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Question: What type of pool payouts do you prefer?
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Author Topic: [150+ PH] SlushPool (slushpool.com); World's First Mining Pool  (Read 4163775 times)
pekatete
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October 15, 2014, 01:25:14 PM
 #19321

you find a block you are pretty damn lucky ... More people means more resources means the 'luck' is shared among contributors and more consistent. This scales too.
Your perception of luck or what it means is conceptually flawed. There is no such thing as shared luck in the context of bitcoin mining, let alone that you can scale that luck.

My understanding of pool luck is that it is a simple percentage calculation based on hashing power (EDIT: that of a pool over the entire network END EDIT:) as a factor of blocks released by the bitcoin algorithm. Sometimes, weights are factored into that calcullation based on bands of hashing power (of a pool), but in my opinion, this is simply eye candy (aka smoothing). If that is what you refer to as "scalable luck" then you are confusing one thing for the other.

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October 15, 2014, 03:13:04 PM
 #19322

dmwardjr,
You really need to read the latest posts in the S4 thread as the PSU's are crap and are catching on fire. Would not put into my house at this point. Wouldn't be surprised if bitmain pulls them for now they know they have some serious problems that could potentially hurt someone.

THX FOR THE HEADS UP!!!

Still will be 2 to 4 weeks before I start getting those.  Maybe they will have that issue worked out by the time I get to thinking seriously about getting 1 or 2 of them.

I need to look at the thread on them.

Seems like they have sorted that out.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=330665.msg9207615#msg9207615

Still, I'll wait for user reports after they ship the "new" S4's (by which time they may actually not be worth it in terms of ROI !!!)

Thanks, sjc!!!

I will be ordering one as soon as I have enough BTC earned from my current S3's in operation.  I'm more than half way there. 

I started with 10 S3's.  Now that I have 16 S3's going, I should achieve the BTC needed to purchase the S4 sooner.

I'm satisfied with their solution to ship out new S4's with the updated PSU's.  They are also including 10 days worth of BTC mined by 2 TH's of hashing power.  However, what that amount is, I'm not sure.

I believe they will have the updated firmware in the controller installed as well.  If not, it's no big deal.  Even Slush now will allow "difficulty setting." I'm at 2.06 BTC earned since the 22nd of September.  Those earnings are with several interruptions with my internet connection. 

I NOW have a business account with a static IP that also ensures I'm up and running within 4 hours of an outage.  They installed a business modem two days ago (Monday).  Charter Communications slowest speed the offered was 30 Mbps.  Now it is 60 Mbps.  They were not quite done with the upgrades in all areas [My area being one of them] before implementation.  The outages I've had [off and on] over a 10 day period caused me to miss out on approximately 0.21 BTC ($80.00 US at this date and time of writing). 

Also, my serving pedestal is a 4 Port 11 Value.  The Forward signal (down stream) and Return signal (up stream)  are coming out of the pedestal at too hot of a level.  They have not adjusted the levels down to acceptable levels.  I've had to "pad it down" with a splitter that inserts -7dB of loss to ensure a "stable" connection.  I'm fine with this.  If something should happen in the outside plant to reduce the levels arriving at the serving pedestal, I will simply remove my splitter in front of the modem.

Thanks again for the info.  I'm still going to purchase an S4 the very moment I have enough BTC in my wallet to get one.  I will get it working as soon as it arrives to make it possible to get another S4 even faster than the previous one.  So on and so forth.  I'm paying for the electricity out of my own pocket without converting BTC to US until I have approximately all 8 S4's I'm wanting.  Then I will begin converting the BTC needed to pay for electricity.

Thanks again for your update, sjc!!!





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October 15, 2014, 03:27:11 PM
 #19323

Have you noticed how nobody complains when we have a run of good luck, but when it goes tits-up for a couple of days all the accusations and conspiracy theories start coming out of the woodwork?  Happens every time - so does the return to normal performance, if there is such a thing.

If somebody complained of good luck, that would be strange; on the other hand, it is perfectly normal to complain of bad luck (and that in any field of life, not just bitcoin pool luck!)

