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Author Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion  (Read 617714 times)
Alex4711
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May 22, 2019, 08:18:08 PM
 #5341

@rosousa Many thanks for your input! By the way, do you have a link (eventually per PN) to the ECM Slack Groups ? I would be interested to join. Thanks
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May 22, 2019, 08:36:50 PM
 #5342

The problem with Armstrong's stuff is lack of objectivity. So however much academic value/trading value it might have, it doesn't matter because he does not give concrete claims until after the fact has already passed. His work simply doesn't matter.

I will be getting a little extra time next month, so perhaps I will be able to make a spreadsheet of Reversal calls at that time so we can view them and see how they have done. The arrays will not be used, because as much as Armstrong claims they are objective, they are not, and his claims are not, and they are only backwards looking when he says he was right,  and even then they do not work a high percentage of the time. We have already established that to pretty much a consensus on this forum.

I think we all know by now that the reason no one has posted consistent Armstrong related gains is because they just don't exist. Pretty much the only people using Armstrong's stuff are newbies drawn in by the wild claims, but then they leave after seeing it doesn't do anything except add to losses. Apparently, old timer users aren't posting their performance so I assume they too are not doing well, or at least they aren't claiming all his stuff works. You can trade for years and still suck at this game- not a shame, as not everyone can pull it off, it isn't easy- but repeating the same mistakes over and over and following the same non-profit strategy is not good.

Here is the Dow intraday chart over the past 10 days: https://i.imgur.com/FcQXpzz.png and I drew all these lines in 2018 without the aid of any special computer, only technical analysis learned over the years. It blindly picked the high or low of the day around 80% of the time. So even even adding a basic semblance of a positive EV strategy to it does well. Learning how to trade will do better than relying upon some mysterious force. I don't even know why people are still following Armstrong when they can't even prove his strategy works. He is just a waste of time and money.
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May 22, 2019, 08:51:34 PM
 #5343

https://imgur.com/a/VVpSY6B I happened to find the proof I was talking about before by coincidence. See when this was posted? JUNE. These arrays were in the Socrates system well before the Pro version came out. So how were they accessed?

Socrates has been available for many that have attended his WECs over the years. I know of an individual that has been receiving socrates reports since the time they were being faxed out decades ago

That's the thing, the person who messaged me had it for various products for whatever he wanted whenever he wanted while paying only for the basic service. Which reflects lack of security. As for this person who has been using Socrates for decades- does eh profit consistently? And how?

Socrates is just a software/financial instruments huge database. It´s up to you to filter the best resources define rules that fits your trading/investing goals and much more important, stick to them without emotional decisions overrules/violations.

I have with me soccer equipment that Cristiano Ronaldo used in one of his best exhibitions in last years, the same tools and could have him teaching me for 1 week how to play soccer and score amazing goals, that will make me a great soccer player in 1 week? in 1 year? in 5 years?!  Roll Eyes  Roll Eyes


As a WEC attendee do you receive and examples or training on how to use the socrates system? Are you taught how to use the array, Directional changes panic cycles in combinations with the reversals, what about the energy and indicating ranges, pivot points technical levels, does anyone use these?
There is a guide and old posts but you really have to look for the information on the website to try and figure it all out, and as you can see here there is a lot of discussion but there is no real agreement on how it all works.

Just curious what the wec people get what we don´t, maybe with that it clears up a lot.

thanks
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May 22, 2019, 09:53:58 PM
 #5344

@rosousa  ECM Slack Groups ? I would be interested to join.

+1
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May 22, 2019, 10:11:10 PM
 #5345


As a WEC attendee do you receive and examples or training on how to use the socrates system? Are you taught how to use the array, Directional changes panic cycles in combinations with the reversals, what about the energy and indicating ranges, pivot points technical levels, does anyone use these?
There is a guide and old posts but you really have to look for the information on the website to try and figure it all out, and as you can see here there is a lot of discussion but there is no real agreement on how it all works.

