Martin Armstrong Discussion

[Gumbi]

you don't know that its a scam you only believe it to be/ so far there has been no real evidence to say that it is a scam the only game this AI playing is the numbers game and all you ever talk about is what Armstrong's opinion. Only mediocre minds will take your word that it doesn't work anyone will any real intelligence will test it themselves.

For you, we are going to build a pocket calculator with "AI" written on it. That pocket calculator will, for each calculation, put out multiple results to choose from. That will keep you happy for a while.

you actually don't have any evidence based on the numbers given by the AI and the array's that prove his model is wrong so it is you who needs defend against these big claims that its a scam. None of you know how to even read an array which is a big problem, since timing is everything.

what Armstrong is saying I believe is correct he has said it multiple times throughout his career

 based on the posts of Ma_talk we don't have enough information to conclude that what Armstrong is saying is false,
"There is no way that government will let any commercial business to run anything on their super-computer simply due to security reasons"

This is MA_talks conclusion which cannot be verified and  simply shows he does not know for sure if they let him use it or not and really is a very weak argument and does not give any proof that Armstrong is in fact lying.


https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/products_services/socrates/comprehending-the-capabilities-of-ai/

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[MA_talk]

you don't know that its a scam you only believe it to be/ so far there has been no real evidence to say that it is a scam the only game this AI playing is the numbers game and all you ever talk about is what Armstrong's opinion. Only mediocre minds will take your word that it doesn't work anyone will any real intelligence will test it themselves.

For you, we are going to build a pocket calculator with "AI" written on it. That pocket calculator will, for each calculation, put out multiple results to choose from. That will keep you happy for a while.

you actually don't have any evidence based on the numbers given by the AI and the array's that prove his model is wrong so it is you who needs defend against these big claims that its a scam. None of you know how to even read an array which is a big problem, since timing is everything.

what Armstrong is saying I believe is correct he has said it multiple times throughout his career

 based on the posts of Ma_talk we don't have enough information to conclude that what Armstrong is saying is false,
"There is no way that government will let any commercial business to run anything on their super-computer simply due to security reasons"

This is MA_talks conclusion which cannot be verified and  simply shows he does not know for sure if they let him use it or not and really is a very weak argument and does not give any proof that Armstrong is in fact lying.


https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/products_services/socrates/comprehending-the-capabilities-of-ai/

Based on the energy spent ALONE, we know that his claim of $6 million spent on energy is bogus, and therefore, the entire claim is bogus.  The WHOLE Sequoia burns $6 to $7 million in energy cost, and Socrates takes almost 100% capacity of Sequoia?

IMPOSSIBLE!

If you show me another instance where the US government SELLS the spare capacity of their instruments to the public, post it.  Otherwise, Martin Armstrong has LIED about his software codes.

[Gumbi]

@Ma_talk

absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

as an outside it is impossible for you to know anything about it so you can stop trying, you also need to RESPOND TO MY PREVIOUS POST, here it is again

MA_talk I have already exposed you as a complete fraud since you stopped following Armstrong in 2015 and the ask-Socrates AI model was only launched in 2016, so essentially you have never traded on a single reversal or array. You simply have no authority to say whether this model works or not because you have zero experience even using it, the pro version only came out in 2019 and you have not even bothered to evaluate it which shows your bias.

Its shows a huge lack of intelligence to believe in someone for 15 years lol and never come to any kind of conclusion about his work that simply shows you were following him blindly without any understanding of your own regarding the model.

Why should anyone listen to you at all?

[AnonymousCoder]

This is his latest post

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/central-banks/rise-in-the-euro-interesting-times-ahead/

"This conflict gave a boost to the Euro but the model had been calling for a rally into July after the elections which we have seen also in gold."

He has been calling for a low in EUR now suddenly he made this statement. I don't think he mention this before this is just plain hindsight comment!

What model? Since we have pro subscribers show us from the reversal and array and since when it predicted a rally in July??!!

I cannot comment on timing signals at the moment.

Weekly bearish 11310, date elected 2019-06-14 close 11212, 2019-06-21 close 11373 1.4% loss

If you trade it for a week only. If you trade longer then the loss is greater of course.

Sell the low buy the high. Reversals do not work most of the time, because most of the time, the market is not moving up or down long enough.

I would need to be suicidal to use Socrates to trade currencies. Currencies do not move long enough with large enough vertical differences. Experience shows that Socrates gets whip-sawed with no end in sight.

Contrary to what the name implies, the reversal system cannot predict reversals in the price movement. It has an extreme detection mechanism which works only after a high or low is confirmed which is not prediction but after the fact. But then even this is not reliable.

