Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

[smoothie]

you should have said, "You are not going to sell bitcoins. You are going to hoard bitcoins".

Eventually, based on individual subject value theory, bitcoins will reach a fair price and an overvalued price.

When bitcoins are overvalued then it would make sense to start spending them either on consumer goods (like Ferraris, airplanes, space aircraft, yachts, etc.) or investment (farmland, apartment buildings, factories, etc.).

And as long as Bitcoin exists there will be a constant undulation between undervalued, fair and overvalued relative to the bitcoin exchange ratio to other goods.

Well said. Bitcoin isn't going to go "up up up" as Bruce Wagner believed.

I still say...

Short term (2-4 weeks) = UP

Mid Term (4-8 weeks) = Down

Long Term (8-16 weeks) = Up

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[miscreanity]

first of all, it will take Armageddon scenarios for gold to resume its role as a currency and at that point you'll need it to make day to day tx's.  and we're talking about peer to peer means of transacting btwn individuals for the most part.

No Armageddon, just doubt. And the Internet will be available if there were such a situation?

Concerning the P2P issue:

Individually sealed gram bars can alleviated the majority of issues with small user transactions and verification.

A broken seal from the mint might not be accepted. It would be like cracking open a PCGS shell. No high-tech solution needed for the majority of smaller transactions. Gold would not be the only currency, either - domestic variants would likely play a supporting role.

secondly, we're talking about the various forms of money here, specifically gold vs. Bitcoin, not oranges or cars.  Bitcoin and even cash is more portable than gold.

Yes, I pointed out that paper is more portable:

A paper check could do even better, though dependent upon a third party.

What adam brought up was a list of items supposedly reflecting negatively on gold, but each of the arguments are fairly easily overcome - especially so when established powers succumb and are too weak to negate gold's usage. No, gold is not as effective at everything as Bitcoin, but it still functions in an Armageddon scenario when barter reaches its limits.

gold is not capable of replacing the current monetary system either, in terms of a day to day transacting medium btwn peers.  it couldn't even resume its old role as a reserve for the world's different fiat currencies b/c of its non-portability.

Gold doesn't need to replace the current monetary system because it already is the foundation. Everything is collapsing down to gold's support, as it reflects the real economy. Acting as a reserve is exactly what it is being positioned for. Again, the stock simply has to exist somewhere. Depending on demand, that stock can be called upon for regional and local needs.

With planes, trains, automobiles, and mega-ships, gold is most certainly transportable - especially if done in batches. The argument that gold can't act as a reserve because of non-portability is like saying that corn can't be a good food source because it has to be milled and transported.

and its not that Bitcoin isn't capable of replacing the current monetary system; its just not known yet.  and it certainly would serve better as a reserve system for fiat money worldwide.

Umm...

Yes, Bitcoin is even better, but it isn't widespread yet.

Note the bold sections:

From a pragmatic perspective, Bitcoin may be technically superior in most respects, but it is not of a sufficient magnitude to replace the world's current monetary system. Maybe by the 2020s, but for the next few years the only monetary instrument capable of facilitating a transition from the fiat disaster is gold. In addition, if the global consciousness is already thinking along the lines of counterparty risk and gold as savings, it will be a much easier shift to using Bitcoin rather than trying to shoehorn a social conception completely incompatible.

Familiarity with gold translates to familiarity with Bitcoin, at least in functional usage.

for gold to resume its role as a currency Armageddon would have to result with obliteration of electricity and of the internet.  absent that, Bitcoin will win.  i'm not so dour on our future prospects. 

Please take note:

I prefer Bitcoin

... the general populace is still wholly unaware of Bitcoin's existence. Sure, we'd all like to see Bitcoin ascend to universal acceptance overnight. Sadly, that is not going to happen - it's a very long, agonizingly slow process (to us). We're still witnessing the beginnings.

Remember the Off-Planet Economics article? And you think I'm not pro-Bitcoin over gold?

I agree that Bitcoin is technically superior in nearly every aspect.

There is plenty that authorities can do to induce chaos and mayhem, certainly sufficient to disrupt at least local access to Bitcoin. Trying to sever the golden umbilical cord too early will not end well.

[cypherdoc]

"Why would I want to take my bitcoins out of the ether where my wealth would no longer be safe." Precisely.

