[XMR] Monero Speculation

[smooth]

Guess I'll just have to wait for the next whale dump to get back in.

Whales are accumulating. The miners dump. I don't rule out a miner dump but in this environment with brisk demand that is pretty needless.

If I needed to sell 50k, it would not be hard to do. And if I needed to sell my produce, there would be no need to accumulate 50k before selling.

These are clearly evident in the recent days when lows have been rising quicker than the highs.

There will always be a whale dump to accumulate lower. You know this. Sometimes it will even cause panic selling. Wait didn't we just go through one of those?

I know many things, including that it takes about 3x overvaluation to be able to safely sell something and actually gain money whale scale. BTC has been in this situation 3 times during its history, I spotted all of them, in the first one actively refused to buy (bought later at $3), second one had time to sell for 1 day until it toppled and third one bought a castle. These I know. Monero has never been such overvalued.

I think it was 3x overvalued, and probably more than that when it was 0.01 and extremely immature with no track record. That was only for a short time, but long enough for me to sell more than once.

No this was not whale scale, but nothing about Monero is really, although that was the closest we got.

[Quicken]

Guess I'll just have to wait for the next whale dump to get back in.

Whales are accumulating. The miners dump. I don't rule out a miner dump but in this environment with brisk demand that is pretty needless.

If I needed to sell 50k, it would not be hard to do. And if I needed to sell my produce, there would be no need to accumulate 50k before selling.

These are clearly evident in the recent days when lows have been rising quicker than the highs.

There will always be a whale dump to accumulate lower. You know this. Sometimes it will even cause panic selling. Wait didn't we just go through one of those?

I know many things, including that it takes about 3x overvaluation to be able to safely sell something and actually gain money whale scale. BTC has been in this situation 3 times during its history, I spotted all of them, in the first one actively refused to buy (bought later at $3), second one had time to sell for 1 day until it toppled and third one bought a castle. These I know. Monero has never been such overvalued.

I think it was 3x overvalued, and probably more than that when it was 0.01 and extremely immature with no track record. That was only for a short time, but long enough for me to sell more than once.

No this was not whale scale, but nothing about Monero is really, although that was the closest we got.

I agree. It would have been better if the price had stayed below 0.005 in June 2014, if only so that people didn't think a one week spike in price was representative of anything solid.

[Shrikez]

Whoever has been doing the market making over the last month (if anyone is doing it at all): You are doing a masterful job, at least from my amateurish point of view.

[GingerAle]

So, just FYI, almost 40% of the available XMR supply has exchanged hands over the past month.

Methods: poloniex, 1 month view, 1 day candles, drag over each candle and record XMR volume. Sum up these numbers.

the comment re: "market making" got me curious what kind of market maker this would be.

And here's the data:

feb-24 172861
75085
71196
82312
148702
42298
141498
39531
43975
86541
137419
34022
63069
170410
227075
111596
74913
71218
106312
73859
112937
59925
59597
59322
25193
74677
121729
40361
55203
112734
41253
Mar 27 - 13057

sum = 2,749,880

total xmr supply at writing: 6,906,568

[aminorex]

Busoni gon be riiiiiiche

[Its About Sharing]

So, just FYI, almost 40% of the available XMR supply has exchanged hands over the past month.

Methods: poloniex, 1 month view, 1 day candles, drag over each candle and record XMR volume. Sum up these numbers.

the comment re: "market making" got me curious what kind of market maker this would be.

And here's the data:

feb-24 172861
75085
71196
82312
148702
42298
141498
39531
43975
86541
137419
34022
63069
170410
227075
111596
74913
71218
106312
73859
112937
59925
59597
59322
25193
74677
121729
40361
55203
112734
41253
Mar 27 - 13057

sum = 2,749,880

total xmr supply at writing: 6,906,568

Does this make practical sense? I mean is it miners dumping and "whales" accumulating, yet keeping the price from moving too much?
We can't really know but a part of me wonders how much is just person A selling to person B and then back again. Of course this
happens with any coin, but I wonder what the "real" volume is. Can any whales comment? 

That said, we can't exactly complain at the state of things. I think we are seeing wave II of Cryptos come up before our eyes (anonymous).
And as another said earlier, we need distribution to really take place before we fall too low on the emission curve (say in the next 18 months or so)
and even then it will be the whales "job" to make sure a healthy amount of distribution occurs, after all -

Its about sharing

[GingerAle]

^^^ yeah, exactly, thats why I used the phrasing "exchanged hands".... a crude analysis, yeah. I guess its not proper to say "X % of available supply" then....

[Gladimor]

We can see that there is session of accumulation by the placement of relatively large sell orders and buy orders. Currently, there is an established buy wall of 10 BTC at around 0.003 BTC per XMR.

