Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

[miscreanity]

author argues gold and btc do not correllate (in fact negative 0.4 coeff), but BTC follows USDX with a 3 day lag (with a 0.89 correlation coefficient)

Paper gold and Bitcoin started separating early in the year. I still think it's likely that Bitcoin is a reasonable proxy for physical gold market valuation. Western outflow combined with similar magnitude eastern and central bank demand would create a similarly stagnant price period.

And gold is effectively cash...

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[Melbustus]

...
And gold is effectively cash...

It's not, though. And maybe that's the crux of your disagreement with cypher.

Gold *used to be* effectively cash. And in a world without crypto, maybe the point would be moot because it would *still* be the only thing resembling ideal money that had a limited supply. But this world now does have crypto, which actually *is* ideal money for the modern world; all of gold's good properties, minus the real Achilles-heel for modern times (tangibility).

So, now, gold is not "effectively cash". Far from it. That has huge long-term implications. But historical inertia does indeed take time to change, so I, for one, have no idea what happens to gold short/medium-term.

[cypherdoc]

Review my comment regarding backdrafts.

why should i?  you've been wrong for so long, my eyeballs hurt.

you've been wrong on silver for over 2 yrs, wrong on gold coming up on 2 yrs (since i started Gold: I smell a Trap on 8/9/11.

anyone listening to you has lost 33% on their gold bullion and a mind boggling 81% on their miners over that time period.  

you used to be their champion.  where'd all those boys go?

edit:  silver bullion is down 61%!

[cypherdoc]

"The universality of the Handicap Principle in biology should be enough to make one suspect that a protocol which does not impose costs on its users invite abuse."

this is precisely why Ripple will fail and why Bitcoin will flourish.

http://themisescircle.org/blog/2013/06/24/the-proof-of-work-concept/

[sidhujag]

...
And gold is effectively cash...

It's not, though. And maybe that's the crux of your disagreement with cypher.

Gold *used to be* effectively cash. And in a world without crypto, maybe the point would be moot because it would *still* be the only thing resembling ideal money that had a limited supply. But this world now does have crypto, which actually *is* ideal money for the modern world; all of gold's good properties, minus the real Achilles-heel for modern times (tangibility).

So, now, gold is not "effectively cash". Far from it. That has huge long-term implications. But historical inertia does indeed take time to change, so I, for one, have no idea what happens to gold short/medium-term.

There is no supply and demand int he paper market, just demand from ppl like you and me and then supply from freaks like JPM/HSBC big banks that based on the lenght of their shit in the morning decide what to do even on days with news like FOMC. Whichever direction gives them the most SL's they will take. In the end the direction will prevail when there is a mistake and FED is backed up and have to eat their words. It will probably seem like a sell news event when really it will be a gold buy.

[miscreanity]

anyone listening to you has lost 33% on their gold bullion and a mind boggling 81% on their miners over that time period.  

Bitcoin price is stagnant; dark pools are back in vogue. We are seeing a two-tier value structure emerge just as there exists with gold. Observe the former to understand the mature market of the latter.

What you see and latch onto in the paper markets is the wading pool, not the ocean. Unrealized profits and losses are transitory concerns when dealing with the real, underlying assets.

The pain of paper is simply too much for anyone without the fortitude and/or resources to simply sit tight and be right. I keep tabs, but have moved on from both Bitcoin and gold, because trading is not a lasting form of wealth: creating markets is.

[miscreanity]

...
And gold is effectively cash...

It's not, though.

Kings (institutional-scale entities) use gold as cash.

Crypto is a replacement, but isn't big enough yet.

[sidhujag]

anyone listening to you has lost 33% on their gold bullion and a mind boggling 81% on their miners over that time period.  

Bitcoin price is stagnant; dark pools are back in vogue. We are seeing a two-tier value structure emerge just as there exists with gold. Observe the former to understand the mature market of the latter.

What you see and latch onto in the paper markets is the wading pool, not the ocean. Unrealized profits and losses are transitory concerns when dealing with the real, underlying assets.

The pain of paper is simply too much for anyone without the fortitude and/or resources to simply sit tight and be right. I keep tabs, but have moved on from both Bitcoin and gold, because trading is not a lasting form of wealth: creating markets is.

creating a market or driving demand is the way to go you're right.

[S3052]

perhaps the thread should be renamed:
Gold collapsing, Bitcoin DOWN, Litecoin UP

[webcoinx]

perhaps the thread should be renamed:
Gold collapsing, Bitcoin DOWN, Litecoin UP

can't help but notice:

>13years experience

doing what?

[S3052]

perhaps the thread should be renamed:
Gold collapsing, Bitcoin DOWN, Litecoin UP

can't help but notice:

>13years experience

doing what?

writing in blue font :-)

[N12]

perhaps the thread should be renamed:
Gold collapsing, Bitcoin DOWN, Litecoin UP

You got it all wrong.

Gold collapsing, Bitcoin DOWN, US Dollar UP.

[S3052]

perhaps the thread should be renamed:
Gold collapsing, Bitcoin DOWN, Litecoin UP

You got it all wrong.

Gold collapsing, Bitcoin DOWN, US Dollar UP.

this is for sure also a valid one

or:
China collapsing, Europe DOWN, soccer UP

[ElectricMucus]

China ain't gonna collapse as long as there are production business left in the western world to out-source. Give it another decade.

[notme]

China ain't gonna collapse as long as there are production business left in the western world to out-source. Give it another decade.

In another decade China's exports will have collapsed as American robots and 3D printers lead a resurgence in western manufacturing.  Even China can't beat unpaid labor.

[ElectricMucus]

China ain't gonna collapse as long as there are production business left in the western world to out-source. Give it another decade.

In another decade China's exports will have collapsed as American robots and 3D printers lead a resurgence in western manufacturing.  Even China can't beat unpaid labor.

3D Printers are robots.
And who is gonna build the robots? And most importantly who's gonna supply the raw materials?

[N12]

Robots. Robots building robots. The singularity and post-scarcity society is coming. I wonder if we will be needing money then anymore.

[notme]

China ain't gonna collapse as long as there are production business left in the western world to out-source. Give it another decade.

In another decade China's exports will have collapsed as American robots and 3D printers lead a resurgence in western manufacturing.  Even China can't beat unpaid labor.

3D Printers are robots.
And who is gonna build the robots? And most importantly who's gonna supply the raw materials?

Robots will do most robot manufacture, and some repair.  There will always be maintenance people, but a 5 man team can keep an entire factory rolling.  Since there is almost no labor demand, their wages won't be that high anyway.  We may be slightly more than a decade away, but I believe we will see significant progress towards this.

You have no idea how many junkyards with over 50,000 tons of scrap steel I have within 100 miles of my house.  Americans have been throwing shit away like crazy for decades.  We also mine quite a bit of various metals.  Yes, there are some resources we lack, but we have a great abundance of energy and arable land.

[paraipan]

perhaps the thread should be renamed:
Gold collapsing, Bitcoin DOWN, Litecoin UP

You got it all wrong.

Gold collapsing, Bitcoin DOWN, US Dollar UP.

this is for sure also a valid one

or:
China collapsing, Europe DOWN, soccer UP

[vokain]

Thinking of you Doc 
http://www.acting-man.com/?p=24310