Martin Armstrong Discussion

[AnonymousCoder]

Martin Armstrong - Gold Bear? ?
https://busy.org/@traxo/martin-armstrong-gold-bear

Note I updated the blog with another Martin's post, because one of the comments referenced that post: ?
Jul 23, 2015 Gold https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/gold-it-aint-over-until-the-fat-lady-sings/
He also bolded the following quote

"Investors are running out of reasons to own gold.

All this talk on your blog about your impressions and interpretations ?from reading his public blog and whether Armstrong was bullish or bearish is completely meaningless because you only trade on reversals that is the only thing that can tell you the direction.

So if anyone was trading on anything other than the reversals was bound and deserved to lose because this has been repeated by Armstrong for decades, to only trade the numbers.

Now I am telling you that unlike what you are trying to tell us, we have:

Fact number 1)

The only thing that reversals FAIL TO DO do it show direction.

And here is the proof:

If reversals would show direction, then the same would apply to any other trend following strategy e.g. stop-loss order based.

Obviously that is not true otherwise we would all be rich.

A set of reversals is no more than a fairly stupid trend following device based on 4 orders with stop-loss orders.

Again, another real market situation proof, and yes, it is Gold again:

End of year 2015 we elected a bearish quarterly reversal, right? Total failure. The market rallied. So you would need to trade against this reversal to prove that reversals show the direction. How stupid is that? According to your non-sensical statements, this should not be possible.

And before you refer to other signals, no my friend, this was the only signal available to Armstrong's clients at the time.

And if in fact there was any other bullish signal as you might wish to claim, that would be bullshit once again because nobody, including Armstrong himself, had such a signal. Otherwise, Armstrong would have sent a bullish message not bearish blog posts.



Well, my friend, you are trying to tell us that all these dozens or even hundreds of people in this blog and elsewhere, those who have the facts and disagree with you, are wrong, and you are right. Nobody else except perhaps one or two other close Martin Armstrong associates agree with you - that is fact number 2).

Now you have this thing that all others are wrong and you are the only one who is right. Why? Because it is you, you, you, and nobody else is like that. Very much like Martin Armstrong I must say.



Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

[Gumbi]

AnonymousCoder
"End of year 2015 we elected a bearish quarterly reversal, right? Total failure. The market rallied."

Since its a quarterly bearish reversal it is a long term sell signal so the market can rally in the short term and that is exactly what happened...

[Traxo]

Since its a quarterly bearish reversal it is a long term sell signal so the market can rally in the short term and that is exactly what happened...

What a nonsense! You can't even margin trade, AND you can't know WHEN you will profit of that signal then (and apparently not even how much profit you expect). Thus you are back to square one. Can you define "short-term" and "long-term"?  

Again I ask you to provide clear terminology and quotations when trying to refute something. Anything else is waste of bandwidth and time.

[Gumbi]

Since its a quarterly bearish reversal it is a long term sell signal so the market can rally in the short term and that is exactly what happened...

What a nonsense! You can't even margin trade, AND you can't know WHEN you will profit of that signal then (and apparently not even how much profit you expect). Thus you are back to square one. Can you define "short-term" and "long-term"?  

Again I ask you to provide clear terminology and quotations when trying to refute something. Anything else is waste of bandwidth and time.

"The election of a Reversal normally indicates that the expected high or low that should unfold could take place in as short a time span as 1 to 3 units of time, be it daily, weekly, monthly or quarterly. Therefore, a low might develop the very next day following the election of a Daily Bearish Reversal or within the next few days. The same is true for all price activity levels."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/the-princeton-models-and-methodologies-a-users-guide/system/

[Traxo]

expected [...] should [...] normally [...] might develop [...] or

THAT IS AMBIGUOUS WHICH IS THE WHOLE POINT.

You are back to square one.
Laughable to say the least.

Again, I invite you to present clear statements.

[Gumbi]

expected [...] should [...] normally [...] might develop [...] or

THAT IS AMBIGUOUS WHICH IS THE WHOLE POINT.

