Martin Armstrong Discussion

[luckyplate]

Is this from his ,gold private blog on jan2020
??

Can you post exact update from Martin.

I notice year end that Armstrong is now saying that Gold should no longer collapse & that it is most likely to retest support at the 1400 level.

So having been a bear on Gold since 2015 in every WEC & slating all the Goldbugs I guess this is his way of saying....whoops, got that one wrong!

[SOC1]

Yes this is taken from the private blog, I won't post the exact update for obvious reasons but this is clearly a major U-turn in his 'predictions'.

Is this from his ,gold private blog on jan2020
??

Can you post exact update from Martin.

I notice year end that Armstrong is now saying that Gold should no longer collapse & that it is most likely to retest support at the 1400 level.

So having been a bear on Gold since 2015 in every WEC & slating all the Goldbugs I guess this is his way of saying....whoops, got that one wrong!

[luckyplate]

So Martin say gold will retest 1400 level  in 2020 again ?
Not expecting a breakout in Jan ?? I thought gold  price has just break out and heading above 1515.
Not much difference from his private blog in December as he expects it to break below 1400 for the worst scenario .now he is expecting gold to bottom around 1400 .this is very important .

Yes this is taken from the private blog, I won't post the exact update for obvious reasons but this is clearly a major U-turn in his 'predictions'.

Is this from his ,gold private blog on jan2020
??

Can you post exact update from Martin.

I notice year end that Armstrong is now saying that Gold should no longer collapse & that it is most likely to retest support at the 1400 level.

So having been a bear on Gold since 2015 in every WEC & slating all the Goldbugs I guess this is his way of saying....whoops, got that one wrong!

[over45]

I follow Armstrong and understand what he is offering and value his information.  I would like to discuss some of his macro predictions and forecasts in private if anyone is interested.  Please send me a message.  Tks.

Yes this is taken from the private blog, I won't post the exact update for obvious reasons but this is clearly a major U-turn in his 'predictions'.

Is this from his ,gold private blog on jan2020
??

Can you post exact update from Martin.

I notice year end that Armstrong is now saying that Gold should no longer collapse & that it is most likely to retest support at the 1400 level.

So having been a bear on Gold since 2015 in every WEC & slating all the Goldbugs I guess this is his way of saying....whoops, got that one wrong!

[Negotiation]

Martin Armstrong is good because he has led many forums in this forum that allow us to work very easily. He has created many blogs and models that make our transactions a lot easier. We will improve a lot by working on this site to see what is to come And for those who do businese  looking at Martin Armstrong's model will make the job a lot easier.

[luckyplate]

I am ok to discuss at tanjem@hotmail.com

I follow Armstrong and understand what he is offering and value his information.  I would like to discuss some of his macro predictions and forecasts in private if anyone is interested.  Please send me a message.  Tks.

Yes this is taken from the private blog, I won't post the exact update for obvious reasons but this is clearly a major U-turn in his 'predictions'.

Is this from his ,gold private blog on jan2020
??

Can you post exact update from Martin.

I notice year end that Armstrong is now saying that Gold should no longer collapse & that it is most likely to retest support at the 1400 level.

So having been a bear on Gold since 2015 in every WEC & slating all the Goldbugs I guess this is his way of saying....whoops, got that one wrong!

[trulycoined]

I just wanna know, what is your opinion on these claims:

-Euro is gonna collapse, European Union will fall
-Dollar is gonna go up a lot
-Dow Jones will keep going up to 35000 points, because with negative interest rates in Europe that's where the money will go
-Despite the strong dollar, Gold will go up significantly because of people won't trust the governments anymore.
-Copper will go up because of electric vehicles and demand in China.
-Emerging markets are gonna pop up because of strong dollar, they won't be able to pay the debt denominat

So in other words, I don't care when this shit is gonna happen according to Armstrong,
I feel like some of these claims will happen because of the nature of the things in the markets and I wanna know how you guys feel about this.

Can you tell me which of these claims make sense to you?

Only because it is the NY and you insist, I will give you my thoughts, and tie it back to MA's ECM, which is essentially what he uses (allegedly) to predict such socioeconomic flash points:

-Euro is gonna collapse, European Union will fall
MA claims the euro is structurally flawed, and I find his explanation logical and agreeable, though it is almost impossible to verify his theory. Whether it will collapse - who knows? Even USD went through serious problems in its first few decades and if the euro collapses, so too does the world economy, so I would rather it not even though I am anti-EU.

