Martin Armstrong Discussion

[AnonymousCoder]

Major failed Predictions

The following predictions made by Martin Armstrong are major in a sense that they are aligned with the fundamental cycles of his models. They are clear enough to be verifiable. Their due dates are in the past, so checking the facts is easy.


China new Financial Capitol of the World by 2015.75
On October 15, 2010 Armstrong incorrectly predicted that China would become the new Financial Capitol of the World by 2015. See Show Me the Money on page 6

China will take the torch as the new Financial Capitol of the World by 2015.75 and that is the ultimate irony. The nation that revolted against capitalism, embraced Marx, will become the center of capitalism because the West refuses to reform. The NY Bankers won't let reform happen and they are too busy lining their pockets. They are in reality burning down the house to find that dime they dropped somewhere.

Meanwhile, the US remains the world's largest economy by some $7.2trn. See: List of countries by GDP (nominal)

Gold USD 5,000 + into 2016
In March 2012, at the peak of the Gold rally, the 30 year all-time high, Martin Armstrong published the following two documents that contain the failed prediction:

Will Gold reach $5,000 +?

P13: A 21 year bull market in stocks points to 2015 and a 17.2 year high in gold points to 2016.< br/> P14: However, if gold exceeds this level and it too forms the subsequent support, now we are looking at the $3,500 to $5,000 target zone. This is where we see the potential for Gold is a true economic meltdown of Confidence.

GOLD $5,000 +

P13: Technical support will be at the $800 level for 2010. Holding this will keep the bullish momentum in place. We should see a temporary high in 2010-11 with a retest of support perhaps into 2012-13 with a rally into 2016.

Meanwhile, in March 2020, four years after the target date, the price of Gold is still below the all time high in 2012.


US Recession starting in October 2015
On April 26, 2013 Armstrong incorrectly predicted that starting from October 2015, the rise of the US Dollar would create a recession in the US economy via massive short covering. Back to the Future.
 There has not been a recession in the US economy between October 2015 and July 2019. List of recessions in the United States

Big Banks go bust starting in October 2015
On December 31, 2013 Armstrong incorrectly predicted that big banks will start to go bust after October 2015.
What Kind of Trader is Trading
 In June 2019 no big banks went bankrupt since 2015.

Crude Oil Rally 2014 - 2017
On July 9, 2014 Armstrong incorrectly predicted that Crude Oil prices would rally into 2017 in line with his war models. Crude Oil & The Future.
 At the time of this prediction, the WTI Crude Oil futures price was USD102.93, and it declined to USD26.21 on February 11 2016, not exceeding USD60.42 on December 29, 2017 Crude Oil Prices - 70 Year Historical Chart



It is useful to consider Martin Armstrong's claims that his computer correlates everything.

See The Global Correlation Model and It's More than just a Debt Bubble - It's a Social Bubble. A recession would necessarily reduce oil consumption and produce an oil glut because oil consumption is positively correlated with economic activity. It is also unlikely that a war would break out over the control of oil resources during such a glut.



European Financial, Political and Banking Chaos in 2019
On March 29, 2019 Armstrong incorrectly predicted Financial, Political & Banking Chaos in Europe Going into May. Financial, Political & Banking Chaos in Europe Going into May.
 In May 2019, the economy in Europe was unaffected by any form of chaos.

See also:

The Failed Emerging Markets Meltdown Prediction

Martin A. Armstrong: convicted felon, shameless conman, schizophrenic crackpot & financial comedian

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

[AnonymousCoder]

The Mother of all Forecast Claims

In the following

Armstrong Interview Paris, France


Martin Armstrong makes the ultimate claim in the first sentence of the video:

Cela vous est-il arriv? de faire des pr?dictions qui sont av?r?es totalment fausses ?
Have you ever made predictions that are completely wrong?
No, not really, because it's, everything is connected.

Right, you got it? He never fails.

More specifically, he claims in:

The Real Implications of Forecasting Are More Profound Than you Think:

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, I attended the Berlin Conference and I must say, you told us to expect a move between the Benchmarks in gold, and that the first quarter looked to be a countertrend move. You seem to be able to map out the direction of markets all the time. I am still working out the best way to read the arrays. But I have to ask. Why have you not been given the Noble Prize with such a long track record that is unbeatable?

REPLY: The fact that we can forecast any event to the day PROVES that markets are by no means RANDOM.

Compare this with the facts:

Major failed Predictions.

His claim is a fraudulent misrepresentation of performance. Why?

Because Martin Armstrong sells his forecasts in the form of expensive reports, services and seminars.