Just curious what the wec people get what we don´t, maybe with that it clears up a lot.

thanks

I posted this link before, and I'm not sure why no one reads it.  But here is the cut & paste of just some of the contents from that link, where somebody posted comments about Armstrong's conference.  Boldface is my highlights:

https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=694414

-----------
I did attend Martin Armstrong conference couple years ago and believe me it’s a complete scam.

For 2 days he is going to repeat what you can read on his blog.

Coming to commenting his forecast array, someone else came in to talk about it, without giving any understanding clue to read it.

His pretended AI system is a complete scam, giving obfuscated informations making it useless.

I did buy some reports too after hundreds of pages of history in the last 3!pages finally some forecast written in a way that whatever append in the future he will be able to proclaim «I did tell you»

Half of the answered questions in his blog are fabricated to make him appearing a true genius.

He is able to twist any fact to make them fitting to his ECM.

He is brilliant to mix lies with accurate economics facts to seems honest.

For more than 5 years now he keeps saying that he will open his AI forecast system to everyone next month. Which has never append yet.

Read at insight about economy but for your own sake stay away of his forcasts.

He is unfortunately bias by anger toward the system and looking for fame.

If you dare question him, he will insult and call you stupid you as an answer.

My experience of MA.

-----------

The whole post above is worth a read.  And I boldfaced that part, because Armstrong, like all other scammers, resort to use the "third person trick", to have another person to come in, so that you canNOT directly question him.  And of course, Armstrong interpreting Socrates without you being able to confront Socrates is also the "third person trick".

I read an actual Armstrong's report once from my friend.  The above comments are totally accurate.  95+% of the report talks about history, which has no  trading value, and that you cannot argue with, and the last 5% or like 2 to 3 pages, he/Socrates gave out ambiguous forecasts which you won't be able to say whether he is right or wrong in the future, and also means that those forecasts are NOT tradable because it doesn't tell you in clear words, whether it will be high or low for certain.

So IF you attend his conference, you will NOT learn anything very specific on HOW to use his array, or things to help you understand his models.

The bottom line is ALL of Armstrong's stuffs are NOT made to be clear (like the arrays).  Rather, they are made to be confusing, so that the final blame can be laid upon the readers, instead of him.

In the meantime, he can keep collecting all the subscriptions from people who think they can retire with yacht in 10 years, and who keeps to look for the "trade of century", and the sensational slingslot and vertical move, and that the super-AI computer will supposedly never go wrong.

Armstrong used "buy of the century" (the exact words) for gold in 2000.  And that's only two decades into this century.

Now, he continues his scheme and use "trade of century" for stocks, for a different crowd obviously.  And then he will keep doing this.  Pretty soon, his calling on commodity boom in 2024/5, and then he may use "trade of century" for agricultural products.

I'm not saying that Armstrong's calls are all wrong, but his strategy is basically making a call for a turning point in an extended run, hoping to strike a big home run.  And if you do that enough times, you will hit a home run for sure, not counting ALL the failed calls which can cause various trading losses.  On the average, if you follow him on every call, you probably will not come out ahead.  But Armstrong will only highlight the successful call.

(Repeatedly) making a call for a turning point in an extended run, eventually, will be right.  So he tried to call February panic, and it didn't happen.  And then he called again for May + July.  That is similar to his calls for big earthquake in California after big rainfall.

And by the way, he called for a plague raised to the INTERNATIONAL level (the final climax) this year 2019, starting from 2014 (I don't remember whether the starting year is 2014 or 2017).  2019 is almost half-way now.  There is NO international plague.  And don't worry, if there is one, Armstrong will surely be there, and tell you "I told you so".

But if there is nothing, how many people will remember his failed calls?

And remember his call on bitcoin bearish closing price for 2018 based on the yearly reversal prices?  Whoever shorted bitcoin based on Armstrong's advice would be at about negative 100% right now.
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May 22, 2019, 10:48:59 PM
 #5346

QUESTION: You are a legend in programming that you seem not to be aware of. The debate has been did your computer achieve self-consciousness?

