Martin Armstrong Discussion

[s29]

Idd, Armstrong commentary over the past few days has been completely worthless in a practical sense.

[1714861934]

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[MTL4]

Please try to understand the following:

The forecast array has 12 columns. For the sake of argument, if each column had a turning point, what would the predictive value of it?

Zero.

If on the other hand, a forecast array had only a single turning point in it, then that would be something. But it would still be of a low value because it can be interpreted as both a low or a high.

The fact is that forecast arrays typically have more than one turning point, in fact many turning points, so the predictive value is low due to the resulting ambiguity.

I totally agree with you, from what I've had explained thus far (both at a WEC and from other supposed gurus on the subject) of MA's array rules and how to use them those arrays don't have any value as is IMHO.  Everyone says only the reversals are for trading (even more useless IMHO). What I am saying is that if you disregard all that and just look at the long-term row there may be some accuracy to whatever he's using to create it.  I've done alot of empirical testing on it against real market data and there appears to be some weak correlation but that's all I can postulate at this point.  Could it all be just circumstance, sure but the reverse could be true as well.  It's not after the fact because that array was around well before being used so we can at least rule that out.

Do we have any idea how he actually creates the arrays?

[Alex-11]

I've done alot of empirical testing on it against real market data

you may have done your testing on inaccurate array data. You can forget about the arrays from Feb. 2019  - August 2019 on ask-socrates.com.  I'm sure they were completely faulty during that time.

[MTL4]

I've done alot of empirical testing on it against real market data

you may have done your testing on inaccurate array data. You can forget about the arrays from Feb. 2019  - August 2019 on ask-socrates.com.  I'm sure they were completely faulty during that time.

This is part of the problem.  Even if the Socrates system did work, the roll out was quite unprofessional because the subscribers were basically the guinea pigs.  Then later if someone says they traded with the system you get some legal nonsense stating the system if for educational purposes only.  It's like Telsa's auto pilot that requires 2 hands on the wheel at all times (hint: that's not really auto pilot).

[Alex-11]

I've done alot of empirical testing on it against real market data

you may have done your testing on inaccurate array data. You can forget about the arrays from Feb. 2019  - August 2019 on ask-socrates.com.  I'm sure they were completely faulty during that time.

This is part of the problem.  Even if the Socrates system did work, the roll out was quite unprofessional because the subscribers were basically the guinea pigs.

Well, there was this banner on ask-socrates.com that they are still migrating the data and there may be issues. So there was and still is a warning on the system.  I think MA just wanted to get the system released and grant access to the reversals. I don't want to discuss that things went wrong with the release of SOC Pro. This I've mentioned already numerous times. I just wanted to say that the arrays didn't make any sense before, but they do now. So your tests have been done based on inaccurate data (which was of course not your fault).  I'm also not talking about whether the arrays are good or not. That is a different question.

[AnonymousCoder]

Please try to understand the following:

The forecast array has 12 columns. For the sake of argument, if each column had a turning point, what would the predictive value of it?

Zero.

If on the other hand, a forecast array had only a single turning point in it, then that would be something. But it would still be of a low value because it can be interpreted as both a low or a high.

The fact is that forecast arrays typically have more than one turning point, in fact many turning points, so the predictive value is low due to the resulting ambiguity.

I totally agree with you, from what I've had explained thus far (both at a WEC and from other supposed gurus on the subject) of MA's array rules and how to use them those arrays don't have any value as is IMHO. Everyone says only the reversals are for trading (even more useless IMHO). What I am saying is that if you disregard all that and just look at the long-term row there may be some accuracy to whatever he's using to create it. I've done alot of empirical testing on it against real market data and there appears to be some weak correlation but that's all I can postulate at this point. Could it all be just circumstance, sure but the reverse could be true as well. It's not after the fact because that array was around well before being used so we can at least rule that out.

Do we have any idea how he actually creates the arrays?

The Case for Cycles by Edward R Dewey

Then this bullshit:

Trading Cycle

Composite: The Composite model is the aggregate of all of the computer models, which provides a good perspective of important dates ahead. Each separate model from empirical to volatility is taken as a sum and reflected in this model.

Note that you are interpreting a signal that contains this Trading Cycle bullshit "model".

I wish I could see the code. If that code will ever be made public, that will certainly be the end of Socrates.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.

See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

[trulycoined]

Please try to understand the following:

The forecast array has 12 columns. For the sake of argument, if each column had a turning point, what would the predictive value of it?

Zero.

If on the other hand, a forecast array had only a single turning point in it, then that would be something. But it would still be of a low value because it can be interpreted as both a low or a high.

The fact is that forecast arrays typically have more than one turning point, in fact many turning points, so the predictive value is low due to the resulting ambiguity.

Do we have any idea how he actually creates the arrays?

