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Author Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion  (Read 615931 times)
bikefront
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July 05, 2019, 03:44:41 PM
 #5821

Opened a large natural gas short here at 2.442
And closed. God, that was the biggest position I can remember opening in a long while. Added ten percent to the account in a single trade. Nerve wracking.
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bikefront
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July 05, 2019, 04:36:38 PM
 #5822

You are absolutely right. NatGas went lower and actually hit my minimum target of 2.40- but I just couldn't hold through to get there, although I was in profit. Gotta learn from Mr. Livermore... Had I held, it would have been more than double the profit. I have been burned by these types of trades, although I saw my mistakes- in hindsight of course. I think I am done for today. Also missed some nice setups on equities, but made small amounts here and there on nasdaq futures- volatility is great for directional trading.
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July 05, 2019, 04:39:18 PM
 #5823

Best traders I know usually leave something on the table in exchange for locking in profits, I'd say job well done.
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July 05, 2019, 04:44:44 PM
 #5824

Thanks. I actually posted my trades and strategies on reddit but my methods weren't understood at all on there, and so I just trolled for a while and then deleted my account. Too time consuming. Have done really well these past few months.
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July 05, 2019, 05:14:04 PM
 #5825

Yes. I was honestly impressed at first by Armstrong because I had started following him after hearing of him by chance. Then the '18 January crash happened. That first impression had made a strong mark and thus I had defended Armstrong as much as I did. But then the usual losing calls that he claimed as winners, left field excuses, etc etc kicked in and my account couldn't handle it. Re-learned trading from scratch and never looked back.
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July 05, 2019, 05:35:38 PM
 #5826

Yeah I think it'd be nice to have a small chat where we could discuss trading. I'm in my 20s so my experience is very limited, but I have learned in a year what It'd take most to know in 5- I do pretty much nothing but study markets in my free time.

And yeah whenever I see the price return, I think 'good thing I sold'- but it did go to the minimum target first, which bothers me. But all trades will be ones of regret, just part of the game.
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July 05, 2019, 05:47:16 PM
 #5827

I trade 'first touch' almost exclusively. Perhaps this is similar to your idea that the start can get the most- the price points get hit and so the supply/demand point gets exhausted and then there becomes a greater risk of a break. Also how price points on the long timeframe happen to match up to the shorter term movement. Somewhat like multitimeframe analysis. Then trading only the first intraday touch on the major levels depending on if it gapped above or below a point which would determine it to be support or resistance for the day. Combined with Volume Spread analysis, and alignments on indexes, its a a fairly old school thing. I just think that old strategies that have worked for hundreds of years should work today, as there is 'nothing new under the sun'.

I was thinking of taking profit but I'd like to grow the account- money is used occasionally from there, however.
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July 05, 2019, 07:04:50 PM
 #5828

Yes. I was honestly impressed at first by Armstrong because I had started following him after hearing of him by chance. Then the '18 January crash happened. That first impression had made a strong mark and thus I had defended Armstrong as much as I did. But then the usual losing calls that he claimed as winners, left field excuses, etc etc kicked in and my account couldn't handle it. Re-learned trading from scratch and never looked back.

Yeah I think it'd be nice to have a small chat where we could discuss trading. I'm in my 20s so my experience is very limited, but I have learned in a year what It'd take most to know in 5- I do pretty much nothing but study markets in my free time.

And yeah whenever I see the price return, I think 'good thing I sold'- but it did go to the minimum target first, which bothers me. But all trades will be ones of regret, just part of the game.

I can only imagine how many times others have gone through this exact same scenario (myself included).  Not sure why MA's good at calling the crashes but it's those sorts of calls that still hold my attention to this day.  Overall it has caused me to be a better trader (through self reliance) but it definitely sucked to go through when it hits you in the wallet via lost opportunity (I lost a solid 3x-5x by sitting out that move).  Forced me to really buckle down, study the markets intensely and hone my skills so that's what I've been doing for a few years now.  

I'm game for an offline chat if folks are so inclined.
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July 05, 2019, 08:18:08 PM
 #5829


It wasn't pretty. I got out break even. But at least it was simple. If anything this single observation adds to my own pile of evidence supporting the view that it is almost impossible to predict market movement. Martin Armstrong tries to defeat this - quite unsuccessfully. The difference is that he cheats using various methods that create false evidence showing that he can do it. See:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg51666429#msg51666429

Do you have anymore evidence of these phantom reversals?  Remember our rule to not make conclusions based on singular observations
s29
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July 05, 2019, 08:48:15 PM
 #5830

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/central-banks/rise-in-the-euro-interesting-times-ahead/

Quote
Posted Jun 26, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

This conflict gave a boost to the Euro but the model had been calling for a rally into July

https://i.imgur.com/aCnu6MG.png

Not good, not terrible, Marty Cheesy
Of course, you could argue about what is "into July". The first few trading days, the first week, the second week, the first half etc. The endless "guessing" of mr. Armstrong just never seems to stop.
Typical Armstrong btw: first a rally, then he's starting to take notice at the intermediate top, blogs about it, then it falls. Marty, just give a heads up before a rally unfolds the next time please.
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July 05, 2019, 08:53:50 PM
 #5831

There was that one Canadian guy online here who apparently uses Socrates to trade. https://www.mininginteractive.com/ Does anyone know his performance?


i'm not a trader in any sense.  But I use Armstrong as a macro road map and i'm in the green because of it.
If i'd listened to someone like Jim Rickards who wrote The Death of the Dollar years ago and pushes gold all the time, I'd be in the red for sure.

