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Author Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion  (Read 615776 times)
unwashed
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August 01, 2019, 03:50:56 PM
 #6181

I should of mentioned this yesterday but with trades on the floor I didn't want to jinx it lol. Yesterday was a pure SELL THE NEWS on the Feds rate cut and the NFP on Friday which is always a market mover. Today is typical 2 Day reversal in TA and moves to reclaim the 27K breakout.

This is the problem with MA system it doesn't take sentiment into consideration and you get whipsawed to death. You can't just play it by the numbers for day or short term trading.

The DOW is already back in the channel. I traded it as it was supposed to be traded with a 10% gain because I was short before the news and I was out this morning. As you say, Socrates trades the fake breakout and produces whipsaw. Buy the high sell the low as I wrote before. And it cannot figure out whether the market is going sideways or trending. It is as simple as that. The olegray trade is a loss already.

Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud

See https://armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog
Nice trade, I didn't participate but it was so obvious.
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August 01, 2019, 05:10:08 PM
 #6182

The DOW elected the bearish daily reversal at 27068.78 with the Dow closing at 26864.3, a 0.76% difference.  I have bought DOG which is an inverse ETF for the dow.  

Are holding your short for three days now because you concluded that this should be the trading period?

Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud

See https://armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog
I am holding according to these rules:

Trading Rules:
Stop loss is set at the nearest opposite reversal, but only a closing basis for the selected timeunit

If elected reversal is less than 1%:
•   Sell on second timeunit closing if true
•   Sell on third timeunit closing if second is false and third is true
•   Sell on third timeunit closing if all three timeunits are false
•   Sell on first timeunit closing if true and the corresponding opening to closing is opposite the elected reversal (bearish for an elected bullish and
        bullish for an elected bearish reversal)

If elected reversal is less more than 1%:
•   If first timeunit is true, sell on second timeunit
•   If first timeunit is false and second is true, check if the first closing is above the reversal for bullish or below for bearish.  If so this is a "successful
        retest" of the reversal.  Sell on third timeunit (second after the "retest")
•   If all three timeunits are false, wait unit the closing is above the election of a reversal, a "successful closing", for the corresponding timeunit, (ex.
        Monthly closing for elected monthly reversals, weekly closing for weekly reversals, daily closing for elected daily closing) Sell two timeunits after
        the "successful closing"

For all elected reversals:
•   If the first timeunit is a doji candle but true, sell
•   If another reversal is elected on or before the "sell timeunit", then the time is reset for the previous elected reversal, add to position and follow the
        rules for the latest elected reversal for all positions.  This signal overpowers all other signals
•   If multiple successive reversals are elected and the closing of the first timeunit of the latest reversal is a doji candle that closes very close to the
        election closing, sell all positions (works for bullish to bullish, bearish to bearish, bullish to bearish, and bearish to bullish)


@olegrey, since you did NOT state what's your time unit, and you took your trade not at the CLOSING of the week, and you are using DAILY reversals, I'm assuming that your time unit is DAY for your trade.

You also need to post the reversals, for people to evaluate your entry/exit criteria.

CLEAR trading rules respect to buy/sell CAN be evaluated and tested.  Armstrong NEVER posted any complete set of trading rules can be evaluated, since he simply intends to claim excellence through muddy water.

I'm assuming that the ABOVE trading rules apply to EXIT.  And your ENTRY was based on the ELECTED bearish reversal ON July 31st for Dow's closing at 26864.27.

Based on your first/second/third counts above, and the elected reversal was less than 1%, I assume that you will be EXITING the trade within 3 days according to your rule.

Once you close your trade within 3 days, please explain which of the above rule was selected.

Then we can repeat your experiment for more times to see how well it works.
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August 01, 2019, 06:01:20 PM
 #6183

The DOW elected the bearish daily reversal at 27068.78 with the Dow closing at 26864.3, a 0.76% difference.  I have bought DOG which is an inverse ETF for the dow.  

Are holding your short for three days now because you concluded that this should be the trading period?

Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud

See https://armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog
I am holding according to these rules:

Trading Rules:
Stop loss is set at the nearest opposite reversal, but only a closing basis for the selected timeunit

If elected reversal is less than 1%:
•   Sell on second timeunit closing if true
•   Sell on third timeunit closing if second is false and third is true
•   Sell on third timeunit closing if all three timeunits are false
•   Sell on first timeunit closing if true and the corresponding opening to closing is opposite the elected reversal (bearish for an elected bullish and
        bullish for an elected bearish reversal)

If elected reversal is less more than 1%:
•   If first timeunit is true, sell on second timeunit
•   If first timeunit is false and second is true, check if the first closing is above the reversal for bullish or below for bearish.  If so this is a "successful
        retest" of the reversal.  Sell on third timeunit (second after the "retest")
•   If all three timeunits are false, wait unit the closing is above the election of a reversal, a "successful closing", for the corresponding timeunit, (ex.
        Monthly closing for elected monthly reversals, weekly closing for weekly reversals, daily closing for elected daily closing) Sell two timeunits after
        the "successful closing"

For all elected reversals:
•   If the first timeunit is a doji candle but true, sell
•   If another reversal is elected on or before the "sell timeunit", then the time is reset for the previous elected reversal, add to position and follow the
        rules for the latest elected reversal for all positions.  This signal overpowers all other signals
•   If multiple successive reversals are elected and the closing of the first timeunit of the latest reversal is a doji candle that closes very close to the
        election closing, sell all positions (works for bullish to bullish, bearish to bearish, bullish to bearish, and bearish to bullish)


@olegrey, since you did NOT state what's your time unit, and you took your trade not at the CLOSING of the week, and you are using DAILY reversals, I'm assuming that your time unit is DAY for your trade.

You also need to post the reversals, for people to evaluate your entry/exit criteria.

CLEAR trading rules respect to buy/sell CAN be evaluated and tested.  Armstrong NEVER posted any complete set of trading rules can be evaluated, since he simply intends to claim excellence through muddy water.

I'm assuming that the ABOVE trading rules apply to EXIT.  And your ENTRY was based on the ELECTED bearish reversal ON July 31st for Dow's closing at 26864.27.

Based on your first/second/third counts above, and the elected reversal was less than 1%, I assume that you will be EXITING the trade within 3 days according to your rule.

Once you close your trade within 3 days, please explain which of the above rule was selected.

Then we can repeat your experiment for more times to see how well it works.

I posted my live trade on on page 308
olegrey
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August 01, 2019, 08:27:58 PM
 #6184

...
@AnonymousCoder... You've added a lot of value and done well at exposing the serious and multiple flaws in MA/Socrates.

In order for this to gain more traction and broader recognition then people need to be able to evaluate and come to the same conclusion. As was the case with so many people already on this blog who have studied, attempted, and seen the holes in the system and MA's commentary.

Assisting them in that process is the best way of achieving wider acknowledgement as opposed to a combative angle.


The problem is now: It is very obvious that "evaluating" costs serious subscription money which people like me have already spent, and that money is down the drain for most people anyway because what they get is STILL not enough. And who has years of time to come to a conclusion which will inevitably be similar to mine?


I have given assistance on different levels. Answering all questions  except sharing my entire data cache which is what olegrey insisted on. That is not possible for some reasons.

I have seen where olegrey challenged the data I have provided by simply changing the trading period - effectively curve fitting it. People are free to do that, but they inevitably pay a price. If people still think they can get some profit out of a "system" sold by an outfit that is run by a charlatan with a criminal record, they deserve my sarcasm.

Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud

See https://armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog

You don't need to share your entire data cache, I'll take whatever you're willing to give
olegrey
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August 01, 2019, 08:34:57 PM
 #6185

The DOW elected the daily bearish reversal of 26665.56 with a closing of 26583.4.  I have bought another order of DOG.  The previous order is now reset to this elected reversal's timing
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August 01, 2019, 08:59:30 PM
Last edit: August 01, 2019, 09:14:42 PM by AnonymousCoder
 #6186

You don't need to share your entire data cache, I'll take whatever you're willing to give

Sorry, I am finished with he whole subject. Everything has to come to an end somehow. I have wasted years of my life with this, and I have my own conclusions which are now more valuable to me than ever before. One is that the deeper you dig into the Armstrong data, the more confusing it gets.

The simple reason is that ALL data, be it reversals, forecast arrays, energy, pivots, whatever you call it, comes from the same time series. This is very primitive, and far from what Martin Armstrong claims about his computer which is that it correlates everything with everything. No way. That is a lie. Armstrong is really a simpleton and he does not have an understanding of scientific methods. He just uses certain words like a good salesman.

If I provided more data then I would just encourage people to do the same thing that Armstrong does, trying to derive more information from this single dimension, his data that was derived again only from a single time series, taking this ridiculous process even further to the next level. It would be crazy. There is only so much information in a single piece of data and re-processing it over and over through different filters once again will not make you any wiser.