IMF has urged the EU to move to a digital currency, something MA has written about, and that may be the evolution of the currency, which would extend its life. No currency in human history has lasted the test of time, so will the euro and even USD exist in another 50 years? Quite likely. In 200 years? Probably not. It really is anyone's guess what will happen and I am not convinced MA and his "machine" know either.

Ditto political unions. They too have not lasted and commonly end in some kind of conflict. I do not expect the EU to still exist in 50 years time, where already there are deep fractures across the bloc from economic, to social and cultural. Every pillar of society has conflict in the EU and that is what will tear it apart. Again, the date of that is anyone's guess, and I have become increasingly unconvinced that the ECM truly is "accurate to the day" or even useful.


-Dollar is gonna go up a lot
Depends entirely on the currency pair and how far back in time you go to smooth out volatility. Despite all the shrieks about Brexit trashing GBP/USD, GBP has lost value against USD for every decade since 1871; and against the EUR, every 5 years since 1999. GBP has never regained its former highs. So in some ways, predictions like these are a sure fire bet based on historic trends - MA and his Socrates not needed - but it will one day reverse, which is also based on historic trends. USD will remain strong for as long as the US is an economic superpower. Once China predictably takes the baton, USD will begin weakening perhaps for as long as it has been strengthening (150 years) or until a new currency is created.

Generally, the "world" currency appreciates with the rise and fall of civilisations. Pre-US empire, sterling hit all time highs up until the British empire ended after WWII. The Dutch guilder rocketed and then tanked in line with the Dutch empire, which ended mid 17th Century.

The same fate awaits USD. Again, MA and his "machine" not needed to predict this. Like how there will definitely be another recession in the future. It WILL happen. When it happens - who knows?


-Dow Jones will keep going up to 35000 points, because with negative interest rates in Europe that's where the money will go
Again, anyone's guess and MA has continually called the Dow highs wrong. His predictions seem no better than any other analyst. Where sovereign debt is bankrupting nation states, and so making safe havens like bonds toxic, then it does make sense for big money to buy up significant chunks of private assets, which would include blue chips on the Dow. The EU has major issues, but any flight of capital to US stocks is probably more to do with the likelihood of future returns + FX fluctuations favouring USD + diversifying portfolios, rather than snubbing equities listed on EU bourses because of interest rates, which doesn't make much sense.


-Despite the strong dollar, Gold will go up significantly because of people won't trust the governments anymore.
If citizens no longer trust government then commonly revolution/civil war breaks out. Not sure how much use gold will be then and even if it does spike, the malaise will be such you probably won't be selling it; by the time society goes back to normal, the price will fall and you'd end up where you started. Rather than double guess any of this, the best traders/hedge funds have diversified portfolios for reason, including investments in precious metals. So really your portfolio should be structured in such a way that if one asset class unexpectedly tanks, another spikes. You buy your portfolio assets regularly (weekly or monthly) meaning you buy on the way up and down. Over the long term, it averages out to a large gain with compound interest factored in (inflation, dividend reinvestment). At that point, you won't care what the asset is as you are still making money and it is part of your portfolio strategy.


-Copper will go up because of electric vehicles and demand in China.
Who knows and I don't know enough about metals to make any claim and certainly wouldn't invest in it. Can't recall much MA content about copper. If I wanted exposure to metals, I would buy a fund. Again, this goes back to my above point about a carefully structured and diversified portfolio, investing in things you understand.

At the 2018 WEC, MA was quite adamant the period of 2020-2024 would be very bullish for commodities, and so very good for the AU and CA stock markets. Hence, the takeaway would be buy an index of the main AU and CA markets now. Sell them in 2024.

However, a similar prediction/forecast from years back was about failed crop harvests and the rising price of food. However, checking some of the main agricultural indexes, and they have continued declining, making a bad trade: https://us.spindices.com/indices/commodities/sp-gsci-agriculture

I would be very cautious investing even in indexes of CA and AU, but MA was VERY adamant they would be good investment markets for the first 4 years of the 20s.

Let's see if his Jan 18 2020 forecast comes to pass...
While the ECM is turning in January 2020, that appears to be impacting more externally to Europe. Europe may see economic turmoil into 2021.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/europe-how-bad-can-this-get/


-Emerging markets are gonna pop up because of strong dollar, they won't be able to pay the debt denominat
Also impossible to properly verify, though this MA theory is interesting. It makes sense. Some emerging markets have actually strengthened against USD (Thai baht), meaning they are now finding it easier to pay down USD denominated debt. It isn't linear or a one-way bet of USD good, all other currencies bad. Almost all nations are in huge debt, but currency is essentially backed up by GDP, so those nations with the greatest economic output will have more resilient currencies. That too makes sense and has historical precedence.