@Kiwibird, and @over45,

I don't know how many Armstrong followers out there, or how many people are on this forum, but let's just pick a number of 10,000 people, which is probably an under-estimate.

So let's say if you just flip a coin 10,000 times, how many heads do you think you will get?  Well, about 5000.

I can tell you right now, that out of 10,000 people that follow Armstrong, the people who are in green, and who makes quite some profits, will NOT be zero.  In fact, there could be easily 15% of them, or let's say 1500 people.

But making a statement that yes, I'm in green, or that it was good for me, is NOT proving anything at all.

That's just like saying that if you flip coins, you are going to get some heads.


The fundamental problem with Armstrong's stuffs is that he always resorts to cherry-pick the good results.  You need to scrutinize on EVERY SINGLE statement, array, or every metric that Armstrong publishes.

WHY?  Because you need to know whether the model is producing a profit.

If I trade with hindsight, WTF, of course, I know statement #3 out of 100 statements from Armstrong was so correct, and I missed a big profit.  But what about #4 to #100, and #1 and #2?  

You canNOT make any profits from hindsight.  The ONLY way to evaluate statement#101 from Armstrong is to evaluate the profitability of statement #1 to #100, and see if on the average you get a profit.

How else are you going to know whether you should make a trade based on statement#101?


I did my own due diligence, and I have concluded that Armstrong's timing array does NOT work in general.  I will not argue that there are times that his array DID work, but what's most important is whether it works above average to enable you to profit consistently.
MA_talk
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July 05, 2019, 09:01:42 PM
 #5832

....

To me there's no question that this guy is super smart and has learned very good trading instincts but just like anyone he's human and will inject his personal bias at times even if he says it's the computer.  The key is to be able to use it as a reference rather than using it as gospel to trade or you will lose money.  His macro level views are exceptional and I've yet to see anyone else even get close to thinking out of the box like he can.

Armstrong's macro view are "exceptional"Huh  He calls bitcoin to trade lower, and the opposite has happened.  That is just one example of his exceptional macro view.

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July 05, 2019, 09:13:04 PM
Last edit: July 05, 2019, 09:36:27 PM by AnonymousCoder
 #5833

...
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg51666429#msg51666429
Do you have anymore evidence of these phantom reversals?  Remember our rule to not make conclusions based on singular observations

In this particular case, I nee only ONE. yes, ONE. This one:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg51666429#msg51666429

If you go to jail for a crime, do you think you need to commit the crime 100 times otherwise you get the Get Out of Jail Free card https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Get_Out_of_Jail_Free_card ?

 Kiss


Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud
MA_talk
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July 05, 2019, 09:15:47 PM
 #5834

....
Do you have anymore evidence of these phantom reversals?  Remember our rule to not make conclusions based on singular observations

If a lie is CAUGHT, why is there a need to catch another LIE?  A lie is a lie.  It doesn't matter if it is mixed in with 10000 other true statements, or just 1 other true statement.  If it is a lie, it is a lie.

Some other lying examples:

So Armstrong claimed that his office building is about to be completed, when he is just time-sharing offices with others.

So Armstrong claimed that the energy cost alone for running his super-computer system some $6 million dollar, which is almost 100% capacity of Supercomputer Sequoia, contracted to be built for US government.

So Armstrong claimed that ECM date is accurate down to the day, when he himself claimed that the last ECM date was both 10/7/2015, and 10/1/2015.  So how is that accurate down to the day, when he cannot make up his mind?

So why should anyone trust in somebody who lies on such critical things, such as ECM date, especially when that is what Armstrong known for?


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July 05, 2019, 09:59:51 PM
 #5835

DanB1 a  live trade as promised I have entered a short position on the Dow at 26900 looking to exit around the 26550 area

Please allow for private messages to be sent to you
MTL4
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July 05, 2019, 11:42:36 PM
 #5836

DanB1 a  live trade as promised I have entered a short position on the Dow at 26900 looking to exit around the 26550 area

Please allow for private messages to be sent to you

Looks like pretty strong support around the DOW 26750 mark so I'll be curious to see how this trade does.
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July 05, 2019, 11:46:18 PM
 #5837

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/central-banks/rise-in-the-euro-interesting-times-ahead/