You are back to square one.
Laughable to say the least.

Again, I invite you to present clear statements.

what is laughable is you think there can be absolute certainty in any trade you make. No investment/trade you will ever make can be 100% certain.

[AnonymousCoder]

Since its a quarterly bearish reversal it is a long term sell signal so the market can rally in the short term and that is exactly what happened...

What a nonsense! You can't even margin trade, AND you can't know WHEN you will profit of that signal then (and apparently not even how much profit you expect). Thus you are back to square one. Can you define "short-term" and "long-term"? ?

Again I ask you to provide clear terminology and quotations when trying to refute something. Anything else is waste of bandwidth and time.

"The election of a Reversal normally indicates that the expected high or low that should unfold could take place in as short a time span as 1 to 3 units of time, be it daily, weekly, monthly or quarterly. Therefore, a low might develop the very next day following the election of a Daily Bearish Reversal or within the next few days. The same is true for all price activity levels."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/the-princeton-models-and-methodologies-a-users-guide/system/

Qarterly reversal time unit is one quarter. Gold rallied before the quarter was over and no other signal in the opposite direction was available to indicate change of direction. Simple failure black and white. You are talking rubbish, exposing the fraud


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

[Gumbi]

AnonymousCoder
"Quarterly reversal time unit is one quarter."


So a monthly reversal time unit is one month? 

[AnonymousCoder]

AnonymousCoder
"Quarterly reversal time unit is one quarter."


So a monthly reversal time unit is one month? ?

Yes. What kind of rubbish are you talking about? Where was the monthly bullish reversal at the end of 2015?



Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

[AnonymousCoder]

The interesting part of Gumbi's meaningless posts is that he is filling search engine space - the more rubbish he posts, the more people will find my advertisements for

armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com

Which is exactly what we want. So Gumbi. please keep posting senseless rubbish defending Martin Armstrong's fraud.



Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

[Gumbi]

AnonymousCoder"Quarterly reversal time unit is one quarter. Gold rallied before the quarter was over and no other signal in the opposite direction was available to indicate change of direction.

The time span is 1 to 3 units in time so the quarterly bearish reversal had 1 to 3 quarters before time was up.

Armstrong wrote on his private blog on the first of March our quarterly level of the model generated a bullish reversal at the end of the year reversing its short position and going long. This also signaled that gold would rally from the $1060 area and should test the next bullish reversal at the $1347 level."

Not sure if you are aware or not but you are losing this discussion.  

[AnonymousCoder]

AnonymousCoder"Quarterly reversal time unit is one quarter. Gold rallied before the quarter was over and no other signal in the opposite direction was available to indicate change of direction.

The time span is 1 to 3 units in time so the quarterly bearish reversal had 1 to 3 quarters before time was up.

Armstrong wrote on his private blog on the first of March our quarterly level of the model generated a bullish reversal at the end of the year reversing its short position and going long. This also signaled that gold would rally from the $1060 area and should test the next bullish reversal at the $1347 level."

Not sure if you are aware or not but you are losing this discussion.

Here we go. You are providing the proof of my assertion yourself!

HINDSIGHT, FRAUD. THIS HINDSIGHT MESSAGE IS MISREPRESENTATION OF PERFORMANCE, PURE FRAUD!

I love it.

Here you are saying, and I know you are speaking for Martin Armstrong, that


HE HAD THIS INFORMATION, THIS BULLISH SIGNAL AT THE END OF THE YEAR BUT AT THE SAME TIME FAILED TO TELL HIS CLIENTS ?? IN FACT HE SENT THE OPPOSITE SIGNAL TO HIS CLIENTS AT THE TIME!

IF HE KNEW, AND LET'S ASSUME WHAT YOU SAY IS TRUE THEN HE WOULD HAVE BEEN TRADING AGAINST HIS CLIENTS BECAUSE HE PUBLISHED THIS SIGNAL ONLY THREE MONTHS LATER.