This is one of the things I love about bitcoins - safe unless you can break ME

The other thing is, precious metals are a pain in the ass... I am not going to be checking weight and purity and all that other junk when I want to make a deal
I know bitcoin is good, the network will prove it, and a coin is easy to break down into tradeable parts

---

Side note - I am a tradesman in the Alberta oilsands, I spend long days on tools talkin shit with the other boys.
Sometimes that shittalking is productive, I have learned / observed a few things:
Around the time OWS broke out, everyone was talking about how fucked the government is. We all hate politicians, they have no trust.
All the old balls are telling us young bucks to buy silver. Every time gold is brought up, we are told it has no industrial purpose and is hella pricey.
Most of us have started buying silver and spending less on strippers and truck mods.
This is out in the middle of the oilsands ... we are known for our toys and partying.

Once bitcoin becomes a little more pervasive / easy to trade in and I figure out how to explain it, I bet I will be selling a bunch of casascius coins out in camp.

yo dude.  i admire you boys up there.  i used to study the energy industry intensively for years before the financial crisis esp. the oil sands.  you boys have some big trucks and tires up there:  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uUqTRDRff7U

you might get along well with tvbcof and silverbox. 

[miscreanity]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gk5aRIz17fk

lol, usually those videos are given as examples of how stupid people are; you're using it as an example of how smart people are!  

see miscreanity?  it's hopeless.  lol!

Go to Africa, Asia, or South America and try that.

[cypherdoc]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gk5aRIz17fk

lol, usually those videos are given as examples of how stupid people are; you're using it as an example of how smart people are!  

see miscreanity?  it's hopeless.  lol!

Go to Africa, Asia, or South America and try that.

you mean there is hope?!!! lol!!  

[miscreanity]

Exactly. Gold can be chokepointed which makes it difficult to route around damage.

Currently, Bitcoin is hampered by similar effects - the exchanges are weak points, and local handling doesn't seem to be sufficient to negate that yet. When there's a large enough economic 'surface' for Bitcoin where they can be spent on a critical mass of goods and services, the exchanges won't matter much anyway. We're just not there yet.

Gold's exchanges are already distributed, all the way down to the local level (think pawn shops and jewelry stores). I've contemplated the possibility that those kinds of establishments will add Bitcoin alongside precious metals, giving the former a piggyback ride.

I think too much emphasis is being placed on the complete replacement of one with another, and not enough on the matter of how a transition will unfold.

i like that term; chokepointed.  we have chokepoints in place already; the Comex, LBMA, Fort Knox, Fed basement, Goldmoney's Jersey, London and Swiss vaults, the Perth Mint, GLD, etc.  how would you know if your gold got stolen?  if the Fed won't allow a decent audit of its gold reserves what about the rest of these guys when the SHTF?

Simple: physical metal in hand. Face it - gold is not going away yet.

you mean there is hope?!!! lol!!  

And they're more likely to adopt Bitcoin as well, in part because they recognize why gold is valuable. It's easier to grasp an idea when you already have the building blocks.

[cypherdoc]

It's easier to grasp an idea when you already have the building blocks.

yes, but this is America.  WE are the building blocks of the world.  or is it the blockheads of the world?

[miscreanity]

It's easier to grasp an idea when you already have the building blocks.

yes, but this is America.  WE are the building blocks of the world.  or is it the blockheads of the world?

Forget the blocks, I think it's gone schizophrenic

Doesn't matter - this is all the world needs.

Update:
This might be virtual Armaggedon -
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/threat-spectacular-cyberattack-looms-official-185505164.html

[molecular]

for gold to resume its role as a currency Armageddon would have to result with obliteration of electricity and of the internet.  absent that, Bitcoin will win.  i'm not so dour on our future prospects. 

In that scenario - bullets and bottles of strong liquor make a better currency than gold.

Gold - I don't know why anyone really cares about it, I honestly think the majority of its value comes from the old folk and their old thinking
My generation will refuse to inherit all the problems of the current worlds financial systems (fiat, etc) and will easily recognize the value of something like bitcoin and brainwallets over gold.

Silver is still cheap enough and has enough industrial purpose to keep my interest at the moment.

In an armageddon-like scenario with internet-breakdown cigarettes beat both gold and bitcoin.

[lebing]

for gold to resume its role as a currency Armageddon would have to result with obliteration of electricity and of the internet.  absent that, Bitcoin will win.  i'm not so dour on our future prospects. 

In that scenario - bullets and bottles of strong liquor make a better currency than gold.

Gold - I don't know why anyone really cares about it, I honestly think the majority of its value comes from the old folk and their old thinking
My generation will refuse to inherit all the problems of the current worlds financial systems (fiat, etc) and will easily recognize the value of something like bitcoin and brainwallets over gold.

