Liquid Synergy Designs Inc. -ASIC mining hardware

[bitcoiner49er]

At what difficulty will k16 boards not cover the electricity they use, at, say, $0.05, $0.10, and $0.15 per KWHr and current bitcoin price?

I am trying to figure out why everyone seems so sure they will never pay for themselves...

-MarkM-

Assuming a 25% diff increase every 10 days until Jan 2014 (this is very optimistic). A 450 MH/s chip will generate ~0.057BTC by then. Adding ONLY 10% increases into the next year, you will only see ~0.076BTC TOTAL by the end of 2014. So - unless you bought the chips at a discount, most of use were 0.086BTC per chip, AND you get free assembly, you will not recover the BTC invested. Plus, we've been averaging OVER 30% the past 4 difficulties; 25% over the last 10.

[pixl8tr]

Does that tell you the actual difficulty at which your electric cost matches what you bring in?

As so far all those calculators have seemed to do is go running off into the future with imaginary increases of difficulty.

There was a thread that showed for some kinds of hardware the actual difficulty where you are only just covering electricity but I don't think it listed the K16 boards.

Of course if you project exponential anything - compound interest, basically - forward it all blows up, duh, malthus figured that out long ago. So what.

-MarkM-

Easy way to get a feel for your ROI,  put in zero difficulty increase and see how much return over the next few months if you had it in hand today.   You will profit ~.33btc by February at the current difficulty. That is including power costs and current exchange rate.  Then, try increasing it a few percent at a time after that.    

[hoss]

I have not updated it yet, but it was nearly spot on for the first 2weeks difficulty. However, considerably off on the dates.  This should give you an idea of what you're up against.

The sheet - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ah7ZJVoobFY7dDRGQk1kdmJmaUJwZENKZUdNejJlWEE&usp=sharing

Edit - power break point is @ $.15/watt - Note BTC reward does NOT include power coasts.

[markm]

So would they have broken even if the chips had arrived on time?

It kind of sounds like they were screwed from the start even if all had happened on time?

-MarkM-

[alfabitcoin]

Klondike is wasted investmant. It sound unfair to me that those who ordered early batches and requested refund still did not get it, while buyers with later batches did get refund. My main concern is of not geting refund due chips shipping and unknown status report from Steamboat.
I have not use of these boards and awaitng chip refund + 25% assambly to minimaze loses. With this Steamboat still have something for this work and can use my parts for what he find suitable. (Iam from EU).

[Crindon]

So would they have broken even if the chips had arrived on time?

It kind of sounds like they were screwed from the start even if all had happened on time?

-MarkM-

The answer is likely not. You would return a lot/most/some of the initial investment, but it would tend toward a 99% max or less, much less, and not 100% of what you would net if you bought BTC only. A lot of us knew this when going in. But, then with further delays, the 99% ceiling kept dropping as the difficulty soared. The difficulty recently went up to over 100 million and there are no signs of it stopping.

[markm]

Yeah but USB block eruptors will more than pay their electricity bills up to something like one and a half billion difficulty, depending on your electricity cost and bitcoin exchange rates.

Are K16s so much less efficient at using electricity than the USB block eruptors?

-MarkM-

[eroxors]

I have not updated it yet, but it was nearly spot on for the first 2weeks difficulty. However, considerably off on the dates.  This should give you an idea of what you're up against.

The sheet - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ah7ZJVoobFY7dDRGQk1kdmJmaUJwZENKZUdNejJlWEE&usp=sharing

Edit - power break point is @ $.15/watt - Note BTC reward does NOT include power coasts.

This looks about right. What now needs to be considered is resale value of the K16 and the cost-of-hardware based on what you will get back when asking for a refund.

So, effectively your cost per chips will be 5% less and your assembly costs are 25% $95 + shipping/accessories.

My power is .08 and I'm in Batch 1. I'm torn between refund and not (probably not.) I'd likely sell the K16s sometime in Nov/Dec. to recoup some costs. If some of the other ASIC projects are delayed, there is potential to make back more than lost to a refund. The FUD is pretty intense right now, I think that competing interests are driving it (KNC, Bitfury, etc.)

[alfabitcoin]

With current diff single klondike if it run at 5ghs would earn 0.70btc a month. 16 asic costed 1.40btc. Last diff changes up 30% per 11 days and that without knc and other shipping. Beside this calc exclude assambly cost, power and other cost. There are simple concerns what I have and I fear that boards wont brake even and you wont be able to sell them even to compansate chip cost what is now on the table. Not to mention that everything must run smoothly 24/7 for months and months.

Only way out as I see it that SB process chip refunds to those who want them and to offer credit for assambly service what would be with gen2 avalons. And he would need to fly personaly (or LSDinc representative) to China to get those chips because nobody would made another mistake.
All those willing to leave assambly cost, will be comited to purchase gen2 avalon with strict terms for mutual sutisfaction.

[professorY]

It sound unfair to me that those who ordered early batches and requested refund still did not get it, while buyers with later batches did get refund.

Not true. I was in Batch #1 and Batch #3 and I got my refund on Saturday.

[alfabitcoin]

It sound unfair to me that those who ordered early batches and requested refund still did not get it, while buyers with later batches did get refund.

Not true. I was in Batch #1 and Batch #3 and I got my refund on Saturday.