Now if you care to take some time and explain to me what exactly your point was, that would be nice (lucky if you like).

Though not worded the best, his point was that every time a run of bad luck comes along people - particularly those new to mining - will spout off as though it's unusual and crap on about it being 'fishy' among other things, while only a few weeks prior thinking they have the expertise to predict when a block will be found based off a few prior days when luck was good.

I agree with him. Ignorance is no excuse under the law, nor should it be on here with several hundred previous pages of which maybe 5-10% are people utterly astonished that luck can go down as well as up.

Dude, don't talk like that.

I mentioned more than I could care to count "Depending on luck."  Don't be nor talk in such condescending tones, PLEASE.  I could have responding to you another way that would accomplish nothing but disrespectful communications between the two of us and waste both of our time.

Did I or did I not explain the numbers in order for two particular pools (Slush and GHash) needed to achieve 100% LUCK?  I do believe the word "LUCK" was mentioned several times in my posts.  I did not DARE say they WILL find that many blocks.  So, don't put words in my mouth and try to make a mockery of me.

Yes, I may be a newbie, but that doesn't mean I cannot use data to determine a pools "100 % LUCK FACTOR."  I want to call you so many names now for misrepresenting me that I find it hard to hold back.  However, I'm going to hold back to avoid taking away from our discussion.  Just don't be rude and make proclamations that have no merit.

I have many posts that said how many blocks a pool would need to find in order to achieve 100% LUCK and NEVER PREDICTED HOW MANY BLOCKS THEY ACTUALLY WILL FIND.

Here is an example:  

Slush is averaging right at 8 PH/s TOTAL hashing power.  At present difficulty, that is approximately 5 hours 10 minutes time for each block found.  To be at 100% Luck for the week [while maintaining a consistent 8 PH/s] we would need to find [24 hours divided by 5.16666667 hours] = 4.64516129 blocks each day during that week.  Again, that's to maintain 100% Luck.

[Slush] 4.64516129 blocks x .01452471 average shares with 4.67 TH/s = 0.06746962 BTC average each day.  That would be 2.02408860 BTC in 30 days (1 month).

GHash is averaging right at 60 PH/s TOTAL hashing power.  At present difficulty, that is approximately 41 minutes 21 seconds for each block found.  To be at 100% Luck for the week [while maintaining a consistent 60 PH/s] they would need to find [24 hours divided by .68775 hours] = 34.8964013 blocks each day during that week.  Again, that's to maintain 100% Luck.

EDIT:  CORRECTION MADE TO GHASH ON AVERAGE SHARES, WHICH CHANGES ALL NUMBERS

[GHash] 34.8964013 blocks x .00193933 average shares with 4.67 TH/s = 0.066767564 BTC average each day.  That would be 2.03026914 BTC in 30 days (1 month).  ALSO, one also gets bonus alt coins as well.  Such as NMC and others.  It's a bonus all the way.  Not sure how well those coins are doing and their value related to BTC.  Haven't really looked into THAT part of it deep enough yet.


So, chill out please...

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October 15, 2014, 03:30:33 PM
 #19324

Have you noticed how nobody complains when we have a run of good luck, but when it goes tits-up for a couple of days all the accusations and conspiracy theories start coming out of the woodwork?  Happens every time - so does the return to normal performance, if there is such a thing.

If somebody complained of good luck, that would be strange; on the other hand, it is perfectly normal to complain of bad luck (and that in any field of life, not just bitcoin pool luck!)

Now if you care to take some time and explain to me what exactly your point was, that would be nice (lucky if you like).

Though not worded the best, his point was that every time a run of bad luck comes along people - particularly those new to mining - will spout off as though it's unusual and crap on about it being 'fishy' among other things, while only a few weeks prior thinking they have the expertise to predict when a block will be found based off a few prior days when luck was good.

I agree with him. Ignorance is no excuse under the law, nor should it be on here with several hundred previous pages of which maybe 5-10% are people utterly astonished that luck can go down as well as up.