In addition, there is a sell order worth 10 BTC at 0.00316~ BTC per XMR.

These 2 orders allow the price to be sandwiched at an approximate range of 0.00016 BTC variance. The purpose of those orders is to hold the price steady while accumulation proceeds, and to prevent the price from rocketing up due to a flash-rise, or the opposite due to a flash-crash.

A few days ago, we saw a 50 BTC wall at 0.0031 BTC get eaten in under a minute. I'm fairly certain that the person that set that order in the first place bought his own sell order (90%~ of it).

[TrueCryptonaire]

I am thinking about putting another 10BTC on XMR yet i also want to wait for a nice big dump....What do?

If you want to buy them fast but not to pay too much extra, put a buy order of 8 btc on spot + 3 % and rest 2 btc you put below this "supporting" your buy order.
Chances are you get dumped and you pay less than 3 % over spot on average.

[Its About Sharing]

If the emission curve puts us at just under 16,000 XMR per day - https://moneroeconomy.com/wiki/emission-rate,
we will be at roughly at 11,000 at the end of 2015, then 6500 at end of 2016. (I think I read 80% of the emission occurs in the first 4 years, so 3 years left.)
XMR are disappearing and quick.

16,000 XMR at .003 costs about 48 BTC per day. That is pretty much nothing considering this market is just starting (and even in USD). I don't think that kind of buy support is difficult to attain.
As long as we keep getting volume and attention, I think the price should steadily increase (as long as whales help!).

Consider, more people are coming into the field and in 8 months or so the emission will decrease by around 31% but demand probably will grow. Just do the math, excluding outside
forces (e.g. other coins, economic collapse, legal issues, etc.) and we should be ok. Just taking into account the current demand sustaining and yet the supply decreasing, we should experience
stable growth (as long as we don't go above a fair valuation. .003 is for sure not overvalued. We can probably hit .01 BTC and still be undervalued, at current BTC prices.

I'm curious, those of you more familiar with this area, what are your thoughts regarding the variables involved (e.g. reduction in emission, miners, whales, regular "Joes", price points, etc.)?
How do you see things going forward?

IAS

[Its About Sharing]

^^^ yeah, exactly, thats why I used the phrasing "exchanged hands".... a crude analysis, yeah. I guess its not proper to say "X % of available supply" then....

And to be fair, there is a rising buy activity because we still have to absorb roughly 50 BTC of new XMR coming online each day just to stay even (but we've been going up). So, unless the manipulators are damn good at what they do, the buying is still outweighing the selling. So, we are not seeing pure manipulation, it just doesn't seem possible. I am leaning towards
"manipulation" in the sense of an orderly rise (cutting out volatility). This allows for a Smoother growth (no pun.) 

[Shrikez]

^^^ yeah, exactly, thats why I used the phrasing "exchanged hands".... a crude analysis, yeah. I guess its not proper to say "X % of available supply" then....

And to be fair, there is a rising buy activity because we still have to absorb roughly 50 BTC of new XMR coming online each day just to stay even (but we've been going up). So, unless the manipulators are damn good at what they do, the buying is still outweighing the selling. So, we are not seeing pure manipulation, it just doesn't seem possible. I am leaning towards "manipulation" in the sense of an orderly rise (cutting out volatility). This allows for a Smoother growth (no pun.)  

This is what I meant wrt market making, if there is any at all. It was a genuine compliment. There are also rarely any big buy walls, but some (staggered) sell walls are being put up when the rise is becoming to hysterical, either to provide liquidity or to slow/stop the price from climbing. I like it.
What I like most is that the price just doesn't want to drop. I've had a 1 BTC order at striking distance for 7 hours now, nuthin' 

[Quicken]

If the emission curve puts us at just under 16,000 XMR per day - https://moneroeconomy.com/wiki/emission-rate,
we will be at roughly at 11,000 at the end of 2015, then 6500 at end of 2016. (I think I read 80% of the emission occurs in the first 4 years, so 3 years left.)
XMR are disappearing and quick.

16,000 XMR at .003 costs about 48 BTC per day. That is pretty much nothing considering this market is just starting (and even in USD). I don't think that kind of buy support is difficult to attain.
As long as we keep getting volume and attention, I think the price should steadily increase (as long as whales help!).

Consider, more people are coming into the field and in 8 months or so the emission will decrease by around 31% but demand probably will grow. Just do the math, excluding outside
forces (e.g. other coins, economic collapse, legal issues, etc.) and we should be ok. Just taking into account the current demand sustaining and yet the supply decreasing, we should experience
stable growth (as long as we don't go above a fair valuation. .003 is for sure not overvalued. We can probably hit .01 BTC and still be undervalued, at current BTC prices.

