Martin Armstrong Discussion

[trulycoined]

Hard sell of the 2020 WEC has started:


Traditionally, inverted yield curves take place during recessions and we are in one globally heading into a major low come January 2020.... We are facing a very Dark Financial Storm from which there is no escape. There is no advice being given to so many governments to avoid this crisis and waking up next year to this error will be too late. There will be nothing that can be done to put it all back together and live happily ever after. Welcome to the reality we face. At least this will make for a very interesting WEC.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/future-forecasts/ecm/economic-storm-trump-will-be-blamed-for-because-of-bad-advisers/


Await the predictable hysterics and crescendo of MA's posts as we approach December.

How predictable that the next WEC will be in January 2020. My guess is either Singapore, Germany or London.

2020.05 will come to pass with barely a whimper, but it won't matter by then as MA is long gone with over a million dollars in event attendee money. Cue some loosely related "event" that will indeed be pinned as the Jan 2020 "turning point".


However, let me just caveat this and say one thing:

MA was correct about GBP/USD weakening considerably through 2019. However, he was not the only analyst (if he can be described as that) that saw the inevitable decline in an already well over-valued pound.

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[olegrey]

The DOW elected the bearish reversal of  25518.04 with a closing of 25479.4, a difference of .15%.  I have bought a position in DOG

[MTL4]

The DOW elected the bearish reversal of  25518.04 with a closing of 25479.4, a difference of .15%.  I have bought a position in DOG

That ETF barely moves (vs something like UWPIX), how the heck are you making money on that? (unless you are playing options)
Also my hourly volatility chart is showing an overall decline so I'll be curious again to see how this trade works out.

[olegrey]

The DOW elected the bearish reversal of  25518.04 with a closing of 25479.4, a difference of .15%.  I have bought a position in DOG

That ETF barely moves (vs something like UWPIX), how the heck are you making money on that? (unless you are playing options)
Also my hourly volatility chart is showing an overall decline so I'll be curious again to see how this trade works out.

I'm not convinced if Socrates has a use, so I am doing this as a feasibility study of Socrates using a small account.  I plan to use DIA and DOG until I am comfortable with my trading system.  If successful, I plan to start using DDM (2x DOW), UDOW (3x DOW), DXD (-2x DOW), SDOW (-3x DOW) and DIA call and put options.  If you look at my recent post you can see that I did make around 9% using DOG in about week.  Yes, I could have made more, but I don't trust the system yet.

[footlong24seven]

Marty claims he's been running around recently and there's an imminent crisis. I think $DB which hit new lows today is quietly sinking into the abyss.

Thanks to whoever posted the overlays with the forecast arrays - long term they don't seem too bad as predictors but not concrete.

Appreciate the posts on the Soc trade progress also. Thank you for stepping up to the plate and sharing with us what you have so far.

Are the private blogs worth anything? What does he say is generally going on / going to happen?

Keep the board alive, guys!

[DanB1]

The DOW elected the bearish reversal of  25518.04 with a closing of 25479.4, a difference of .15%.  I have bought a position in DOG

That ETF barely moves (vs something like UWPIX), how the heck are you making money on that? (unless you are playing options)
Also my hourly volatility chart is showing an overall decline so I'll be curious again to see how this trade works out.

I'm not convinced if Socrates has a use, so I am doing this as a feasibility study of Socrates using a small account.  I plan to use DIA and DOG until I am comfortable with my trading system.  If successful, I plan to start using DDM (2x DOW), UDOW (3x DOW), DXD (-2x DOW), SDOW (-3x DOW) and DIA call and put options.  If you look at my recent post you can see that I did make around 9% using DOG in about week.  Yes, I could have made more, but I don't trust the system yet.

Years ago I lost a lot of money in reversed ETF's, I now understand the concept, longer term you can not win. That's why so many inverse ETF go to zero eventually.

I've learned that in a down/bear market the way to make the most money is to be long Bonds, Bond proxies, Eurodollars deposits, Gold, etc depending on the situation.
Being short stocks and indexes is difficult because of the volatility. That's why you see that the real smart guys like Druckenmiller go for bond options and make 1-5x their trades in bear markets.