Explain to me how the following is "ignorance":

Slush is averaging right at 8 PH/s TOTAL hashing power.  At present difficulty, that is approximately 5 hours 10 minutes time for each block found.  To be at 100% Luck for the week [while maintaining a consistent 8 PH/s] we would need to find [24 hours divided by 5.16666667 hours] = 4.64516129 blocks each day during that week.  Again, that's to maintain 100% Luck.

[Slush] 4.64516129 blocks x .01452471 average shares with 4.67 TH/s = 0.06746962 BTC average each day.  That would be 2.02408860 BTC in 30 days (1 month).

GHash is averaging right at 60 PH/s TOTAL hashing power.  At present difficulty, that is approximately 41 minutes 21 seconds for each block found.  To be at 100% Luck for the week [while maintaining a consistent 60 PH/s] they would need to find [24 hours divided by .68775 hours] = 34.8964013 blocks each day during that week.  Again, that's to maintain 100% Luck.

EDIT:  CORRECTION MADE TO GHASH ON AVERAGE SHARES, WHICH CHANGES ALL NUMBERS

[GHash] 34.8964013 blocks x .00193933 average shares with 4.67 TH/s = 0.066767564 BTC average each day.  That would be 2.03026914 BTC in 30 days (1 month).  ALSO, one also gets bonus alt coins as well.  Such as NMC and others.  It's a bonus all the way.  Not sure how well those coins are doing and their value related to BTC.  Haven't really looked into THAT part of it deep enough yet.

Do you see ANYWHERE in this where I made SO CALL PREDICTIONS?

HELL NO YOU DON'T

Also, if you have ANY sense, you would agree that these calculations have merit.

If you have any HONOR, you would also admit you were WRONG to claim I "predicted" when and how many blocks would be found by any pool.

Judge not according to the appearance, but judge righteous judgement.

Also, do not bare FALSE witness.

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October 15, 2014, 03:42:02 PM
 #19325

If, as you insist, pool luck is just that, then surely it can not be demonstrated to be otherwise. Unfortunately for you, it has, and that by the ignorant mob you so detest.

On the contrary. For the sake of the argument envisage yourself as the sole miner of bitcoins and ask yourself whether you would find a block bang on every 10 minutes or if there would be a variation. That's Solo. Now extrapolate that variation over the number of miners/pools we currently have and it's only natural the variation is going to be exacerbated.


So, if someone is astonished at how un-lucky (or vice versa) a pool is, so what ... !?

It becomes repetitive. Simple as that. Just the same as the numerous posts on slush's payout times become repetitive. The issue is not with what people are (or aren't) astonished about but rather that they keep flogging a dead horse.

I want you to show me in the following post I have made and repeated on here several times HOW THE HECK I SAID WHEN A BLOCK WILL BE FOUND AND HOW MANY BLOCKS WOULD BE FOUND...  DID I OR DID I NOT SAY A CERTAIN NUMBER WOULD HAVE TO BE FOUND """""TO BE 100% LUCK FOR THE WEEK?"""""



Slush is averaging right at 8 PH/s TOTAL hashing power.  At present difficulty, that is approximately 5 hours 10 minutes time for each block found.  To be at 100% Luck for the week [while maintaining a consistent 8 PH/s] we would need to find [24 hours divided by 5.16666667 hours] = 4.64516129 blocks each day during that week.  Again, that's to maintain 100% Luck.

[Slush] 4.64516129 blocks x .01452471 average shares with 4.67 TH/s = 0.06746962 BTC average each day.  That would be 2.02408860 BTC in 30 days (1 month).

GHash is averaging right at 60 PH/s TOTAL hashing power.  At present difficulty, that is approximately 41 minutes 21 seconds for each block found.  To be at 100% Luck for the week [while maintaining a consistent 60 PH/s] they would need to find [24 hours divided by .68775 hours] = 34.8964013 blocks each day during that week.  Again, that's to maintain 100% Luck.