Armstrong did not say which model on which time frame detected anything at what time. He has a recent post where Socrates detected the breakout in Gold in the daily time frame. But that is not prediction, and is trivial technical analysis. After the fact it is easy to say. He makes things up as he goes. As far as I remember, Armstrong has been predicting for a long time a USD rally not a EURO rally.

Another trouble is that this contraption contains so many "models" each of them may contradict each other at many levels, creating ambiguity. Armstrong can always say one of those models predicted something because he just needs to pick the right one. As we can see, he doesn't even care any more to give details.

This ambiguity goes so far as that a weekly ELECTED reversal needs to be traded in the OPPOSITE direction if a monthly non-elected reversal, in the middle of the month is nearby. See https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg51535653#msg51535653 .You need to be an idiot to believe that you can make consistent trading decisions based on this mess.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

[DanB1]

@Gumbi,
It's interesting that you get so aggressive as people talk about getting the truth out.
That was also the first time you got very active on this blog. After AnonymousCoder discussed how we could get the word out in a more substantial way you started responding very actively and aggressive.

You keep insulting people for a lack of intelligence but so far you have not given us any example why Socrates works i.e. LIVE TRADES!
The Nasdaq in the last few days would have been a nice trade, or what about Gold? The Russell2000? Plenty of action but no live trade from you whatsoever to show us that we're wrong.

I've looked very closely to what you have posted, now and in the past, and have come to the conclusion that you're or MA himself or someone close to him.
Because if you would be a big trader, profiting greatly from Socrates, why would you even bother to come out to a bitcoinblog and discuss your precious money making machine with a few 'losers' who are to stupid to understand it?
For you, It would be even better if a lot of people wouldn't understand Socrates and fail at it because you wouldn't want Socrates to go mainstream.

Anyway, until you start posting live trades and proof us all wrong I will take everything you say with a big bowl of salt.

Bye Gumbi!

[DanB1]

@AnonymousCoder:

You are right when you say: "I would need to be suicidal to use Socrates to trade currencies. Currencies do not move long enough with large enough vertical differences. Experience shows that Socrates gets whip-sawed with no end in sight."

I had the Pro membership of the EUR/USD until 2 weeks ago. Do you think that it gave a clear indication that the Euro would rise against the USD?
Now MA mentioned in one of his latest blogposts: "This conflict gave a boost to the Euro but the model had been calling for a rally into July after the elections which we have seen also in gold."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/central-banks/rise-in-the-euro-interesting-times-ahead/

Well, Socrates must have hidden that signal very well or maybe as Gumbi would say, I lack the intelligence to understand it.

[AnonymousCoder]

@AnonymousCoder:

You are right when you say: "I would need to be suicidal to use Socrates to trade currencies. Currencies do not move long enough with large enough vertical differences. Experience shows that Socrates gets whip-sawed with no end in sight."

I had the Pro membership of the EUR/USD until 2 weeks ago. Do you think that it gave a clear indication that the Euro would rise against the USD?
Now MA mentioned in on of his latest blogposts: "This conflict gave a boost to the Euro but the model had been calling for a rally into July after the elections which we have seen also in gold."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/central-banks/rise-in-the-euro-interesting-times-ahead/

Well, Socrates must have hidden that signal very well or maybe as Gumbi would say, I lack the intelligence to understand it.

My experience is that this type of move is not predictable by a system based on technical analysis and its variants such as used by Socrates. As I wrote earlier, Socrates is only one-dimensional, processing exclusively the time series / past history of a single market. Why would we think that the information of when the Federal Reserve is going to discuss a rate cut is hidden in the past values of that data, AND that this can trigger a profitable trading signal in Socrates? The Fed message is what caused the market to turn. Nothing to do even with Europe or conflict in the Middle East. We did not even have conflict. Otherwise crude oil would have gone through the roof. The shooting down of the drone was a piece signal because it made it clear that there is no easy way for the US to gain air superiority and collect target information as it did with the U2 planes in Iraq, and the US reacted accordingly.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

[KereruFTW]

Very long time lurker... I know the hate on MA is intense here, but listen to something he posted today.

Get a cup of tea or coffee and listen to "Milton Friedman Speaks - Myths That Conceal Reality"
https://youtu.be/xNc-xhH8kkk

[olegrey]

@AnonymousCoder:

You are right when you say: "I would need to be suicidal to use Socrates to trade currencies. Currencies do not move long enough with large enough vertical differences. Experience shows that Socrates gets whip-sawed with no end in sight."