You are not worth the respect of a single honest being on earth! You are a fraud!




Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.
.

[Gumbi]

How do you know he failed to tell his clients? did you purchase the gold report in 2015? and include the many gold updates provided to clients in your findings? And even if he got this one trade wrong compared to the countless others he got right does that make him a fraud? is this really your argument?

You are simply a ignorant fool who wants to argue one trade... there have been countless trades provided by Armstrong and you can only speak of one trade, your bias is a disgrace.

[AnonymousCoder]

AnonymousCoder"Quarterly reversal time unit is one quarter. Gold rallied before the quarter was over and no other signal in the opposite direction was available to indicate change of direction.

The time span is 1 to 3 units in time so the quarterly bearish reversal had 1 to 3 quarters before time was up.

Armstrong wrote on his private blog on the first of March our quarterly level of the model generated a bullish reversal at the end of the year reversing its short position and going long. This also signaled that gold would rally from the $1060 area and should test the next bullish reversal at the $1347 level."

Not sure if you are aware or not but you are losing this discussion.

Here we go. You are providing the proof of my assertion yourself!

HINDSIGHT, FRAUD. THIS HINDSIGHT MESSAGE IS MISREPRESENTATION OF PERFORMANCE, PURE FRAUD!

I love it.

Here you are saying, and I know you are speaking for Martin Armstrong, that


HE HAD THIS INFORMATION, THIS BULLISH SIGNAL AT THE END OF THE YEAR BUT AT THE SAME TIME FAILED TO TELL HIS CLIENTS ?? IN FACT HE SENT THE OPPOSITE SIGNAL TO HIS CLIENTS AT THE TIME!

IF HE KNEW, AND LET'S ASSUME WHAT YOU SAY IS TRUE THEN HE WOULD HAVE BEEN TRADING AGAINST HIS CLIENTS BECAUSE HE PUBLISHED THIS SIGNAL ONLY THREE MONTHS LATER.

You are not worth the respect of a single honest being on earth! You are a fraud!


AND YES, I HAVE ALL THE REPORTS. HOW COULD I OTHERWISE QUOTE THEM? I HAVE EVERYTHING!

MORE IMPORTANTLY, ALL OTHER PEOPLE WHO LOST, THEY HAVE EVERYTHING AS WELL.



Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

[Gumbi]

Posted Jul 23, 2015 by Martin Armstrong
Gold – It Ain’t Over Until the Fat Lady Sings
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/gold-it-aint-over-until-the-fat-lady-sings/
"Yes, the Benchmarks are the targets for it is never just PRICE; it must also be TIME. These two objectives must be reached, and they are in that report. So do we have the low yet? No. To create the low, the MAJORITY must turn bearish. Their target forecasts will be in the $600–$700 level. The key Weekly Bearish Reversals are 1084 and 1075, followed by 1042 and 1026. We have four Weekly Bearish Reversals providing support before the break at $1,000."


Posted Nov 16, 2015 by Martin Armstrong
Gold in the Wake of Paris
"Although gold made a knee-jerk reaction rally to 1097, at the time of this writing it has fallen back to 1087. We elected one Weekly Bearish at 1084; from the last high, we generated a few more in the 1079 to 1071 area, followed by 1040 and 1026. It is between 1026 and a small gap down to 983, followed by 934 and 885. The horizontal lines are the reversals – red for bearish and green for bullish. There are clusters forming above (resistance) and below (support)."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/gold-in-the-wake-of-paris/


Here is all the evidence that completely destroys your argument you have no clue what you are doing that is the problem... I wonder how they lost anything because we held the key reversals which the market needed to close below to imply a move under $1000 "We have four Weekly Bearish Reversals providing support before the break at $1,000."

[Gumbi]

hahahaha he cannot respond to the irrefutable evidence provided

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/gold-it-aint-over-until-the-fat-lady-sings/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/gold-in-the-wake-of-paris/

[AnonymousCoder]

In this case, he is digging himself into a deeper hole by providing even more BEARISH signals. So it is meaningless.


