Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

I should note that when I said you wouldn't want much of your wealth in fiat, I was speaking from the point of view of being afraid of being too heavily invested in Bitcoin. Like the situation where you have a $1 million in Bitcoin and only $20,000 in fiat. If Bitcoin somehow fails, you instantly become a meek peon again, financially. So you'd put some decent chunk, like maybe half, into dollars so that in case of Bitcoin failure you still have half a mil in the bank. That's what I guess most smaller investors imagine they will do if they win big in bitcoins.

But I'm saying even in that scenario, with those concerns, it's still not very attractive to put half in fiat, or even a third in fiat. Because there are other failures to worry about besides a catastrophe in Bitcoin. There's inflation, wrongful imprisonment (or if you're a bad dude, rightful imprisonment), deportation from your country of residence, other freezing of your assets or haircuts or fraudulent activity on your account or run on your bank, making a mistake in your filings, divorce losing you half your stash, etc. Why do anything so risky as to hold large amounts of fiat??

[1714065528]

1714065528

[tvbcof]

I should note that when I said you wouldn't want much of your wealth in fiat, I was speaking from the point of view of being afraid of being too heavily invested in Bitcoin. Like the situation where you a $1 million in Bitcoin and only $20,000 in fiat. If Bitcoin somehow fails, you instantly become a meek peon again, financially. So you'd put some decent chunk, like maybe half, into dollars so that in case of Bitcoin failure you still have half a mil in the bank. That I guess most smaller investors imagine they will do if they win big in bitcoins.

But I'm saying even in that scenario, with those concerns, it's still not very attractive to put half in fiat, or even a third in fiat. Because there are other failures to worry about besides a catastrophe in Bitcoin. There's inflation, wrongful imprisonment (or if you're a bad dude, rightful imprisonment), deportation from your country of residence, other freezing of your assets or haircuts or fraudulent activity on your account or run on your bank, making a mistake in your filings, divorce losing you half your stash, etc. Why do anything so risky as to hold large amounts of fiat??

Good points.

I would add that there are a lot of other options besides 'fiat' and 'BTC' for wealth storage.  Real property, commodities, education, a multitude of traditional instruments, etc.  More clever and well off persons will be considering and balancing many of these.

[N12]

Right, "dirty fiat money" can buy you any sort of hard asset.

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

Good points.

I would add that there are a lot of other options besides 'fiat' and 'BTC' for wealth storage.  Real property, commodities, education, a multitude of traditional instruments, etc.  More clever and well off persons will be considering and balancing many of these.

It's true, but most of these are subject to confiscation, not transportable if you need to (or are forced to) leave the country, or not transportable in large amounts. Accounts in multiple countries is the next best thing, but it is pretty unwieldy and won't help much in the more extreme cases.

[tvbcof]

Good points.

I would add that there are a lot of other options besides 'fiat' and 'BTC' for wealth storage.  Real property, commodities, education, a multitude of traditional instruments, etc.  More clever and well off persons will be considering and balancing many of these.

It's true, but most of these are subject to confiscation, not transportable if you need to (or are forced to) leave the country, or not transportable in large amounts. Accounts in multiple countries is the next best thing, but it is pretty unwieldy and won't help much in the more extreme cases.

Everything has it's Achilles' heal, and frankly speaking, Bitcoin has more than it's share.  All of these things are just factors to consider in weighing things.  The biggest factor is one's own unique situation and that varies wildly from individual to individual.

[rocks]

The weird thing about getting rich in Bitcoin is, it's not even particularly attractive to cash out large amounts - even right now - unless you have a specific purchase in mind. If you had $1 million in BTC, why would you convert even a third of that into fiat just to store it in a bank account where it can get frozen

This conclusion comes from seeing Bitcoin as a reserve asset (one that I very much share). Today US Treasury debt is the reserve asset to own, and the problem with fiat is you can't really "own" debt because a public or individual can choose to refuse to pay. (As the next generation should do if they are smart).