EDIT:  CORRECTION MADE TO GHASH ON AVERAGE SHARES, WHICH CHANGES ALL NUMBERS

[GHash] 34.8964013 blocks x .00193933 average shares with 4.67 TH/s = 0.066767564 BTC average each day.  That would be 2.03026914 BTC in 30 days (1 month).  ALSO, one also gets bonus alt coins as well.  Such as NMC and others.  It's a bonus all the way.  Not sure how well those coins are doing and their value related to BTC.  Haven't really looked into THAT part of it deep enough yet.


STOP YOUR CLAIMS THAT HAVE LACK OF MERIT!  STOP BARING FALSE WITNESS AS WELL!!!

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October 15, 2014, 03:44:14 PM
 #19326

... extrapolate that variation over the number of miners/pools we currently have and it's only natural the variation is going to be exacerbated.

As far as pool luck is concerned, thanks for agreeing with the ignorant mob (or for that matter counting yourself amongst the ignorant mob)

It becomes repetitive. Simple as that. .... The issue is not with what people are (or aren't) astonished about but rather that they keep flogging a dead horse.

What is the harm in that? The bloody thing is dead anyways!

LOL

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October 15, 2014, 03:46:21 PM
 #19327

you find a block you are pretty damn lucky ... More people means more resources means the 'luck' is shared among contributors and more consistent. This scales too.
Your perception of luck or what it means is conceptually flawed. There is no such thing as shared luck in the context of bitcoin mining, let alone that you can scale that luck.

My understanding of pool luck is that it is a simple percentage calculation based on hashing power (EDIT: that of a pool over the entire network END EDIT:) as a factor of blocks released by the bitcoin algorithm. Sometimes, weights are factored into that calcullation based on bands of hashing power (of a pool), but in my opinion, this is simply eye candy (aka smoothing). If that is what you refer to as "scalable luck" then you are confusing one thing for the other.

Exactly!!!!

I honestly believe someone needs to take a BEAM out of their own eye before they even think to take out "what they think" is a splinter out of someone else's eye.

I learned a long time ago that many times their is a "pride before a fall."

I also learned to have the honor to admit if I'm wrong and work to make amends if achievable. 

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October 15, 2014, 03:58:01 PM
 #19328

Settle down. The posts in question are like these ones.
It's more than a luck.

a 4 second round a couple of days ago which is invalid.

then one more invalid round right before that 28+ hours of thing...

It looks to more than a luck.

Somebody may be playing a game...

I'm becoming paranoid...
I got to thinking about this website change and other changes they are doing at Slush.  I was NOT willing to risk my electricity consumption on a "what if." I decided to go to another pool yesterday at noon till they get things worked out.  I'm seriously wondering if it's something they are doing on the backend or SOMETHING that is affecting this.  It could be just bad luck.  Not sure.

Since I'm "not sure" I'm staying away till changes are implemented with no more interruptions.  It ended up being a good decision to move yesterday.  Just lucky I presume.  Who knows?

I will come back to 80% Slush and 20% others after Slush gets things ironed out.  I still believe it's something they are doing on the backend.  Could be bad luck.  According to the odds of a block at our hashing power and present difficulty, we should find a block every 5 hours and 43 minutes [Approximately].  So, either something went wrong on the backend or we are having TERRIBLE bad luck.
I'm still not coming over till I know things are worked out.

till what is worked out. luck is luck u cant work it. this long block just equaled the day we got 8+ since we should only be doing 4.5 a day

May be...

Let's just say until this luck thing works out.
ONE valid block in the last 41 hours and 15 minutes and counting.  this is officially the longest drought i have witnessed.  i remember a 34 hour block, but i don't recall 41+ and only ONE valid block

Agreed!

Something is fishy and I don't like it!!!

That's why I've been on the Dark Side the last 36 hours.