In other words, there is no way that the history of a single time series of a stock market index can possibly predict that the FED does not cut interest rates enough so the market declines, then recovers, and then later Trump tweets that he will impose another 300 Billion of China tariffs, therefore driving the index lower once again. Someone who claims that this can be done is a liar, and we know who that is.

So, I hope that you appreciate that I am not sharing any more data. In order to put an end to this nonsense at least from my end because people will waste time trying to get something useful out of it for their advantage which I know is not possible.

And I am fairly confident that you are not going to get the data from anywhere else because Armstrong will do whatever it takes to avoid it because it would reveal what a scam Socrates is. Well as far as he can because as a programmer he is incompetent. Otherwise, being a complete outsider, I would not be allowed to develop the means to get all the data I want from that "system". I am gone.

Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud

See https://armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog
olegrey
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August 01, 2019, 09:20:17 PM
 #6187

You don't need to share your entire data cache, I'll take whatever you're willing to give

Sorry, I am finished with he whole subject. Everything has to come to an end somehow. I have wasted years of my life with this, and I have my own conclusions which are now more valuable to me than ever before. One is that the deeper you dig into the Armstrong data, the more confusing it gets.

The simple reason is that ALL data, be it reversals, forecast arrays, energy, pivots, whatever you call it, comes from the same time series. This is very primitive, and far from what Martin Armstrong claims about his computer which is that it correlates everything with everything. No way. That is a lie. Armstrong is really a simpleton and he does not have an understanding of scientific methods. He just uses certain words like a good salesman.

If I provided more data then I would just encourage people to do the same thing that Armstrong does, trying to derive more information from this single dimension, his data that was derived again only from a single time series, taking this ridiculous process even further to the next level. It would be crazy. There is only so much information in a single piece of data and re-processing it over and over through different filters once again will not make you any wiser.

In other words, there is no way that the history of a single time series of a stock market index can possibly predict that the FED does not cut interest rates enough so the market declines, then recovers, and then later Trump tweets that he will impose another 300 Billion of China tariffs, therefore driving the index lower once again. Someone who claims that this can be done is a liar, and we know who that is.

So, I hope that you appreciate that I am not sharing any more data. In order to put an end to this nonsense at least from my end because people will waste time trying to get something useful out of it for their advantage which I know is not possible.

And I am fairly confident that you are not going to get the data from anywhere else because Armstrong will do whatever it takes to avoid it because it would reveal what a scam Socrates is. Well as far as he can because as a programmer he is incompetent. Otherwise, being a complete outsider, I would not be allowed to develop the means to get all the data I want from that "system". I am gone.

Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud

See https://armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog
Ok
bikefront
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August 01, 2019, 10:15:00 PM
 #6188

I appreciate your putting up live trades for testing purposes with the criteria. In spite of the rally, the market still dropped. First day since election shows a profit, it seems. It is my understanding that the trade needs to be exited within 3 time units as long as it tests the next Reversal.

Managed to make off with a good chunk from the volatility by shorting near the high today. Theta did take a chunk out before the drop though, I almost closed the trade. Got lucky I suppose. Closed wayyyyy too early though, but it's all hindsight. Longed near the bottom and got a few percent- I think I got lucky there too. Expected more of a bounce at the time but then hindsight analysis again said otherwise. Hope vol stays. Good luck to all. Trading directional volatility can be rewarding, but dangerous as well. Armstrong likes to post a lot during volatility, and as I mentioned, he did well during the last correction based on the calls I remember. Of course, it might be due to trend bias- he was bearish through the whole uptrend after all. If the Reversals were the only thing to look at, he should have told his followers to go long after the 25100 weekly election from the low last time instead of 'DO NOT ATTEMPT TO LONG THIS MARKET'. Would be awesome to break December lows however!
unwashed
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August 01, 2019, 10:32:33 PM
 #6189

You don't need to share your entire data cache, I'll take whatever you're willing to give

Sorry, I am finished with he whole subject. Everything has to come to an end somehow. I have wasted years of my life with this, and I have my own conclusions which are now more valuable to me than ever before. One is that the deeper you dig into the Armstrong data, the more confusing it gets.

The simple reason is that ALL data, be it reversals, forecast arrays, energy, pivots, whatever you call it, comes from the same time series. This is very primitive, and far from what Martin Armstrong claims about his computer which is that it correlates everything with everything. No way. That is a lie. Armstrong is really a simpleton and he does not have an understanding of scientific methods. He just uses certain words like a good salesman.

If I provided more data then I would just encourage people to do the same thing that Armstrong does, trying to derive more information from this single dimension, his data that was derived again only from a single time series, taking this ridiculous process even further to the next level. It would be crazy. There is only so much information in a single piece of data and re-processing it over and over through different filters once again will not make you any wiser.

