Martin Armstrong Discussion

[marcus_of_augustus]

Armstrong's models all broke when GAAP were suspended by statute of congress to allow insolvent banks to remain trading (and keep banksters out of jail for trading while knowingly insolvent) and fed. res. went QE crazy ... never worked since, we are living in a wonderland of financial mirrors and mirages

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[over45]

I have NO DOUBT that he reads this thread.

If you think he reads this thread and responds to your posts by drafting corresponding blog posts - you are in need of a reality check.   

[Kiwibird]

There was that one Canadian guy online here who apparently uses Socrates to trade. https://www.mininginteractive.com/ Does anyone know his performance?

..And these guys; https://integratedwealthmanagement.ca/learned-martin-armstrongs-orlando-conference/

'..1) Socrates is NOT supposed to be used as a day-trading platform

2) Socrates should be used in tandem with an existing disciplined framework, including proper diversification, disciplined trade execution, moderate trading frequency, and with very disciplined risk management in place

3) Our managers will utilize Socrates to make sure Client portfolios:

Are on the right side of every major currency move
Are over-weighted in asset classes that have the best risk : reward potential
Avoid major losses from high-risk asset classes, and possibly benefit by shorting these asset classes..'


i'm not a trader in any sense.  But I use Armstrong as a macro road map and i'm in the green because of it.
If i'd listened to someone like Jim Rickards who wrote The Death of the Dollar years ago and pushes gold all the time, I'd be in the red for sure.

[Kiwibird]

It appears that even his famous one about the 1987 crash was hindsight not a forecast:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg13594110#msg13594110

I would love to see that under the microscope (time line with sources).

Michael Campbell (https://mikesmoneytalks.ca) is on tape confirming Armstrong called him personally in 1989 on the day of the Nikkei high, to advise that was the high and that it would fall, never to return to those numbers again in his lifetime.  

at 21mins - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a5lG0-hjkrA

Do you believe him?

[AnonymousCoder]

It appears that even his famous one about the 1987 crash was hindsight not a forecast:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg13594110#msg13594110

I would love to see that under the microscope (time line with sources).

Michael Campbell (https://mikesmoneytalks.ca) is on tape confirming Armstrong called him personally in 1989 on the day of the Nikkei high, to advise that was the high and that it would fall, never to return to those numbers again in his lifetime.

at 21mins - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a5lG0-hjkrA

Do you believe him?

No. That would be religuous. In this space where people present single observations based on opinion without any statistical value as facts, it would be foolish to believe anyone. Do you believe that The Forecaster movie is anything other than what is widely seen as a name clearing platform, orchestrated by Armstrong himself?

I acknowledge facts only. There needs to be evidence that the record was produced to a large audience when the prediction was made, before the event, not after it. Very simple. Check the Wikipedia entry for Martin Armstrong and you get a fairly good picture. If you follow the Wikipedia sources about the 1987 crash forecast, you will see that even Wikipedia is not correct. The so-called forecast was after the event. Accurracy is very important here. Some time in the future perhaps someone will set the record straight. I have seen that over time, Wikipedia entries become more accurate, more specific, more nuanced because people add their wisdom.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

[psp777]

There was that one Canadian guy online here who apparently uses Socrates to trade. https://www.mininginteractive.com/ Does anyone know his performance?

That guy is a fraud. He lies about his profits and claims he day traded his way out of mistakes. He pumps gold private placement stocks that he is involved with. Has been preaching gold will go to 980 for years...and still says it

beware

[footlong24seven]

Ok so after reading through all this it's apparent that Socrates is a shifting goalposts only right in hindsight sometimes program. For trading.

Long term calls may be a little more interesting since he is talking about the next cycle being commodities and inflation come the ECM. Some of his MACRO calls have been spot on. His writings from prison were scathingly entertaining but he was able to make good macro calls even from prison. However this isn't Socrates, this is MA. I'd like to separate Soc from MA in this context. He bases his long term calls off Socrates (maybe?) but again the evidence is flimsy at best. Sometimes, more so in the past, he hits it right on the head. But lately he's been not calling the lows and telling you to sell while we blow through ATHs. He is human after all and may start getting to be out of touch.

I'm interested in his book. He also mentioned in a very recent blog about the loss of the "feel" of trading and how he wants to bring that back. Also mentioned integrating his systems with medical technology. I'm all for progress the private market will sort and figure out what it's worth.

