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Author Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion  (Read 615343 times)
MA_talk
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May 14, 2019, 03:20:39 PM
 #5281

Armstrong has stated time before price and price before time. Both ways. For example, he says NEVER trade in anticipation, wait for the reversals to be elected to show you the way. Then he also states the running out of time trades to trade against the Reversals.

The GMW could just tell us when large gaps are in addition to/instead of GMW patterns. Because we only need large gaps, not the other stuff.

A lot of traders can instantly read a chart at a glance. They wouldn't need a GMW, particularly not when it changes frequently. Also, if a lot of stocks are changing eg dropping hard ala contagion, this is just another way of saying that stuff is correlated. Market beta, if you were. I'd like to know which institution(s) bought the GMW for $250k. I never heard of a single one paying that much for Armstrong's stuff.

Armstrong says he spent over $100M on his system but I'd like to know how he managed to trade his way up there to do so. His site also suffers from bugs and such, as many can attest. I don't have proof of this anymore (it might be in my album actually, but its a huge album), but when I was on reddit, a guy was PM-ing me Daily level arrays well before they were out in the Pro version. He hacked it to get to them. He told me that they were in the system but just hadn't been available to the end users yet. They were changing frequently back then too. If I find it, it will be dated, and thus PROVE Armstrong's so called $100M system has a 2-bit cheap security system. Maybe because it really is cheap in the first place.

Interesting! The proof is in the pudding as they say.

He's oft talked about big trades he's handled - https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/warning-about-people-soliciting-money-for-trading/
'When I shorted the markets for the Russian collapse that manifested into the Long-Term Capital Management Crisis, that was easy to initiate. The hard part came when to take profits and reverse. I sold $1 billion against the Yearly Bullish Reversal in the yen at 147 and had to cope with a contagion that hit every market contrary to all fundamentals. It was a liquidity crisis so everything was sold without logic.
The Japanese yen fell to 103. I covered all my shorts in everything, flipped, and then left the office. It was a gut-wrench trade for I was truly alone. I put in my stops and it would work or not. Very black and white. This was a discipline that I knew I had to walk away and not second guess myself, which would be a disaster. The market would decide. The New Yorker Magazine reported:
“The hedge-fund manager who used to work for Armstrong remembers him coming out of his office in September, 1998, two months after he’d got short in front of the ruble crisis. Monica Lewinsky was on TV. “My oscillators just turned,” Armstrong announced. He booked his profits, pulled out of the market, and went to his beach house, on the Jersey Shore.”

You would expect for someone like him, he does NOT need to lie about his office:
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/new-offices-are-just-about-completed/

---------- from the above link ---------
We have been constructing new offices and we are scheduled to move in December 1st. We have included a room for video. We will be doing more videos on current market trends as part of the Socrates Project. We will begin to launch the higher levels of service as quickly as possible following our move. We will let everyone know as soon as we move in.
----------

When IN FACT, he is just TIME-SHARING the office with others in all likelihood, as shown by trulycoined.


And you would also expect for someone like him, he does NOT need to make up all the readers' comments, when his readers make such flagrant typos that he himself can understand and look at the typos without any problems.  (From my previous posts)

And you would also expect for someone like him, he should have been at least one billion dollar net worth, decades ago, and yet Forbes doesn't report anything on such.

And you would also expect for someone like him, that he claims he had speech recognition fully working back in 1980/1990, that he could have earned incredible amount of money from that alone, and make the world better, when in fact, he is most likely buying off-the-shelf systems from Dragon dictation, or using Siri from Apple or Google.

GIVEN the above lies, it makes me question ANY CLAIMS from Martin Armstrong.  He can make all the flamboyant claims, but if it's not backed by solid proof, I hesitate to believe in him.

That is especially given all of his flip-flopping records of using Cycle Inversion, making up numbers as he goes with 8.6, 3.14, 3.1, 8.615, and two different ECM dates of 10/1/2015, vs 10/7/2015, in HIS OWN writings, (and yet it's "accurate" down to the day), etc.

