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Author Topic: [2.5+ EH] Slush Pool (slushpool.com); World's First Mining Pool  (Read 4326758 times)
Trongersoll
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June 17, 2013, 01:10:32 AM
 #10221

And new difficulty set to 19339258. Let's hope for the best.

Doom and gloom.... its a race to the end

I've said it before and I'll say it again. Because difficulty rises the same for everyone, it has no affect on reward. it is the increase in hashing power that will diminish your reward and that happens over time as new equipment comes on line.
Not really true, unless I'm misunderstanding what you mean. Each difficulty 1 share has an expected value of [Bitcoin reward]/[Mining difficulty], so your expected reward per share is directly affected by mining difficulty (and of course the network hashrate - they are really measuring and affecting similar things)

The difficulty just normalizes the output so it is every 10 minutes. Slush's approximately 10% of the pool will get 10% regardless of the difficulty. I don't care if you believe me, it is what it is.

Sure, but with an increase in difficulty (and of course the  network hashrate) Slush's pool will either find fewer blocks, or if it manages to keep a constant proportion of the network, it will require a greater hashrate.
everyone will find fewer blocks.... screw it believe what you want. watchin' True Blood.
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Every time a block is mined, a certain amount of BTC (called the subsidy) is created out of thin air and given to the miner. The subsidy halves every four years and will reach 0 in about 130 years.
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organofcorti
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June 17, 2013, 01:13:22 AM
 #10222

And new difficulty set to 19339258. Let's hope for the best.

Doom and gloom.... its a race to the end

I've said it before and I'll say it again. Because difficulty rises the same for everyone, it has no affect on reward. it is the increase in hashing power that will diminish your reward and that happens over time as new equipment comes on line.
Not really true, unless I'm misunderstanding what you mean. Each difficulty 1 share has an expected value of [Bitcoin reward]/[Mining difficulty], so your expected reward per share is directly affected by mining difficulty (and of course the network hashrate - they are really measuring and affecting similar things)

The difficulty just normalizes the output so it is every 10 minutes. Slush's approximately 10% of the pool will get 10% regardless of the difficulty. I don't care if you believe me, it is what it is.

Sure, but with an increase in difficulty (and of course the  network hashrate) Slush's pool will either find fewer blocks, or if it manages to keep a constant proportion of the network, it will require a greater hashrate.
everyone will find fewer blocks.... screw it believe what you want.

I'm not actually disagreeing with you in general , just your statement about difficulty.

watchin' True Blood.

Asshole. I wont be able to watch until I get home tonight. Post spoilers at your peril.

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Trongersoll
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June 17, 2013, 02:02:15 AM
 #10223

ok, assume that there is no new hardware added the 48 hours before and after the difficulty increase(hypothetical) if slush's pool will find fewer blocks after the rise in difficulty who is getting the difference? if you are saying that there will be an overall decrease in blocks, well yeah, we were making too many per day, although it is probably only a fraction of a block per day. Everyone's per day income may go down, but not noticeably because it was going down everytime new hardware came on line over the last 2000 odd blocks. the difficulty has no immediate effect on income.
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June 17, 2013, 02:52:17 AM
 #10224

ok, assume that there is no new hardware added the 48 hours before and after the difficulty increase(hypothetical) if slush's pool will find fewer blocks after the rise in difficulty who is getting the difference? if you are saying that there will be an overall decrease in blocks, well yeah, we were making too many per day, although it is probably only a fraction of a block per day. Everyone's per day income may go down, but not noticeably because it was going down everytime new hardware came on line over the last 2000 odd blocks. the difficulty has no immediate effect on income.

The decrease from DIFF is way less than 100 butterfly jalapenos being added to Slush.

it is a pointless topic cuz there is always going to be someone that knows its fractional but will keep talking like it isnt.

 Driving with the AC on will decrease your MPG. but not enough to matter.
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June 17, 2013, 03:04:39 AM
 #10225

ok, assume that there is no new hardware added the 48 hours before and after the difficulty increase(hypothetical) if slush's pool will find fewer blocks after the rise in difficulty who is getting the difference? if you are saying that there will be an overall decrease in blocks, well yeah, we were making too many per day, although it is probably only a fraction of a block per day. Everyone's per day income may go down, but not noticeably because it was going down everytime new hardware came on line over the last 2000 odd blocks. the difficulty has no immediate effect on income.

No.

During the 2016 blocks periode, the global (hourly, daily) reward is rising, as the global hashrate is rising. The (global) frequency of finding block is rising, so is the global reward. Reward for each block/share/MH/s is stable while the difficulty is constant. I.e., miners' reward is stable too, as long as their hashrate is constant. New miners/workers get equal reward per MH/s as the old ones, thus adding to the global reward increase.

At the moment of re-targeting, when difficulty rises, the number of shares to find a block rises instantly. That is, each share, each MH/s, gets less from that moment. So does the whole network. The global reward per (hour, day) drops with the ratio (old difficulty / new difficulty). This way it compensates for the two weeks' rise, trying to restore the standard block periode of 10 minutes.
So, the reward of a miner with constant power, who had been getting constant reward for last two weeks, drops instantly too.

