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Question: Would you let AI select your sports bets?
Yes - 37 (27%)
No - 92 (67.2%)
AI? What’s that? - 8 (5.8%)
Total Voters: 137

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Author Topic: [POLL] Using AI to predict outcomes  (Read 9761 times)
beerlover
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July 04, 2023, 06:09:22 AM
 #961

I still haven't found anyone using AI like this but I'm sure people must be doing it.  Is anyone aware of any reddit posts or other places that people may be discussing different prompts they are using to try and do this sort of gambling?  I'm very tempted to do some sort of thread documenting the success of AI in gambling decisions, but so far I haven't found a good method to do so.  Hopefully I get it figured out before the NBA season starts again.  It would be cool to start doing some fun stuff with AI when that time rolls around again.
The thing is that, at least with OpenAI, the models are trained with old data, years old sometimes. So, you can't realistically use the ready models to ask for a prediction of a game that is happening soon.

The most important data, recent one, is not available in the model yet.

Maybe there are other models trained specifically to do this, including the latest results, and news, etc, but I haven't seen them yet. Maybe people are using them privately, which would make sense.
The most important criteria about "open"AI is that it's open source, well at least a lot of it. It means that you could build your own AI with a good foundation. A lot of people built a lot of AI products by simply getting the base code of openAI and then improved on it or shifted it to whatever they want. With that regard, we could have a company or just some people who will end up downloading that, and then they will end up doing something much better with it as well.

They could put all the information in there and they will do very well. I am not saying that it will be easy setup, but it will certainly be a good period for sure. I think it will be a sad moment to see when AI is used for risky stuff that may end up making you lose money, but it's still good to see it improve at least.

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July 04, 2023, 11:03:03 AM
 #962

I still haven't found anyone using AI like this but I'm sure people must be doing it.  Is anyone aware of any reddit posts or other places that people may be discussing different prompts they are using to try and do this sort of gambling?  I'm very tempted to do some sort of thread documenting the success of AI in gambling decisions, but so far I haven't found a good method to do so.  Hopefully I get it figured out before the NBA season starts again.  It would be cool to start doing some fun stuff with AI when that time rolls around again.
The thing is that, at least with OpenAI, the models are trained with old data, years old sometimes. So, you can't realistically use the ready models to ask for a prediction of a game that is happening soon.

The most important data, recent one, is not available in the model yet.

Maybe there are other models trained specifically to do this, including the latest results, and news, etc, but I haven't seen them yet. Maybe people are using them privately, which would make sense.
The most important criteria about "open"AI is that it's open source, well at least a lot of it. It means that you could build your own AI with a good foundation. A lot of people built a lot of AI products by simply getting the base code of openAI and then improved on it or shifted it to whatever they want. With that regard, we could have a company or just some people who will end up downloading that, and then they will end up doing something much better with it as well.

They could put all the information in there and they will do very well. I am not saying that it will be easy setup, but it will certainly be a good period for sure. I think it will be a sad moment to see when AI is used for risky stuff that may end up making you lose money, but it's still good to see it improve at least.
OpenAI's openness enables for endless invention and enhancement, limited only by the user's creativity. OpenAI's base code has enabled many innovative and effective AI applications. Its wonderful to think of people or organizations improving this technology to solve big problems. It's like giving someone the keys to knowledge and seeing them discover new possibilities. AI, like any strong technology, may be abused. AI's potential losses in hazardous operations might be worrisome. However, it's development. As we progress, AI ethics need to be strengthened.

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July 04, 2023, 12:06:17 PM
 #963

-snip

And just the same, even it's 99% the remaining percentage can still bring you to lose your bet, remember it's gambling and there are many things that will influence the potential outcome, I see the point where it can be developed and it can find more information but the accuracy especially when dealing in gambling, it's something that only luck can accurately dictate your winning chance.
in the end, from 99% there is still 1% luck left. as we saw when Barcelona played against Celta but Barcelona ended up losing, right?
well, this is an obvious case and maybe if using AI to predict the match AI will favor Barcelona because it is clear that the top team already has the perfect strength to beat Celta but luck of surprise and luck is always present in every sporting match.
so everything still depends on luck just like you said.
While those results happen from time to time it is not common and even casinos can suffer huge losses if someone was crazy enough to take a huge bet on favor of the underdog at the time.