Silver is still cheap enough and has enough industrial purpose to keep my interest at the moment.

In an armageddon-like scenario with internet-breakdown cigarettes beat both gold and bitcoin.

Unless the world somehow turns into a prison, I'm guessing that local food stuffs will be better than cigarettes, but yeah point taken.

[conspirosphere.tk]

Unless the world somehow turns into a prison, I'm guessing that local food stuffs will be better than cigarettes, but yeah point taken.

I would bet on the prison planet scenario, if you asked me. So even tobacco sounds good.

edit: want max security and free food? GO IN JAIL!

[miscreanity]

From the Bitcoin subreddit:

So, I'm back from Iceland, where I had hoped to sell about 50BTC for local currency to help bring Bitcoin to the country. I had two people I was in touch with there who were willing to trade. End result? Nothing happened. Although the hotel I stayed at was supposedly going to have free WiFi, when I got there, it turned out that their wifi costs $10 a day. A bit more than I was willing to spend. I was only able to get in touch with those people sporadically throughout the day whenever I found open WiFi hotspots while walking around the city, and due to the difficult communication, and the android wallet on my phone not able to sign and broadcast Bitcoin transactions at the hotel, the deal fell through. We basically just all apologized to each other for the difficulties and annoyances over e-mail, and went our separate ways. Bitcoin needs internet to work, and everyone has internet everywhere, but it's still a pain for travelers who may have internet at home, but not while traveling. Bitcoincard.org can't arrive soon enough!

Granted, there were some technical issues that could be resolved, but for someone familiar with Bitcoin to have these problems means there is still too much required of people whom are not tech-savvy. If every pawn shop and jeweler exchanged bitcoins, this probably wouldn't be an issue. It just isn't there yet. Gold still has its place for a while to come.

[lebing]

From the Bitcoin subreddit:

So, I'm back from Iceland, where I had hoped to sell about 50BTC for local currency to help bring Bitcoin to the country. I had two people I was in touch with there who were willing to trade. End result? Nothing happened. Although the hotel I stayed at was supposedly going to have free WiFi, when I got there, it turned out that their wifi costs $10 a day. A bit more than I was willing to spend. I was only able to get in touch with those people sporadically throughout the day whenever I found open WiFi hotspots while walking around the city, and due to the difficult communication, and the android wallet on my phone not able to sign and broadcast Bitcoin transactions at the hotel, the deal fell through. We basically just all apologized to each other for the difficulties and annoyances over e-mail, and went our separate ways. Bitcoin needs internet to work, and everyone has internet everywhere, but it's still a pain for travelers who may have internet at home, but not while traveling. Bitcoincard.org can't arrive soon enough!

Granted, there were some technical issues that could be resolved, but for someone familiar with Bitcoin to have these problems means there is still too much required of people whom are not tech-savvy. If every pawn shop and jeweler exchanged bitcoins, this probably wouldn't be an issue. It just isn't there yet. Gold still has its place for a while to come.

This is a special case because he was traveling and he was unaware (or did not plan effectively enough to be aware) of the infrastructure requirements. It requires much less planning/ forethought when this happens among locals in their local area.

[miscreanity]

This is a special case because he was traveling and he was unaware (or did not plan effectively enough to be aware) of the infrastructure requirements. It requires much less planning/ forethought when this happens among locals in their local area.

So ignore this case? Regardless, there are still too many potential hiccups and hurdles for most people - interface simplicity and reliability is approaching universal appeal, but hasn't arrived yet. Conceptual dissonance doesn't help, either.

[lebing]

This is a special case because he was traveling and he was unaware (or did not plan effectively enough to be aware) of the infrastructure requirements. It requires much less planning/ forethought when this happens among locals in their local area.

So ignore this case? Regardless, there are still too many potential hiccups and hurdles for most people - interface simplicity and reliability is approaching universal appeal, but hasn't arrived yet. Conceptual dissonance doesn't help, either.

Don't ignore the case, no. But don't use it to make a point either.

There are definitely too many hurdles for most people, I just think this case is a shitty example.

[miscreanity]

Understanding Asian Gold Demand from GoldMoney does very well at explaining the mindset associated with gold. Changing that perspective may take years, during which Bitcoin and gold will have to coexist.

Between China, India and all the other gold-loving countries in South-east Asia, there are now nearly three billion people certain in the knowledge that gold is a far better long-term store of value than any paper currency.