I should note that when I said you wouldn't want much of your wealth in fiat, I was speaking from the point of view of being afraid of being too heavily invested in Bitcoin. Like the situation where you a $1 million in Bitcoin and only $20,000 in fiat. If Bitcoin somehow fails, you instantly become a meek peon again, financially. So you'd put some decent chunk, like maybe half, into dollars so that in case of Bitcoin failure you still have half a mil in the bank. That I guess most smaller investors imagine they will do if they win big in bitcoins.

Good points.

I would add that there are a lot of other options besides 'fiat' and 'BTC' for wealth storage.  Real property, commodities, education, a multitude of traditional instruments, etc.  More clever and well off persons will be considering and balancing many of these.

Fully agree, this is the rebalancing argument. Yes other assets have issues, but it never makes sense to keep 99% of your wealth in one asset, be it gold, land, fiat, stocks, etc.

If BTC continues to go up, it will make sense for many long term believers to sell a little from time to time and rebalance into other assets and remain diversified. Even gold bugs say you shouldn't hold more than 10% in gold, with BTC I think we can go higher than that, but when you get to over 50% in Bitcoin consider selling a little and buy other assets that yield.

[Morbid]

could we have something like http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102 being implemented in western ('democratic') countries once things become extremely unstable? not just with metals but also with crypto assets?

[Adrian-x]

This conclusion comes from seeing Bitcoin as a reserve asset (one that I very much share). Today US Treasury debt is the reserve asset to own, and the problem with fiat is you can't really "own" debt because a public or individual can choose to refuse to pay. (As the next generation should do if they are smart).

In which generation are you?  I was thinking as the baton is handed from the baby boomers to the upcoming "smart" generation over the next 10 years they should figure that out.

[tvbcof]

could we have something like http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102 being implemented in western ('democratic') countries once things become extremely unstable? not just with metals but also with crypto assets?

This gets back to my point about it being 'plausibly deniable' that one retains control of crypto assets even in the case that control can be proven at one time.  And this thanks to the undeniable and demonstrated risks of theft and fraud that Bitcoin does NOT share with gold.

Put another way, if Bitcoin is spent from a wallet that at one time belonged to me, there is every possibility that I had nothing to do with it and have no idea who the guy who ripped it off might be.

Of course it is possible to lose PM's as well, and I have done it (yes, that is the honest truth!) but it's just not as common.  BTW, I only know that I had lost certain PM's because I found them unexpectedly and had totally forgotten that I had put them where I found them.  In Bitcoinland, there is a trail of lost BTC from practically every wallet or on-line service I've ever fucked with.  In small quantities of course...to the best of my recollection...

[oakpacific]

Years ago, and probably on this thread, I predicted that the main problem would be to figure out how to capitalize.  How much, when, how (in light of regulatory interference, etc) and that sort of thing.  And as I had hoped, that is the set of problems I'm facing now.

this is what i continue to call Bitcoin's Tension.

ppl are so focused on the problems of today.  especially the illiquidity and difficulties in "capitalizing". and they are right about that; today.  but anyone here, if they have been paying attention to what i've been saying, understands that if Bitcoin makes it thru the gauntlet (window of illiquidity and nonacceptance) all these problems will melt away.  

all of a sudden you will find yourself in control of a pile of BTC worth thousands and all sorts of means to capitalize if you wish (cash out).

it's going to happen.

Actually, I expect that the more successful Bitcoin becomes, the more challenging it will be for me (as someone who lives in a non-free jurisdiction (the U.S.)) to find solutions to the problem of capitalizing.  In no circumstance did I every intend to take a majority of my BTC to my grave, and I think that there is a fair chance that even trading BTC straight across for a tractor if/when some old farmer knows of them and wishes to own them will be fraught with danger.