Quote
Posted Jun 26, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

This conflict gave a boost to the Euro but the model had been calling for a rally into July

https://i.imgur.com/aCnu6MG.png

Not good, not terrible, Marty Cheesy
Of course, you could argue about what is "into July". The first few trading days, the first week, the second week, the first half etc. The endless "guessing" of mr. Armstrong just never seems to stop.
Typical Armstrong btw: first a rally, then he's starting to take notice at the intermediate top, blogs about it, then it falls. Marty, just give a heads up before a rally unfolds the next time please.
Definition of "into" : used as a function word to indicate entry, introduction, insertion, superposition, or inclusion.  This means the entry into july, or the few weeks preceding July would have a rally, which was indicated by the weekly bullish reversal on 6/7/19 and 6/21/19
olegrey
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July 06, 2019, 12:31:15 AM
 #5838

...
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg51666429#msg51666429
Do you have anymore evidence of these phantom reversals?  Remember our rule to not make conclusions based on singular observations

In this particular case, I nee only ONE. yes, ONE. This one:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg51666429#msg51666429

If you go to jail for a crime, do you think you need to commit the crime 100 times otherwise you get the Get Out of Jail Free card https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Get_Out_of_Jail_Free_card ?

 Kiss


Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud
The socrates user manual on pg. 13 states,

"When a market is very bearish, it can generate a bearish Reversal that is higher than the peak of a reaction
rally and elect it simultaneously with being generated. This takes place normally with the broader long-term
Reversals. It is an indication that it is very bearish. "

I assume the same holds true for bullish reversals.  From the manual it would appear that a bullish reversal that is elected while simultaneously generated would mean the market is very bullish.  This means that the election of this reversal is a strong signal.  By looking at gold from the low on may, I would say that the market is very bullish. Remember that there is a 3 week window to trade an elected reversal so there would be plenty of time to trade this reversal.  That is why I ask for more evidence of these "phantom reversals", to see if they do in fact signal a strong move.  If other "phantom reversals" don't result in a strong move, then I'll start to question  what these reversals actually mean.

Where are you getting your evidence that Armstrong codes these reversals in after the fact? Wouldn't it make more sense that socrates is generating these reversals than Armstrong manually coding them in for over a 1000 markets everyday?
MTL4
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July 06, 2019, 01:16:28 AM
 #5839

Armstrong's macro view are "exceptional"Huh  He calls bitcoin to trade lower, and the opposite has happened.  That is just one example of his exceptional macro view.

Bitcoin is not what I would call a macro view, but yes, I agree though he definitely got bitcoin wrong too.
AnonymousCoder
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July 06, 2019, 01:47:54 AM
Last edit: July 23, 2019, 06:24:37 PM by AnonymousCoder
 #5840

...
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg51666429#msg51666429
Do you have anymore evidence of these phantom reversals?  Remember our rule to not make conclusions based on singular observations

In this particular case, I nee only ONE. yes, ONE. This one:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg51666429#msg51666429

If you go to jail for a crime, do you think you need to commit the crime 100 times otherwise you get the Get Out of Jail Free card https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Get_Out_of_Jail_Free_card ?

 Kiss


Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud
The socrates user manual on pg. 13 states,

"When a market is very bearish, it can generate a bearish Reversal that is higher than the peak of a reaction
rally and elect it simultaneously with being generated. This takes place normally with the broader long-term
Reversals. It is an indication that it is very bearish. "

I assume the same holds true for bullish reversals.  From the manual it would appear that a bullish reversal that is elected while simultaneously generated would mean the market is very bullish.  This means that the election of this reversal is a strong signal.  By looking at gold from the low on may, I would say that the market is very bullish. Remember that there is a 3 week window to trade an elected reversal so there would be plenty of time to trade this reversal.  That is why I ask for more evidence of these "phantom reversals", to see if they do in fact signal a strong move.  If other "phantom reversals" don't result in a strong move, then I'll start to question  what these reversals actually mean.

Where are you getting your evidence that Armstrong codes these reversals in after the fact? Wouldn't it make more sense that Socrates is generating these reversals than Armstrong manually coding them in for over a 1000 markets everyday?

Different case. The case you are referring to would be extremely bullish to the extent that the reversal system is exhausted, meaning no more bullish reversals are available for election. That is the reason why these phantom reversals would need to be generated and elected at the same time.

However, in this case, we have multiple reversals already lined up for election that are just getting pushed higher and are failing.

There is NO case for reversals of the same direction being generated and immediately elected while other reversals of the same direction nearby are ignored.

Would it not occur to you that after so much noise I made about this case https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg51666429#msg51666429 , linking to it in about every 2nd post, people more competent than you would have shredded the case to bits? Do you think that these people are blind and you are the only one who can see?

I think you are over-estimating your skills here. Where is your logical thinking?

You are also very late with this, so late that it appears that you are just looking for something to vent your frustration. I will ignore you for now, so do not expect any more replies from me.

Read about Revision Signals at

https://armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com/2019/07/revision-signals.html

Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud
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