I had the Pro membership of the EUR/USD until 2 weeks ago. Do you think that it gave a clear indication that the Euro would rise against the USD?
Now MA mentioned in one of his latest blogposts: "This conflict gave a boost to the Euro but the model had been calling for a rally into July after the elections which we have seen also in gold."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/central-banks/rise-in-the-euro-interesting-times-ahead/

Well, Socrates must have hidden that signal very well or maybe as Gumbi would say, I lack the intelligence to understand it.

According to anonymouscoder the eurusd elected a bullish reversal on 6/7/2019

[DanB1]

@AnonymousCoder:

You are right when you say: "I would need to be suicidal to use Socrates to trade currencies. Currencies do not move long enough with large enough vertical differences. Experience shows that Socrates gets whip-sawed with no end in sight."

I had the Pro membership of the EUR/USD until 2 weeks ago. Do you think that it gave a clear indication that the Euro would rise against the USD?
Now MA mentioned in one of his latest blogposts: "This conflict gave a boost to the Euro but the model had been calling for a rally into July after the elections which we have seen also in gold."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/central-banks/rise-in-the-euro-interesting-times-ahead/

Well, Socrates must have hidden that signal very well or maybe as Gumbi would say, I lack the intelligence to understand it.

According to anonymouscoder the eurusd elected a bullish reversal on 6/7/2019

Could well be. As reversals are not that far apart in EUR/USD, it often elects a reversal (bullish or bearish).
One elected reversal does not say much in currency's. Just look for yourself at the pro version.

[etoimene]

None of you know how to even read an array which is a big problem, since timing is everything.

This seems to be definitive true, but Armstrong didn't do much to help people understand how to read the arrays. Socrates support is not helpful either.
Also, some bars on arrays are always the highest so as the time goes buy each period can be qualified as turning point.

Could you explain how do you use the arrays?

[etoimene]

We know how to use the arrays.

Hm, ...

[AnonymousCoder]

There are multiple ways of interpretation, ambiguity.

We can however let the computer decide which reading is best - read the report:

Considering all timing factors, there is a possibility of a rally moving into Wed. 26th with the opposite trend thereafter into Thu. 27th (NOTE: this can be intraday or on a closing basis).


I have done that. Statistically, the array interpretation offered by the reports is wrong more often than not.

I tried to improve the reliability of the system by considering this array interpretation in case of elected reversal failure. I was surprised to find that in case of failure, most of the time, the arrays were also wrong, so no gain there.

The hope that there is some fundamental truth in the arrays is the problem not the inability to explain them.
Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

[MA_talk]

@Ma_talk

absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

as an outside it is impossible for you to know anything about it so you can stop trying, you also need to RESPOND TO MY PREVIOUS POST, here it is again

MA_talk I have already exposed you as a complete fraud since you stopped following Armstrong in 2015 and the ask-Socrates AI model was only launched in 2016, so essentially you have never traded on a single reversal or array. You simply have no authority to say whether this model works or not because you have zero experience even using it, the pro version only came out in 2019 and you have not even bothered to evaluate it which shows your bias.

Its shows a huge lack of intelligence to believe in someone for 15 years lol and never come to any kind of conclusion about his work that simply shows you were following him blindly without any understanding of your own regarding the model.

Why should anyone listen to you at all?

I have tested Armstrong's arrays every time it's available on the public blog and his private reports.  They don't work.
The timing array rubbish is available every year or quarter, if not every month from his public blog.

There are MANY other people on this forum who are more familiar than me, and they claim that the arrays don't work.  You don't need to pick on me.  How about pick on others?  I continue to present facts, when you presented NOTHING.  How about showing some live trades that work?  Are you saying that out of tens of thousands of financial vehicle, on a daily basis, Socrates and you canNOT find anything to trade and make a profit on some financial vehicles?  That is ludicrous unless the computer algorithm does NOT work or your "highly intelligent / belligerent" brain cannot understand Socrates/Armstrong.

If I do it by hindsight, I can give you 100 winning trades on a daily basis.  There are SO MANY profit opportunities every day.  And you canNOT produce winning live trades?

Oh, of course, Armstrong is the "greatest trader" alive (BY HINDSIGHT).

Gumbi, it is extremely easy for you/Armstrong to refute all the arguments on this forum, if you simply publish the trading rules that WORK according to your intelligent brain, and trade off Socrates' reversal & timing array, and show that in realtime, and show that it is consistently profitable.

You can settle it once for all, for the benefits of ALL forum users & subscribers here, and assuming that trading method is not FAKE, it will be like any other scientific results, REPEATABLE by all the forum users & subscribers here.

And yet, you nor Armstrong will show it, when thousands of profitable trading opportunities are passing by.

Extraordinary claim (of profitable trading using Socrates) requires extraordinary evidence.  Since you are making this extraordinary claim, you will need to provide extraordinary evidence.

