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Trongersoll
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July 13, 2013, 03:39:44 PM |
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I'm not a math whiz, but this just doesn't feel right. that CDF thing, i've never been able to wrap my mind around it. Is it saying that we are just a little off what is statistically expected? or is it not relevent to our run of bad luck. Yesterday i added Hashers and lost ground  . I can't say that i'm liking this. If it is luck, then i know it will turn around eventually, but could it be something else? Is there a way for external influences to affect our luck?  |
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Synethstesia
Newbie
 Offline
Activity: 42
Merit: 0
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July 13, 2013, 03:46:55 PM |
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I just know... as soon as I jump ship... We're going to hit a string of quick ones.
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EasyQuest
Full Member
Offline
Activity: 198
Merit: 100
Brony Bitcoin, Litecoin Miner
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July 13, 2013, 03:50:31 PM |
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I just know... as soon as I jump ship... We're going to hit a string of quick ones.
I jumped the ship already and landed on 50BTC for now. It was a good call as I observe the pool is on a bad luck streak. |
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chadtn
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July 13, 2013, 04:16:48 PM |
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I had to pull my system down for 24 hours the other day. That just happened to be the day thirty blocks were solved. Finally get back up and running for the worst bad luck steak I've ever personally witnessed. lol
Chad
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EasyQuest
Full Member
Offline
Activity: 198
Merit: 100
Brony Bitcoin, Litecoin Miner
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July 13, 2013, 04:25:26 PM |
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I had to pull my system down for 24 hours the other day. That just happened to be the day thirty blocks were solved. Finally get back up and running for the worst bad luck steak I've ever personally witnessed. lol
Chad
I know that feeling mate. |
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ldcnxaag
Newbie
Offline
Activity: 3
Merit: 0
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July 13, 2013, 04:48:20 PM |
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Finally! Let's hope the next 100 or so ones don't take longer than 2 hours. Or did I just jinx it? |
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angryrob
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July 13, 2013, 06:22:39 PM |
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w00t, pushing that 7-day average in the right direction now. We thank thee Luck; our dispassionate mathematical deity.
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Altoidnerd
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July 13, 2013, 10:31:14 PM |
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I'm not a math whiz, but this just doesn't feel right. that CDF thing, i've never been able to wrap my mind around it. Is it saying that we are just a little off what is statistically expected? or is it not relevent to our run of bad luck. Yesterday i added Hashers and lost ground . I can't say that i'm liking this. If it is luck, then i know it will turn around eventually, but could it be something else? Is there a way for external influences to affect our luck? The CDF percentage represents probability a block will have already been found by now after this number of submitted shares. So yes, this is an unlucky streak for slush's pool - hang in there. Remember all that matters in the end is fees, and slush's are the lowest I found. Right now I see Current round duration: 2:41:28 Current shares CDF: 78.81 % Approx. cluster performance (30 min average): 18053.927 Ghash/s Which means that if the network hash rate stayed constant, the difficulty stayed constant, and nobody left or joined slush's pool, 78% of the time, a block will take less time to find than 2 hours and 41 minutes. However this implies 22% of blocks will take longer than 2 hours and 41 minutes. |
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Trongersoll
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July 13, 2013, 10:44:00 PM |
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oh, i get it... I think heh. thanks  |
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n0creativity
Member
Offline
Activity: 65
Merit: 10
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July 14, 2013, 12:31:06 AM |
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Hey Slush... if your watching... block 246435 seems off for me... just a bit: 19090 2013-07-14 00:12:53 4:20:53 65593477 7674 0.00000133 246435 25.41995000 99 confirmations left Help??  |
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aurel57
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1176
Merit: 1000
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July 14, 2013, 12:34:34 AM |
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Hey Slush... if your watching... block 246435 seems off for me... just a bit: 19090 2013-07-14 00:12:53 4:20:53 65593477 7674 0.00000133 246435 25.41995000 99 confirmations left Help?? same here 19090 2013-07-14 00:12:53 4:20:53 65593477 18847 0.00000328 246435 25.41995000 99 confirmations left |
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Trongersoll
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July 14, 2013, 12:35:35 AM |
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um... yeah sombody don't like us.  19090 2013-07-14 00:12:53 4:20:53 65593477 24269 0.00000409 246435 25.41995000 |
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Altoidnerd
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July 14, 2013, 12:59:13 AM |
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19090 2013-07-14 00:12:53 4:20:53 65593477 1262 0.00000022 246435 25.41995000
Indeed. Could this be because the constant in the exponential is off? That could have the effect of heavily favoring the last say, 10 shares.
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Trongersoll
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July 14, 2013, 01:04:58 AM |
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19090 2013-07-14 00:12:53 4:20:53 65593477 1262 0.00000022 246435 25.41995000
Indeed. Could this be because the constant in the exponential is off? That could have the effect of heavily favoring the last say, 10 shares.
no, this just happens sometimes. Either it fixes itself eventually or Slush goes in an fixes it. Nothing to worry about. This is why we're smiling and making light of it. |
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Altoidnerd
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July 14, 2013, 01:09:54 AM |
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 I'm not worried about it, I love slush's pool! I'm loyal. Does anyone know what the magic exponential constant is set to? That is something I'm interested in.
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Uliss
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July 14, 2013, 03:18:18 AM |
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19090 2013-07-14 00:12:53 4:20:53 65593477 31210 0.00000518
Current round duration: 3:04:41
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Garfield
Newbie
Offline
Activity: 21
Merit: 0
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July 14, 2013, 03:46:39 AM
Last edit: July 14, 2013, 10:24:23 AM by Garfield |
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19090 2013-07-14 00:12:53 4:20:53 65593477 1262 0.00000022 246435 25.41995000
Indeed. Could this be because the constant in the exponential is off? That could have the effect of heavily favoring the last say, 10 shares.
19090 2013-07-14 00:12:53 4:20:53 65593477 23672 0.00000391 246435 25.41995000 69 confirmations left let's hope it gets fixed soon. The bad luck has us watching every share like hawks. 19090 2013-07-14 00:12:53 4:20:53 65591273 23672 0.00899062 246435 25.41995000 26 confirmations left Looks like it got fixed |
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Furious
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July 14, 2013, 05:10:31 AM |
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http://imgur.com/nDiELJEtwo of the same duration. different reward?? # Block found at Duration Total shares Your shares Your BTC reward Block # Block value Validity 19091 2013-07-14 04:32:07 4:19:14 65727074 273024 0.10079988 246473 25.08121000 95 confirmations left 19090 2013-07-14 00:12:53 4:20:53 65593477 283328 0.00004508 246435 25.41995000 57 confirmations left
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n0creativity
Member
Offline
Activity: 65
Merit: 10
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July 14, 2013, 05:14:07 AM |
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If you read the last 1.5 pages of posts, you'll notice we were talking about it. The pool software does this on occasion (not too often). Usually Slush will fix it before it get completely confirmed. Sit tight and hope Slush sees our posts. |
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gourmet
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July 14, 2013, 05:50:08 AM |
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I'm not worried about it, I love slush's pool! I'm loyal. Does anyone know what the magic exponential constant is set to? That is something I'm interested in. If nothing has changed, the constant is 300, i.e. 5 minutes. |
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