I'm curious, those of you more familiar with this area, what are your thoughts regarding the variables involved (e.g. reduction in emission, miners, whales, regular "Joes", price points, etc.)?
How do you see things going forward?

IAS

Excluding tail emissions, half of the total supply will be emitted by the start of September. I think that will be a significant point in the market.

Regular Joe awareness and acceptance is a long way away. Even BTC has only some of the former, and very little of the latter. Easy Fiat/XMR exchange mechanisms would be a pre-requisite for broader usage IMHO.  

In the short term, I think DRK/Dash prominence and price pumping can be a good thing for XMR. It's exactly how I found Monero in June 2014. A friend mentioned DRK so I went and checked it out, and bought Monero instead.

Just my .02 XMR, Q

[Its About Sharing]

^^^ yeah, exactly, thats why I used the phrasing "exchanged hands".... a crude analysis, yeah. I guess its not proper to say "X % of available supply" then....

And to be fair, there is a rising buy activity because we still have to absorb roughly 50 BTC of new XMR coming online each day just to stay even (but we've been going up). So, unless the manipulators are damn good at what they do, the buying is still outweighing the selling. So, we are not seeing pure manipulation, it just doesn't seem possible. I am leaning towards "manipulation" in the sense of an orderly rise (cutting out volatility). This allows for a Smoother growth (no pun.)  

This is what I meant wrt market making, if there is any at all. It was a genuine compliment. There are also rarely any big buy walls, but some (staggered) sell walls are being put up when the rise is becoming to hysterical, either to provide liquidity or to slow/stop the price from climbing. I like it.
What I like most is that the price just doesn't want to drop. I've had a 1 BTC order at striking distance for 7 hours now, nuthin'  

Notice the support resistance we are sitting on/at/near (My lines on current price) - We are going somewhere imo (We are sitting on STRONG resistance, or near it anyway and this is exactly where we broke down last time):
DAILY Chart from Poloniex


Weekly Chart from Bitcoin Wisdom: https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/poloniex/xmrbtc

[GTO911]

All i know is this thing will explode once it does

[Anon136]

All i know is this thing will explode once it does

Honestly I vote +1 for manipulation. I dont think ive ever seen a pattern like this any where in the crypto word. This just isnt how crypto trades in my experience. Its trading like a highly liquid market. XMR is fairly liquid for crypto, but i mean liquid like a sovereign bond market. Either way it appears super technically strong if you believe in momentum trading, the direction is clear. At this point im considering over committing a little bit (relative to how i planned on apportioning my portfolio in relative terms) just so that i can turn around and sell some xmr in a week and buy back more of other things.

[GingerAle]

All i know is this thing will explode once it does

Honestly I vote +1 for manipulation. I dont think ive ever seen a pattern like this any where in the crypto word. This just isnt how crypto trades in my experience. Its trading like a highly liquid market. XMR is fairly liquid for crypto, but i mean liquid like a sovereign bond market. Either way it appears super technically strong if you believe in momentum trading, the direction is clear. At this point im considering over committing a little bit (relative to how i planned on apportioning my portfolio in relative terms) just so that i can turn around and sell some xmr in a week and buy back more of other things.

.


good luck. I can never stick my "theses", or whatever traders call this practice. It has gotten to the point where I should sell but then I go "if I ever want more xmr, I'll have to buy them at a higher price!"

^^^ yeah, exactly, thats why I used the phrasing "exchanged hands".... a crude analysis, yeah. I guess its not proper to say "X % of available supply" then....

And to be fair, there is a rising buy activity because we still have to absorb roughly 50 BTC of new XMR coming online each day just to stay even (but we've been going up). So, unless the manipulators are damn good at what they do, the buying is still outweighing the selling. So, we are not seeing pure manipulation, it just doesn't seem possible. I am leaning towards "manipulation" in the sense of an orderly rise (cutting out volatility). This allows for a Smoother growth (no pun.) 

This is what I meant wrt market making, if there is any at all. It was a genuine compliment. There are also rarely any big buy walls, but some (staggered) sell walls are being put up when the rise is becoming to hysterical, either to provide liquidity or to slow/stop the price from climbing. I like it.
What I like most is that the price just doesn't want to drop. I've had a 1 BTC order at striking distance for 7 hours now, nuthin' 

I interpreted the staggered sell walls when price hits relative highs as essentially miners dumping a portion. There are a lot of people mining monero. And if they have any significant hash power and have been mining for a while, they probably have a lot of coin.

[Gladimor]

If the emission curve puts us at just under 16,000 XMR per day - https://moneroeconomy.com/wiki/emission-rate,
we will be at roughly at 11,000 at the end of 2015, then 6500 at end of 2016. (I think I read 80% of the emission occurs in the first 4 years, so 3 years left.)
XMR are disappearing and quick.