So it is natural that even an AI will struggle to identify and accurately predict those results, still if given enough information about a particular sport and guiding the model in a very careful way I think it should be possible to produce an AI which could predict outcomes with enough accuracy to produce profits.

their profit margin is so high that losing once in a while wouldn't be a problem, probably.
even if they're losing millions, I'd expect online casinos to have an emergency reserve in cases of these issues.

That is expected because they cannot really afford to file a bankruptcy just because of that incident that a random person was just too crazy and bet on the heavy underdog with millions without knowing that the team will actually win and upsets the heavy favorite, I know it's not a first but it's just too awesome to read that kind of stories.

Anyway, the casino/platform surely have their own reserves for cases like that as it's not really everyday that they will have the favor because once in a while, they also know that there is really that person who is just too lucky on that certain day will have crazy bets just because of that factor.

Following that, it's a must for them to have that extra reserve to finance that win, else, they will ruin the business as the demands for paying that lucky gambler will chase them, I agree that casino understand that scenario or the possibility of that situation so they need make sure that the amount can be covered by the allocated amount for their financial expense.

Along the way, once they survive most of the time, it will be covered by those other gamblers who will lose that amount collected from different gamblers who use the services of the casino.

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July 05, 2023, 12:43:07 AM
 #964

OpenAI's openness enables for endless invention and enhancement, limited only by the user's creativity. OpenAI's base code has enabled many innovative and effective AI applications. Its wonderful to think of people or organizations improving this technology to solve big problems. It's like giving someone the keys to knowledge and seeing them discover new possibilities. AI, like any strong technology, may be abused. AI's potential losses in hazardous operations might be worrisome. However, it's development. As we progress, AI ethics need to be strengthened.

The issue is that those attempts to try to limit AI are never going to work, as people will always find a way around them, so as long as someone can get an edge over everyone else then there will always be an incentive for those people to remove those limitations.

And without a doubt there will be people out there which will use AI to try to beat the casinos, unfortunately for them the casinos will do the same, and most likely they will be the ones to come up on top.

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July 05, 2023, 06:30:16 AM
 #965

~snip~
The issue is that those attempts to try to limit AI are never going to work, as people will always find a way around them, so as long as someone can get an edge over everyone else then there will always be an incentive for those people to remove those limitations.

And without a doubt there will be people out there which will use AI to try to beat the casinos, unfortunately for them the casinos will do the same, and most likely they will be the ones to come up on top.

I kinda think in a similar way, but thinking about history, you could say the same about nuclear war.

But we have managed so far to not start a global nuclear war, so I guess the same can be said about AI.

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July 05, 2023, 09:36:24 PM
 #966

~snip~
I have wondered something, as time goes by the AI has learned much more, and the most important thing is that the AI learns in hours to be an expert in anything, in the case of betting on casinos there is still a long way to go, but I don't know how they can do it so that I can be one step ahead of the casino systems knowing that the casino systems have the Provably Fair system and everything that entails to be able to beat it, I think that for now it is not possible, but in the future the AI with the help of quantum pc will not be difficult anymore, and that era may come soon, I always believed that quantum computer will be developed first before AI.

I feel the need to address an error in thinking here: the idea of besting casino systems, even with state-of-the-art AI and quantum computing, is presently just wishful thinking. Casino games, especially the "Provably Fair" ones, are built on statistics and chance. Their essence is randomness - this makes forecasting or swaying the outcomes pretty much a no-go.

Sure, advanced AI can master many things rapidly. But they play by the rules and stay within their coded limits. The idea that AI can outsmart the system defies the randomness and fairness at the heart of these games. While dreaming of AI and quantum tech tipping the scales in our favor sounds nice, it's vital to keep in mind the unpredictability and risk intrinsic to gambling.

Well, I'm just saying this as a possible scenario of what can happen in the future, I think AI things are not developed yet, but in the future they will be, and if quantum computing isn't there, so when? comes out It won't be as advanced as many think, but in the not too distant future when Quantum Computing is a powerhouse along with AI, I think a Randomness-based algorithm like Provably Fair will be easy to read and predict its likely moves. with more ease, randomness is a pretty hard thing to predict, but for these advanced things in the future, it will be a piece of cake.