Forget MA and his extreme difficult way to make money using his flawed Socrates system. Nobody can time this market 100%. If MA could why aren't all the big money managers embracing his system?

[slaman29]

Years ago I lost a lot of money in reversed ETF's, I now understand the concept, longer term you can not win. That's why so many inverse ETF go to zero eventually.

I've learned that in a down/bear market the way to make the most money is to be long Bonds, Bond proxies, Eurodollars deposits, Gold, etc depending on the situation.
Being short stocks and indexes is difficult because of the volatility. That's why you see that the real smart guys like Druckenmiller go for bond options and make 1-5x their trades in bear markets.

Forget MA and his extreme difficult way to make money using his flawed Socrates system. Nobody can time this market 100%. If MA could why aren't all the big money managers embracing his system?

Long term, in down/bear market you definitely want to take some dipping into bursting bubbles as well, especially like in capital cities, regarding real estate, not so much commercial but residential. If the bubbles bursts more than 30% especially then you know you got a good buy.

Practically saying, all the good guys making good money won't share their systems. Simple as that.

[MA_talk]

Just came back from my 2-week vacation.  So any golden trading rules based upon Socrates found so far?

Or was those just one-time wonder/luck?

Did Armstrong find any more ways to generate free energy for the world, and defeats all the scientific principles using his magic?

[olegrey]

Didn't work out so great this time.  Sold DOG today at 54.13 for a 2.7% loss. I did notice that there may have been a doji candle on the 15th on the DOW but on DOG there was definitely a doji, so I've learned that I have to pay attention to if there is a doji on the ETF as well as the underlying

Total successful elected reversals: 3
Total failed elected reversals: 2
Total gain: 10.43%
Total loss: 4.17%
Total Profit: 6.26%

[AnonymousCoder]

Didn't work out so great this time. Sold DOG today at 54.13 for a 2.7% loss. I did notice that there may have been a doji candle on the 15th on the DOW but on DOG there was definitely a doji, so I've learned that I have to pay attention to if there is a doji on the ETF as well as the underlying

Total successful elected reversals: 3
Total failed elected reversals: 2
Total gain: 10.43%
Total loss: 4.17%
Total Profit: 6.26%

3 samples since July 31, 3 weeks. It looks it might be too hard to get enough observations to see persistent performance. With enough samples, say a few hundred (I have found randomness with thousands of samples). The problem is one cannot learn anything from randomness. So whether this randomness produces a doji or not you cannot blame yourself for not considering it.

Real trading goes like this: For example, to stay relevant, you short PCG like I did because PCG is bankrupt and has been in the news for weeks. Then you make 30% within a few days even without leverage. Sure, this is not a track record and I don't know yet what to do next. That is the problem. Where to get the ideas from. But at least this one is based on some kind of logic. That is what I used. Rather than looking at this Socrates contraption and biting fingernails. I am glad I am not looking at that thing any more.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

[jbreher]

There have been tried and tested methods that work, and the best one is, 'follow the trend'.

Or, you could, you know -- just hear me out here -- you could identify a new thing with huge asymmetric upside (::cough:: Bitcoin ::cough:: ), put everything you can afford to lose into that, and hodl on through all ups and downs until you emerge with life-changing money, still appreciating as fast as you can spend it.

[MTL4]

Real trading goes like this: For example, to stay relevant, you short PCG like I did because PCG is bankrupt and has been in the news for weeks. Then you make 30% within a few days even without leverage. Sure, this is not a track record and I don't know yet what to do next. That is the problem. Where to get the ideas from. But at least this one is based on some kind of logic. That is what I used. Rather than looking at this Socrates contraption and biting fingernails. I am glad I am not looking at that thing any more.

PCG was a great short when it broke support at 21, nice trade to ride it down to the low.  That had some pretty violent drops so look for it to likely bounce back towards 17 (support/resistance) before possibly falling further.