Yes, the rising global hashrate is the real reason. Reason why the difficulty must rise. But the reward drops appear at the moments of re-targeting, while during the 2016 blocks individual reward is stable and the global one is rising.

So: No, the reward is not going down everytime new hardware came on line through the 2016 block period. This accumulated rise in power is compensated for at the moment of re-targeting.
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June 17, 2013, 03:06:56 AM
 #10226

ok, assume that there is no new hardware added the 48 hours before and after the difficulty increase(hypothetical) if slush's pool will find fewer blocks after the rise in difficulty who is getting the difference? if you are saying that there will be an overall decrease in blocks, well yeah, we were making too many per day, although it is probably only a fraction of a block per day. Everyone's per day income may go down, but not noticeably because it was going down everytime new hardware came on line over the last 2000 odd blocks. the difficulty has no immediate effect on income.

If I get some time I'll explain it better. But you can expect your average earnings between any two retargets (changes in difficulty) to equal [block reward]/[mining difficulty]. Assuming block reward is 25 btc, then your earnings after a difficulty change will be inversely proportional to the percentage change in difficulty.

If you have some data, try calculating for yourself - get your average earnings for the entire difficulty period before and the entire difficulty period after a retarget, and compare to the change in difficulty.

Edit OK, I don't need to explain better. gourmet just did.

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June 17, 2013, 03:27:10 AM
 #10227

The decrease from DIFF is way less than 100 butterfly jalapenos being added to Slush.

it is a pointless topic cuz there is always going to be someone that knows its fractional but will keep talking like it isnt.

 Driving with the AC on will decrease your MPG. but not enough to matter.

Totally wrong.

100 jalapenos is some 450 GH/s, it's nearly nothing in the >16 TH/s of the pool. (The pool has risen from ~12 TH to >16 TH in short time...)
Well, 0.45/16 is about 2.8 %, while the last difficulty change has been >23.9 %.

And most important: Yes, diff change caused a decrease in reward, while adding power to the pool did not. Adding power decreases reward per block, but increases block frequency, so daily reward remains constant.
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June 17, 2013, 03:41:50 AM
 #10228

Yikes, down to 57% luck on the day.

Well, I'm hoping for the best with Slush's after the difficulty bump. Maybe our luck will turn around.

Pool luck (1 day, 7 days, 30 days):   55%, 85%, 96%   Sad
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June 17, 2013, 06:09:45 AM
 #10229

The decrease from DIFF is way less than 100 butterfly jalapenos being added to Slush.

it is a pointless topic cuz there is always going to be someone that knows its fractional but will keep talking like it isnt.

 Driving with the AC on will decrease your MPG. but not enough to matter.

Totally wrong.

100 jalapenos is some 450 GH/s, it's nearly nothing in the >16 TH/s of the pool. (The pool has risen from ~12 TH to >16 TH in short time...)
Well, 0.45/16 is about 2.8 %, while the last difficulty change has been >23.9 %.

And most important: Yes, diff change caused a decrease in reward, while adding power to the pool did not. Adding power decreases reward per block, but increases block frequency, so daily reward remains constant.

ok 200 Jalapenos... I purposely low balled the number of Jalapenos to make a point. SOMEONE will always try to say your wrong when your right.
Like I said pointless topic I am totally right.
 scroll back 25 pages its tiresome repeating the same thing everytime diff increases
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June 17, 2013, 06:12:11 AM
 #10230

Yikes, down to 57% luck on the day.

Well, I'm hoping for the best with Slush's after the difficulty bump. Maybe our luck will turn around.

Pool luck (1 day, 7 days, 30 days):   55%, 85%, 96%   Sad

dont forget to mention pool luck is down cuz of diff increase.

Pool luck (1 day, 7 days, 30 days):   75%, 88%, 96%

all ready on pace to beat out yesterdays blocks with the diff that dicates we wont... luck never plays a role life is over. cha ching
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June 17, 2013, 06:23:54 AM
 #10231

Yikes, down to 57% luck on the day.

Well, I'm hoping for the best with Slush's after the difficulty bump. Maybe our luck will turn around.

Pool luck (1 day, 7 days, 30 days):   55%, 85%, 96%   Sad

dont forget to mention pool luck is down cuz of diff increase.

Pool luck (1 day, 7 days, 30 days):   75%, 88%, 96%

all ready on pace to beat out yesterdays blocks with the diff that dicates we wont... luck never plays a role life is over. cha ching

Pool luck is unaffected by changes in difficulty. In fact, pool luck is usually expressed in terms of shares per round / difficulty, although I think slush uses difficulty / shares per round * 100.

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gourmet
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June 17, 2013, 06:33:50 AM
 #10232

Yikes, down to 57% luck on the day.

Well, I'm hoping for the best with Slush's after the difficulty bump. Maybe our luck will turn around.

Pool luck (1 day, 7 days, 30 days):   55%, 85%, 96%   Sad

dont forget to mention pool luck is down cuz of diff increase.