Notice how none of the above requires consuming MA's content or acting upon potentially flawed / bogus ECM "forecasts"?...

[AnonymousCoder]

...
Notice how none of the above requires consuming MA's content or acting upon potentially flawed / bogus ECM "forecasts"...

I agree.

We can prove that Martin Armstrong often fits his model in hindsight to some common sense discovery. He then later fraudulently claims that his model predicted what others have concluded after their research.

We have a good example with The Myth of the Martin Armstrong Global Cooling Prediction.

Even before global cooling was on the agenda, he disagreed with the anthropogenic global warming. At that time he did not have a global cooling forecast.

So yes, we do not need the ECM and Socrates for making sound trading decisions.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.

See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog

[over45]

The Armstrong bashers here seem to think Armstrong has to base all of his forecasts on facts that he alone develops.  He is a student of history and uses history as his guide.  It's the same way anyone learns - they listen, read and take in information from people that were there before them.

I will bet you all of the bashers here read his blog regularly and gain good information and have profited from it.  You may have the time to do god knows how many hours of research to come up with similar resources and facts - but would you know where to look or reach a similar conclusion without reviewing his writings or forecasts ?  He was predicting what is happening now - fairly accurately - 30 years ago.  He wrote the Greatest Bull Market in History probably before some here were born.

He and Socrates are not perfect.  No one can be.  But bashing someone who clearly knows one hell of a lot more that you do - and has the work history, following, and money to prove it - makes you look jealous and petty.  If you think you know more than he does - start your own investment firm/ai company and convince sovereign wealth funds and billionaires to put their money in your care.  Good luck with that...

[AnonymousCoder]

The Armstrong bashers here seem to think Armstrong has to base all of his forecasts on facts that he alone develops. He is a student of history and uses history as his guide. It's the same way anyone learns - they listen, read and take in information from people that were there before them.

I will bet you all of the bashers here read his blog regularly and gain good information and have profited from it. You may have the time to do god knows how many hours of research to come up with similar resources and facts - but would you know where to look or reach a similar conclusion without reviewing his writings or forecasts - He was predicting what is happening now - fairly accurately - 30 years ago. He wrote the Greatest Bull Market in History probably before some here were born.

He and Socrates are not perfect. No one can be. But bashing someone who clearly knows one hell of a lot more that you do - and has the work history, following, and money to prove it - makes you look jealous and petty. If you think you know more than he does - start your own investment firm/ai company and convince sovereign wealth funds and billionaires to put their money in your care. Good luck with that...

BULLSHIT! You are getting confused.

We are not claiming here that forecasts must be perfect. This is effectively what you are saying, right?

What the "Armstrong bashers" as you call them are doing here is quite clear:

Look at this:

Monthly Reversal Failures December 2018 and Quarterly Superposition Event in Gold 2015.

We are accusing Armstrong of claiming in hindsight that his forecasts were correct where in fact they are wrong.

In fact, we are accusing him of fraud.

In that way, sorry, you are not better than Armstrong himself - you cannot even get the facts right.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.

See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog

[over45]

We are not claiming here that forecasts must be perfect. This is effectively what you are saying, right?

No.  Wrong again. 


In fact, we are accusing him of fraud.


No you're not.  You are trying to defend a position.  If you were accusing him of fraud you would actually do that - accuse him personally and professionally of fraud and take legal action.  Do it formally.  Confront him with a legal filing or public article in the newspaper.  Why not do that?  Because you know he'd eat you alive.  You are not credible. 

Take him to court.  Here is how the proceedings would go:

Judge:  You are accusing M.A. of fraud.
You:  Yes your honor
Judge: Did your read the terms and conditions on the site?
You:  Yes your honor
Judge:  Case dismissed.  Pay M.A.'s atty fees for filing a frivolous lawsuit.

[AnonymousCoder]

We are not claiming here that forecasts must be perfect. This is effectively what you are saying, right?

No. Wrong again.


In fact, we are accusing him of fraud.


No you're not. You are trying to defend a position. If you were accusing him of fraud you would actually do that - accuse him personally and professionally of fraud and take legal action. Do it formally. Confront him with a legal filing or public article in the newspaper. Why not do that? Because you know he'd eat you alive. You are not credible.

