I was going to make.  So don't feel sorry for me - I'm fine with whatever money I want to pay out for his service.  I've done my due diligence and read many of his writings and his substantial book that I posted a link to earlier.  I know he's not a big fan of bitcoin which probably partially explains the negativity toward him. 

I don't think it is a "bad experience", it is simply fact-checking and seeking the truth. Likewise, a lot of people on this thread are no bitcoin "fanboys" and actually, MA DID correctly call the high in bitcoin Jan 2018. What a shame Socrates was incapable of forecasting April 2019 as another stellar buying opportunity, and it is that inconsistency that feeds rather than quells the doubts about Socrates. So to your point, a lot of people on this thread have not traded on any MA calls, nor are they bitcoin cultists, so they have no axe to grind.

I'm also much like you. I do not day trade, I instead like to invest in "safer" asset classes with more predictable outcomes and invest over the longer term.

However, MA falls flat there as well. Here are some great examples, to repeat the previous 20 pages or so:
2008 - Expect a recovery into 2009, then a crash into 2013, before it picks up again into 2015.75, then another crash. WRONG.
2011 - Expect US property prices to begin declining for 20 years. WRONG.
2011 - Recession in the US after 2015.75. WRONG.
2011 - Major global sovereign debt crisis to begin 2015.75. WRONG.
2013 - share buy backs are a warning light - Sell APPL. WRONG.
2019 - political/economic/banking "chaos" coming to Europe May 2019. WRONG.

Can you give some examples of where MA has saved you thousands on trades you were going to make?

[AnonymousCoder]

...
However, MA falls flat there as well. Here are some great examples, to repeat the previous 20 pages or so:
2008 - Expect a recovery into 2009, then a crash into 2013, before it picks up again into 2015.75, then another crash. WRONG.
2011 - Expect US property prices to begin declining for 20 years. WRONG.
2011 - Recession in the US after 2015.75. WRONG.
2011 - Major global sovereign debt crisis to begin 2015.75. WRONG.
2013 - share buy backs are a warning light - Sell APPL. WRONG.
2019 - political/economic/banking "chaos" coming to Europe May 2019. WRONG.
...

It appears that even his famous one about the 1987 crash was hindsight not a forecast:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg13594110#msg13594110

I would love to see that under the microscope (time line with sources).

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

[trulycoined]

...
However, MA falls flat there as well. Here are some great examples, to repeat the previous 20 pages or so:
2008 - Expect a recovery into 2009, then a crash into 2013, before it picks up again into 2015.75, then another crash. WRONG.
2011 - Expect US property prices to begin declining for 20 years. WRONG.
2011 - Recession in the US after 2015.75. WRONG.
2011 - Major global sovereign debt crisis to begin 2015.75. WRONG.
2013 - share buy backs are a warning light - Sell APPL. WRONG.
2019 - political/economic/banking "chaos" coming to Europe May 2019. WRONG.
...

It appears that even his famous one about the 1987 crash was hindsight not a forecast:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg13594110#msg13594110

I would love to see that under the microscope (time line with sources).

Interesting thread. There is a LOT of great content here. I'm beginning to suspect that might be the case about his 1987 "forecast" as well. MA knows people do not have memories that stretch back to the 1980s or 70s even, and most of those of that generation are unlikely to be avid internet users, where now he is far more easily scrutinised.

I just tried searching for any article published 1980-87 where MA was forecasting the 1987 crash. Couldn't find anything other than one about his enormous consulting fees from the early 80s. It might require trawling through article archives either paid or at a library, which isn't really worth the time/money unless someone is a private investigator and wants to take MA to court.

There appears to be no report or news article from before the 1987 crash where MA made such a prediction. All that did happen is the Brady Commission engaged MA and he "provided all the important research for the Brady Commission upon request". However, the official Brady report has no mention of either MA nor his Princeton Economics as it was known back then:
https://archive.org/details/reportofpresiden01unit/page/n13

So IF he was involved in the Brady Commission report, he can't have played a particularly big role. Perhaps more sales BS to exaggerate what he perceives as good things to cement his credibility?