One can empty-talk all the way, but words are just words.

And honestly, I must say that Armstrong should really get an Award of Con Artist of ALL TIME, given his record of sustaining all the lies of ECM, and the lie of super-computer and AI from 1980, when there was PHYSICALLY impossible on Earth to provide him that much computational power.

He is one of the kind!

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MA_talk
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May 14, 2019, 04:25:21 PM
 #5282

DOW:
So MA called for a temp low today or tomorrow. The directional change this week was highlighted last week. We bottomed between two weekly bearish reversals today. 23750 will only be tested if we close the week lower than these support levels. He mentioned the Euro elections on May 23. I'm not sure if he is hinting at more capital flowing into the USA after this point or not.

Futures already showing a nice bounce after hours.

Strongest Daily array is this Friday however.
Weekly target was this week and the next key target is June 10-24.

SO, did we just bottom? The safe trade is to wait to see if the reversals hold this week, but then do we bounce until June 10-24? Or, if the reversals fail maybe we test 23750 by June 10-24...

My crystal ball is clouded Smiley Huh

Crystal ball?

I stopped reading Armstrong altogether, and stopped trying to decode all of his ambiguous writings.  His writing is like head I win, tail I win too.  He cannot be wrong.  But what are you going to do for trades?

If you need another trading expert to decode Martin Armstrong (the trading expert) who decodes Socrates (the never wrong trading expert), even if all of them are truly trading experts, what do you think the final results that you will get?

It does NOT matter how complicate Armstrong's models and algorithms are.  At the end of the day, you either BUY or SELL.

The only thing that matter to all subscribers and readers is whether you can execute BUY or SELL with profits.

If SO MANY people on this forum AFTER so many years, and AFTER 265 pages of discussion, and NONE of us can state a consistent profit-making trading methodology based on Armstrong's blog, please tell me, what is the value of the subscription?

It's close to zero, if not negative.

Sure, maybe he has a functional AI that can blah, but it's not telling me in clear words, whether I should buy or sell.
psp777
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May 14, 2019, 05:49:30 PM
Merited by infofront (1)
 #5283

Heres' the look for the DOW

Strike Eagle 26
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May 15, 2019, 01:47:51 AM
 #5284

There was an easy day trade setup on crude oil for the 14th today where market tested its daily bullish reversal(62.1) you could of shorted the market at that point knowing that the array had a directional change the very next day. As long as the market stayed below that resistance level the risk was to the downside. Reversals are simply key areas of support and resistance and should be traded as such.

IF you trade elected reversals only you need to know that the expected move should occur within 1 to 3 time units so we had previously in the EUR/USD 3 weekly bearish reversals that were elected by just a few ticks the market then rallied for the next 2 weeks testing its weekly bullish and then on the 3rd week started moving lower towards the next weekly bearish, the array can often warn of such an event. So let those elected weekly bearish reversals provide resistance and if the market moves above them the risk is then to the upside. 
etoimene
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May 15, 2019, 08:12:10 AM
Last edit: May 15, 2019, 08:24:48 AM by etoimene
 #5285

where market tested its daily bullish reversal(62.1) you could of shorted the market at that point


What do you propose for exit points in this case? Obviously, stop loss can be just above. How much? 0.2?
Take profit could be next bearish reversal? Or X times the risk? Or some technical level?

knowing that the array had a directional change the very next day.

What do you conclude from directional change the next day? I see directional changes on both 14th and 15th.
I am still struggling with the arrays. Did you mean the same day?
psp777
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May 15, 2019, 01:29:59 PM
 #5286

Well, regarding the DOW it looks like MA has now stated we could head lower...possibly into July....based on the failure to get back above certain levels. I was thinking this all along and was confused by his temp low call the other day. Other cyclical analysis are calling for a much lower levels at least for the next couple of weeks with a near term target on the DOW of 25,000. So MAs most recent "short term bottom" call two days ago...was VERY short term and confusing for me. Nice call nonetheless for day traders as we bounced off of the area between 2 weekly reversals.