Well, I'm just saying that the sunsets will be like this and we can't Deny the future, how many thought that AI was just science fiction and that it wasn't going to come stomping like it is now, many believed that the future was not going to come close to something like that, but we already see that these things have come true, and what is missing is much more, it may be in a few years, but it will come, to be honest I thought that for this year things would be much more advanced, but so far they are using an AI that is in Beta mode , I am sure that in other Areas it is much more advanced , let's wait and see, we have to let ourselves be surprised.

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July 06, 2023, 07:25:08 AM
Merited by LUCKMCFLY (1)
 #967

~snip~
Well, I'm just saying this as a possible scenario of what can happen in the future, I think AI things are not developed yet, but in the future they will be, and if quantum computing isn't there, so when? comes out It won't be as advanced as many think, but in the not too distant future when Quantum Computing is a powerhouse along with AI, I think a Randomness-based algorithm like Provably Fair will be easy to read and predict its likely moves. with more ease, randomness is a pretty hard thing to predict, but for these advanced things in the future, it will be a piece of cake.

Well, I'm just saying that the sunsets will be like this and we can't Deny the future, how many thought that AI was just science fiction and that it wasn't going to come stomping like it is now, many believed that the future was not going to come close to something like that, but we already see that these things have come true, and what is missing is much more, it may be in a few years, but it will come, to be honest I thought that for this year things would be much more advanced, but so far they are using an AI that is in Beta mode , I am sure that in other Areas it is much more advanced , let's wait and see, we have to let ourselves be surprised.

Getting quantum random numbers is already old technology.

Back in 2020 Samsung release the Quantum A phone, with a quantum random number generation chipset inside.

“When a user of Galaxy A Quantum sets biometric authentication with ‘SKT 5GX Quantum’ in the SK Pay app, you can see the message ‘SK Pay is protected with SKT 5GX Quantum’ at the top of the smartphone screen when using the app,” the Korean carrier explains, adding that online payments backed by quantum security are coming soon.

In 2021 they released a new version:

Samsung and South Korean carrier SK Telecom have announced the Galaxy Quantum 2, Samsung’s second phone that features built-in quantum cryptography technology for increased security. It’s the follow-up to last year’s Galaxy A Quantum.

And in these 2 years more advances have been made. It's already years old tech.

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July 06, 2023, 08:34:47 AM
 #968

If this is for Sports betting , Yes I will trust AI as they can make a best result in assessing who will win and what would be the possible scores comparing to our estimation and prediction.
but if this is a regular casino that I need to evaluate my opponents facial reaction and body movements?
then that will be other answers if could and also AI is design to beat humanities but this will take long to be happening .









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July 06, 2023, 10:17:56 AM
 #969

If this is for Sports betting , Yes I will trust AI as they can make a best result in assessing who will win and what would be the possible scores comparing to our estimation and prediction.
but if this is a regular casino that I need to evaluate my opponents facial reaction and body movements?
then that will be other answers if could and also AI is design to beat humanities but this will take long to be happening .
This is a regular casino or a different casino that has a different system from the existing casinos because the use of AI in casinos will probably require something to work in casinos.

And if AI can provide valid data for sports betting, it will help us to know who is winning. And our desire to use AI is to win and not have to bother looking for data in selecting his team.

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July 08, 2023, 07:55:38 AM
 #970

If this is for Sports betting , Yes I will trust AI as they can make a best result in assessing who will win and what would be the possible scores comparing to our estimation and prediction.
but if this is a regular casino that I need to evaluate my opponents facial reaction and body movements?
then that will be other answers if could and also AI is design to beat humanities but this will take long to be happening .

The thing is that an AI can at most give you a very accurate odd of something happening, but there is still the fact that casinos have advantage.

Say for example guessing a coin toss result. An AI tells you it's 50/50, the most accurate prediction, but say the casino pays 95c per dollar you bet. In the long run you will lose all your money because of that price advantage, independent of how amazing was the AI prediction.

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July 08, 2023, 08:07:53 AM
 #971

I wonder how long it will be before people start trying to sell AI prompts that they claim will win gambling bets or do this or that… I can imagine a lot of people will be pretending to have the secret sauce when it comes to AI prompts. Especially when it comes to making money on things like gambling and investments.

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July 09, 2023, 08:32:50 AM
 #972

I wonder how long it will be before people start trying to sell AI prompts that they claim will win gambling bets or do this or that… I can imagine a lot of people will be pretending to have the secret sauce when it comes to AI prompts. Especially when it comes to making money on things like gambling and investments.