He shouldn't leave without giving up whatever secrets he's discovered. That would be a shame, if any of you still believe he has the "silver bullet" as one of the posters above mentioned. If he claims to have the secret code to everything why not share it post mortem at the very least. If what he has is so profound he should write papers. We're still waiting for Geometry of Time.

MA, we know you read this thread. Please continue blogging on law and politics, and MACRO. Your pieces on Assets vs Money, and how interest rates rising leads to a rising stock market, were pretty prizeworthy reads. Your article about Elizabeth Warren's Wealth Tax singularly destroys the idea. Your level of knowledge in law in history and the perspectives you have are sometimes very fresh. We all remember the gaffe with the prostitution we forgive you.

Please finish your books MA and spell out the hidden secrets. Like you said only 10% of the population will listen anyway =P 

[AnonymousCoder]

...
I'd like to separate Soc from MA in this context.
...

We really can't separate Martin Armstrong from Socrates because they are the same thing as he said here:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/ai-computers/the-most-valuable-lesson-we-can-teach-our-children-is-how-to-think-not-what-to-think/

I am always still improving Socrates. As I said, it is my clone. Every trick of the trade I have learned I taught the system and I and always still learning so I had to write the code to allow Socrates to also learn as I have throughout life.

Sorry. Rev Martin Armstrong has spoken. Not my words.

Meanwhile, his epic statement neatly explains why Socrates is lying in the same style as Martin Armstrong does :

The Smoking Gun



Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

[luckyplate]

Latest gold update from Martin private blog. Gold to retest support at 1362. .. technical resistance at 1275. If fail expect more downside. If 1362 holds the next top is around 1480. A bull market might start to emerge next if 1300 level base is building up.

...
I'd like to separate Soc from MA in this context.
...

We really can't separate Martin Armstrong from Socrates because they are the same thing as he said here:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/ai-computers/the-most-valuable-lesson-we-can-teach-our-children-is-how-to-think-not-what-to-think/

I am always still improving Socrates. As I said, it is my clone. Every trick of the trade I have learned I taught the system and I and always still learning so I had to write the code to allow Socrates to also learn as I have throughout life.

Sorry. Rev Martin Armstrong has spoken. Not my words.

Meanwhile, his epic statement neatly explains why Socrates is lying  :

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg51666429#msg51666429



Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud

[over45]

It appears many "traders" here expected Socrates to be something it is not.  Did anyone read the terms of service or specifics on reversals?

I suspect that the highly critical will call him out if the public/private wave transition doesn't happen to the day.  A prediction he made decades ago and before "QE" was even invented. 

If anyone feels cheated and has purchased his "How to Trade a Vertical Market" report or another report which shows more in-depth predictions on the future of the markets -- I'm possibly buying - please contact me via PM.

Thanks for posting the update on Gold. 

[DanB1]

I bought the "2018 Year End report" which was very bearish on the DAX and DJI, I posted about this earlier.
Long story short, the money I lost would have bought me a nice car.

[nattybear]

It appears many "traders" here expected Socrates to be something it is not.  Did anyone read the terms of service or specifics on reversals?

I suspect that the highly critical will call him out if the public/private wave transition doesn't happen to the day.  A prediction he made decades ago and before "QE" was even invented. 

If anyone feels cheated and has purchased his "How to Trade a Vertical Market" report or another report which shows more in-depth predictions on the future of the markets -- I'm possibly buying - please contact me via PM.

Thanks for posting the update on Gold. 

I find it interesting that you have written this with an accusatory undertone that we are all here to intentionally find out where he fails...

It's not about being hypercritical... It's simply calling his trades out for what they are. There's plenty of examples where his calls haven't played out and as a result, it HAS TO PUT YOU AS A TRADER (or if you prefer "trader") in a position where you need to doubt and have low confidence in his calls.

The example I provided of the DJI and his bear case to 23,700 is the perfect example of why his latest blog posts on gold can't be trusted at face value. Therefore I need to trade my system first and see if he turns out right... If I need to do that and can't trade with confidence in his calls... Then where's the value? If he's right consistently you can incorporate that into your trading - if not - then it only serves as a distraction.

[AnonymousCoder]

...
Therefore I need to trade my system first and see if he turns out right... If I need to do that and can't trade with confidence in his calls... Then where's the value? If he's right consistently you can incorporate that into your trading - if not - then it only serves as a distraction.
...