The frustrating thing about Socrates for me is that the arrays do seem to pick up on major movements in the market; however, with the term "directional change" not necessarily meaning a true directional change, but rather larger price movement....it is difficult to know which direction. To complicate things a ton of numbers are given "if this then that" idea. Throw in some "cycle inversions" and we could go either direction with the "I told you so" after. I do like how MA has become much more active on his blog during this time however. It appears that Socrates can even give him mixed signals.

So basically failure to get above 26,000 will indicate weakness until July.



bikefront
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May 15, 2019, 02:13:19 PM
 #5287

Crude and Natural Gas:

An open above 63.2 implies a move up with 63.2 as support. 60.38 for vice versa.
2.798 is a short point while opening under 2.442 is also a short to even as low as 2.196, so there can be a big downside move there.
You can see the chart did pick the major short term points pretty well with little drawdown, although some of the open above on NG for intraday continuation was not great and only offered 1:1 R:R.

Just having patience for the good setups is important; got 2 alerts for the ripping rallies in T and IBM yesterday but had slept through them. Today, no alerts at all so far. It's a matter of fishing and pulling when you get the bites.
Alex4711
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May 15, 2019, 02:28:23 PM
 #5288

From my side I was long on QQQ following the elected weekly reversals from April 1st till April 25th. I was shaken out at the beginning of May, but closing winning trades ( I did NOT wait till a bearish reversal has been elected!). Since that time I am out, so far we have neither elected a new bullish reversal nor a bearish one on Nasdaq, so I will wait and see what is the closing on Friday. If it is below the bearish one (what I expect) I will go short, looking also for the 1% Rule.  We will see :-)
Strike Eagle 26
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May 15, 2019, 02:41:25 PM
 #5289

where market tested its daily bullish reversal(62.1) you could of shorted the market at that point


What do you propose for exit points in this case? Obviously, stop loss can be just above. How much? 0.2?
Take profit could be next bearish reversal? Or X times the risk? Or some technical level?

knowing that the array had a directional change the very next day.

What do you conclude from directional change the next day? I see directional changes on both 14th and 15th.
I am still struggling with the arrays. Did you mean the same day?


0.2 in this case could of worked but there was a another daily bullish not that far away. You could of bought back against the nearest support level  in this case the pivot point at 61.18  Directional changes usually mean that whatever direction we are in should reverse and back to back directional changes often produce spike highs and lows so the 14th produced a high the 15th and its directional change pointed to a low.

 Regarding the array the most significant turning points that often unfold as main cyclical events tend to be when directional change targets align with main turning points on the top line of the array.
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May 15, 2019, 03:00:10 PM
 #5290

Thank you for the clarification. Another daily bullish was really very close above. Good one.
psp777
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May 15, 2019, 04:12:18 PM
 #5291

DOW:
We will see if this channel contains things? Maybe this was the bounce MA was looking for yesterday, but then we sold off.

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May 15, 2019, 09:20:48 PM
 #5292

Another very funny thing: Armstrong keeps on saying how foreigners are endlessly binch buying US equities, and that keeps the Dow up. Why the hell do the numbers say something totally different??  Huh

Quote
However, for yet another month, the real action was away from the bond market, and in US stocks, where TIC data showed that foreigners sold US stocks for a record 11th consecutive month and 13 of the past 14:

The aggregate $207 billion sale in the past 12 months, is the largest liquidation of US equities by foreigners on record.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-05-15/foreigners-dump-record-265-billion-us-stocks-past-year

https://i.imgur.com/Bb21puL.jpg

Someone please explain Armstrong's "logic"...
bikefront
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May 15, 2019, 11:00:17 PM
 #5293

Another very funny thing: Armstrong keeps on saying how foreigners are endlessly binch buying US equities, and that keeps the Dow up. Why the hell do the numbers say something totally different??  Huh

Quote
However, for yet another month, the real action was away from the bond market, and in US stocks, where TIC data showed that foreigners sold US stocks for a record 11th consecutive month and 13 of the past 14:

The aggregate $207 billion sale in the past 12 months, is the largest liquidation of US equities by foreigners on record.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-05-15/foreigners-dump-record-265-billion-us-stocks-past-year



Someone please explain Armstrong's "logic"...