Whatever smokescreen Gumbi is coming up with now, he gets this reply. I know he just wants this message to go away but I am not going to do him the favor. I am just not taking his baits for more nonsense any more. I have an obligation to spread the message for the honest people, and as painful as it is for me, I am going to persevere until this guy shuts up. So he is warned. The honest people have all the facts on their side.

AnonymousCoder"Quarterly reversal time unit is one quarter. Gold rallied before the quarter was over and no other signal in the opposite direction was available to indicate change of direction.

The time span is 1 to 3 units in time so the quarterly bearish reversal had 1 to 3 quarters before time was up.

Armstrong wrote on his private blog on the first of March our quarterly level of the model generated a bullish reversal at the end of the year reversing its short position and going long. This also signaled that gold would rally from the $1060 area and should test the next bullish reversal at the $1347 level."

Not sure if you are aware or not but you are losing this discussion.

Here we go. You are providing the proof of my assertion yourself!

HINDSIGHT, FRAUD. THIS HINDSIGHT MESSAGE IS MISREPRESENTATION OF PERFORMANCE, PURE FRAUD!

I love it.

Here you are saying, and I know you are speaking for Martin Armstrong, that


HE HAD THIS INFORMATION, THIS BULLISH SIGNAL AT THE END OF THE YEAR BUT AT THE SAME TIME FAILED TO TELL HIS CLIENTS? IN FACT HE SENT THE OPPOSITE SIGNAL TO HIS CLIENTS AT THE TIME!

IF HE KNEW, AND LET'S ASSUME WHAT YOU SAY IS TRUE THEN HE WOULD HAVE BEEN TRADING AGAINST HIS CLIENTS BECAUSE HE PUBLISHED THIS SIGNAL ONLY THREE MONTHS LATER.

You are not worth the respect of a single honest being on earth! You are a fraud!


AND YES, I HAVE ALL THE REPORTS. HOW COULD I OTHERWISE QUOTE THEM? I HAVE EVERYTHING!

MORE IMPORTANTLY, ALL OTHER PEOPLE WHO LOST, THEY HAVE EVERYTHING AS WELL.




Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

[Gumbi]

AnonymousCoder"IF HE KNEW, AND LET'S ASSUME WHAT YOU SAY IS TRUE THEN HE WOULD HAVE BEEN TRADING AGAINST HIS CLIENTS BECAUSE HE PUBLISHED THIS SIGNAL ONLY THREE MONTHS LATER."

This is incorrect  we were updated as soon as January 2016 on his public blog. Also notice  on the 25 December, for the year end closing of 2015 Armstrong specifically states that a closing above the yearly bearish reversal is not a buy or sell signal. So anybody who went short in early 2016 was simply not paying attention.


Gold Update
Posted Dec 25, 2015 by Martin Armstrong
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/gold-the-update/

"Gold for year-end has a number of 1044.50 if we close BELOW this next Wednesday on December 31. If we close ABOVE this number, it will not provide a buy signal nor will it avoid a sell signal."


Gold: The Bounce
Posted Jan 29, 2016 by Martin Armstrong
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/gold-the-bounce-3/

"we have a turning point in February that can be a high moving into the next benchmark target. A closing for January below the 1103 level will warn that there is inherent weakness still lingering within this market. Next month, watch the 1097 level for that is key support. Break that, and we are looking into a low into the second benchmark."


Gold on Track for the Mid-Benchmark Rally
Posted Feb 3, 2016 by Martin Armstrong
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/gold-on-track-for-the-mid-benchmark-rally/

"Gold is slowly and begrudgingly moving to test the key resistance. We need a weekly closing ABOVE 1143 to push higher."