Every time there's a long block, similar posts go up about how something must be broken in the back end. There's never a corresponding "We solved 3 blocks in the last 40 minutes, something fishy is going on." post though. 99.9 CDF blocks are an expected part of mining, but you could probably find similar comments every time one shows up.
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October 15, 2014, 04:02:13 PM
 #19329

Settle down. The posts in question are like these ones.
It's more than a luck.

a 4 second round a couple of days ago which is invalid.

then one more invalid round right before that 28+ hours of thing...

It looks to more than a luck.

Somebody may be playing a game...

I'm becoming paranoid...
I got to thinking about this website change and other changes they are doing at Slush.  I was NOT willing to risk my electricity consumption on a "what if." I decided to go to another pool yesterday at noon till they get things worked out.  I'm seriously wondering if it's something they are doing on the backend or SOMETHING that is affecting this.  It could be just bad luck.  Not sure.

Since I'm "not sure" I'm staying away till changes are implemented with no more interruptions.  It ended up being a good decision to move yesterday.  Just lucky I presume.  Who knows?

I will come back to 80% Slush and 20% others after Slush gets things ironed out.  I still believe it's something they are doing on the backend.  Could be bad luck.  According to the odds of a block at our hashing power and present difficulty, we should find a block every 5 hours and 43 minutes [Approximately].  So, either something went wrong on the backend or we are having TERRIBLE bad luck.
I'm still not coming over till I know things are worked out.

till what is worked out. luck is luck u cant work it. this long block just equaled the day we got 8+ since we should only be doing 4.5 a day

May be...

Let's just say until this luck thing works out.
ONE valid block in the last 41 hours and 15 minutes and counting.  this is officially the longest drought i have witnessed.  i remember a 34 hour block, but i don't recall 41+ and only ONE valid block

Agreed!

Something is fishy and I don't like it!!!

That's why I've been on the Dark Side the last 36 hours.

Every time there's a long block, similar posts go up about how something must be broken in the back end. There's never a corresponding "We solved 3 blocks in the last 40 minutes, something fishy is going on." post though. 99.9 CDF blocks are an expected part of mining, but you could probably find similar comments every time one shows up.


Can you say, WITH 100% CERTAINTY, that no maintenance is being done on the back end [WITHOUT TELLING US] which would keep us from finding a block?

I don't think you can.  That is what I meant about "something fishy..."

When was the last time "NEWS" was posted on the Slush home page?  Why do we have to navigate to Facebook to get any kind of news?  WHY can't they at least post something in the "NEWS" section telling us to navigate to Facebook for updates.  I just see lack of professionalism.  I'm calling it like I see it.  If others want to criticize me for that, so be it.

A company gets better at serving its customers by listening to its customers.  I know Slush is an intelligent individual.  I'm not saying he should respond to all posts here or on Facebook for that matter.  All I'm saying is keep people informed on the actual website that hosts their product SO AS TO BUILD UP TRUST.  Don't make periodic posts on another website that does not even host your product (Facebook). 

I cannot stand Facebook.  They will allow a post of a baby kitten being tortured with fire in a bucket and say it is appropriate.  However, they deem it inappropriate to post even one single pic of a firearm.  Facebook is a disgrace to the human race!

So, again, what I mean by "fishy" is LACK OF PROFESSIONALISM in running a business.  Customer is number 1 IF one intends on keeping customers.  That's all I'm saying.  IF all of this is being done for free, then it's all the more reason NOT to depend on TRUE TRANSPARENCY.

Again, that's my opinion!  If I'm to be criticized for my opinion, so be it.

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October 15, 2014, 04:12:05 PM
 #19330

^ ghash and a couple others added to their corporate farms this week which threw the network off and with the pool hoppers here comming and going threw our numbers off, and our luck was already low.

So the factors in the last few days = luck, ghash's farm expansion and pool hoppers. Same old stuff.....we have to get back in the grove and hope people quit rocking the boat.(Stay, Go or Solo)

These links below are what is being looked at to solve some of the present and future mining problems.

This one is ok:
https://bitcoinfoundation.org/2014/07/mining-decentralisation-the-low-hanging-fruit/

This one's good:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=281180.0

@ dmwardjr
I agree with you about the support/News 100%. My other miners are at BTCguild and if you post a question on their thread it gets answered by eleurthra(pool owner) within an hour if it's important. He even comes on here and answers people's questions sometimes.