Well, people have already started creating projects that use ChatGPT to make a sports betting bot: https://github.com/llSourcell/ChatGPT_Sports_Betting_Bot

Not sure if there are paid ones out there, but I'm sure they will start popping up soon as that project is already half a year old.

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July 10, 2023, 08:45:14 AM
 #973


Yes it's true, but it's always like that with skill-based gambling, be it poker, sports betting or whatever. Your probability of winning can be high but your win is never guaranteed. Can AI better than us humans in calculating the probabilities? I think it can. And you are right, it heavily depends on the prompt.

I wouldn't rely too much on AI predictions simply because if it were anywhere to churning out accurate predictions right now, then, we'd have had an influx of new millionaires / billionaires and most bookmarkers would simply go out of business. Maybe for skill-based games rather than sports betting considering the fact that getting recent data to train a model would not be an easy task.

I've always viewed it as a tool to stop some repetitive tasks and it can be best used right now as a tool rather than a standalone system.

Getting all the recent data would definitely be not an easy task. In fact, if you could it, if you could get all the important data, you wouldn't need an AI then. But I think with a proper prompt you could make the AI do the job. The job that would take hours for you could take seconds for the AI to perform. At first creating such a prompt would not be easy. But when it's done, you can use basically the same prompt(with small corrections) all over again.

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July 10, 2023, 09:55:08 AM
 #974


Would you leave gambling decisions up to artificial intelligence? Do you see any potential drawbacks for outsourcing your bets to a software program? Has anyone here tried this yet?

I don't know about other people, but I personally believe that I cannot gamble using artificial intelligence; instead, I utilize my own thoughts and whatever gambling-related analyses that may be available. I don't believe in utilizing AI in gambling, thus even in the poll I chose no because I don't think it will be in favour, in my opinion. If I use AI to predict games seriously, my mind won't be at rest like it is when I use my own ideas in gambling.

However, the reality remains that people have been gambling and winning for a long time without the introduction of artificial intelligence, therefore I don't think utilizing AI will be advantageous; rather, using conventional analysis in gambling will be more advantageous, and using AI will carry more risk than when you use your own idea, because I don't really believe in it.

R


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July 11, 2023, 12:28:45 AM
Last edit: July 17, 2023, 05:30:23 AM by wxa7115
 #975


Would you leave gambling decisions up to artificial intelligence? Do you see any potential drawbacks for outsourcing your bets to a software program? Has anyone here tried this yet?

I don't know about other people, but I personally believe that I cannot gamble using artificial intelligence; instead, I utilize my own thoughts and whatever gambling-related analyses that may be available. I don't believe in utilizing AI in gambling, thus even in the poll I chose no because I don't think it will be in favour, in my opinion. If I use AI to predict games seriously, my mind won't be at rest like it is when I use my own ideas in gambling.

However, the reality remains that people have been gambling and winning for a long time without the introduction of artificial intelligence, therefore I don't think utilizing AI will be advantageous; rather, using conventional analysis in gambling will be more advantageous, and using AI will carry more risk than when you use your own idea, because I don't really believe in it.
If you do not want to make use of such tool then no one can make you do so, however it is clear that gamblers in general will try, an AI is just a tool and while you can live without it, if the benefits that it offers are high enough then it is clear that it will become massively used.

Personally I think that if at some point a gambler develops an AI like this and eventually they get banned by casinos due to the edge they get, eventually this software may make it to the hands of gamblers all over the world, and if that is the case then you will find yourself at a massive disadvantage, compared to those which are willing to use such tool.

.
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July 16, 2023, 01:15:05 PM
 #976

~ Personally I think that if at some point a gambler develops an AI like this and eventually they get banned by casinos due to the edge they get, eventually this software may make it to the hands of gamblers all over the world, and if that is the case then you will find yourself at a massive disadvantage, compared to those which are willing to use such tool.

How can you ban something like this? Although, maybe we see how to use AI to predict outcomes differently? I see it like this. You promt it to search for the needed info, like injuries of the main players, health and legal issues, their probable replacement, everything that affect the outcome of the game, and then you ask whether making a bet with a certain odds makes sense, right? And you either accept its advice or you don't. How can you ban such an adviser?