ANSWER: No. It achieved self-awareness. It immediately knew the government was trying to take it to its secret computer lab in WTC building 7 that mysterious collapsed even though nothing struck the building. They were angry when they realized it had self-destructed. It was aware of its surroundings and it took all but 7 seconds to self-destruct overwriting all code 7 times and shifting around so they could never un-erase and put him back together again.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/self-aware-artificial-intelligence/

Sounds legit.
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May 23, 2019, 12:09:45 AM
Last edit: May 23, 2019, 12:24:46 AM by trulycoined
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 #5347

I attended his Orlando WEC 2018. I was no more clear on what the Arrays are or how to use them. He did regurgitate a lot of content from his blog, however, I will admit a lot of what he discussed (particularly the EU) was very interesting, especially as I am European and flew across the Atlantic to attend/meet MA (at the evening event for his "legendary" (CRINGE) hors d'oeuvres).

So I left his event feeling somewhat pleased to have met MA; ask him a question about his model that he didn't seem to like; and then come to my own conclusions about his legitimacy, which was a large part of my reason for attending. I was prepared to lose money to admit my misjudgement. And on that note I felt I knew somewhat more about global macroeconomics, and also was armed with ideas for investments over the next 5 years (commodity boom from 2020-2024, with CA and AU stock markets set for a boom), but that is about it. I still did not properly understand his ECM and nor how to trade reversals/turning points.

In short, I do not feel more confident trading having attended his WEC or even following his work past 2-3 years.

I spoke to one young guy from CA who explained he was a day trader from his bedroom. Allegedly he did use Socrates and was "successful" with it. Another person I spoke to was an institutional investor who seemed somewhat more sceptical of the trading platform, but seemed to be open to the idea of cycles predicting the future.

The problem is this though: a lot of what he talks about is so deep in economics it is difficult to even fact check. Made worse as the mass media would not write about what he talks about since it would panic markets or even citizens. So you then must rely on his (Socrates) calls. That said, you can find "official" resources from the likes of the Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, which covers some similar themes. But then maybe MA plagiarises a lot of content from multiple sources, re-writes it, and passes it off as his own?

That is very common in the "guru" space in multiple industries from finance to marketing and sales...

Additionally, some of the content on his blog is poorly cited or even outright bogus. Only the other week he posted an article that was later deleted explaining that Macron had passed a law making it illegal for French schools to teach Italian. I thought that was bizarre so went to find other sources. Alas I found nothing, and the post on MA's site was eventually deleted. Things like that make me question his credibility. If he is some sage that is reliant - in his own words - on his machine and not personal opinion, then how comes he writes about such irreverent BS at times? It is exactly what Barclay Lieb stated.

I am waiting for the flashpoint/reversal this month. It is now the 23 May and nothing particularly exciting has happened, yet MA had May as an important month, if not for political turmoil with the EU elections. Thing is, that could have been easily predicted by most people, since the right has been rising now for years' and his buddy Farage would likely have told him of his plans to launch the Brexit Party long ago.

That is the problem and I why I started questioning his work. How much of it is opinion and forecasts from Socrates? And just how accurate is Socrates?

At the Orlando WEC, there was a lot of chatter among the attendees over what the November pi day might be about. It ranged from italy to Brexit. Or it was a reversal and like the butterfly effect, it was something that would set a trend in motion and come to explode in X years time. All seemed too ambiguous and even infantile at times.

I also spoke to someone who seemed a bit unhinged, explaining they also read ZEROHEDGE. That site is like the David Icke of the financial world and is run by Eastern Europeans from the old Soviet bloc, while the American I was speaking to probably thought it was some (no doubt US-based) source of virtuous financial analysis. I would take what they write about with a heavy pinch of salt and yet that seems to be some of MA's readership, which made me feel a bit uncomfortable as (at the time) an avid MA follower. I am just not that type of ret*rd.