Full 8-bit, high color:

[555Many]

That's the trouble, you can't do many samples because those arrays aren't available via Socrates......I ran into the same issue back in 2016. Only way to get those are to wait for him to post them online in his blog or take them out of a report.  Find me more current ones and I'll be happy to run tests galore.

The Socrates arrays from the ask-socrates website were not working properly until September, but they are now working since about 3 month.
You can also see in the private blog posts that MA is recently posting only the new arrays and not the old arrays anymore (except the yearly arrays which are not available on ask-socrates.com)

did you make money of reversal trade. does it work, and are you a shill or not. please answer truthfully.

[Alex-11]

did you make money of reversal trade. does it work, and are you a shill or not. please answer truthfully.

at the moment there is no trading strategy I can recommend to you with full confidence. If you are not sure about trading with Socrates, just don't use it for the next 6 to 12 month and check back later here in this forum or even better, in my forum (link in my profile).

[trulycoined]

Please note that Armstrong's theories on how the minor but not major trends are manipulated are just plagiarized from Dow theory, presented by Charles Dow who, in part, created the Dow Jones Industrial Average index.

In addition, anyone who has read a Socrates report knows how it says that an important high/low was made and a move exceeding that is needed to continue- the successive peaks and valleys is also a major part of Dow theory.

Even the idea of movement within 3 timeframe units is part of Dow theory.

Interesting.


I also wonder if MA plagiarised some of what is featured in this book here:

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Economic-Periphery-International-Perspectives-Administration/dp/3319412604


Curiously, the authors of this book (I have a copy) use the specific phrase, but in an earlier paper of theirs:

Phase transition.

Grinin, L. E., & Korotayev, A. V. (2009). Social macroevolution: Growth of the world system integrity and a system of phase transitions.


Not sure if that is standard nomenclature in economics, but if it isn't, then who coined the phrase first?

[AnonymousCoder]

DISINFORMATION: FAKE EVERYTHING

Climate Change & Swiss Alps & Glacier Analysis

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, the data used by the climate change movement only dates back to 1850. Here in Switzerland, they state that the Alps Glacier peaked with Tambora in 1815 and has been retreating ever since. If the last Little Ice Age ended in 1850, the climate should have been warming naturally from that period. It is indeed getting colder with each year since 2015 as you have warned. It seems as though independently they confirm your forecast

First, the reader email is fake as usual, see The Fan Email Confidence Trick.

Second, the claim of the reader email is wrong. However, and this is important, Martin Armstrong does not deny nor does he confirm the message!

Martin Armstrong did NOT forecast the recent cooling. He was actually surprised by it.

See The Myth of the Martin Armstrong Global Cooling Prediction


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.

See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

[s29]

Armstrong, who practically never admits he is wrong on anything, has a nice advice for us:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/economics/the-pursuit-of-knowledge/

Posted Jan 8, 2020 by Martin Armstrong


 

[AnonymousCoder]

Armstrong, who practically never admits he is wrong on anything, has a nice advice for us:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/economics/the-pursuit-of-knowledge/



 

The most disgusting post I have seen for a while.

He is ambiguous as ever:

He can see when his is wrong with his predictions. Then he switches sides and claims he has never been wrong.



Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.

See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

[MTL4]

The most disgusting post I have seen for a while.

He is ambiguous as ever:

He can see when his is wrong with his predictions. Then he switches sides and claims he has never been wrong. 

I'm sure he would just claim that humans are biased but his computer has both sides covered so that's why he doesn't ever admit he's wrong........yes, it's twisted, I know.

[parrisboy]

Memories of Marting Armstrong WEC conference in Philadelphia in December 2011 .

Just Before , Marty was in jail and published interesting papers and analysis written with a pencil and on paper toilet !

Then Marty is released and organizes a conference in December 2011

As I was part of a group of private investors in Paris, one of my friend Pierre organized a trip to attend the conference.

general idea was :

Parisboy is free, he is retired, he has time to go
Parisboy understands , speaks and read english
Parisboy knows almost all about Waves and Cycles then he (we) could benefit fully from such conference

etc

Budget was around 6.000 $ - Fees 2.500 + plane + hotel + visa + ....etc 50 % coming from Pierre

As I am a serious guy , I read ALL papers I had from Armstrong + all those I could put my hands on through the net.

Then I made a synthesis of the dispersed thoughts and methodologies Marty sparsed in his papers.

Moreover I read all the "transition" papers Marty send the participants before the Conference.

I was ready ! summarizing all during the flight. Ready for the examination before the Master.

Arrived at friday evening, met 2 other french guys coming also at their expenses. Excellent dinner in a nearby restaurant from Louisiane.

Skype with Pierre : ready to go.