This is MA's letter to Reagan from 1985:
https://d33wjekvz3zs1a.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Martin-Armstrong-to-President-Reagan-October-25-1985.pdf

And there is no mention of an impending crash, despite MA explaining in another blog post (2013):
I have told the story how after objecting to the formation of G5 in 1985 warning that they would increase volatility, create a crash within 2 years (2.15 years), and destabilize the global economy, the White House responded that no one agreed with use about volatility would rise or this would lead to a crash

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/its-global-even-the-brady-commission-revealed-that-in-1987/

However, that same Brady Commission report "concluded that the failure of stock markets and derivatives markets to operate in sync was the major factor behind the crash", which was not to do with exchange rate volatility that MA was arguing would destabilise the economy.

So once again this looks like classic MA where it is very difficult to conclude:
1. What he forecast
2. What he WAS forecasting
3. Whether what he WAS forecasting didn't happen, but the ambiguity means he can still claim he DID forecast "something".

Ditto his forecast about the 1998 ruble crisis. There appears to be no resources online from before that period that proves beyond doubt he really did forecast it.

What is most curious is almost all of these "forecasts" seem to have appeared post-2011, when MA was released from jail. Of those forecasts made since then, his strike rate has been poor or they are so ambiguous, you can't help but remain sceptical.

[over45]

I don't have the time or inclination to address the past couple of posts - except to say that you shouldn't take any theory as gospel and need to fully understand all factors when taking investment advice.  Personally I think Armstrong was set-up and the govt. is corrupt.  I mean - who here doesn't think the govt. is corrupt?  Isn't that the very foundation for establishing bitcoin?  I've heard from someone else using Socrates who tells me the reversal system is working for them and they are making steady profits -- so how can that be ?   What do they know that the haters here don't ?    

I will comment on one prediction made - decline in real estate.  Real estate values are location specific and there has been a slow steady decline globally in values (not necessarily dollars (cost does not equal value)) - primarily in areas with higher tax burdens.  Historically speaking interest rates should be around 6.5% - and when they tried to raise them up to 5% - there were mass builder bankruptcies.  The govt had to bail out Fannie/Freddie -- pump in trillions and the FHA has become the subprime lender.  Don't think for a minute real estate isn't declining because it is and it is one of the main reasons we are where we are now with some of the lowest interest rates in history.  On top of that they suspended traditional accounting practices for banks so they don't have to mark their assets to market.  It's smoke and mirrors and artificial in many areas.  Some regions are hot and some ice cold.  Take interest rates back up to historical levels and see what happens.  We would not need any of this intervention if things were at all normal.

So this is an example of how one's interpretation of a prediction can be different than that of someone else.  To me it's clear as day because I know how to connect all the dots.

With the Fed's caving last week -- we may be witnessing the final nail in the coffin for any hope of prudent fiscal policy.  Everything Armstrong has predicted is slowly coming together - maybe not at the exact time frame most expect - but everything is converging.  

[AnonymousCoder]

Gold Bubble Pops

Everybody can see this with the naked eye since all of last last week. The USD index creeps back up, and GLD ETF tonnage moves down while the miners are still rallying. Gold up, bonds up, stocks up, dollar up. Everything up. Something has to give.

Marting Armstrong sits in front of his Socrates contraption and writes in his Private Blog:

The numbers are the numbers.

No sell signal anywhere. Useless.

Wait for the "I told you so" comments to come out shortly.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

[bleachberu]

To update everyone, MA will be posting monthly and quarterly endings in his PB which should come out later today or tom. Would be interesting to read what he has to say now that G20 is over and markets will pop with relief.

I think we should just track Gold to test the accuracy and prowess of Socrates. His magic number ($1,362) was broken in June and closed above it for monthly.

Cheers

[AnonymousCoder]

The Smoking Gun

Socrates Weekly Reversal System fails, misses important Rally. Still Armstrong claims Success.