[miscreanity]

Don't ignore the case, no. But don't use it to make a point either.

There are definitely too many hurdles for most people, I just think this case is a shitty example.

It's actually a very good example, because it hit nearly every extrinsic limitation of Bitcoin today. It illustrates the connectivity-dependent nature of the system, potential inconsistency with related software, and the extent of planning necessary to conduct a transaction in less-than-ideal circumstances. Even if it's an edge case, it means there are opportunities for enterprising minds to provide numerous types of supporting services that will smooth the situation.

What would be even more interesting is information to compare how many smooth transactions occur relative to how many run into problems, and the extent of failure (e.g. delayed versus canceled, performed through another currency, etc).

[cypherdoc]

Don't ignore the case, no. But don't use it to make a point either.

There are definitely too many hurdles for most people, I just think this case is a shitty example.

It's actually a very good example, because it hit nearly every extrinsic limitation of Bitcoin today. It illustrates the connectivity-dependent nature of the system, potential inconsistency with related software, and the extent of planning necessary to conduct a transaction in less-than-ideal circumstances. Even if it's an edge case, it means there are opportunities for enterprising minds to provide numerous types of supporting services that will smooth the situation.

What would be even more interesting is information to compare how many smooth transactions occur relative to how many run into problems, and the extent of failure (e.g. delayed versus canceled, performed through another currency, etc).

you mean to tell me there are no Starbuck's in Iceland?  those ppl were just not motivated enough, plain and simple.

$10 for wifi is standard fare.  should've been no big deal.  i just paid $12 per 24h while travelling.

[molecular]

Don't ignore the case, no. But don't use it to make a point either.

There are definitely too many hurdles for most people, I just think this case is a shitty example.

It's actually a very good example, because it hit nearly every extrinsic limitation of Bitcoin today. It illustrates the connectivity-dependent nature of the system, potential inconsistency with related software, and the extent of planning necessary to conduct a transaction in less-than-ideal circumstances. Even if it's an edge case, it means there are opportunities for enterprising minds to provide numerous types of supporting services that will smooth the situation.

What would be even more interesting is information to compare how many smooth transactions occur relative to how many run into problems, and the extent of failure (e.g. delayed versus canceled, performed through another currency, etc).

localbitcoins.com offers a way to conduct the transaction that requires only one person to be able to send an sms (with a code to release the bitcoins). The other party need to be able to receive sms for verifcation.

[molecular]

Don't ignore the case, no. But don't use it to make a point either.

There are definitely too many hurdles for most people, I just think this case is a shitty example.

It's actually a very good example, because it hit nearly every extrinsic limitation of Bitcoin today. It illustrates the connectivity-dependent nature of the system, potential inconsistency with related software, and the extent of planning necessary to conduct a transaction in less-than-ideal circumstances. Even if it's an edge case, it means there are opportunities for enterprising minds to provide numerous types of supporting services that will smooth the situation.

What would be even more interesting is information to compare how many smooth transactions occur relative to how many run into problems, and the extent of failure (e.g. delayed versus canceled, performed through another currency, etc).

you mean to tell me there are no Starbuck's in Iceland?  those ppl were just not motivated enough, plain and simple.

$10 for wifi is standard fare.  should've been no big deal.  i just paid $12 per 24h while travelling.

pff. friggin $10 for wifi is a joke. Go to south korea for a change: free wifi on the smallest friggin island. When I was in London I bought 500 MB of data each day for €2. I can do this in almost all European countries and the provider I have is not a positive exception.

Most mobile providers offer pretty affordable data plan abroad nowadays. it's only getting better, too, since customers are growing more aware of these things when making a contract and therefor it's a selling point and providers are growing more aware of the fact.

I think "not motivated enough" hits the nail on the head. Island is not some 3rd world country (although I tend to think the situation might even be better in 3rd world countries),... there are internet cafes (who specialize in offering internet connection to customers, their main business, the other being to offer computers for use) and cafes with free wifi for sure. Screw the hotel for advertising free wifi when it doesn't offer it.

I've been driving from germany to Amman, Jordan a couple years ago (passing through bulgaria, turkey, syria and so on, 13 different countries in all). Getting internet was usually much easier than finding a good, cheap place to sleep (we blogged regularly so we had to have internet basically every night)

The only problem I see with bitcoins dependance on network infrastructure is in some sort of an armageddon-style situation or global war or something. Hopefully the powers that be will not initiate ww3 just to kill bitcoin.