Furthermore, he claims in Opinion Infected by Bias that

The computer has never been wrong because it sees trends without interjecting some theory or bias which infects all opinion.

Compare this with the facts:

Monthly Reversal Failures December 2018


That is why his business is a scam. Pure fraud.

Martin A. Armstrong: convicted felon, shameless conman, schizophrenic crackpot & financial comedian

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

[DigiLab]

Ok, so that is the reason behind spamming this forum, someone's personal frustration with Martin Armstrong.

Btw, the book arrived "Manipulating the world economy", half way through it, it's worth every dollar.
Most (if not all) of the material can be found on Martin's Blog, spread over the course of many years though.
It's being put together in this book, easier for keeping and browsing.

I received this private message from Anonymous Coder today:

Martin Armstrong,

This is all payback.

I requested my money back from your scam. You refused.

Too bad.

I have educated the people, they know that you post at these forums with multiple identities.

They now post at your youtube interviews, they post at amazon.com, they are everywhere.

All I need to do is to watch this unfold now. I don't need multiple identities. It is organic.

The people are even posting in the forums where to complain at Government agencies. I don't need to do anything. I just watch now.

[AnonymousCoder]

DigiLab, very clear motive my friend. Crystal clear. At least nobody can say that I am getting paid by someone. Shows how corrupt you are that you think that there is actually anything wrong with it.

Everybody who actually read my signature knows this. If you follow, you will notice why I write it starts on page 273, and that I knew their system better than they did (I got 3 merits for this post):

Hi,

I have been Socrates subscriber for many years since the service started, including the more recent Pro level. I have also kept record of thousands of Reversals on the Daily, Weekly and Monthly level. I have back tested them all. Even under consideration of the most sophisticated but complicating "Superposition Events" where Reversals are negated by signals that come out of the blue even as acknowledged by his staff, my back tests across all these signals reveal that the accuracy is 50% which is worthless. So they are effectively random signals, although they are based on logic as they are trend following signals that are positioned near support and resistance values. I have also back tested about 100 instances of another daily level signal "False Reaction" that catches a bounce on a daily level that appears to go too far back up from the previous temp high. It failed in roughly 50% of the cases.

When confronted with these issues, Armstrong staff has a simple strategy which is backed up by the overwhelming ambiguity of the system: They basically say that following the reversals is just not enough, one has to consider all the other factors and signals such as timing, energy (which is a mysterious signal). So there is no computerization in spite of Armstrong's AI claims.

So not only as others posted does one need to dig deep into the details to get information - more so the fact is if you do that then you just waste more time to find out the inevitable that such technical systems simply do not work regardless of their complexity. I can say that because I have followed their advice and then the system still fails.

Armstrong claims that he is the inventor of Capital Flow Analysis. For this analysis, the Socrates service has provided from day one a geographic heat map that shows current and projected capital flow daily, weekly and monthly, projected and previous. So one would expect that this prominent feature, which is on the member home page, is at least of some value. But unfortunately, every school kid with some JavaScript knowledge can check out that the logic behind it is bogus (has been for years). If you care, get a trial membership and check out the JavaScript links. The animation effect of changing capital flows between current and projected on the same daily level comes from the error that the script swaps between weekly and daily data where you think it is both on the daily level. It is a fraud, completely bogus. The complicatedness is overwhelming, and the server back-end script that writes these automated reports produces a lot of conflicting garbage.

I asked to get my money back on the day I discovered this crap. Anything wrong with this claim? You think so? And I shared this info here on the day I discovered it because I am an honest social being with high level of integrity.

Nobody, yes, nobody wants to be the fool who buys Armstrong's stuff.

Nobody here who can actually make an argument for the Charlatan in chief. NOBODY.

Talk about the facts my friend. No smoke screen, no distractions. You have facts? ZERO.

WE have the facts. HUNDREDS.



Traxo, we have one more shill to add to the list: Digilab.

At least we know that the book is just a collection of web posts on paper. Worth every gram of paper. Three grand on ebay anyone?

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

[DigiLab]

"Shill" Anonymous, you've been COMPLETELY exposed, and yet you keep preaching the same bs, and desperately trying to project your own behavior to others.
And of course, blaming others for your own failures. You don't even have the capacity to realize that all the bs you are throwing, is falling back, just on yourself.
I didn't know about ignore feature of the forum, but now it will come handy. Just hope that Shelby Moore will come back to this forum, or someone like him to join, in order for this thread to be useful again.

p.s. Just tried the Ignore, beautiful.

[over45]

Those 2 or 3 posters are going to keep posting the same diatribe over and over again in an attempt to drown out common sense voices.  They've jumped the shark on reality and the moderators don't seem to care.  Someday they will look back on their actions and realize just how petty they were. 