Next morning - Great breakfast with the other participants. 2 nd Skype : READY

During the morning conference , slight deception Marty talked about all and nothing, general life and politics and economy, summarized his story, his life in jail . We knew already all, having read his papers.

I thought : OK Marty has to vent the pressure, it is his first conference AFTER jail, he has to keep synch with us .

Intermede : nice buffet lunch before the afternoon conference . I WAS READY

we came back into the room .

5 Minutes after having put my ass on my chair , I knew I was fucked, that we were fucked.

We found on the table before each of us a copy of a "methodology " paper we had already received (and read and studied) !

And Marty during 4 hours (14 h / 18 h) just READ above paper with some comments.

On a big screen we could see OLD charts published years ago by him, not one were updated

after the conference 3 rd Skype with Pierre : WE WERE FUCKED ! MAN

nice dinner in the same restaurant

the next day 2 conferences of Marty chit-chatting about Congress, laws, The Economy , Gold, Silver etc - kind of small talk answering questions

very nice dinner again after the evening cocktail.

Nice trip, excellent tourism - visit of the Gettysburg Battlefield, roundtrip around Philadelphia with pictures of the Rocky monument, visit of the Declaration of Independence, visit of the USS New Jersey

I WAS FUCKED

Thanks Marty for the excellent food : lobsters and seafood from Louisiana and the good tourism

For the fun :

I came back from Philadelphia to Paris with soaps, napkins, pencils, letter paper, envelopes all with the printed name of the Westin Hotel where was the Conference to prove my friends I REALLY was in Philadelphia and did not stayed in Paris cashing their money !

Thanks Marty

[DanB1]

Thanks Parisboy.

Currently I'm mostly interested what happens around January 18 ECM.
So far I have been long this market big time and where I would normally haved trimmed some around end of December I decided to see if we would rally into this date.
So far not much is happening but I'll wait and see. Gumbi has send me some information and numbers and I keep a close look at it.

If indeed a big top (for instance going towards 30K in DOW) is created around the ECM with a year long draw down then that is a nice call and I will trade it.
If nothing happens I myself close the book on MA and move on.  

[etoimene]

 ...So far not much is happening ...

Not bad price action right now.

... If indeed a big top (for instance going towards 30K in DOW) is created around the ECM ...

Just enough time to reach such target. I plan to trade it too.

[parrisboy]

Anyway Marty has interesting macro-econonomical concepts and viewpoints !

Plateau Move
Waterfall Event
Phase Transition
Directional Change
Private & Public Wave
Money Flow

and many others even if he borrowed some from others. At least for me he underlined these concepts.

All his papers and books about the history of the Banking system are very interesting

you will NEVER earn a cent trading Marty's Technical Tools because Marty has none available for the average guy like you and me.

Do not forget that Marty in his splendor dealt with central banks , financial institutions, hedge funds etc and limited to 3 attendants for each institutions the participants to his conferences.

The ticket price at the time for attending one of his conference was 10.000 $.

Now, after he spent 9 years in jail, Marty is a leper in the financial world.

Marty to survive now develops a new market : you

[CaymanJack]

Thanks Parisboy.

Currently I'm mostly interested what happens around January 18 ECM.
So far I have been long this market big time and where I would normally haved trimmed some around end of December I decided to see if we would rally into this date.
So far not much is happening but I'll wait and see. Gumbi has send me some information and numbers and I keep a close look at it.

If indeed a big top (for instance going towards 30K in DOW) is created around the ECM with a year long draw down then that is a nice call and I will trade it.
If nothing happens I myself close the book on MA and move on.  

He's actually calling it both ways now. From his private blog, not verbatim, if a low into the ECM, then he would expect a rally thereafter once the 2019 high is exceeded, otherwise a high into the ECM warns of a correction before the break out.

I was subscribed to his basic service which is utterly useless and I've since cancelled after his numerous failed calls.

[AnonymousCoder]

Thanks Parisboy.

Currently I'm mostly interested what happens around January 18 ECM.
So far I have been long this market big time and where I would normally haved trimmed some around end of December I decided to see if we would rally into this date.
So far not much is happening but I'll wait and see. Gumbi has send me some information and numbers and I keep a close look at it.

If indeed a big top (for instance going towards 30K in DOW) is created around the ECM with a year long draw down then that is a nice call and I will trade it.
If nothing happens I myself close the book on MA and move on.

He's actually calling it both ways now. From his private blog, not verbatim, if a low into the ECM, then he would expect a rally thereafter once the 2019 high is exceeded, otherwise a high into the ECM warns of a correction before the break out.

I was subscribed to his basic service which is utterly useless and I've since cancelled after his numerous failed calls.

You are saying that he makes two contradicting calls. Additionally, it is interesting that both are self-fulfilling as well. See A Self-fulfilling Financial Forecast how that works, how he constructs these forecasts.

Worthless.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.

See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.