StrikeEagle knows why, being Armstrong. I'd also like to know what method he uses to track global capital flows; last I read on the site, it was a third party provider. Armstrong's model requires accurate and reliable data, and if he does not have that, the whole thing is put to question. A single thing goes wrong and, like a complex ecosystem, everything else is affected.

https://i.imgur.com/UYY7rXj.png Shorted the BA high today. Similar setup to last time's Dow short setup.

Also, didn't Armstrong call for a real estate high some time ago? But IYR has been making new highs practically every month this year...
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May 16, 2019, 01:49:23 AM
 #5294

An open in the Euro (Jun/6E) below 1.1781 should have it as resistance, for the first time it touches there as resistance, as an intraday short point.
An intraday touch of 1.10929 should be an intraday long point, for the first time it touches there.
An open above 1.1293 will have it as support and long point, intraday, for the first time it touches there.

See, that's how Socrates should forecast.
psp777
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May 16, 2019, 01:57:42 AM
 #5295

See, that's how Socrates should forecast.

I think there should be arrows on a chart for buy and sell signals. Other cyclical analysts actually have line graphs projecting price movement in advance with very good accuracy.
Looks like SPX just dipped back into its channel on the charts Smiley

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May 16, 2019, 03:11:02 AM
 #5296

psp777 and others, are there other cyclical analysts you recommend/respect?

Can you name names?
bikefront
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May 16, 2019, 04:34:19 AM
 #5297

See, that's how Socrates should forecast.

I think there should be arrows on a chart for buy and sell signals. Other cyclical analysts actually have line graphs projecting price movement in advance with very good accuracy.
Looks like SPX just dipped back into its channel on the charts Smiley



This is the same, in picture format: https://i.imgur.com/0Mn25h7.png
I like to have color coded lines so I don't have to analyze early in the morning, just analyze beforehand, set alerts, and color tells me the direction, and enter trades blindly at levels, no brainpower needed. Armstrong/StrikeEagle mentioned that there will be an automated Socrates coming up which will trade for customers...I can't expect it to be great, but I'm willing to keep an open mind anyway. One would have expected a sophisticated computer to be able to trade for itself as do lower computerized things, but what do I know? I'd also like to see the speaking robot AI Armstrong supposedly created with old hardware- my guess is that if it ever existed, it was probably something with rote memorization and basic recognition, which is actually very easy to implement. It would be very easy for him to prove all the naysayers wrong by revealing it publicly, which is why I have a problem with him- just prove it man! Just once is all anyone needs. Show us the hardware & software package. Anyone can claim anything. Cooincidences and gymnastics don't count.
etoimene
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May 16, 2019, 07:00:28 AM
 #5298


 the 15th and its directional change pointed to a low.


Turned out to be a high. These thing, obviously, happen. How to recognize that? I mean, is it possible to recognize that in advance, by looking at the higher time frame?
psp777
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May 16, 2019, 01:55:54 PM
Last edit: May 16, 2019, 03:59:06 PM by psp777
 #5299

DOW: We broke up...out of the channel posted above. However, Armstrong talks about failure to get above 25,900 to 26,000 will indicate weakness until July. Todays close and tomorrow seems very important.



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May 16, 2019, 04:42:14 PM
 #5300

Since that time I am out, so far we have neither elected a new bullish reversal nor a bearish one on Nasdaq, so I will wait and see what is the closing on Friday. If it is below the bearish one (what I expect) I will go short, looking also for the 1% Rule.  We will see :-)

Waiting to see the real direction according to the weekly bearish  for Nasdaq avoided negative suprises :-). The market crossed the bearish reversal upwards and is touching even the bullish one. Lets see what the system states tomorrow for closing. It looks like a slingshot.
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