In other words, there is no way that the history of a single time series of a stock market index can possibly predict that the FED does not cut interest rates enough so the market declines, then recovers, and then later Trump tweets that he will impose another 300 Billion of China tariffs, therefore driving the index lower once again. Someone who claims that this can be done is a liar, and we know who that is.

So, I hope that you appreciate that I am not sharing any more data. In order to put an end to this nonsense at least from my end because people will waste time trying to get something useful out of it for their advantage which I know is not possible.

And I am fairly confident that you are not going to get the data from anywhere else because Armstrong will do whatever it takes to avoid it because it would reveal what a scam Socrates is. Well as far as he can because as a programmer he is incompetent. Otherwise, being a complete outsider, I would not be allowed to develop the means to get all the data I want from that "system". I am gone.

Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud

See https://armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog

This I absolutely agree with, Trumps big mouth drove the market to 180 degree turn. I wanted to ask olegrey, how can he say that his trade is valid with market news, especial trump, coming out and scaring the crap out of the market. That would mean that the reversals knew in advance that trump would open his fat mouth, sorry can't buy that.

IMO, first, a winning trade is always good but today's action was luck of the draw and trump bailed out the shorts.
olegrey
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August 01, 2019, 11:11:59 PM
 #6190

You don't need to share your entire data cache, I'll take whatever you're willing to give

Sorry, I am finished with he whole subject. Everything has to come to an end somehow. I have wasted years of my life with this, and I have my own conclusions which are now more valuable to me than ever before. One is that the deeper you dig into the Armstrong data, the more confusing it gets.

The simple reason is that ALL data, be it reversals, forecast arrays, energy, pivots, whatever you call it, comes from the same time series. This is very primitive, and far from what Martin Armstrong claims about his computer which is that it correlates everything with everything. No way. That is a lie. Armstrong is really a simpleton and he does not have an understanding of scientific methods. He just uses certain words like a good salesman.

If I provided more data then I would just encourage people to do the same thing that Armstrong does, trying to derive more information from this single dimension, his data that was derived again only from a single time series, taking this ridiculous process even further to the next level. It would be crazy. There is only so much information in a single piece of data and re-processing it over and over through different filters once again will not make you any wiser.

In other words, there is no way that the history of a single time series of a stock market index can possibly predict that the FED does not cut interest rates enough so the market declines, then recovers, and then later Trump tweets that he will impose another 300 Billion of China tariffs, therefore driving the index lower once again. Someone who claims that this can be done is a liar, and we know who that is.

So, I hope that you appreciate that I am not sharing any more data. In order to put an end to this nonsense at least from my end because people will waste time trying to get something useful out of it for their advantage which I know is not possible.

And I am fairly confident that you are not going to get the data from anywhere else because Armstrong will do whatever it takes to avoid it because it would reveal what a scam Socrates is. Well as far as he can because as a programmer he is incompetent. Otherwise, being a complete outsider, I would not be allowed to develop the means to get all the data I want from that "system". I am gone.

Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud

See https://armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog

This I absolutely agree with, Trumps big mouth drove the market to 180 degree turn. I wanted to ask olegrey, how can he say that his trade is valid with market news, especial trump, coming out and scaring the crap out of the market. That would mean that the reversals knew in advance that trump would open his fat mouth, sorry can't buy that.

IMO, first, a winning trade is always good but today's action was luck of the draw and trump bailed out the shorts.

I'll take it lol, we'll see how the next elected reversal does
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August 01, 2019, 11:20:17 PM
 #6191

I appreciate your putting up live trades for testing purposes with the criteria. In spite of the rally, the market still dropped. First day since election shows a profit, it seems. It is my understanding that the trade needs to be exited within 3 time units as long as it tests the next Reversal.
Yep, as long as another bearish reversal isn't elected my position will be sold within 3 days
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August 02, 2019, 02:19:19 AM
 #6192

I'm going to go with the reversals posted it the dashboard and see how it goes

Please note that it's not the table near the Stochastics, Indicating Range or Energy indicator widgets. This has the same data then the one in the Reversals tab.
Look further down in the Analysis text.

there is says:
Daily/weekly  REVERSAL TABLE
MINOR | MAJOR
BULLISH | BEARISH | BULLISH | BEARISH

This is the one I meant.
I see it.  Thank you very much! very helpful
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August 02, 2019, 06:21:14 AM
 #6193