Olegrey, thanks for trying at least. The doji would be a matter of hindsight bias and also a matter of introducing something that was not part of the system. If we go back and try to find things that would have prevented a loss or made a gain, it would be called 'optimization' in systems talk. It basically means you change the system from past performance to have it 'fit' to have good results. Optimization doesn't work, unfortunately. This is the #1 method that the online snake oil sellers use to sell their 'system that returned X% in the past Y years! Verified!' Now, if you had some technical basis and a set of rules to go by that work to tell you when it works and when it won't, that would be different. There have been tried and tested methods that work, and the best one is, 'follow the trend'.

This ^^^^^  If your rules don't allow you to make a good trade at the time without the benefit of hindsight then it's not a valid trading system (ie time to go back to the drawing board)

[olegrey]

Real trading goes like this: For example, to stay relevant, you short PCG like I did because PCG is bankrupt and has been in the news for weeks. Then you make 30% within a few days even without leverage. Sure, this is not a track record and I don't know yet what to do next. That is the problem. Where to get the ideas from. But at least this one is based on some kind of logic. That is what I used. Rather than looking at this Socrates contraption and biting fingernails. I am glad I am not looking at that thing any more.

PCG was a great short when it broke support at 21, nice trade to ride it down to the low.  That had some pretty violent drops so look for it to likely bounce back towards 17 (support/resistance) before possibly falling further.

Olegrey, thanks for trying at least. The doji would be a matter of hindsight bias and also a matter of introducing something that was not part of the system. If we go back and try to find things that would have prevented a loss or made a gain, it would be called 'optimization' in systems talk. It basically means you change the system from past performance to have it 'fit' to have good results. Optimization doesn't work, unfortunately. This is the #1 method that the online snake oil sellers use to sell their 'system that returned X% in the past Y years! Verified!' Now, if you had some technical basis and a set of rules to go by that work to tell you when it works and when it won't, that would be different. There have been tried and tested methods that work, and the best one is, 'follow the trend'.

This ^^^^^  If your rules don't allow you to make a good trade at the time without the benefit of hindsight then it's not a valid trading system (ie time to go back to the drawing board)

It's in the rules to sell on the first day of it's a doji, it was kinda of one on the DOW but definitely a doji on the etf.  So I think it's valid to add that

[iuc]

Would anyone care to share what Martin Armstrong's private blog say about gold at the moment? I think his macro views are worth listening to, but Socrates is a waste of time and money.

[AnonymousCoder]

Would anyone care to share what Martin Armstrong's private blog say about gold at the moment? I think his macro views are worth listening to, but Socrates is a waste of time and money.

I don't want to spoil the party - perhaps there are any news in that category we should be listening to.

However, you might want to consider the following:

Gold elected the "important" monthly reversal in June. We closed 1,392.08. The Bullish monthly was 1,362.50. (~2,2% above the reversal).
So according to the 1% rule we need to test the 1,362.5 reversal within 3 time frames (3 months, so July, August or September).

At the moment gold is testing 1,500 so it would need to come down ~9%.
I'm hoping it will test 1,362.5 as I would like to buy more but I think it's not reachable.

And right to the point, his macro views ended up creating bad losses for a few of his followers:

Quarterly Superposition Event in Gold 2015
https://armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com/2019/07/quarterly-superposition-event-in-gold.html

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

[MTL4]

It's in the rules to sell on the first day of it's a doji, it was kinda of one on the DOW but definitely a doji on the etf.  So I think it's valid to add that

Does MA have an actual set of rules listed somewhere?  I ran into this over and over when I was evaluating his Socrates system and it always seemed like someone after the fact would reference another of MA's rules which would have somehow made the trade come out on the right side but yet nobody seemed to be able to make the call beforehand so you could actually trade it.  I'm sure I wasn't the only one that experienced this issue.