Gold: Here We Go Again?
Posted Feb 11, 2016 by Martin Armstrong
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/gold-here-we-go-again/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/gold-just-follow-the-numbers/

"When it closed ABOVE our year-end number of 1044, I stated it was not as weak as it appeared. It then started to elect ONLY the Bullish Reversals, not Bearish. "
"Just follow the numbers. They cut through all opinions."

Gold Update: February 16, 2016 by Martin Armstrong
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/gold-update-february-16th-2016/

"Gold fell back to 1191 and then rallied back to the 1216 area. Gold appears to be setting up to extend the counter-trend reaction into the first week of March."

[Traxo]

And even if he got this one trade wrong compared to the countless others he got right does that make him a fraud? is this really your argument?

Not one trade, one asset - gold.
He was bearish on multiple bottom (low) occasions, thus his readers executed multiple different trades over the years.

This is incorrect  we were updated as soon as January 2016 on his public blog. Also notice  on the 25 December, for the year end closing of 2015 Armstrong specifically states that a closing above the yearly bearish reversal is not a buy or sell signal. So anybody who went short in early 2016 was simply not paying attention.

You were not updated as soon as January 2016 on his public blog. Impossible, or contradicting at least:  

Feb 12, 2016      < -------- NOTICE THE DATE

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong. Are you calling this rally in gold a false move? What does it take to get you bullish? Will you ever be bullish?
ANSWER: When all markets line up and display that there is a trend in motion, which is then definitive, I will clearly state so.

Implying that he did NOT CLEARLY state so before that February 2016 blog.  

Again, find me where he was clearly bullish like we found where he was clearly bearish, enough fairytales.

This circle-running is tiresome. Heck, readers have eyes. I will stop responding to your nonsense until you provide something clear.
Any feedback from others is still appreciated.

[AnonymousCoder]

Gumbi, too late. Message in Feb 2016 with Gold at $1200 is too late. The fact is you claim the system went long end of 2015 while any bullish signal is months later.

Whatever smokescreen Gumbi is coming up with now, he gets this reply. I know he just wants this message to go away but I am not going to do him the favor. I am just not taking his baits for more nonsense any more. I have an obligation to spread the message for the honest people, and as painful as it is for me, I am going to persevere until this guy shuts up. So he is warned. The honest people have all the facts on their side.

AnonymousCoder"Quarterly reversal time unit is one quarter. Gold rallied before the quarter was over and no other signal in the opposite direction was available to indicate change of direction.

The time span is 1 to 3 units in time so the quarterly bearish reversal had 1 to 3 quarters before time was up.

Armstrong wrote on his private blog on the first of March our quarterly level of the model generated a bullish reversal at the end of the year reversing its short position and going long. This also signaled that gold would rally from the $1060 area and should test the next bullish reversal at the $1347 level."

Not sure if you are aware or not but you are losing this discussion.

Here we go. You are providing the proof of my assertion yourself!

HINDSIGHT, FRAUD. THIS HINDSIGHT MESSAGE IS MISREPRESENTATION OF PERFORMANCE, PURE FRAUD!

I love it.

Here you are saying, and I know you are speaking for Martin Armstrong, that


HE HAD THIS INFORMATION, THIS BULLISH SIGNAL AT THE END OF THE YEAR BUT AT THE SAME TIME FAILED TO TELL HIS CLIENTS? IN FACT HE SENT THE OPPOSITE SIGNAL TO HIS CLIENTS AT THE TIME!

IF HE KNEW, AND LET'S ASSUME WHAT YOU SAY IS TRUE THEN HE WOULD HAVE BEEN TRADING AGAINST HIS CLIENTS BECAUSE HE PUBLISHED THIS SIGNAL ONLY THREE MONTHS LATER.

You are not worth the respect of a single honest being on earth! You are a fraud!


AND YES, I HAVE ALL THE REPORTS. HOW COULD I OTHERWISE QUOTE THEM? I HAVE EVERYTHING!

MORE IMPORTANTLY, ALL OTHER PEOPLE WHO LOST, THEY HAVE EVERYTHING AS WELL.




Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.