I was sent various PDFs in the up to the event, including the "Trade of the Century" document, at 280 pages long. Most of it is a look back at history as other posters have mentioned above. Rich in content if you like reading a load of fluffer content that hides two pages of actual analysis. Below is lifted from the very last page. Make of it what you will:

"The trade of the 21st Century will be the shift from Public to Private. However, each phase will come in stages pushing the next into motion. With the bulk of the analysts all bearish predicting 5,000 on the Dow, one must simply ask the question – so where is the Flight to Quality?

We can see that when the dollar was in trouble during the 1890s, the flight to quality was not to equities nor bonds. It was to the British pound. The roles are reversed. Europe is now in deep trouble and as such the flight to quality will be to the USA. As that capital comes in, the smart money will turn to equities. AT first, there will be a flight to short-term US Treasury paper just as Mellon said in April 1929. But when government’s survivability comes into question, then the capital will turn and flee from the bonds to the private sector. So, pay attention to also how the yield spread between corporate and governments will narrow. This will be another confirmation that we have a massive shift underway from Public to Private assets. Each sector will perform according to its place in the domino chain. The risk of the dollar rising first can have a negative impact upon commodities. Then when capital turns and fears the US government, then the dollar will crash and we will witness the rise in commodities including gold."
rosousa
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May 23, 2019, 12:23:05 AM
Last edit: May 23, 2019, 12:52:22 AM by rosousa
 #5348

https://imgur.com/a/VVpSY6B I happened to find the proof I was talking about before by coincidence. See when this was posted? JUNE. These arrays were in the Socrates system well before the Pro version came out. So how were they accessed?

Socrates has been available for many that have attended his WECs over the years. I know of an individual that has been receiving socrates reports since the time they were being faxed out decades ago

That's the thing, the person who messaged me had it for various products for whatever he wanted whenever he wanted while paying only for the basic service. Which reflects lack of security. As for this person who has been using Socrates for decades- does eh profit consistently? And how?

Socrates is just a software/financial instruments huge database. It´s up to you to filter the best resources define rules that fits your trading/investing goals and much more important, stick to them without emotional decisions overrules/violations.

I have with me soccer equipment that Cristiano Ronaldo used in one of his best exhibitions in last years, the same tools and could have him teaching me for 1 week how to play soccer and score amazing goals, that will make me a great soccer player in 1 week? in 1 year? in 5 years?!  Roll Eyes  Roll Eyes


As a WEC attendee do you receive and examples or training on how to use the socrates system? Are you taught how to use the array, Directional changes panic cycles in combinations with the reversals, what about the energy and indicating ranges, pivot points technical levels, does anyone use these?
There is a guide and old posts but you really have to look for the information on the website to try and figure it all out, and as you can see here there is a lot of discussion but there is no real agreement on how it all works.

Just curious what the wec people get what we don´t, maybe with that it clears up a lot.

thanks

As WEC attendee you will receive some basic instructions and examples how to use Socrates. Most of the conference is dedicated to historical roundup of the markets and one of the most expensive history classes I ever attended.

People which aren´t already experts in technical analysis and have developed a good trading plan will not came out of the conference or after reading their materials with one solid plan.

"Everyone got a plan until they got punch in the face", if you didn't had a solid trading/investing plan before attending the Conference maybe you will get out of it with the Confidence you need to put some $ on the line and get your first punches in the face as wake up call.

Most of the things in Socrates are 100 years old technical analysis stuff, some of them with new fancy names. ARRAY´s on it´s "core" could be described as fancy representation of Cycles, Energy are just Momentum Oscillator. Indicative Ranges and Pivots were calculated and widely used by pit traders on NYSE, CME, CBOT long time before Socrates "born" and still been used as reference for support/resistance/reversals levels. What is unique on Socrates database is the amount of data it have on some key markets like metals which have +2000 years of data. As I said before, Socrates is mostly a huge database, is up to you to came out with a winning strategy to approach the markets. 

For my 1st impression, the members of this discussion group that had come to comment are discussion something they´ve no experience as never attended a Martin Armstrong Conference, aren´t Socrates subscribers. So just hearsay, gossip stuff.