That would mean that the reversals knew in advance that trump would open his fat mouth, sorry can't buy that.
Sometimes the news is only the catalyst for a trend that is in motion anyways or it coincidentally  happens that news is published near reversal points. Another possibility is that some market participants have insider knowledge  and the market is moving ahead of some news.
Sometime though, In my experience news will just blow away support or resistance of reversals. But there is a tendency that this doesn't happen.
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August 02, 2019, 12:08:18 PM
 #6194

That would mean that the reversals knew in advance that trump would open his fat mouth, sorry can't buy that.
Sometimes the news is only the catalyst for a trend that is in motion anyways or it coincidentally  happens that news is published near reversal points. Another possibility is that some market participants have insider knowledge  and the market is moving ahead of some news.
Sometime though, In my experience news will just blow away support or resistance of reversals. But there is a tendency that this doesn't happen.
Yes sometimes news is a catalyst and sometimes it's a dud. My point is, unless there was reversal in all instruments that reversed then the validity of the reversal is in question. I was long a FX trade yesterday and sold it for a profit cause it was turning and then trump comes out with a market moving tweet and the pair shoots up 10 more pips. Gold reversed also and was up 30 pts, Euro and Dollar reversed, so again unless there are reversal for all these and the many many others you really can't say the reversal worked. Coincidence yes, also known as luck. The first reversal fell on Fed day(sell the news) and the second on Tweet day (Trade war), not exactly a pure test IMO.
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August 02, 2019, 01:54:40 PM
 #6195

unless there are reversal for all these and the many many others you really can't say the reversal worked.
In the Arrays there it is a common situation that turning points allign in many markets.
With reversals I've also seem alignments, but I've not systematically investigated it.
However, if I trade only 1 instrument and the reversals works reliably, then why should care about other markets? Just to confirm a theory?  There are some mysteries about reversals (also for Armstrong himself), but IMO they can remain mysteries, as long as they don't bother my profit too much.
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August 02, 2019, 05:18:06 PM
 #6196

I had a long vol point marked out and the market hit it just 1 cent off. Vol moved before the news, implying either hedging or someone knew. I also bought the low today, and shorted the big drop. Technicals predict the fundamentals.
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August 02, 2019, 09:48:26 PM
Last edit: August 02, 2019, 09:59:31 PM by olegrey
 #6197

The DOW elected the bearish reversal of 26522.3 with a closing of 26485.0, a 0.14% difference.  A new position was bought in DOG.  All previously elected reversal sell rules are reset to this election
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August 03, 2019, 01:20:00 AM
 #6198

The DOW elected the bearish reversal of 26522.3 with a closing of 26485.0, a 0.14% difference.  A new position was bought in DOG.  All previously elected reversal sell rules are reset to this election

Weekly Bearish or Daily?
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August 03, 2019, 02:37:45 AM
 #6199

The DOW elected the bearish reversal of 26522.3 with a closing of 26485.0, a 0.14% difference.  A new position was bought in DOG.  All previously elected reversal sell rules are reset to this election

Weekly Bearish or Daily?
Daily
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August 03, 2019, 09:08:33 AM
 #6200

The DOW elected the bearish reversal of 26522.3 with a closing of 26485.0, a 0.14% difference.  A new position was bought in DOG.  All previously elected reversal sell rules are reset to this election

Weekly Bearish or Daily?
Daily

Sorry, personally I can't do anything with this, as MA has told numerous times, dailies are noise. It's scraping instead of trading.
Sure you have made some money now, well done. It might look like Socrates really works but most of us here have tried trading dailies and it's like flipping a coin, as data on this blog has proven.

What I am interested in now is what MA thinks of Government Bonds (and Bond proxies).
MA has stated many times yields going up and that we've seen the low.  But so far new lows have been made almost every week for the last few months. And looking at the macro side (rate of change) we might go a lot lower as we get closer to a possible recession.
I was hesitating to go in bonds as I think MA had a good point there but luckily enough a friend and investor convinced me otherwise so I bought some bonds (various time levels) early in the year and it's now one of the better macro investments YTD (also because of the low volatility). And I do think we still have a long way to go regarding US yields (we might go negative as well)

Does anyone has any insight if MA's opinion has changed?
I do think that in some places like Turkey yields could blow up leaving the government with no other decision than delaying payments and/or extending durations (ie 10yr becomes 20yr/30yr).
I just don't see it happening in the US or Europe. So if we are talking about a huge rise in worldwide yield levels, as MA has been doing, you need the yields to go up on a broad basis.
Of course if we go lower, at some point negative yields are not sustainable and things will change but we do not need a supercomputer to predict that.
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