Slush just got tired of answering the same questions over and over and people would accuse him of cheating or degrade him when we have bad luck. So he left the thread unlocked for us to chat and he stopped posting here. He is still on the forum, just in the tech/programming section. Between Slush, Stick and Jan(world class programmers) they keep the pool running right, there's just nothing they can do for luck and unstable pool/network hash rate.

Right now it's just bad luck............

Listen: meat beat manifesto ~ Edge of no control (pt.1)
Read:"He who controls the past controls the future. He who controls the present controls the past." ~ George Orwell
Think: http://unenumerated.blogspot.com/2014/12/the-dawn-of-trustworthy-computing.html
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October 15, 2014, 04:30:54 PM
 #19331

Can you say, WITH 100% CERTAINTY, that no maintenance is being done on the back end [WITHOUT TELLING US] which would keep us from finding a block?

I don't think you can.  That is what I meant about "something fishy..."
Of course not, just like I can't guarantee with 100% certainty that Slush wasn't fiddling with his new quantum computer module the week before when we were at 200% luck for the week.

Shifting the goalposts to be about professionalism aside, the original observation remains valid. Every time there's a long block pages of posts pop up talking about how something must be broken, or Slush is playing games, or whatnot. It won't change of course, I imagine this conversation will die down soon until the next time we get a 99%+ block, at which point new people will be talking about how Slush broke the pool or is stealing everyone's money.
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October 15, 2014, 04:39:03 PM
 #19332

Of course not, just like I can't guarantee with 100% certainty that Slush wasn't fiddling with his new quantum computer module the week before when we were at 200% luck for the week.

Shifting the goalposts to be about professionalism aside, the original observation remains valid. Every time there's a long block pages of posts pop up talking about how something must be broken, or Slush is playing games, or whatnot. It won't change of course, I imagine this conversation will die down soon until the next time we get a 99%+ block, at which point new people will be talking about how Slush broke the pool or is stealing everyone's money.

For those who have seen it all and got the t-shirt, I suppose it would be in order to simply ignore those "annoying" posts accussing Slush of everything under the sun for the sake of their sanity. Barring which, be prepared to batten down for the storm if you talk down to the ignorants ...

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October 15, 2014, 05:18:23 PM
 #19333

Of course not, just like I can't guarantee with 100% certainty that Slush wasn't fiddling with his new quantum computer module the week before when we were at 200% luck for the week.

Shifting the goalposts to be about professionalism aside, the original observation remains valid. Every time there's a long block pages of posts pop up talking about how something must be broken, or Slush is playing games, or whatnot. It won't change of course, I imagine this conversation will die down soon until the next time we get a 99%+ block, at which point new people will be talking about how Slush broke the pool or is stealing everyone's money.

For those who have seen it all and got the t-shirt, I suppose it would be in order to simply ignore those "annoying" posts accussing Slush of everything under the sun for the sake of their sanity. Barring which, be prepared to batten down for the storm if you talk down to the ignorants ...

LOL

You can call me Mr. Ignorance from now own, pekatete.

Sure, it could very well be a string of bad luck at the moment.

I understand perfectly well about GHash adding more of their own miners, as well as "UNKNOWNS" adding more hashing power, which in turn would affect Slush's ability to find more blocks by decreasing Slush's percentage of over all hashing power from lets say 6% to 5 % of the total BTC mining network.

It could very well be a string of bad luck.

Forgive me IF my comment about Slush's back end possibly being down "maybe" [we'll never know].  I'll stop making comments like those.

With that aside, I still think I made the correct decision to mine elsewhere, as I'm BETTING THE LUCK elsewhere will be a little better than at Slush today.  When I play Texas No Limit Holdem, I PLAY FOR LUCK, so to speak.  That is pretty much the same thing I'm doing when I mine.  However, I'm not a hopper, in the sense of using a program to quickly switch from one pool to another.  It's like I wake up each day and wonder, "Which pool am I putting my bets on TODAY to be lucky."