[JPike]

For whatever it's worth, Socrates Detailed Analysis for Dow Jones yesterday has this sentence, "To date, we have continue to trade within last year's range of 2695181 to 2695181."

The low of the range is obviously wrong.  Also, note the typo/grammar error on the word "continue".  So how intelligent and reliable is MA's AI?  You be the judge.     

[DanB1]

You can settle it once for all, for the benefits of ALL forum users & subscribers here, and assuming that trading method is not FAKE, it will be like any other scientific results, REPEATABLE by all the forum users & subscribers here.

And yet, you nor Armstrong will show it, when thousands of profitable trading opportunities are passing by.

Extraordinary claim (of profitable trading using Socrates) requires extraordinary evidence.  Since you are making this extraordinary claim, you will need to provide extraordinary evidence.

They will never do that, they will never post any live trades because they can't.
All the facts we have shown, Gumbi/MA has only insulted people.

The fact that they can't do it should be the final proof that Socrates does not work!
We can keep on going discussing it and fill another 285 pages, but we all know it.

[AnonymousCoder]

Make something Wrong look Right

Socrates looks to me like the mirror image of the human psyche when it comes to arguing.

People have an opinion, a bias, and they do not like being proven wrong. So to support their point of view, they like picking facts or pseudo facts to support their view, ignoring other facts.

Likewise, Socrates, to be always right, provides multiple conflicting outcomes out of the box. Irrational, biased, or unscientific people can pick what they want. Socrates is always right. However, the markets do not agree with that, so at the end of the day, Socrates is losing, and the people using it are losing.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

[icemanmelb]

Guys,
I stumbled upon this forum after spending 2 years on Armstrong's materials. I don't use his system to trade as Im in Australia BUT I find his thinking useful. By that I mean some of his long term global environment/political/retail issues.

Im not saying he's correct but I certainly think as a hedgefund manager previously, his thinking is different to most retailer so there's obviously something for me to read about there.

I've tried to look at his array when he post it on the public forum but most of them are months/years so I gave up on them. I've tried BASIC Ask-Socrates which is a great overview tool but not sure if I could do anything else but to satisfy my intellectual curiosity. I've now discontinued it today and it should expire in a week's time.

I thank you all for the discussion on MA and would just want to let you know there are some useful info amoungst the other stuff. I haven't gone deeper than the surface but I would like to thank those who have. It's been certainly a enlightening journey and I thank those on this forum who is calling out for what it is before I spend more time on arrays, reversals etc.

Paul

Of course I can't wait to read his next book but like what everyone here mentioned, it could be a hindsight kind of a book.

[trulycoined]

Make something Wrong look Right

Socrates looks to me like the mirror image of the human psyche when it comes to arguing.

People have an opinion, a bias, and they do not like being proven wrong. So to support their point of view, they like picking facts or pseudo facts to support their view, ignoring other facts.

Likewise, Socrates, to be always right, provides multiple conflicting outcomes out of the box. Irrational, biased, or unscientific people can pick what they want. Socrates is always right. However, the markets do not agree with that, so at the end of the day, Socrates is losing, and the people using it are losing.

it is the codification of cognitive dissonance.

[s4k4p]

I am still open to the idea that the Reversals may work. I am going to check them later. Maybe Socrates is good at technical analysis. Who knows?

However, if someone claims anything, the burden of evidence lies upon the one making the claim, not the other party. There has been a mountain of evidence on this thread that Armstrong's claims are just that- claims. There is no evidence in favor, only against. Even if some of that evidence can be waved away, there are still many  things that remain and have not been adequately addressed, if at all. Cycle/array models are known to be trash. Armstrong claims to have made calls to predict large scale financial disasters in advance to the day but when he does it in real time, it is always ambiguous. Then he claims he called it. That is dishonest. He won't give a black or white answer. He should instead say he made a trade and why in real time. Not once did he ever do so. He also claims to have an office, a supercomputer, a talking AI decades before they came out these days, a huge database from coins and money he compiled himself, and so on. Evidence for those claims, please. Otherwise I could do the same thing.

I think this is worth reflecting on.

There is some junk on Socrates (mostly the opinion stuff), and I simply ignore it

What actually works?  Can you use weekly/monthly reversals to a reasonable degree of profit?  Can Arrays improve the probability of Reversal moves?  Is it worth the investment for that alone?

I approached Customer service as I am looking for a system to place Tail hedges on market retracements (2-3 month periods).  I was asking about the October to December share market pull back and how the reversals flagged this.   They showed me a daily reversal chart picking the move.  Why would I be looking at daily reversals for an event that was 2-3 months in movement?  I would focus on weekly and monthly triggers.  From that perspective this would simply not meet my needs.