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July 16, 2023, 10:22:09 PM
 #977

~ Personally I think that if at some point a gambler develops an AI like this and eventually they get banned by casinos due to the edge they get, eventually this software may make it to the hands of gamblers all over the world, and if that is the case then you will find yourself at a massive disadvantage, compared to those which are willing to use such tool.

How can you ban something like this? Although, maybe we see how to use AI to predict outcomes differently? I see it like this. You promt it to search for the needed info, like injuries of the main players, health and legal issues, their probable replacement, everything that affect the outcome of the game, and then you ask whether making a bet with a certain odds makes sense, right? And you either accept its advice or you don't. How can you ban such an adviser?

In this matter, I mean if you'll going to use the power of AI in this manner then there's no way that it will be ban, and probably this is a good use of an AI system requesting access or information with the details regarding to what are the current stats and the injury list of certain teams or what are the information regarding the overall performances of each individual or players that you are aiming to place your bet.

And on that last note regarding to whether to follow the recommendation or not, it's still you that in control so there's nothing that I can see that it will be ban, still human knowledge but with the help of AI to provide additional information.

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July 17, 2023, 05:36:37 AM
 #978

~ Personally I think that if at some point a gambler develops an AI like this and eventually they get banned by casinos due to the edge they get, eventually this software may make it to the hands of gamblers all over the world, and if that is the case then you will find yourself at a massive disadvantage, compared to those which are willing to use such tool.

How can you ban something like this? Although, maybe we see how to use AI to predict outcomes differently? I see it like this. You promt it to search for the needed info, like injuries of the main players, health and legal issues, their probable replacement, everything that affect the outcome of the game, and then you ask whether making a bet with a certain odds makes sense, right? And you either accept its advice or you don't. How can you ban such an adviser?
While on the surface it may seem that it is impossible to catch a gambler making use of such technology, I have no doubts casinos could develop a way to do so.

For example they have the data of tens of thousands of users on their servers, then they could develop a statistical model which indicates which users are not using such tool and which users are suspicious of doing so, and we have something similar to this already, when ChatGPT was developed many feared that students will cheat to write their reports, but soon enough tools were developed to catch the cheaters, and I suppose a similar tool could be developed for a gambling AI.

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July 19, 2023, 02:26:22 PM
 #979

~ Personally I think that if at some point a gambler develops an AI like this and eventually they get banned by casinos due to the edge they get, eventually this software may make it to the hands of gamblers all over the world, and if that is the case then you will find yourself at a massive disadvantage, compared to those which are willing to use such tool.

How can you ban something like this? Although, maybe we see how to use AI to predict outcomes differently? I see it like this. You promt it to search for the needed info, like injuries of the main players, health and legal issues, their probable replacement, everything that affect the outcome of the game, and then you ask whether making a bet with a certain odds makes sense, right? And you either accept its advice or you don't. How can you ban such an adviser?

if the calculations are made offline let's say and a human applies the bets without software then you simply can't
you could let's say ban softwares and automations but there's no way to ban like an adviser be it a human or an AI one, doesn't matter

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July 19, 2023, 04:37:09 PM
 #980

~ Personally I think that if at some point a gambler develops an AI like this and eventually they get banned by casinos due to the edge they get, eventually this software may make it to the hands of gamblers all over the world, and if that is the case then you will find yourself at a massive disadvantage, compared to those which are willing to use such tool.
How can you ban something like this? Although, maybe we see how to use AI to predict outcomes differently? I see it like this. You promt it to search for the needed info, like injuries of the main players, health and legal issues, their probable replacement, everything that affect the outcome of the game, and then you ask whether making a bet with a certain odds makes sense, right? And you either accept its advice or you don't. How can you ban such an adviser?

if the calculations are made offline let's say and a human applies the bets without software then you simply can't
you could let's say ban softwares and automations but there's no way to ban like an adviser be it a human or an AI one, doesn't matter
It just depends on the gambler's decision to accept the adviser's advice or use the results of his analysis. But usually, if one way has been proven to give win, it will make people interested in trying it because they want to see that success or win come to them. But if that one way is not proven, they will not try it even though maybe the advice from the advisor is already good and has a higher chance. This is about the psychology of gamblers from seeing the results obtained by other gamblers who have used it. If the results are good, they are interested in trying it. But if they don't, they won't want to try it.

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