I agree with you 100%. Nobody really talks about the inefficiency of the Socrates system and what impact this has on trading success. It takes years to master it according to statements made by support staff. And my work to disentangle the system to finally prove beyond any doubt that it is a fraud also took years.

To react in real time and have the data ready to go for this case:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg51666429#msg51666429

That is not something that the average user of the system can do. You need to be prepared for that.


Then if you want to use it in your trading activities, the research you need to perform every day takes so much time that by the time you are finished, the opportunity is already gone. This complicated reversal system is really a legacy from the time where it would have been advantageous because the reversals are available ahead of time in batches and can be sold with reports. Nowadays, immediacy is required, and the reversal system is doomed to fail.

Taking this legacy system online on the web is a bad joke. To make this clear, a minimum requirement would be a stock scanner scanning more than just 1,000 symbols, and the ability to analyze any security dynamically. Meaning to analyze a stock that Socrates has never seen before.

Look at the type of people lurking around here looking for answers. These people have nothing to do all day and will perhaps not even trade.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

[over45]

I don't subscribe to the Socrates level that provides reversals - but I suspect the computer is looking for discernible changes that suggest longer term moves vs. reaction trends -- which I think this move in gold is.  

If you have proof of fraud like you claim - file a lawsuit.   Let us know how that goes.  You are an anonymous poster on a message board and from what I have read -- more angry than credible.

Sounds to me you should watch Oscar:  https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCez8uA1o_fDYsrSf4auWSjg

[olegrey]

Do you mind giving me the number for the bearish reversal that was elected?

Sorry to step in but I think since I have the numbers ...

Not aware of a DJI weekly bearish but would not be surprised if there was one.

However:

SP500 Weekly Bearish: 284862, Date Elected: 2019-05-24, Future Date (1 period): 2019-05-31, Future close  275206, GAIN: 2.6%

So you get a profit if you trade one week. I am too lazy to check the 3 week result. Perhaps a loss.

olegrey, this is what I am saying, as long as the system does not say what the trading period is 1, 2, or 3 weeks, a reversal is actually worthless.

Keep researching  Perhaps in a few years, you will come to the same conclusion that I have.

Tip: Study data science. Is quicker.

You could be right and the trading pattern of 1, 2, or 3 weeks could be completely random after the election of the reversal, but I need to see it for myself.  There was some mild success from our feasibility study, so would you be willing to share your cache of thousands of reversals so that I can conduct a comprehensive study?  If you are right, and the election of a reversals leads to a random 1, 2, or 3 week success, I will agree that the reversals are completely worthless, but I need to see for myself.  I'm sure all the martin doubters here are intelligent and trustworthy people, but a flaw of mine is I've always needed to investigate for myself and not talking the word of people who are probably smarter than I am.  I will send you my throwaway email in a private message. I will keep all the data private if you request.  If you are right and martin is a complete fraud, help me see the light by allowing me to investigate his reversals and not just on the word of mouth from the people on this board. 

See Socrates Customer Support, say you are from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and request reversal history of the last 2 years monthly, weekly, daily.

Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud

I emailed socrates customer support this message
"Do you have any historical data for elected reversals (monthly, weekly, daily) that I could possibly use. The data can be from any year, I would just like to use them for some analysis Thank you"

I didn't say I was from the SEC because I don't have a .gov email and thought it would be unwise to lie to get this data. I got the following response.

"hello

the only place i know would be in the special reports issued over the years. You might want to search the website for  the Old reports"

So it would seem they don't keep a database of elected reversals.  I don't think it would be wise to speculate if armstrong is a fraud based on this response, because I want to make that assertion based on the actual reversal data.  I think you would agree, being a data scientist yourself.  Luckily you have a very large cache of elected reversal data.  I wouldn't need them all, maybe just the elected reversals for the DOW for the past year or couple years.  It is very easy to put into google spreadsheets and share via email, which I have given you in a private message.  I can help you if you are unfamiliar with google spreadsheets.  I don't have the money to buy all the special reports just to conduct a study on the elected reversals so your help is very much appreciated.  I look forward to your email.  Thank you!

[DanB1]

Interesting indeed, guys coming on this board and claiming the incompetence of the people who have posted here, without any proof or evidence that Socrates does work.
Ignoring 288 pages with so many facts that show why Socrates does not work, mediocre results at best.

Personally, I'm still waiting for Gumbi to show us that Socrates does work. He said he would post live trades to proof us wrong:)
I would love to be proven wrong on Socrates, but it will never happen.