Sorry if you misunderstood me, but I meant that those who ordered first, should be in front of others who ordered later. I am in batch 2 and did not get refund. FIFO method. Beside, its unknown of how many did actually requested it and actual SB refund requests from yifu.
I did not meant that nobody from earlier batches did not get refunded  

[ajk]

I think he said that he requested Batch 5 and 6 in his last update, ive got quite a few chips + assembly in batch 5 and am also waiting, im sure he will get to it when he can, my first signed message didnt pass though which was weird since I checked it prior to sending it to him,

[professorY]

It sound unfair to me that those who ordered early batches and requested refund still did not get it, while buyers with later batches did get refund.

Not true. I was in Batch #1 and Batch #3 and I got my refund on Saturday.

Sorry if you misunderstood me, but I meant that those who ordered first, should be in front of others who ordered later. I am in batch 2 and did not get refund. FIFO method. Beside, its unknown of how many did actually requested it and actual SB refund requests from yifu.
I did not meant that nobody from earlier batches did not get refunded  

Ahh, I see. Sorry about the misunderstanding.

[cpengr]

those who ordered first, should be in front of others who ordered later. I am in batch 2 and did not get refund. FIFO method.

alfabitcoin, what you propose would not be fair. Also, if steamboat were to try to implement that...since only those who request refunds are getting them, every time someone new requests a refund, he would be "cutting in line".

Worse, due to the line cutting, that means people in later batches who request refunds would be eligible one minute, but ineligible the next, when someone in an earlier batch requests a refund.

The current implementation is FIFO--based on who requests the refund first, not on who ordered first. And that is fair.

[Rakessh]

At what difficulty will k16 boards not cover the electricity they use, at, say, $0.05, $0.10, and $0.15 per KWHr and current bitcoin price?

I am trying to figure out why everyone seems so sure they will never pay for themselves...

-MarkM-

goto http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/
select terrahash k16 and calculate, then weep

Sweet... with my planned modifications to the board and free electricity I'll ROI in December. (In BTC)

[alfabitcoin]

those who ordered first, should be in front of others who ordered later. I am in batch 2 and did not get refund. FIFO method.

alfabitcoin, what you propose would not be fair. Also, if steamboat were to try to implement that...since only those who request refunds are getting them, every time someone new requests a refund, he would be "cutting in line".

Worse, due to the line cutting, that means people in later batches who request refunds would be eligible one minute, but ineligible the next, when someone in an earlier batch requests a refund.

The current implementation is FIFO--based on who requests the refund first, not on who ordered first. And that is fair.

I see your point and you are partially right and not objective. Still I think I said it wrong e.g. not individual chip FIFO order but batch order queue. Like if somebody in early batch request refund they should get it before of those who requested later batch orders. There is no waiting list because as soon somebody ask for refund it goes filled from batch 1 to the batch 6, regrdless of which batch is actally refunded from yifu.But in the end, it seem that most of who requested refund will get it, unless full batch is filled for refund. And then there might we have a problem.....it is a fact that earlier batches wait the longest and I am concerned of those who will end up with chips instead of refund because refund request fifo method!
There was enough time since refund form to know where majority stands. Do you think its fair of somebody in batch 1 or 2 end up with chips and somebody from batch 6 end up with refund considering waiting period? No, that sound to me unfair, but that is me.
Just to solely relie on refund request FIFO is wrong. Many things can make delay with this, not receiving email, signing problems etc and it does not sound fair just for those reason to buyer lost refund posibility.
I supose you are from batch 5 or 6?   See, everybody has theirown interess and if you were in earlier you might agree with me or vice versa
Like I said, it would be nice some sort of transparency, to inform us who is eglible for refund pending, order status and how many batches will be refunded and how many will ship.
I dont mind waiting a bit longer or who get refund first, but I would like to know is my refund request in processing state or out!

[bigbeninlondon]

Refund or board, I want SOMETHING.  Ughh.

[cardcomm]

It sound unfair to me that those who ordered early batches and requested refund still did not get it, while buyers with later batches did get refund.

Not true. I was in Batch #1 and Batch #3 and I got my refund on Saturday.

Sorry if you misunderstood me, but I meant that those who ordered first, should be in front of others who ordered later. I am in batch 2 and did not get refund. FIFO method. Beside, its unknown of how many did actually requested it and actual SB refund requests from yifu.
I did not meant that nobody from earlier batches did not get refunded  

I would be interesting to know the relative dates professorY and alfabitcoin requested their refunds. I'd assume SB is refunding in order the refunds are received?

[alfabitcoin]

It sound unfair to me that those who ordered early batches and requested refund still did not get it, while buyers with later batches did get refund.

Not true. I was in Batch #1 and Batch #3 and I got my refund on Saturday.

Sorry if you misunderstood me, but I meant that those who ordered first, should be in front of others who ordered later. I am in batch 2 and did not get refund. FIFO method. Beside, its unknown of how many did actually requested it and actual SB refund requests from yifu.
I did not meant that nobody from earlier batches did not get refunded  

I would be interesting to know the relative dates professorY and alfabitcoin requested their refunds. I'd assume SB is refunding in order the refunds are received?

Its easy to answer
From post history profesor requested refund 48hrs after email and I have requested it max 20hrs from email. Its hard to say when exactelly, I am in different time zone (eu) received email in 2 am my time and filled it afternoon.
It does not matter, there is nothing then to wait and that is exactely what I will do. Seem to me like I post too much,lol

[Rakessh]

Anyone considered using a small thermoelectric cooling module to cool the boards IR3895 units (It has a thermally-compensated current limit) to gain more amps for overclocking?