In the Private Blog https://www.ask-socrates.com/Blog/Article/5d11792c1dd9531ae8f54b67 Martin Armstrong claims:

Gold & the Rally to $1432
Tuesday, 25 June 2019
By: Marty Armstrong
...
We have so far elected three Weekly Bullish Reversals from the last low ...
...

and in the report:

SOCRATES Detailed Analysis
THE IMMEDIATE ANALYTICAL STANCE AS OF THE CLOSE OF Mon. Jun. 24, 2019:
...
This market on the weekly level has been making new highs since the last low established 4 weeks ago, which is a turn to the upside for now. We did elect four Bullish Reversals which implies we have had a broad change in trend on this level.
...


So let us check when these four Weekly Bullish Reversals were elected:

From some time before the last low, generously counting, we move forward in time and track:

Closest Weekly published Bullish Reversals:

Date - - - - - Close Reversal - Comment
2019-05-10 128740 132590 - Reversal too high to elect
2019-05-17 127570 131480 - Reversal too high to elect
2019-05-24 128360 129100 - Reversal too high to elect
2019-05-31 131110 131480 - Reversal too high to elect
2019-06-07 134610 136270 - Reversal too high to elect
2019-06-14 134450 134990 - Reversal too high to elect
2019-06-21 140010 144370 - Reversal too high to elect

This is evidence that not a single published Weekly Bullish Reversal was elected during this seven week rally. Unfortunately, Socrates pushed the Reversals higher and higher, out of reach.

The three reversals he claims in the blog, and the four reversals in the report are fake phantom reversals that cannot be traded because nobody can see them in time. They are created in hindsight, after the fact.

With this, we now have evidence that the use of phantom fake reversals, the claim of their election, is systemic fraud. The user is shown a track record of multiple profitable buy signals (election of Bullish Reversals following a positive trend) where in fact the system failed every time to create them.

These "Reversals" are generated and counted in hindsight, as designed, intentionally, coded by a computer programmer.

We also call them Revision Signals

https://armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com/2019/07/revision-signals.html

This is very important because the system does not provide any other history that shows its performance record.

Socrates is designed to lie about its forecasting performance.

To remove any doubt about the author of these false claims, we quote Martin Armstrong himself who writes at

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/att-the-biggest-traitor-to-the-american-people/

The coding of the actual AI trading and structure of analysis is done ONLY by myself.

He also claims at

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/products_services/socrates/socrates-project-update-new-versions-beginning-this-week/

that his computer software, named Socrates, is a clone of himself. So clearly this is a computer code equivalent of one of his behavioral defects.


See also:

"Fake Daily Reversals"
 

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

The System of the Martin Armstrong
Scam

I need to start with an assumption that the objective of his system is to generate income for Martin Armstrong not to serve the public good in some fashion (financed by some mysterious fund).

He tries to project an image of himself as savior of humanity, see

The Revenge of Martin Armstrong

Socrates is my gift to all my supporters. It will be writing commentary long after I am gone as long as there is still a power grid.

and others.

We can see immediately that like most scammers he offers some free material upfront as bait and uses his services as the hook.

Let us first explore how his bait system works. In the widest sense he uses multiple publishing channels - not only his own blog site - to attract as many clients as possible. He needs to cast his net on an extremely wide scale because he seems to lose a large number of clients - this number has to be replenished constantly.

He uses 3rd party sites, mostly finance sites, that host some of his content, projecting a positive image of himself while linking back to his own site which contains even more bait and the hooks. In return, he has arrangements with these sites to re-publish some of his bait content. Perfect. Below are some examples:

Martin A. Armstrong: convicted felon, shameless conman, schizophrenic crackpot & financial comedian

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

[trulycoined]

Does MA read this thread?

We have criticised his bad calls on the property market, and today this gets posted:
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/real_estate/german-real-estate-the-peripheral-market-rally/

And still there is more moving of the goal posts.

It is true house price growth in major cities like London has slumped since end of 2014 (not 2015), but that is HPI growth NOT value. Value has been shooting up every year since the 2009 crash:

https://www.home.co.uk/guides/house_prices_report.htm?location=london&all=1

Back in 2015, MA claimed London housing market had peaked:
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrong-economics-upcoming-events/world-economic-conference/london-property-market/

And explained that same year:
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/western_europe/london-property-market-crashing/

The London property boom is over and looking at the other side of 2015.75 is starting to appear like an abyss

The thing is, house price growth peaked Q4 2014, some 7 months before any of these articles. And after 2015.75, London property price growth shot up again, before declining again middle 2016. So did MA really forecast this, or was he simply making the claim after it was patently obvious what was going on?:
https://data.london.gov.uk/housing/housing-market-report/

I could find no article on MA's blog from 2014 that warned of the impending London house price (growth) "crash".