[over45]

Why do you keep posting the same thing over and over?   Why do you feel the need to silence people who benefit from MA / Socrates and the information it provides? 

Who put you in charge?   

[AnonymousCoder]

It is an illusion to think that I can silence anyone. Everybody can post here. It is an open forum. The only people who benefit from the system are the ones selling it. Otherwise I would not feel like I am beating a dead horse already. Game over basically. Bye.

[psp777]

whoops..I just clicked print.

Seriously, can everyone just chill and get back to focussing on what is important. Markets and money.

Thanks!

[over45]

I just read this comment by Anonymous Coder and had to post it.  He/She says:

I am an honest social being with high level of integrity.

Got some news for you Anonymous - someone with a high level of integrity does not act like you do -- 180 degree opposite from they way you act.

I benefit from Armstrong -- as do tens of thousands of others (probably more).  His website get over a million views per month.   

[dibley8899]

Ok, so that is the reason behind spamming this forum, someone's personal frustration with Martin Armstrong.

Btw, the book arrived "Manipulating the world economy", half way through it, it's worth every dollar.
Most (if not all) of the material can be found on Martin's Blog, spread over the course of many years though.
It's being put together in this book, easier for keeping and browsing.



Ah digilab thanks for posting your trading account, oh sorry must be mistaken you didnt post anything apart from nonsense, same as whatever and the muppets. The book is nonsense as well as his ebay episode which is plain for all to see its manipulation. No doubt the feds will see this and be knocking on the door.

Please join me all and close the fake shill down. Over 45 just spouts the same nonsense even though there are losing trades right in front up, yup just ignore those my boy MARTY!!!!  Give it up now theres a good boy before you get the knock on the door.....

[over45]

more convoluted expression of frustration from the peanut gallery.  after I post this I'm sure the few same posters will repost and repost the same thing over and over again in an attempt to bury replies from people who have had a positive experience with MA.  The level of delusion these MA bashers put forth is astonishing... but hey ... that's my take... and I'm supposed to be Martin himself I am told.  Where do I find the time...

[over45]

As expected.  Same repeat garbage from Anonymous Coder.  I have a new name for him:  Garbageman.   From henceforth he will be known by that title.  So let it be written - so let it be done.

[MTL4]

AnonymousCoder"Quarterly reversal time unit is one quarter. Gold rallied before the quarter was over and no other signal in the opposite direction was available to indicate change of direction.

The time span is 1 to 3 units in time so the quarterly bearish reversal had 1 to 3 quarters before time was up.

Armstrong wrote on his private blog on the first of March our quarterly level of the model generated a bullish reversal at the end of the year reversing its short position and going long. This also signaled that gold would rally from the $1060 area and should test the next bullish reversal at the $1347 level."

Not sure if you are aware or not but you are losing this discussion.  

Just for fun I went back and reread my gold report from 2016 (part 1) in which MA stated that he thought that the gold rally was a "Bull Trap" (implying lower lows to come) due to the fact that the gold/silver ratio was rising which exactly contradicts what Gumbi said above.  Alot of folks also got burned on this (including myself) but honestly I should also thank MA at the same time because without that negative experience I may never have created my own system which makes the calls to be in/out blatantly clear.

[m96]

Fraud Warning

I think over45 needs a reminder.

As previously said, Gumbi's and cohorts' posts get replied to in a way that will remind them of the context in which we showed them that Martin Armstrong is a charlatan.

Let him be reminded again that we have a model case where this behavior is documented in much detail. Here we show how Martin Armstrong's fraud manifests itself. Beyond any doubt. A self-documenting case. It actually saves time and effort to repeat this as opposed to wasting the time trying to argue this same type of thing without end.

Whatever smokescreen over45, Gumbi, s96 and cohorts are coming up with now, they get this reply. I know they just want this message to go away but I am not going to do Martin Armstrong the favor. I am just not taking his baits for more nonsense any more.

The pattern is the same again and again: Pick one of the ambiguous conflicting Socrates signals in hindsight to argue the case. For us, there is no need to formulate a custom response to that. We use this model case as a standard response reply to show what these charlatans are doing.

I have an obligation to spread the message for the honest people, and as painful as it is for me, I am going to persevere until the Armstrong promoters shut up. So they are warned. The honest people have all the facts on their side.

AnonymousCoder"Quarterly reversal time unit is one quarter. Gold rallied before the quarter was over and no other signal in the opposite direction was available to indicate change of direction.

The time span is 1 to 3 units in time so the quarterly bearish reversal had 1 to 3 quarters before time was up.