Pool luck (1 day, 7 days, 30 days):   75%, 88%, 96%

all ready on pace to beat out yesterdays blocks with the diff that dicates we wont... luck never plays a role life is over. cha ching

If and when the luck is calculated correctly, it doesn't depend on diff change.
I.e., luck calculation should take the change into account.
[edit]: Organofcorti has just said it.

And if the luck is going to fully compensate for yesterday's bad luck today, the compensation in btc will be 0.807 times less then it would be if it hadn't been for the diff change. In other words, today's gain (in earnings) is going to be lower than yestrerday's loss, because of the change.
This is our loss due to the luck variance when the difficulty is rising simultaneously.
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June 17, 2013, 07:31:27 AM
 #10233

Pool luck (1 day, 7 days, 30 days):   75%, 88%, 96%

all ready on pace to beat out yesterdays blocks (...)

Pool luck (1 day, 7 days, 30 days):   73%, 87%, 96%

Doesn't look like that...
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June 17, 2013, 08:34:36 AM
 #10234

Pool luck (1 day, 7 days, 30 days):   75%, 88%, 96%

all ready on pace to beat out yesterdays blocks (...)

Pool luck (1 day, 7 days, 30 days):   73%, 87%, 96%

Doesn't look like that...

Current server time today 8:30  found first 7 blocks

yesterday at @ 8:30 we had only found 5 blocks

so it would appear that we are ahead of yesterdays stats?

EDIT: and this with a lower pool hash rate from yesterday ( which I am seeing a larger reward from already)
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June 17, 2013, 09:28:01 AM
 #10235

Pool luck (1 day, 7 days, 30 days):   75%, 88%, 96%

all ready on pace to beat out yesterdays blocks (...)

Pool luck (1 day, 7 days, 30 days):   73%, 87%, 96%

Doesn't look like that...

Current server time today 8:30  found first 7 blocks

yesterday at @ 8:30 we had only found 5 blocks

so it would appear that we are ahead of yesterdays stats?

EDIT: and this with a lower pool hash rate from yesterday ( which I am seeing a larger reward from already)

We may be ahead of yesterday stats, they being 50 to 70 % luck. But we definitely aren't all ready on pace to beat out yesterdays blocks, which would require luck >> 100 %.

[Edit] And I've been replying to the "pace", which I've understood to mean increasing luck, while I've been observing luck still decrease ATM.
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June 17, 2013, 01:44:52 PM
 #10236

Difficulty is up value is down luck also. Not  very good times for miners.
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June 17, 2013, 01:53:22 PM
 #10237

Difficulty is up value is down luck also. Not  very good times for miners.

I see the value continuing to go down.  In the coming months you will see a shift from GPU mining to ASIC mining.  GPU miners will start to get out because it's not cost effective.

And the small time GPU miners are the people who actually will take btc and spend them in the community.  Most ASIC miners are in it for speculation/investment.   And they will just sit on their btc.  Which is bad for the system.

The more people we have actually using btc for everyday purchases the healthier btc will be.

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June 17, 2013, 02:50:11 PM
 #10238

Difficulty is up value is down luck also. Not  very good times for miners.

I see the value continuing to go down.  In the coming months you will see a shift from GPU mining to ASIC mining.  GPU miners will start to get out because it's not cost effective.

And the small time GPU miners are the people who actually will take btc and spend them in the community.  Most ASIC miners are in it for speculation/investment.   And they will just sit on their btc.  Which is bad for the system.

The more people we have actually using btc for everyday purchases the healthier btc will be.

The Question is, how many GPU miners would not buy ASIC hardware? I think very lot.
My PC uses 125w idle, with 99% GPU uses ~240w, Different is 115 watt/h.
For 24H running 2.7 kw. With 300 MHash/s i earn 0.0072 BTC / 24H, this is 0.54 Euro. My power cost is 0.23 EUR/kw.
0.621 Euro power cost and 0.54 Euro BTC earing. That is -0.081 Euro pro day.
This not worth it to mining with unused GPU time.

I think, lot of ppl would stop mining with BTC, many hundreds, and when they stop mining, they stop use BTC too.

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June 17, 2013, 03:43:13 PM
 #10239

If BTC was just about pc gamers it should have fallen over ages ago.    Other people are using it, I would presume they will continue to do so until its no longer reliable.   Asic since it costs less per unit probably helps the system but not the little miners.

What GPU are you on that it is no longer profitable ?

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June 17, 2013, 04:40:20 PM
 #10240

My PC uses 125w idle, with 99% GPU uses ~240w, Different is 115 watt/h.
For 24H running 2.7 kw. With 300 MHash/s i earn 0.0072 BTC / 24H, this is 0.54 Euro. My power cost is 0.23 EUR/kw.
0.621 Euro power cost and 0.54 Euro BTC earing. That is -0.081 Euro pro day.
This not worth it to mining with unused GPU time.

Your calculation is using current exchange rate. This makes sense when you are planing to sell/spend your freshly mined btcs immediately. Otherwise, exchange rate may change either upwards or downwards before you use your coins, you don't know in advance. Anyway, if you're going to use your coins and not sell them immediately, your calculation can't be that simple. :-)
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