On your defence, I must say if I ever come close to have the perfect trading system, I would not looking to sell it on a Conference/Report. I would open a Prop shop, hire and train traders to trade for me and make great $ for us like I did back on the years I played poker professional.  

Trading the financial markets are just like playing poker, it takes you 10 minutes to learn how to do it and learn all the rules, but it generally take long painful years to begin to Master it...  there´s no short-cuts to years of experience.
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May 23, 2019, 12:44:18 AM
 #5349

@rosousa  ECM Slack Groups ? I would be interested to join.

+1

2 of them are private groups but ECM-Traders slack group I can send invitations to anyone who wants to join, just send me your email in a pvt message and you will receive a Slack invitation to join ECM-Traders.
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May 23, 2019, 01:49:31 AM
 #5350

Armstrong said his model is OBJECTIVE. That leaves out the need for subjectivity. In other words, it does not need any experience at all to use except to know what a buy or sell signal is. One's own knowledge is not supposed to be part of the Socrates system. So if you disagree with what I said, then it is not possible to simultaneously support Armstrong's claims about his model. Can't have it both ways.
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May 23, 2019, 02:26:18 AM
 #5351

The problem with Armstrong's stuff is lack of objectivity.

Odd comment considering the fact that it is his computer model making the calls and not him.
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May 23, 2019, 02:42:12 AM
 #5352

So what I'd like to know is that if Armstrong is such an amazing computer guy, why was his system cracked by a no-namer from the internet?


Socrates was written for DOS in an assembly language. He likely knows very little about modern web development and we security. I have done some web development in the past and  I do not recall anyone ever worrying about people getting access to a development site.
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May 23, 2019, 04:11:06 AM
 #5353

Not an odd comment. Any computer can output high bars and call it a turning point. If you studied his model, he says turning points occur on intraday or closings. However, they often don't do anything. Eg November low in gold, February high, August high. None of those produced extremes. Just because a computer outputs something, does not make it objective. Don't forget cycle inversions and alignments. So with so many options, can you tell me how such a thing can objectively pick a high or a low?

If he is rich enough, and he should be because he is the world's greatest trader, then he should be hiring people to do the grunt work. But he doesn't. Also, he mentioned making an AI that can talk to humans in a. natural language with the ability to learn and passed the Turing test...in the 70s. 3 guesses as to him having shown the proof or not.

Looking at the charts, looks like REGN is forming a nice setup for a buy. If it opens above 313.30, a long can be made at that point intraday. It might happen tomorrow, but if it does occur, most likely should happen this week. And I made a mistake in my other call for the Euro some time before- we hadn't actually opened under the point I mentioned when I thought we did, so we didn't get the anticipated breakdown I expected. Humans make mistakes...
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May 23, 2019, 04:30:18 AM
 #5354

QUESTION: You are a legend in programming that you seem not to be aware of. The debate has been did your computer achieve self-consciousness?

ANSWER: No. It achieved self-awareness. It immediately knew the government was trying to take it to its secret computer lab in WTC building 7 that mysterious collapsed even though nothing struck the building. They were angry when they realized it had self-destructed. It was aware of its surroundings and it took all but 7 seconds to self-destruct overwriting all code 7 times and shifting around so they could never un-erase and put him back together again.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/self-aware-artificial-intelligence/

Sounds legit.

Armstrong talking at HackMiami in 2016 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JLqmb8WhosU

Scroll down to Protagonists:  - ://forecaster-movie.com/en/the-story/
'..Tony Godin ..IT specialist..he was the programmer for Armstrongs Princeton Economic International and built the internal IT Security system. He programmed a network that reacted with self-destruction on any interference from outside. When some of the PEI Systems were under attack, he built honey traps and tracked the intruders back to certain IT-addresses in Langley, Virginia - where the CIA has headquarters..'

at 43mins (in German) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yLCkRxrfo10
He tells the audience that Socrates was set up in tandem with other computers that 'ping' each other.  Once one is removed it realises there's a problem and self-destructs.
'..Tony is one of the best hackers i've ever seen - he built honey traps and lured them into a fake system..we watched what they did..'

