ASICMINER Speculation Thread

[mechs]

almost hit 12%, folks!

It is 9% at the moment - where you getting your #s from?
http://blockchain.info/pools

[hammurabi]

almost hit 12%, folks!

It is 9% at the moment - where you getting your #s from?
http://blockchain.info/pools

Must be from here:
http://www.asicminercharts.com/live/
11.8% now.

[velacreations]

almost hit 12%, folks!

It is 9% at the moment - where you getting your #s from?
http://blockchain.info/pools

click on the 48 hour or 4 day, don't trust the 24 hour, too much variance.

but also, http://www.asicminercharts.com/live/

[mechs]

I posted 2 week ago we would see 3 before 5 and we did.  Now my guess, we stay between 2.6 - 3.4 until next Wednesday.  Too many speculator under-water who will keep this stock down by selling on any move up without real news.
Good news is that ASICMiner no longer priced for perfection.  Next dividend or some news on impressive new hardware before next wednesday only things to move this stock significantly either way. I cannot guess where it will go at this point.  However, if no news by next wednesday and a another dividend under .02 and we will see 2.5BTC.  A strong dividend close to .03 will push us to 3.6 - 3.8.

[freedomno1]

Friedcat posted go to main thread  
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg2984489#msg2984489

Update

We have collected several shareholders' questions for answering.

Could we have an official live hashrate meter from ASICMINER?
We have an internal one, mainly for troubleshooting when some of the racks going down. The hashrate meter based on the blocks mined reflects more of the real speed (plus luck of course). We will buy more bandwidth before making it accessible by the whole internet. It also requires more commitment in maintenance.

For more transparency, is it possible to share a wallet address for depositing income from ASICMINER hardware sales?
We use a different deposit address for each payment transaction. But a centralized nexus address is good. Then people could see how the funds are separated as dividends and expenses.

Besides mining, hardware sales, and franchising, are there any other potential sources of revenue?
There are many possible ones considered, but none can support serious sound business model based on a 1-2billion dollar total market value of Bitcoin: selling patents, offering solution for mining farm construction, assembly service, etc.

Why has the hashrate dropped the past weeks?
It dropped in different few days. Some of them are internal hardware/network glitches, some of them are luck based. We haven't identified any form of DDOS attacks recently though.

There hasn't been a huge hardware dividend payoff: is it because of reduced margins, or delays?
Because we are collecting funds to get ready for the exponentially increased devices to be assembled in September and October.

How are things going regarding your business plan? Did you account for the sudden network hashrate increase? How is the international expansion of ASICminer coming along?
The business plan is unchanged. The network hashrate increase was still under our projection. The total hash target originally set for the end of this year would probably achieved earlier.
The ASICMiner expansion via franchising is still much within China border. The internationally deployed portion will dominate when the gain of operation cost outweigh the delay and cost of international shipping/assembling abroad.

For self-egotiscial purposes
Vycid Owned for now  

[velacreations]

I posted 2 week ago we would see 3 before 5 and we did.  Now my guess, we stay between 2.6 - 3.4 until next Wednesday.  Too many speculator under-water who will keep this stock down by selling on any move up without real news.
Good news is that ASICMiner no longer priced for perfection.  Next dividend or some news on impressive new hardware before next wednesday only things to move this stock significantly either way. I cannot guess where it will go at this point.  However, if no news by next wednesday and a another dividend under .02 and we will see 2.5BTC.  A strong dividend close to .03 will push us to 3.6 - 3.8.

I agree, you were right on the 3 vs 5 prediction.

The only places I disagree here are the following:

1. News was literally just posted by FC.

2. If we have a .03 div, we'll pass 4.

[eb3full]

I'm the one who's out 25% of what I sold today and I still feel bad for Vycid. ahahahahahahaha

[velacreations]

I'm the one who's out 25% of what I sold today and I still feel bad for Vycid. ahahahahahahaha

  at least you still have your sense of humor!

[deltanine]

I'm the one who's out 25% of what I sold today and I still feel bad for Vycid. ahahahahahahaha

Don't think like that!  Congrats on locking in some profit at 240x ROI!

[eb3full]

Don't think like that!  Congrats on locking in some profit at 240x ROI!

Yep, these bitcoins will come in handy when BTCUSD pumps up more.

[mechs]

I posted 2 week ago we would see 3 before 5 and we did.  Now my guess, we stay between 2.6 - 3.4 until next Wednesday.  Too many speculator under-water who will keep this stock down by selling on any move up without real news.
Good news is that ASICMiner no longer priced for perfection.  Next dividend or some news on impressive new hardware before next wednesday only things to move this stock significantly either way. I cannot guess where it will go at this point.  However, if no news by next wednesday and a another dividend under .02 and we will see 2.5BTC.  A strong dividend close to .03 will push us to 3.6 - 3.8.

I agree, you were right on the 3 vs 5 prediction.

The only places I disagree here are the following:

1. News was literally just posted by FC.

2. If we have a .03 div, we'll pass 4.

The truth is these are all short-term educated trading guesses based on unknowable future events.  Long-term (well long-term being 4-6 months which us long term in bitcoin world) this stock will either be below 2BTC or above 6BTC by January.  If they crank out some 22nm tech ahead of the competition, they will shoot up exponentally - 8BTC even possible.  If competitors such as cointerra, hashfast, BFL (yeah right!) release their tech earlier or even at the same time, ASICMiner will drop like a rock with support being potentially very low - below 2BTC.

[freedomno1]

I'm the one who's out 25% of what I sold today and I still feel bad for Vycid. ahahahahahahaha

Ah eb3 + 1 + 1

[velacreations]

The truth is these are all short-term educated trading guesses based on unknowable future events.  Long-term (well long-term being 4-6 months which us long term in bitcoin world) this stock will either be below 2BTC or above 6BTC by January.  If they crank out some 22nm tech ahead of the competition, they will shoot up exponentally - 8BTC even possible.  If competitors such as cointerra, hashfast, BFL (yeah right!) release their tech earlier or even at the same time, ASICMiner will drop like a rock with support being potentially very low - below 2BTC.

I think the next phase of bitcoin mining will have more to do with cost than first mover or fancy tech, to be honest.  The market here is the hobby/individual miner, not huge mining farms (though that can be lucrative, too).  For that market, it's cost per hashrate.  Power is less of an issue, because of scale.  As long as USD/BTC maintains a decent value, I think the market will value cost over efficiency, leading edge, and first availability.

If AM can beat the competition in terms of availability AND cost, then nothing can stop them.

FC just said that they have been withholding profits for production in Sep/Oct of lots of units.  To me, that means AM is focused on volume, which should make the cost attractive to the market.

[BitCsByBit]

So there was no reason for panic selling after all.

It is great to see that the "epic" dividends everyone was expecting this week are going to be used to create extra hash rate.

It is beyond me why anyone would question friedcat's abilities to keep moving forward?  

[freedomno1]

The truth is these are all short-term educated trading guesses based on unknowable future events.  Long-term (well long-term being 4-6 months which us long term in bitcoin world) this stock will either be below 2BTC or above 6BTC by January.  If they crank out some 22nm tech ahead of the competition, they will shoot up exponentally - 8BTC even possible.  If competitors such as cointerra, hashfast, BFL (yeah right!) release their tech earlier or even at the same time, ASICMiner will drop like a rock with support being potentially very low - below 2BTC.

I think the next phase of bitcoin mining will have more to do with cost than first mover or fancy tech, to be honest.  The market here is the hobby/individual miner, not huge mining farms (though that can be lucrative, too).  For that market, it's cost per hashrate.  Power is less of an issue, because of scale.  As long as USD/BTC maintains a decent value, I think the market will value cost over efficiency, leading edge, and first availability.

If AM can beat the competition in terms of availability AND cost, then nothing can stop them.

FC just said that they have been withholding profits for production in Sep/Oct of lots of units.  To me, that means AM is focused on volume, which should make the cost attractive to the market.

I agree with you on that but spec wise they are pretty competitive found an interesting data piece comparing units
It is missing a few companies though but specs aren't out yet I believe regarding those companies

So there was no reason for panic selling after all.

It is great to see that the "epic" dividends everyone was expecting this week are going to be used to create extra hash rate.

It is beyond me why anyone would question friedcat's abilities to keep moving forward?  

One of us needs to play Devils Advocate now and then

[velacreations]

I agree with you on that but spec wise they are pretty competitive found an interesting data piece comparing units

I wish I could sort that for "actual devices that exist"

[velacreations]

So there was no reason for panic selling after all.

It is great to see that the "epic" dividends everyone was expecting this week are going to be used to create extra hash rate.

It is beyond me why anyone would question friedcat's abilities to keep moving forward?  

maybe not just extra hash rate, but extra hardware, too. It's good to see reinvestment, and in the past, very little reinvestment meant BIG payoffs later.

[btcbot]

So there was no reason for panic selling after all.

It is great to see that the "epic" dividends everyone was expecting this week are going to be used to create extra hash rate.

It is beyond me why anyone would question friedcat's abilities to keep moving forward?  

maybe not just extra hash rate, but extra hardware, too. It's good to see reinvestment, and in the past, very little reinvestment meant BIG payoffs later.

When we were getting those dividends close to .04 a month or so ago, I found it kind of frightening.  I began to wonder if Friedcat was some type of fanatic about profit-sharing and wasn't creating a diligent safety net and setting aside BTC for inevitable down days and unforseen costs.  This is the best possible explanation I could have seen. 

[btcbot]

I began to wonder if Friedcat was some type of fanatic about profit-sharing and wasn't creating a diligent safety net and setting aside BTC for inevitable down days and unforseen costs.  This is the best possible explanation I could have seen.  

Freidcat owns almost 200k shares, so that is not the case at all.

I understand what you're getting at, but it still doesn't prove that the gigantic dividends weren't some form of egalitarian experiment which could lead to disaster.  

EDIT: One thing that has led to price volatility, enhanced by a market made of n00bs, is the differences in weekly divs.  It might be preferable to create an expectation of steadily increasing, or mildly fluctuating divs than these mountains and valleys of 'success.'

[Lohoris]

I began to wonder if Friedcat was some type of fanatic about profit-sharing and wasn't creating a diligent safety net and setting aside BTC for inevitable down days and unforseen costs.  This is the best possible explanation I could have seen.  

Freidcat owns almost 200k shares, so that is not the case at all.

All of them himself?
Source?
Aren't you getting confused with the Bitfountain's shares?