[AnonymousCoder]

It's in the rules to sell on the first day of it's a doji, it was kinda of one on the DOW but definitely a doji on the etf. So I think it's valid to add that

Does MA have an actual set of rules listed somewhere? I ran into this over and over when I was evaluating his Socrates system and it always seemed like someone after the fact would reference another of MA's rules which would have somehow made the trade come out on the right side but yet nobody seemed to be able to make the call beforehand so you could actually trade it. I'm sure I wasn't the only one that experienced this issue.

https://ask-socrates.com/How-To-Use-Reversal-System

https://www.ask-socrates.com/How-To-Use-Forecasting-Arrays

Ambiguity.

https://www.ask-socrates.com/Content/Files/SOCRATES%20Platform%20-%20Top%20Questions%20and%20Misconceptions%20v1.0%20(June%202019).pdf

A tool used by the con artist. Should be fairly obvious from what has been reported in this blog and here: https://armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com/2019/07/socrates-technical-analysis-prediction.html. For example, nobody can say what the actual trading period for a nominal period is because if in doubt / challenged, as an excuse, the forecast arrays on multiple levels are consulted in hindsight. The forecast arrays that are ambiguous in their own space, in their own right, so they will always fit. If one time frame does not fit, then another will do. I think we are going round in circles, and Martin Armstrong is laughing his head off because we are spending so much energy on his contraption, the thing that he cannot get to work for himself and then sells it to the people who spend extra money to go to his WEC conferences hoping someone will explain the mysteries to them there. It is a scam. People who want to be deceived, they will get what they want. All the evidence that has been presented here is still not enough for them. They want to experience this themselves, they think they can find a way to get it to work for them like the perpetual motion scooter from the scooter man. See https://armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com/2019/07/armstrongs-ignorance-on-perpetual.html . Martin Armstrong preys on the people who think they can get a free lunch and he sells it to them, the free lunch for a fee. As simple as that.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

[luckyplate]

Would anyone care to share what Martin Armstrong's private blog say about gold at the moment? I think his macro views are worth listening to, but Socrates is a waste of time and money.

A new high possible into Sept .the maximum Target seems to be at 1580 .
Right now it might correct down or consolidated for 1 or 2 weeks.
But I think the gold stock tend to sync with the Dow during period of uncertainty.

[AnonymousCoder]

Would anyone care to share what Martin Armstrong's private blog say about gold at the moment? I think his macro views are worth listening to, but Socrates is a waste of time and money.

Regarding the macro view, the rear mirror perspective should be shown more often. Here it is. Directly from the private blog. You check his macro view and tell me what its value was from that perspective:

Gold for the Close of June 2019
Monday, 01 July 2019
By: Marty Armstrong
Gold finished below the 1417 number which we expected would happen since the rally was still premature. Nevertheless, the fact that it closed well above 1362.50 suggests that we should move back to retest this now as support.
According to our sources, the central banks which have been buying gold are all on the opposite side of the political table from the US and Europe. It appears that they have been buying gold NOT because they think this is a bull market, but out of fear that we are headed into a geopolitical conflict. Trump does not want to commit troops to war, but the neocons do! They will support either Republican or Democrat as long as they get to start wars in the Middle East.
From a purely technical perspective, the major support will now lie at 1275. Our Energy model is a slightly positive warning that the rally has NOT been one of broad support to date.


From what I understand, the only assertive statement is that we should re-test support. Did we re-test it? No. We never re-tested anything since that time. So it is all wrong.

And BTW there should not be any distinction between Socrates and Martin Armstrong, because Martin Armstrong said that Socrates is a clone of himself:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/ai-computers/the-most-valuable-lesson-we-can-teach-our-children-is-how-to-think-not-what-to-think/


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

[Alex-11]

And BTW there should not be any distinction between Socrates and Martin Armstrong, because Martin Armstrong said that Socrates is a clone of himself:

Socrates is a Software as a Service (SaaS) platform. If Armstrong makes mistakes while reading what Socrates is writing, then it's not Socrates fault. Also Armstrong may simply be too busy to provide timely and extensive updates.
So it is definitely not a 100% clone. I don't get how you can take such a statement literally.