Take him to court. Here is how the proceedings would go:

Judge: You are accusing M.A. of fraud.
You: Yes your honor
Judge: Did your read the terms and conditions on the site?
You: Yes your honor
Judge: Case dismissed. Pay M.A.'s atty fees for filing a frivolous lawsuit.

You are making assumptions again. Since when do some terms and conditions on some web site apply to the universe?

If you were correct, then all I would need to commit the perfect crime are some terms and conditions on a web site, and any case against me would be dismissed as you just suggested.

Because I have terms and conditions which give me the Get Out of Jail Free card?

Not worth even discussing.

In case you have missed it, what counts here is that people who are looking for information are getting the tools to evaluate Martin Armstrong's products and services.

And many have expressed their gratitude for the information available here.

I don't really care much about you if you have a different agenda such as defending Martin Armstrong.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.

See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog

[trulycoined]

The Armstrong bashers here seem to think... He and Socrates are not perfect.  No one can be...  But bashing someone... makes you look jealous and petty.  If you think you know more than he does - start your own investment firm/ai company and convince sovereign wealth funds and billionaires to put their money in your care.  Good luck with that...

To bash someone is to fiercely criticise, and I don't think anyone here is doing such a thing other than simply evidencing:

1. The times MA has been wrong
2. The ambiguity of his writings
3. The likelihood he is faking reader questions
4. Debunking his bogus claims e.g. that Socrates is hosted on IBM Sequoia
5. Evidencing how Socrates is impossible to trade from.

There is no other forum where MA's work can be objectively discussed, not least as he does not allow comments on his website, and if you attend his WEC - there isn't even a facility to share contact details with other attendees other than physically handing someone a business card. That, despite WEC attendees having access to an online event platform, which does not allow for easy comms with other attendees.

MA appears to tightly control the narrative and conversation around him and his work, and thus this type of forum is needed and a valuable resource.

Criticism of MA is justified where it would be nice to see some humility from him. Why doesn't he produce an annual review that lists all of his good and bad forecasts? Why doesn't he ever talk about any of his trades (assuming he is allowed to trade)? Why doesn't he explain why Socrates/ECM has called significant dates where nothing of note happened?


To your point about "jealousy" - that is just ridiculous if you read what I have said above.

Speaking of the MA book you mention, someone on Amazon has left a 3 star review. Does that now mean they are "jealous" of MA?


No one on these boards is claiming to have all the answers, but MA is. Or at least, he claims Socrates/the ECM does have all the answers. So your confused comment also makes little sense about setting up our own investment firm, not least as MA does not run an investment firm, he runs a content publishing business aimed at retail investors.

None of us are claiming we can "forecast" better than MA nor develop some (likely made up) AI supercomputer. All we are saying is if he is a charlatan, ethically that is not something we agree with, and hence why this whole discussion has started.


Additionally, if you want to know about real, genuine investment firms who really do use AI as part of their trading approach, see:

Renaissance Technologies
Two Sigma


Now compare the above to MA's "investment firm":
https://aeglobalsolutionsinc.com/

and

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/


Those hedge funds are doing the very thing MA claims he is doing, only without the subterfuge and constantly calling some prophesied day of financial Armageddon that was supposed to happen on 2015.75. Commonly, at least in the annals of human psychology, those beating the drum of impending doom - with a following of disciples who never question their enlightened leader - are often running a cult that is based on the invention of the mind, not the truth of reality.

[Gumbi]

@AnonymousCoder

"The election of the first reversal point indicates that a move to the second reversal is likely. An election of the second reversal point signifies a move to the third point is probable and so on."
https://ask-socrates.com/How-To-Use-Reversal-System

 The Dow had already MOVED to test the 21600 level(3rd monthly bearish) the same month it elected 2 others.  What you are implying does not make any sense. You are suggesting the market must retest 21600 again for a second time…

[dibley8899]

I follow Armstrong and understand what he is offering and value his information.  I would like to discuss some of his macro predictions and forecasts in private if anyone is interested.  Please send me a message.  Tks.


"Important Note
Ask-Socrates platform is not an individualized trading advisory service, nor is it a brokerage or money management service. This is a simply an innovative, proprietary research and information system to help broaden perspective, intended to be a supplement to other tools and information members can use to fit their needs. To learn more, please read out Terms and Conditions of Use carefully."

Here he is telling you not to use this for forecasts or trading, its just about whether you are dumb enough not to read the fine print like gumbi.