[over45]

Interesting indeed, guys coming on this board and claiming the incompetence of the people who have posted here, without any proof or evidence that Socrates does work.
Ignoring 288 pages with so many facts that show why Socrates does not work, mediocre results at best.

Personally, I'm still waiting for Gumbi to show us that Socrates does work. He said he would post live trades to proof us wrong:)
I would love to be proven wrong on Socrates, but it will never happen.

Here is what is posted on the front page of Socrates:

Important Note

Ask-Socrates platform is not an individualized trading advisory service, nor is it a brokerage or money management service. This is a simply an innovative, proprietary research and information system to help broaden perspective, intended to be a supplement to other tools and information members can use to fit their needs.

There is no right or wrong - or put another way - if some are successful using it then they have learned how to use it effectively where others have not.  If you want day-trading advice - go see Oscar.

[nattybear]

I don't subscribe to the Socrates level that provides reversals - but I suspect the computer is looking for discernible changes that suggest longer term moves vs. reaction trends -- which I think this move in gold is.  

If you have proof of fraud like you claim - file a lawsuit.   Let us know how that goes.  You are an anonymous poster on a message board and from what I have read -- more angry than credible.

Sounds to me you should watch Oscar:  https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCez8uA1o_fDYsrSf4auWSjg

Well... Never said anything about fraud... Inability to correctly call market moves, definitely... Last time I check that doesn't break any laws.  

Hope you have success in your trading and as many have mentioned... If you get to a point where you can adequately interpret the vague writing, numbers, systems, and can demonstrate how this board is misguided... Please come back and school me... I'd thank you for it as it'll help me continue to trade more effectively!

[AnonymousCoder]

...
So it would seem they don't keep a database of elected reversals. I don't think it would be wise to speculate if armstrong is a fraud based on this response, because I want to make that assertion based on the actual reversal data.
...

I am addressing one thing at the time, because as we know the issue is complex.

If, as you are suggesting, you had all the reversals for a single market e.g. DJI, then, even if you wanted to, you would not be able to detect fraud. Because even if each and all the reversals would result in trading losses, so what? You trade on your own risk, and I think that Martin Armstrong is perhaps well covered legally here.

If however you can prove that Martin Armstrong has in his code a back door that lets him claim trading success i.e. gain where in fact the trade was a loss, or where Socrates has failed to provide a signal that would have provided you with a gain as claimed, then you have a case.

This case you cannot find with a spreadsheet of all the reversals because it is the reversals that are missing that is the problem.

However, all you need is to point to this URL:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg51666429#msg51666429

This is the proof, this is the case I am talking about. I have made it very easy to see for everybody, because not only is this claim in the report somewhere, no, Martin Armstrong actually reads it out on his blog.

I could not have made it any easier, and you save yourself tons of work. Therefore, I am not going to send you any data. I just don't want that this crisp and clear message is diluted by any side issues that you may find doing your own research.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

[nattybear]

I agree with you 100%. Nobody really talks about the inefficiency of the Socrates system and what impact this has on trading success. It takes years to master it according to statements made by support staff. And my work to disentangle the system to finally prove beyond any doubt that it is a fraud also took years.

To react in real time and have the data ready to go for this case:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg51666429#msg51666429

That is not something that the average user of the system can do. You need to be prepared for that.


Then if you want to use it in your trading activities, the research you need to perform every day takes so much time that by the time you are finished, the opportunity is already gone. This complicated reversal system is really a legacy from the time where it would have been advantageous because the reversals are available ahead of time in batches and can be sold with reports. Nowadays, immediacy is required, and the reversal system is doomed to fail.

Taking this legacy system online on the web is a bad joke. To make this clear, a minimum requirement would be a stock scanner scanning more than just 1,000 symbols, and the ability to analyze any security dynamically. Meaning to analyze a stock that Socrates has never seen before.

Look at the type of people lurking around here looking for answers. These people have nothing to do all day and will perhaps not even trade.

Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud

In many ways putting Socrates online and giving the level of access to data will actually be a detriment to MA and Socrates (if not downfall). More people will trade based on the 'concrete' numbers and commentary... Find it quantitatively lacking and then (hopefully) walk away because now it's clearly measurable. Either it works or it doesn't and he's opened up the platform for everyone to evaluate that in more detail than before...

Of course... He'll probably keep the scores of people who buy into his perspective and showboating but I'd expect any genuine trader who analyses their trades will find Socrates lacking value.