Armstrong wrote on his private blog on the first of March our quarterly level of the model generated a bullish reversal at the end of the year reversing its short position and going long. This also signaled that gold would rally from the $1060 area and should test the next bullish reversal at the $1347 level."

Not sure if you are aware or not but you are losing this discussion.  

Here we go. You are providing the proof of my assertion yourself!

Hindsight, Fraud. This hindsight message is fraudulent misrepresentation of performance, pure fraud!
Now here you are saying, and I know you are speaking for Martin Armstrong, that


Martin Armstrong had this information, this bullish signal, the fact that his model went long - at the end of the year - but at the same time failed to tell his clients?

In fact he sent the opposite signal to his clients at the time!

If he knew this at the time when he claimed the system went long, and let's assume for the sake of argument that what you say is true then he could have been trading against his clients because he published this signal only three months later.

You are not worth the respect of a single honest being on earth! You are a fraud!


And yes, I have all the reports. How could I otherwise quote them? I have everything!

More importantly, all other people who lost, they have everything as well.



Here is a detailed time line of the events:


Quarterly Superposition Event in Gold 2015

https://i.imgur.com/rOgqowQ.jpg
Martin A. Armstrong: convicted felon, shameless conman, schizophrenic crackpot & financial comedian

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

You're just spamming. Spend the time learning to use the system instead. For your own sake.

[over45]

How the hell do you block these trolls? Their spam takes up all the space..

You can't stop the Garbageman from posting his repeat diatribe.  That it the only way they can bury your replies in this thread.  They will keep doing it because we are smart enough to understand what Armstrong provides -- and they are not.

[Traxo]

To keep the thread readable, readers are advised to ignore following 4 users:  

WHATEVERBABY2 - deceased
WHATEVERBABY3 - deceased
truth727 - WHATEVERBABY's latest sock
m96  
over45  
DigiLab

they have tried to brainwash you into subscribing to Socrates service, without actually trying to discuss any issue at all (see quotes below).
I asked them numerous times to refute something, if they have something to refute. Instead they resort to spam the thread.
You can check either last few pages here, or their recent post history, it doesn't take much to figure out that they have contributed only spam and ad-hominem.

Thus it's possible that they are paid trolls, I don't see what would be any other motive to do what they are doing (perhaps simply cult members who went insane? Who knows.).

i found socrates basically a waste of time for the average guy its his baby let him use it don't waste your cash on it. it costs £11 $15usd for private blog per month and that is well worth it.

If you are unaware of Socrates - it is an AI driven service following the financial markets.  Worth every penny.  

No, its not illegal. Nothing is sold on those premises. It's stated clearly in the terms of service what you pay for and not.

Btw, the book arrived "Manipulating the world economy", half way through it, it's worth every dollar.

Thus I have ignored them, and deleted my replies to them. I will not reply to them any further.
Judge it for yourselves of course, subscribe at your peril.  


Again, if there is something specific they have to refute, they will always be welcome to do so. Be coherent tho.
Of course, they will never be able to do it, because we already know they are being dishonest spammers.

They had been warned earlier:  
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg53836776#msg53836776


Just to mention few things they might refute if they care about having civil discussion, here is a recap of my recent writings:  

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg53513881#msg53513881

Here is organized blog by @AnonymousCoder:  

https://armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com/

@m96, @WHATEVERBABY2, @over45 et al...


IF YOU ARE NOT INTERESTED IN GETTING ANY CREDIBILITY, OR GETTING THE "TRUTH" OUT
THEN WHAT THE HECK ARE YOU DOING HERE IN THE FIRST PLACE?

Again, if there is anything at all you want to refute, do so or kindly stop being a waste of bandwidth and time.


UPDATE 02/26:  
WHATEVERBABY2 got nuked, but apparently he reincarnated WHATEVERBABY3.  

[over45]

Attn:  Moderator  -- would you please instruct Anonymous Coder and Traxo to stop posting the same thing over and over again.   Thank you.

[Alex-11]

Attn:  Moderator  -- would you please instruct Anonymous Coder and Traxo to stop posting the same thing over and over again.   Thank you.

Moderators here don't care that people changed to blind destruction mode

[hulla]

Attn:  Moderator  -- would you please instruct Anonymous Coder and Traxo to stop posting the same thing over and over again.   Thank you.

Moderators here don't care that people changed to blind destruction mode

Dont say that the moderators are doing their job very well but I think they are somehow busy these days and i can assure you that those users may be ban for repost the same thing over again.

Enough of that, is there any new ridiculous statement from the man named Armstrong?