By the way, it won't be long before I have a "T-Shirt" as well.  So, bare with me.  LOL

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October 15, 2014, 05:23:40 PM
 #19334

Offsubject, anyone else experience very slow transaction conformation times in the last couple of hours? I've made 3 purchases from 2 different wallets and none have confirmed at all. SLOW today!!!

Listen: meat beat manifesto ~ Edge of no control (pt.1)
Read:"He who controls the past controls the future. He who controls the present controls the past." ~ George Orwell
Think: http://unenumerated.blogspot.com/2014/12/the-dawn-of-trustworthy-computing.html
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October 15, 2014, 05:31:52 PM
 #19335

Sure, it could very well be a string of bad luck at the moment.

I understand perfectly well about GHash adding more of their own miners, as well as "UNKNOWNS" adding more hashing power, which in turn would affect Slush's ability to find more blocks by decreasing Slush's percentage of over all hashing power from lets say 6% to 5 % of the total BTC mining network.

It could very well be a string of bad luck.
That's not how it works. The only thing that affects the number of blocks found (besides luck) is the pool hashrate and the current difficulty. Other pools could add an Exahash/s of equipment and it wouldn't affect how many blocks Slush mines (at least until the difficulty adjusts). Conversely, every other pool could cease to exist and the only thing mining on the network is Slush's ~10PH/s, and we would still find one block every five hours or so.

tl;dr - Luck or hashrate at other pools makes no difference in the short term. The only thing that matters is the current hashrate and difficulty.
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October 15, 2014, 05:35:55 PM
 #19336

Offsubject, anyone else experience very slow transaction conformation times in the last couple of hours? I've made 3 purchases from 2 different wallets and none have confirmed at all. SLOW today!!!

Actually, that happened to me 2 days ago from my last payout from slush. I did eventually confirm, but it took unusually long to.

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October 15, 2014, 05:39:27 PM
 #19337


tl;dr - Luck or hashrate at other pools makes no difference in the short term. The only thing that matters is the current hashrate and difficulty.

Do you care to throw some light on how Slush computes their pool luck then? Surely, network hash-rate is a factor (not mathematically speaking, but could also be!).

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October 15, 2014, 05:53:52 PM
 #19338


tl;dr - Luck or hashrate at other pools makes no difference in the short term. The only thing that matters is the current hashrate and difficulty.

Do you care to throw some light on how Slush computes their pool luck then? Surely, network hash-rate is a factor (not mathematically speaking, but could also be!).
I'm not sure exactly what he uses for his time averaging. Network hashrate is a factor in that it will eventually affect difficulty, but it's not a factor in and of itself. All that matters is the number of shares submitted, and the current difficulty which only changes once every ~14 days.

On a per block basis, you can just use diff/shares. If you want an average over a few blocks, just use #blocks * difficulty / total shares.
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October 15, 2014, 06:02:37 PM
 #19339


tl;dr - Luck or hashrate at other pools makes no difference in the short term. The only thing that matters is the current hashrate and difficulty.

Do you care to throw some light on how Slush computes their pool luck then? Surely, network hash-rate is a factor (not mathematically speaking, but could also be!).

I know I'm not the one the question was pointed towards.  However, I did mention this in several other posts in the past.

The hash rate has EVERYTHING to do with it.  They would have to have a program that keeps up with the hourly total pool hash rate in the same way they  have a program that computes the hourly hash rate of individual workers.

FIRST, lets say slush averaged 8 PH/s TOTAL hash rate from 00:01am at the beginning of the day till 24:00pm at the end of the day.  

At present difficulty [35,002,482,026], that is approximately 5 hours, 13 minutes time for each block found (can vary greatly depending on our luck).  