I'm on record as predicting that all important governments would reject and fight Bitcoin and with escalating forcefulness, and probably cooperate in doing so.  To my shock and delight, it seems like I may be wrong about that given the developments out of China.  Yet I continue to have great suspicion of the likely posture of the U.S. government which is massively as corrupted by corporate lobbying and is looking at a much greater fall being still the beneficiary of having world's reserve currency.  As a citizen who lives under U.S. jurisdiction, this is most salient to me.

I believe technical solutions are not so difficult to come by, i.e., P2P distributed exchanges. OTOH, governments around the world know that a system with a single point of failure will fall someday, they have the need to diversify, better still, some of them may figure out that it's futile to try to destroy a system which in its most essential form is nothing more than an idea, which is indestructible.

And lastly, being the controller of the world's reserve currency ain't so much of a bliss as it's a burden. There is no escape from your creditors and the ranks and files of them grow by each day, even during the worst of times you can't even close business as there is no 'sold out' option for you, shift the reserve currency to something else will save all of us a great deal of troubles.

[oakpacific]

The exante BitcoinFund prediction is 500. They have a pod of whales swimming in their pond.

Meh, Bitcoin's market cap is currently $2.5B. That is a lot but nothing compared to many $Tillions of gold reserves held.

A Bitcoin price of 500 still only brings the market cap to around $6B, it Bitcoin takes off as a viable reserve asset that is nothing and we still have a way to go.

The reason price targets make no sense is Bitcoin is either going to the moon, or crashing to zero as a failed experiment. I don't see a middle ground. That is the entire premise of this thread IMHO, that BTC will become a reserve asset and in the process go up A LOT. Why trade that asset? Just hold.

+1.  It's always nice to see when someone 'gets it'  (said with an air of presumption which does not escape me...)

Years ago, and probably on this thread, I predicted that the main problem would be to figure out how to capitalize.  How much, when, how (in light of regulatory interference, etc) and that sort of thing.  And as I had hoped, that is the set of problems I'm facing now.

this is what i continue to call Bitcoin's Tension.

ppl are so focused on the problems of today.  especially the illiquidity and difficulties in "capitalizing". and they are right about that; today.  but anyone here, if they have been paying attention to what i've been saying, understands that if Bitcoin makes it thru the gauntlet (window of illiquidity and nonacceptance) all these problems will melt away.  

all of a sudden you will find yourself in control of a pile of BTC worth thousands and all sorts of means to capitalize if you wish (cash out).

it's going to happen.

It's a utterly strange feeling that either the whole world goes down and you and a small group of people are the sole winners, the last ones left standing, or the world wins over you and you have nothing left, no compromise, no reconciliation.

As much as I want to see the success of Bitcoin, I am not sure I am already prepared for the Pax Bitcoinica world.

[NewLiberty]

The exante BitcoinFund prediction is 500. They have a pod of whales swimming in their pond.

Meh, Bitcoin's market cap is currently $2.5B. That is a lot but nothing compared to many $Tillions of gold reserves held.

A Bitcoin price of 500 still only brings the market cap to around $6B, it Bitcoin takes off as a viable reserve asset that is nothing and we still have a way to go.

The reason price targets make no sense is Bitcoin is either going to the moon, or crashing to zero as a failed experiment. I don't see a middle ground. That is the entire premise of this thread IMHO, that BTC will become a reserve asset and in the process go up A LOT. Why trade that asset? Just hold.

+1.  It's always nice to see when someone 'gets it'  (said with an air of presumption which does not escape me...)

Years ago, and probably on this thread, I predicted that the main problem would be to figure out how to capitalize.  How much, when, how (in light of regulatory interference, etc) and that sort of thing.  And as I had hoped, that is the set of problems I'm facing now.

this is what i continue to call Bitcoin's Tension.

ppl are so focused on the problems of today.  especially the illiquidity and difficulties in "capitalizing". and they are right about that; today.  but anyone here, if they have been paying attention to what i've been saying, understands that if Bitcoin makes it thru the gauntlet (window of illiquidity and nonacceptance) all these problems will melt away.  

all of a sudden you will find yourself in control of a pile of BTC worth thousands and all sorts of means to capitalize if you wish (cash out).

it's going to happen.