If you were an MA follower, perhaps that would be your call to then sell up? Had you, a gain of 30-40% would have been missed if only you had held on until 2018. Property prices have begin declining since then owing to tax regulations changing and landlords, particularly buy-to-let, which makes up a sizeable proportion of central London housing stock, selling up. That has seen property prices decline as more stock enters the market. One and two-beds are being particularly hard hit as they are popular in the rental market, but alas buyers aren't going near them.

So on a long enough time frame, MA can be seen as "correct", but then it's no different to predicting a recession. When it inevitably happens, you can then claim you called it. So once again he appears to be forecasting the future when that event has already happened and nor was it even clear what he did forecast: was it property price growth or value? They are both very different things and the former isn't necessarily a bad thing, where other asset classes might be loss making or see even slower growth.

[s29]

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/real_estate/german-real-estate-the-peripheral-market-rally/

Nevertheless, the rise in the German market has been about 50% since 2015. When we look at it in dollars, the gain is about 10% less.

Such a great call Marty! You would guess that the German real estate markets would have collapsed, as Armstrong was consistently bearish about the EU economy going into the abyss. Oops! Then he of course refers to the real estate market in USD terms, like he's got it all right. Marty, dude, it's still up 10%, it didn't crash Well I guess Draghi's policies actually did work, sort of.

[nattybear]

I am still open to the idea that the Reversals may work. I am going to check them later. Maybe Socrates is good at technical analysis. Who knows?

However, if someone claims anything, the burden of evidence lies upon the one making the claim, not the other party. There has been a mountain of evidence on this thread that Armstrong's claims are just that- claims. There is no evidence in favor, only against. Even if some of that evidence can be waved away, there are still many  things that remain and have not been adequately addressed, if at all. Cycle/array models are known to be trash. Armstrong claims to have made calls to predict large scale financial disasters in advance to the day but when he does it in real time, it is always ambiguous. Then he claims he called it. That is dishonest. He won't give a black or white answer. He should instead say he made a trade and why in real time. Not once did he ever do so. He also claims to have an office, a supercomputer, a talking AI decades before they came out these days, a huge database from coins and money he compiled himself, and so on. Evidence for those claims, please. Otherwise I could do the same thing.

I think this is worth reflecting on.

There is some junk on Socrates (mostly the opinion stuff), and I simply ignore it

What actually works?  Can you use weekly/monthly reversals to a reasonable degree of profit?  Can Arrays improve the probability of Reversal moves?  Is it worth the investment for that alone?

I approached Customer service as I am looking for a system to place Tail hedges on market retracements (2-3 month periods).  I was asking about the October to December share market pull back and how the reversals flagged this.   They showed me a daily reversal chart picking the move.  Why would I be looking at daily reversals for an event that was 2-3 months in movement?  I would focus on weekly and monthly triggers.  From that perspective this would simply not meet my needs. 

As others have mentioned the reversals are hit and miss. I have found the daily levels useful at times - although only as a confirmation tool for my existing system.

While I've been following the system (6mths+) the weekly reversals that have been hit all would have led to a loss-making trade based on MA/Socrates timing. I've mentioned this on several occasions but he categorically missed the last two market run-ups and was bearish immediately beforehand.

Example: A weekly bearish reversal was elected at the end of May. Mkt closed around 24,800. He called for 23,700 (he actually gave 3 or 4 numbers across multiple posts - zero consistency). Over the next 3 weeks, within the timeframe that MA/Socrates says the next target should be moved towards, the market puts on 2,000ts (to current levels)... His recommended stop loss? 25,885... A 1,000 fricken point stop loss...

I've been paying the pro subscription which will lapse next week and I won't be renewing. The primary reasons being, my system is able to capture the majority of the technical analysis which Socrates provides (i.e. reversals) so value add for the spend isn't there, and, MA is not able to accurately predict market movements even though his sensationalist writing attempts otherwise. The impact of that is that a users perspective is influenced incorrectly and undermines confidence.