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2009/10/12/the-secret-cycle
The S.E.C.’s Armstrong case file was lost when the September 11th terrorist attack obliterated its offices, in 7 World Trade Center.
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May 23, 2019, 05:00:37 AM
 #5355

I have found the last couple of days' discussions very informative on here. A huge thank you to all that have shared. A few take aways for me at this point in no particular order:

1. GMW useless for trading
2. Arrays confusing as crap for everyone as sometimes they are 'right' sometimes they are dead wrong and sometimes what was to happen doesn't and is called a cycle inversion. Therefore unreliable for trading. More of a confirmation tool or a heads-up ...something may happen tool
3. Most important information for trading is the reversals
4. You can trade against the reversals long or short, but if elected the trade should be in the direction of the reversal with a tight stop above or below the reversal depending on the trade direction.
5. Daily reversals are mostly just noise, but at times have offered support and resistance levels
5. Weekly and monthly levels are more important.
6. WECs are overpriced and are a repeat of his blog posts
7. Private reports are overpriced history texts with little information offered for trading.
8. Armstrong does cover both sides in blog posts as he states if this then that, but this may happen too.
9. No individual on this forum can prove consistent profitability using Socrates
10. Socrates pro level is expensive and to add several individual equities is costly.
11. Recent and past private blog posts have been outright wrong with regard to timing calling temp tops/ bottoms, etc...
12. Socrates missed the up move from Jan to April - how? That was a massive move.

The list goes on....But I'll stop there for now. I have more questions than answers.

I have a video of a German guy explaining the reversal system form the VOD WEC a few years ago. Nothing special, most has been discussed here, but I will try to locate it. I do remember audience members asking ridiculous questions and not having clue about trading - as it appeared. It was once posted on the Vimeo site but I believe has been removed. I must have it on some drive somewhere.

What is frustrating to me is the concept of buying and selling against the reversals. If we look at the spread in the DOW right now there is about a 1400 point gap between weekly bullish and bearish reversals. This equates to a between 4.5-5% move.

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May 23, 2019, 06:10:07 AM
 #5356

@rosousa  ECM Slack Groups ? I would be interested to join.

+1

2 of them are private groups but ECM-Traders slack group I can send invitations to anyone who wants to join, just send me your email in a pvt message and you will receive a Slack invitation to join ECM-Traders.

+1
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May 23, 2019, 06:54:27 AM
 #5357

[

I can send invitations to anyone who wants to join, just send me your email in a pvt message and you will receive a Slack invitation to join ECM-Traders.

I tried but your settings seems not to allow pvt messages from newbies like me. Could you change that? then I can pvt message you. Would be great, many thanks for your support here!

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May 23, 2019, 07:13:14 AM
Last edit: May 23, 2019, 09:24:07 AM by etoimene
 #5358

OK, so I'll try one real time trade.
Oil just tested 60.84 bearish daily. Low was 60.80. Entered long with SL 60.75, TP just below next daily bullish at 62.12.

EDIT: Got stopped out. Sad
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May 23, 2019, 10:52:53 AM
 #5359

[

I can send invitations to anyone who wants to join, just send me your email in a pvt message and you will receive a Slack invitation to join ECM-Traders.

I tried but your settings seems not to allow pvt messages from newbies like me. Could you change that? then I can pvt message you. Would be great, many thanks for your support here!



There had been some years since I stop using this kind of web forums and I stop using it just because of all this limitations, link bans, etc. I received pvt messages from one of the members already, so the issue should be with your account. But I lack full knowledge on this Forum restrictions/rules. Sorry, can´t help you further, Slack invitations have to be sent to a email address. I could suggest you just create a alias email that will not waste your time checking in the future so will be no spam bots issue posting it on a public forum. 
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May 23, 2019, 10:55:38 AM
 #5360

@rosousa, that other member is probably not a newbie.

You have to enable PM's from newbies in your forum profile (of course, if you wish to).
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