It's a utterly strange feeling that either the whole world goes down and you and a small group of people are the sole winners, the last ones left standing, or the world wins over you and you have nothing left, no compromise, no reconciliation.

As much as I want to see the success of Bitcoin, I am not sure I am already prepared for the Pax Bitcoinica world.

Exante's prediction was for 2013, made in April.  Yes the future will be different.

The trick of pax bitcoinica is to get from here to there with the least destructive upheavals.  
This is one of the considerations of my projects.  To bring bitcoin and hard money in general, to the people who will use it so that when the changes come they can manage it.  It is not so bad to spread it more thinly.  It is easier when no one around you is hungry or carrying pitchforks.  Slow steady rises are good.  I look forward to the year when Bitcoin price only doubles.

[cypherdoc]

could we have something like http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102 being implemented in western ('democratic') countries once things become extremely unstable? not just with metals but also with crypto assets?

This gets back to my point about it being 'plausibly deniable' that one retains control of crypto assets even in the case that control can be proven at one time.  And this thanks to the undeniable and demonstrated risks of theft and fraud that Bitcoin does NOT share with gold.

Put another way, if Bitcoin is spent from a wallet that at one time belonged to me, there is every possibility that I had nothing to do with it and have no idea who the guy who ripped it off might be.

Of course it is possible to lose PM's as well, and I have done it (yes, that is the honest truth!) but it's just not as common.  BTW, I only know that I had lost certain PM's because I found them unexpectedly and had totally forgotten that I had put them where I found them.  In Bitcoinland, there is a trail of lost BTC from practically every wallet or on-line service I've ever fucked with.  In small quantities of course...to the best of my recollection...

lol!  you are getting old! 

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

The laggards will still be far better off in a Bitcoin world than they are now (except the bankers, politicians, and most government contractors). A Bitcoin-powered world is one where the pie is immeasurably bigger.

[rocks]

This conclusion comes from seeing Bitcoin as a reserve asset (one that I very much share). Today US Treasury debt is the reserve asset to own, and the problem with fiat is you can't really "own" debt because a public or individual can choose to refuse to pay. (As the next generation should do if they are smart).

In which generation are you?  I was thinking as the baton is handed from the baby boomers to the upcoming "smart" generation over the next 10 years they should figure that out.

I'm late Gen-X.  I see us as stuck in the middle between the boomers who are retiring now and want the system to continue and the millenials who have become debt serfs trapped between more student loan debt, higher housing costs and lower job prospects than any previous generation faced.

The millenials have every reason to revolt if they are smart. I'm not sure what direction us Gen-Xers will take. On one hand we are more established and want the system to continue, on the other hand we know it will unravel before our time is up.

[AndrewWilliams]

I'm late Gen-X.  I see us as stuck in the middle between the boomers who are retiring now and want the system to continue and the millenials who have become debt serfs trapped between more student loan debt, higher housing costs and lower job prospects than any previous generation faced.

The millenials have every reason to revolt if they are smart. I'm not sure what direction us Gen-Xers will take. On one hand we are more established and want the system to continue, on the other hand we know it will unravel before our time is up.

LOL.


Handing off the baton? Yeah right.

The baby boomer generation is set on sucking every penny through their unsustainable pensions and the current situation with social security.

As my university professors warned us, our generation will be left holding an empty bag.

The pensions are unsustainable and will NOT continue for Gen X.


Gen X, it is wisest if you see the debacle you have been placed in. Tuition has risen to record levels, and in most cases graduates will be 30 years old until their student loans are paid off. Don't rely on pensions, social security, or any of that other nonsense.

[tvbcof]

...
Gen X, it is wisest if you see the debacle you have been placed in. Tuition has risen to record levels, and in most cases graduates will be 30 years old until their student loans are paid off. Don't rely on pensions, social security, or any of that other nonsense.