Do you mind giving me the number for the bearish reversal that was elected?

Happily - there were two weekly bearish reversals hit on the DJIA.

Direct from MA's website....

25,372.25 Bearish Week of May 27 2019   
25,207.90 Bearish Week of May 27 2019

There were also several daily reversals hit in the last couple days of that week. Market reversed and piled on 1,000pts in the following week. All of MA's calls/inpretations are in the blog posts. The weekly levels is what he relied on in making the prediction that the market would subsequently fall to 23,700.

[psp777]

Well, no more bashing from me... The Socrates system and MA simply missed the DOW move from January to the current all time highs. Even an email to the team I asked about the arrays a couple of months ago and directly asked if Socrates had missed the December low and rally. They said yeah it had missed the rally, but not the break out...well fast forward and here we are... So for me no more wasting time bashing something that doesn't work. Not to mention gold..ugh. 

I understand the need to inform people...thank you

[olegrey]

Do you mind giving me the number for the bearish reversal that was elected?

Sorry to step in but I think since I have the numbers ...

Not aware of a DJI weekly bearish but would not be surprised if there was one.

However:

SP500 Weekly Bearish: 284862, Date Elected: 2019-05-24, Future Date (1 period): 2019-05-31, Future close  275206, GAIN: 2.6%

So you get a profit if you trade one week. I am too lazy to check the 3 week result. Perhaps a loss.

olegrey, this is what I am saying, as long as the system does not say what the trading period is 1, 2, or 3 weeks, a reversal is actually worthless.

Keep researching   Perhaps in a few years, you will come to the same conclusion that I have.

Tip: Study data science. Is quicker.

You could be right and the trading pattern of 1, 2, or 3 weeks could be completely random after the election of the reversal, but I need to see it for myself.  There was some mild success from our feasibility study, so would you be willing to share your cache of thousands of reversals so that I can conduct a comprehensive study?  If you are right, and the election of a reversals leads to a random 1, 2, or 3 week success, I will agree that the reversals are completely worthless, but I need to see for myself.  I'm sure all the martin doubters here are intelligent and trustworthy people, but a flaw of mine is I've always needed to investigate for myself and not talking the word of people who are probably smarter than I am.  I will send you my throwaway email in a private message. I will keep all the data private if you request.  If you are right and martin is a complete fraud, help me see the light by allowing me to investigate his reversals and not just on the word of mouth from the people on this board.  

[AnonymousCoder]

Do you mind giving me the number for the bearish reversal that was elected?

Sorry to step in but I think since I have the numbers ...

Not aware of a DJI weekly bearish but would not be surprised if there was one.

However:

SP500 Weekly Bearish: 284862, Date Elected: 2019-05-24, Future Date (1 period): 2019-05-31, Future close 275206, GAIN: 2.6%

So you get a profit if you trade one week. I am too lazy to check the 3 week result. Perhaps a loss.

olegrey, this is what I am saying, as long as the system does not say what the trading period is 1, 2, or 3 weeks, a reversal is actually worthless.

Keep researching Perhaps in a few years, you will come to the same conclusion that I have.

Tip: Study data science. Is quicker.

You could be right and the trading pattern of 1, 2, or 3 weeks could be completely random after the election of the reversal, but I need to see it for myself. There was some mild success from our feasibility study, so would you be willing to share your cache of thousands of reversals so that I can conduct a comprehensive study? If you are right, and the election of a reversals leads to a random 1, 2, or 3 week success, I will agree that the reversals are completely worthless, but I need to see for myself. I'm sure all the martin doubters here are intelligent and trustworthy people, but a flaw of mine is I've always needed to investigate for myself and not talking the word of people who are probably smarter than I am. I will send you my throwaway email in a private message. I will keep all the data private if you request. If you are right and martin is a complete fraud, help me see the light by allowing me to investigate his reversals and not just on the word of mouth from the people on this board.

See Socrates Customer Support, say you are from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and request reversal history of the last 2 years monthly, weekly, daily.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain