ASICMINER Speculation Thread

[VeeMiner]

div: 0.01355608

very decent div, considering the circumstances

[velacreations]

div: 0.01355608

very decent div, considering the circumstances

I agree.  I think we'll see the share price inch back up near 2.4-2.5 with this.  There's still a lot of hardware revenue that wasn't included in this div, and they are still holding back, so actual div was likely closer to .02.

[mechs]

div: 0.01355608

very decent div, considering the circumstances

I agree.  I think we'll see the share price inch back up near 2.4-2.5 with this.  There's still a lot of hardware revenue that wasn't included in this div, and they are still holding back, so actual div was likely closer to .02.

The dividend irrelevan right now.  All that matters is the network hash percentage and when they can get their gen 2 hardware out.  They need to beat the competition.

[Vexual]

Either a large scale BTC buyer owns that address,  or FC hasn't started using his Gen 2 funds. As far as I know, no 55nm-capable foundry accepts bitcoin.

Not to mention he's playing with fire by keeping future fiat liabilities in Bitcoin in the first place. That's like a gold mining company hoarding gold bars to save up for a new mine that they had promised to investors.

Bitcoin -> IC -> Bitcoin
Thats what friedcat does.
The arrows are mysterious, but I doubt you could do better.

[binaryFate]

Either a large scale BTC buyer owns that address,  or FC hasn't started using his Gen 2 funds. As far as I know, no 55nm-capable foundry accepts bitcoin.

Not to mention he's playing with fire by keeping future fiat liabilities in Bitcoin in the first place. That's like a gold mining company hoarding gold bars to save up for a new mine that they had promised to investors.

Bitcoin -> IC -> Bitcoin
Thats what friedcat does.
The arrows are mysterious, but I doubt you could do better.

What's IC?

[Vexual]

Integrated Circuit

[binaryFate]

Ah, ok!
I see it even like that then 

Bitcoin -> IC -> Bitcoin

[velacreations]

The dividend irrelevan right now.  All that matters is the network hash percentage and when they can get their gen 2 hardware out.  They need to beat the competition.

for the mid term, I agree, but for the next few weeks, dividends certainly matter.  And when FC has enough for reinvestment, divs will likely see a boost.

And I bet we'll see a slight increase in share price, too.

[Vycid]

Either a large scale BTC buyer owns that address,  or FC hasn't started using his Gen 2 funds. As far as I know, no 55nm-capable foundry accepts bitcoin.

Not to mention he's playing with fire by keeping future fiat liabilities in Bitcoin in the first place. That's like a gold mining company hoarding gold bars to save up for a new mine that they had promised to investors.

Bitcoin -> IC -> Bitcoin
Thats what friedcat does.
The arrows are mysterious, but I doubt you could do better.

Well, if I was going to try and do better,  I'd probably start by spending the bitcoins I collected with the intention of spending.

[velacreations]

Well, if I was going to try and do better,  I'd probably start by spending the bitcoins I collected with the intention of spending.

we don't know that those are what he intends to spend.

he might be saving up for more.  how much does 10 PT/s cost?

[chriswilmer]

Well, if I was going to try and do better,  I'd probably start by spending the bitcoins I collected with the intention of spending.

we don't know that those are what he intends to spend.

he might be saving up for more.  how much does 10 PT/s cost?

It could be collateral. If you are bullish on bitcoin (which I am sure Friedcat is), you would probably want to borrow in RMB and hold bitcoin if you can.

[Vycid]

Well, if I was going to try and do better,  I'd probably start by spending the bitcoins I collected with the intention of spending.

we don't know that those are what he intends to spend.

he might be saving up for more.  how much does 10 PT/s cost?

It could be collateral. If you are bullish on bitcoin (which I am sure Friedcat is), you would probably want to borrow in RMB and hold bitcoin if you can.

No bank would accept bitcoin as collateral on the equivalent of a $1M+ loan, especially when the revenue for repayment ALSO depends on the stability of BTC/USD.

[Vexual]

Well, if I was going to try and do better,  I'd probably start by spending the bitcoins I collected with the intention of spending.

You think you could improve friedcat's business? You are delusional.

[Vycid]

Well, if I was going to try and do better,  I'd probably start by spending the bitcoins I collected with the intention of spending.

You think you could improve friedcat's business? You are delusional.

Either you are consistently and intentionally misinterpreting very clear statements,  or you have the reading comprehension of a first-grader.

[Vexual]

Well, if I was going to try and do better,  I'd probably start by spending the bitcoins I collected with the intention of spending.

You think you could improve friedcat's business? You are delusional.

Either you are consistently and intentionally misinterpreting very clear statements,  or you have the reading comprehension of a first-grader.

What are you going to spend them on genius? You have next to no knowledge of the development and manufacturing plans.
So by trying to do better you would not be attempting to improve the business?

[Vycid]

Well, if I was going to try and do better,  I'd probably start by spending the bitcoins I collected with the intention of spending.

You think you could improve friedcat's business? You are delusional.

Either you are consistently and intentionally misinterpreting very clear statements,  or you have the reading comprehension of a first-grader.

What are you going to spend them on genius? You have next to no knowledge of the development and manufacturing plans.
So by trying to do better you would not be attempting to improve the business?

I actually happen to be a semiconductor process engineer, so watch your claims here.

Foundries usually expect up-front payment from low volume, one-off customers like Friedcat. Assuming he's taped out his design and verified e-beam samples, he needs to open his checkbook for photomask sets, at the very least. He probably needs to pay for the chip batches also.

If he hasn't verified his e-beam samples, I suspect he needs to do so within the next couple of weeks to meet a December deployment deadline. If he's skipping e-beam testing, all the more reason he should be ordering the masks already.

Then there's the matter of assembly.  Maybe he's got some buddies doing his assembly, but if so I'm a little surprised regarding his hubris about price advantage ("invincible"), since anyone could get the same price simply by being a businessman in China.

If he is doing it in-house, then he needs pick and place machines and reflow ovens and so on, because he needs to vastly increase production. That kind of equipment costs money.

[Vexual]

I actually happen to be a semiconductor process engineer, so watch your claims here.

Foundries usually expect up-front payment from low volume, one-off customers like Friedcat. Assuming he's taped out his design and verified e-beam samples, he needs to open his checkbook for photomask sets, at the very least. He probably needs to pay for the chip batches also.

If he hasn't verified his e-beam samples, I suspect he needs to do so within the next couple of weeks to meet a December deployment deadline. If he's skipping e-beam testing, all the more reason he should be ordering the maska already.

Then there's the matter of assembly. Maybe he's got some buddies doing his assembly, but if so I'm a little surprised regarding his hubris about price advantage ("invincible"), since anyone could get the same price simply by being a businessman in China.

If he is doing it in-house, then he needs pick and place machines and reflow ovens and so on, because he needs to vastly increase production. That kind of equipment costs money.

So by trying to do better you would not be attempting to improve the business?

Can you explain whats wrong with my comprehension here?

[Vycid]

I actually happen to be a semiconductor process engineer, so watch your claims here.

Foundries usually expect up-front payment from low volume, one-off customers like Friedcat. Assuming he's taped out his design and verified e-beam samples, he needs to open his checkbook for photomask sets, at the very least. He probably needs to pay for the chip batches also.

If he hasn't verified his e-beam samples, I suspect he needs to do so within the next couple of weeks to meet a December deployment deadline. If he's skipping e-beam testing, all the more reason he should be ordering the maska already.

Then there's the matter of assembly. Maybe he's got some buddies doing his assembly, but if so I'm a little surprised regarding his hubris about price advantage ("invincible"), since anyone could get the same price simply by being a businessman in China.

If he is doing it in-house, then he needs pick and place machines and reflow ovens and so on, because he needs to vastly increase production. That kind of equipment costs money.

So by trying to do better you would not be attempting to improve the business?

Can you explain whats wrong with my comprehansion here?

Sure thing.

IF those things are not happening, there will be no full-scale Gen 2 by December. That would fit the fact he doesn't seem to be spending money.

Are we understanding any better?

[Vexual]

You misunderstand the clarification I'm looing for. Why was I wrong to assume by trying to do better, that meant improving the business?

[Vexual]

To reiterate, you have no knowlegde of what ASICMINER has paid for, and where they are at with development, so why suggest they need to start trading coins to pay invoices? I think friedcat knows his business better than you, despite whatever semiconductor work you have done in the past.