Gee, thanks for the advice.  Why do you think I'm dicking around with Bitcoin?  It should be pretty obvious to most of us Gen-X'ers that we need to be looking out for our own asses since nobody else is going to be.  I practically spit on the floor when anyone tried to goad me into participating in the 401k program at my various places of work over the last decade.  I'd place a pretty big bet that unless I'm eating cat food that money will be allocated to someone else per a 'means test' regime.  I did, in fact, by rejecting the tax break bait.

[AndrewWilliams]

...
Gen X, it is wisest if you see the debacle you have been placed in. Tuition has risen to record levels, and in most cases graduates will be 30 years old until their student loans are paid off. Don't rely on pensions, social security, or any of that other nonsense.

Gee, thanks for the advice.  Why do you think I'm dicking around with Bitcoin?  It should be pretty obvious to most of us Gen-X'ers that we need to be looking out for our own asses since nobody else is going to be.  I practically spit on the floor when anyone tried to goad me into participating in the 401k program at my various places of work over the last decade.  I'd place a pretty big bet that unless I'm eating cat food that money will be allocated to someone else per a 'means test' regime.  I did, in fact, by rejecting the tax break bait.

I LOL'd when I read about you spitting on the floor when goaded with a 401k.

That's funny man.




But seriously, there are rumors 401k is going to become open game for the government to seize to payoff government debt, a la Cypress banks style.

401K isn't all bad. You get to differ taxes by participating in it (depending on your tax situation, consult an honest accountant), so if the money would have gone to the tax man, anyways, it can't hurt.

But yeah, you aren't the only one pissed off at being treated as a "debt slave", working to support the baby boomers, while you will be left with little.

I say, Gen X needs to press harder with developing internet companies, like Facebook and Twitter. If there is an advantage younger people have its their tech savyness.

Let the geezers have their Social Security money. They can invest it into their precarious 401ks buying into Bitcoin ETFs

[tvbcof]

But yeah, you aren't the only one pissed off at being treated as a "debt slave", working to support the baby boomers, while you will be left with little.

Funny enough, that really never bothered me all that much.  Not sure why.  I've had a lot of good fortune in life I suppose.  It annoys me that a fair fraction of my labor is siphoned off by financial institutions on it's way to help the less fortunate though.

I say, Gen X needs to press harder with developing internet companies, like Facebook and Twitter. If there is an advantage younger people have its their tech savyness.

Even relatively older Gen-X'ers like myself who were aspiring geeks had access to such magical toys as a C-64.  When we got tired of keying in Chicken Little out of Compute's Gazette there was little else to do but learn 6502 assembly...there being no accessible Internet in the form which was to follow.  Although I forgot most of the details in the decade I spent away from computers, some of those old lessons and concepts were very helpful when I got back into things.  I doubt that I would have developed anywhere nearly as much tech savvy had I access to a modern phone with 40,000 ready-to-go apps or whatever.  But who knows?

[notme]

I'm late Gen-X.  I see us as stuck in the middle between the boomers who are retiring now and want the system to continue and the millenials who have become debt serfs trapped between more student loan debt, higher housing costs and lower job prospects than any previous generation faced.

The millenials have every reason to revolt if they are smart. I'm not sure what direction us Gen-Xers will take. On one hand we are more established and want the system to continue, on the other hand we know it will unravel before our time is up.

LOL.


Handing off the baton? Yeah right.

The baby boomer generation is set on sucking every penny through their unsustainable pensions and the current situation with social security.

As my university professors warned us, our generation will be left holding an empty bag.

The pensions are unsustainable and will NOT continue for Gen X.


Gen X, it is wisest if you see the debacle you have been placed in. Tuition has risen to record levels, and in most cases graduates will be 30 years old until their student loans are paid off. Don't rely on pensions, social security, or any of that other nonsense.

Lol@ having student loans paid off by the age of 30.  Try 45.