16,000 XMR at .003 costs about 48 BTC per day. That is pretty much nothing considering this market is just starting (and even in USD). I don't think that kind of buy support is difficult to attain.
As long as we keep getting volume and attention, I think the price should steadily increase (as long as whales help!).

Consider, more people are coming into the field and in 8 months or so the emission will decrease by around 31% but demand probably will grow. Just do the math, excluding outside
forces (e.g. other coins, economic collapse, legal issues, etc.) and we should be ok. Just taking into account the current demand sustaining and yet the supply decreasing, we should experience
stable growth (as long as we don't go above a fair valuation. .003 is for sure not overvalued. We can probably hit .01 BTC and still be undervalued, at current BTC prices.

I'm curious, those of you more familiar with this area, what are your thoughts regarding the variables involved (e.g. reduction in emission, miners, whales, regular "Joes", price points, etc.)?
How do you see things going forward?

IAS

Most people that are currently mining XMR are doing so at a loss (electricity costs exceed revenue). The only logical explanation on what they do with the XMR they mine is that they hold the XMR, in expectations that it will increase in value.

I can say this because I'm a miner also.

[vokain]

If the emission curve puts us at just under 16,000 XMR per day - https://moneroeconomy.com/wiki/emission-rate,
we will be at roughly at 11,000 at the end of 2015, then 6500 at end of 2016. (I think I read 80% of the emission occurs in the first 4 years, so 3 years left.)
XMR are disappearing and quick.

16,000 XMR at .003 costs about 48 BTC per day. That is pretty much nothing considering this market is just starting (and even in USD). I don't think that kind of buy support is difficult to attain.
As long as we keep getting volume and attention, I think the price should steadily increase (as long as whales help!).

Consider, more people are coming into the field and in 8 months or so the emission will decrease by around 31% but demand probably will grow. Just do the math, excluding outside
forces (e.g. other coins, economic collapse, legal issues, etc.) and we should be ok. Just taking into account the current demand sustaining and yet the supply decreasing, we should experience
stable growth (as long as we don't go above a fair valuation. .003 is for sure not overvalued. We can probably hit .01 BTC and still be undervalued, at current BTC prices.

I'm curious, those of you more familiar with this area, what are your thoughts regarding the variables involved (e.g. reduction in emission, miners, whales, regular "Joes", price points, etc.)?
How do you see things going forward?

IAS

Most people that are currently mining XMR are doing so at a loss (electricity costs exceed revenue). The only logical explanation on what they do with the XMR they mine is that they hold the XMR, in expectations that it will increase in value.

I can say this because I'm a miner also.

Then why not buy at market instead until equilibriation? Seems like a good opportunity to me. I suppose someone will

p.s.: what is the break even price, if you'd so kindly

[Gladimor]

If the emission curve puts us at just under 16,000 XMR per day - https://moneroeconomy.com/wiki/emission-rate,
we will be at roughly at 11,000 at the end of 2015, then 6500 at end of 2016. (I think I read 80% of the emission occurs in the first 4 years, so 3 years left.)
XMR are disappearing and quick.

16,000 XMR at .003 costs about 48 BTC per day. That is pretty much nothing considering this market is just starting (and even in USD). I don't think that kind of buy support is difficult to attain.
As long as we keep getting volume and attention, I think the price should steadily increase (as long as whales help!).

Consider, more people are coming into the field and in 8 months or so the emission will decrease by around 31% but demand probably will grow. Just do the math, excluding outside
forces (e.g. other coins, economic collapse, legal issues, etc.) and we should be ok. Just taking into account the current demand sustaining and yet the supply decreasing, we should experience
stable growth (as long as we don't go above a fair valuation. .003 is for sure not overvalued. We can probably hit .01 BTC and still be undervalued, at current BTC prices.

I'm curious, those of you more familiar with this area, what are your thoughts regarding the variables involved (e.g. reduction in emission, miners, whales, regular "Joes", price points, etc.)?
How do you see things going forward?

IAS

Most people that are currently mining XMR are doing so at a loss (electricity costs exceed revenue). The only logical explanation on what they do with the XMR they mine is that they hold the XMR, in expectations that it will increase in value.

I can say this because I'm a miner also.

Then why not buy at market instead until equilibriation? Seems like a good opportunity to me. I suppose someone will

p.s.: what is the break even price, if you'd so kindly

Considering that they are mining on a R9 280x card that is pulling 200 watts at an approximate 24 hr avg rate of $0.17/KWH, the price would have to basically increase by 95% to just break even on electricity costs. Electricity costs vary per location. Typical urban areas have $0.15-$0.25/KWH electricity costs.