[nstrdms]

4. Debunking his bogus claims e.g. that Socrates is hosted on IBM Sequoia

If it wasn't for this forum, I would have likely never come across these wild claims, such as:

"We are porting all systems to the IBM Sequoia...Time Share slots will be available at $5 million up to $100 million annually depending upon the size and international scope of the portfolio. Our actual annual cost just in energy to run such a system is in excess of $6 million.  Those selected institutions interested in such a comprehensive system that does not rely upon human opinion, should contact..."

[Traxo]

The Armstrong bashers here [...]

[...] You are not credible.  

Piss off, doofus.  
Everything we said here was backed up with direct, black-and-white quotes from Martin Armstrong.  
If there is something specific you want to refute, be coherent. Stop polluting thread with nonsense (ditto other cult members shills here).

I will bet you all of the bashers here read his blog regularly and gain good information and have profited from it.  You may have the time to do god knows how many hours of research to come up with similar resources and facts - but would you know where to look or reach a similar conclusion without reviewing his writings or forecasts ?

That makes him CONTENT CURATOR at best. Nothing more.  
Why would I tolerate him deceiving others just because he's a curator?

[Traxo]

He and Socrates are not perfect.  No one can be.

Thing is that he often implies (or even flat out claims) that his computer's predictions can't possibly be wrong, thus deceiving readers.
For example:  

I greatly appreciate the confidence saying I am newer wrong. But on an individual level, NOBODY can possibly be right all the time. This is why I try to emphasize that the numbers are the numbers and that all we can do is watch how everything unfolds. I have no personal vision of the future and what I fear I would not say publicly anyway for that is just opinion.  
All I can do is say this is what has happened in the past and express what the computer says – not ME. The markets are the only infallible guide if you just listen..

It is NOT that I am never wrong. Personally, that is just not possible. I try to qualify what I “think” from the model.

If we get signals in all, it is hard to be wrong for this is NOT my personal OPINION. You can see the future unfold in slow-motion.

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, Have you ever been wrong?

ANSWER: On a personal level, of course.

[...]

If I was personally infallible, then why build a computer?

Posted Jan 26, 2013 by Martin Armstrong

But our computer has been forecasting politics for the last 30 years and it has never been wrong yet in any country.

He also implies that he can predict long-term with 100% accuracy, which actually then makes it "perfect" prediction machine for some events and time-spans:  

The Long-Term is far easier to predict with even 100% accuracy than Short-Term.

So if he acknowledges that he's not always correct, how come he NEVER admitted when his computer was wrong? Or perhaps I missed such confession?  
Did he ever come out and said Well guys, this is one time in 30 years that computer's forecast was wrong. I don't think he has.
In fact when he's wrong, he just brainwashes you into thinking he was right, see for example his 2016 elections "long-term" "prediction":  

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg53486641#msg53486641

[AnonymousCoder]

The System

I think that at least after viewing Traxo's latest comments, people here are starting to understand.

With that I mean that the discussion has matured from people trying to find ways to make the Socrates system work for them (which failed), to proving how Martin Armstrong fraudulently misrepresents the performance of his wider system, not limited to Socrates, to be always right, to the point where we show that he even has designed features into the Socrates system that generate misleading information to that end. The latter I call "computerized fraud". See Revision Signals.

His staff (Gumbi as an example) obviously have a script that they follow to rectify any case of failure with the outcome that the user made a mistake and the system was right, concluding that the user would have experienced success without making that mistake.

Martin Armstrong has spent decades to refine his techniques of multi-layered deception and fraud, the System.

We are trying to keep our approach clean, focusing on the aspect of proving the above without any doubt with a set of case studies or examples, building a reference library based on them.

In that context, it is useful to show that Martin Armstrong has multiple ways of forecasting that are self-fulfilling, or self-actualizing as can be seen in A Self-fulfilling Financial Forecast.

He has a way of indirectly claiming ownership of third party ideas and forecasts by letting "others" give him credit while not denying their statements. See The Fan Email Confidence Trick. This results in scientific fraud.

With these techniques and others, combined, Martin Armstrong has developed a fraud system where every single component is small enough to be almost undetectable by the untrained eye. But the combined set, the whole is perfect. It lets him fool everybody, all the time.

Almost.
 

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.

See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog

[s29]

I notice year end that Armstrong is now saying that Gold should no longer collapse & that it is most likely to retest support at the 1400 level.

I see that Gold is retesting the heck out of that 1400 level on the US-attack of the Iranian general...  
Socrates sure as hell saw that one coming