To be at 100% Luck for THAT 24 HOUR DAY [while averaging 8 PH/s for the entire day] we would need to find [24 hours divided by 5.21666667 hours] = 4.60063897 blocks for it to be 100% LUCK for THAT 24 hour period.  Hence, you hardly ever see exactly 100% for 1 day luck.  WHY?  Cause we can't find 60% of a block.  We can only find a "whole" block.  You might see 100% for 7 day or 1 month, but not 1 day luck.  That would be a rare occasion indeed.

Slush's "Luck" percentage for 1 day can also vary every hour IF they are computing this based on an "hourly" hash rate average.

The source I use to determine how many blocks on average that can be found for a "given" amount of hash rate is located at the following address:

http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/   IF it does not load when you first navigate there, refresh the page and it should appear.  You enter in the difficulty and the hash rate.  No need to enter in the other data unless you are interested in your own profitability factor.  The only thing we are concerned with is "How long it takes the pool to find a block on average for a given amount of hash rate of the pool."

The following answer was given for 8000 Th/s (8 Ph/s):

Difficulty   35,002,482,026.00
Mining Factor 100   0.00 USD/24h@100MHash/s as in these charts
Average generation time for a block (solo)   5 hours, 13 minutes (can vary greatly depending on your luck)
Hardware break even   1 day
Net profit first time frame   3890503.64 USD

You can come up with these figures for ANY pool you desire by first entering in an approximate average hash rate of the pool.  Then, if you like, you can determine the average payout for your personal hash rate at that pool by staying at the pool for 24 hours.  Once you know your payout based on shares [considering if the hash rate is the same average as your previous calculation], you can multiply the average pay out by the average number of blocks found for each day.  Then multiply that answer by 30 days and you have an average payout for a month for that pool.

Example:

[Slush] 4.60063897 blocks x .01452471 average shares with 4.67 TH/s = 0.06682295 BTC average each day.  That would be 2.00468841 BTC in 30 days (1 month).

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October 15, 2014, 06:25:57 PM
 #19340

I know I'm not the one the question was pointed towards.  However, I did mention this in several other posts in the past.

The hash rate has EVERYTHING to do with it.  They would have to have a program that keeps up with the hourly total pool hash rate in the same way they  have a program that computes the hourly hash rate of individual workers.

FIRST, lets say slush averaged 8 PH/s TOTAL hash rate from 00:01am at the beginning of the day till 24:00pm at the end of the day.  

At present difficulty [35,002,482,026], that is approximately 5 hours, 13 minutes time for each block found (can vary greatly depending on our luck).  

To be at 100% Luck for THAT 24 HOUR DAY [while averaging 8 PH/s for the entire day] we would need to find [24 hours divided by 5.21666667 hours] = 4.60063897 blocks for it to be 100% LUCK for THAT 24 hour period.  Hence, you hardly ever see exactly 100% for 1 day luck.  WHY?  Cause we can't find 60% of a block.  We can only find a "whole" block.  You might see 100% for 7 day or 1 month, but not 1 day luck.  That would be a rare occasion indeed.

Slush's "Luck" percentage for 1 day can also vary every hour IF they are computing this based on an "hourly" hash rate average.

The source I use to determine how many blocks on average that can be found for a "given" amount of hash rate is located at the following address:

http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/   IF it does not load when you first navigate there, refresh the page and it should appear.  You enter in the difficulty and the hash rate.  No need to enter in the other data unless you are interested in your own profitability factor.  The only thing we are concerned with is "How long it takes the pool to find a block on average for a given amount of hash rate of the pool."

The following answer was given for 8000 Th/s (8 Ph/s):

Difficulty   35,002,482,026.00
Mining Factor 100   0.00 USD/24h@100MHash/s as in these charts
Average generation time for a block (solo)   5 hours, 13 minutes (can vary greatly depending on your luck)
Hardware break even   1 day
Net profit first time frame   3890503.64 USD
You're looking at it backwards. Slush has no way of knowing what the hashrate pointed at his pool is. All he can see is the number of shares he has received, and then he infers the hashrate from that. He doesn't need to do that though other than as a convenience to users that he just added in the last couple months. All he needs to calculate luck is the number of shares, the number of blocks found, and the difficulty.
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