[XMR] Monero Speculation

[smooth]

Good news. Monkey now wants me short 30s (1 week), short spus (1 week), long btc (4 days) and gold (2 weeks).  That means xmrbtc down, short term.  He says to stay short EEM too.   Oil and gold don't have a long-term bottom yet, but gold at least has a short swing.  Oil? Meh.  Can't see much of a swing there with Iran coming back, inventories rising.

XMR can only go down. Forever.

I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that Monero will go up sometime.

I wouldn't take the other side of that bet.

I'm pretty sure my prediction is already correct, and I haven't even looked at the market.

[e-coinomist]

I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that Monero will go up sometime.

"soon" but there is that trend on the charts since 76.3 days. This is related to bitcoin's recent run, not only based upon technology release dates. 24 hours ago BTC/USD did what was exspected. 4 weeks after Silkroad auction, the timeframe guessed has been 4-6 weeks. We will see.

"don't fight the tape"

Advice suggesting that an investor should not trade against a trend. For example, if stocks have been rising and have been trending a rise, shorting it aggressively is not suggested by analysts.

[Ratatosk]

Hi, release of 0.9 may cause 1 of the 2 existing Monero GUI wallets to have problem :

Hello everyone, sorry for being so speechless in the past months. I'm writing to tell that I have no more time to focus on the development of MoneroX. Although this is the best project I ever made, I decided to discontinue it and move on to develop something else.

I sincerely love Monero as a cryptocurrency, and the community behind it: this is especially true for the people who were reporting bugs and suggesting new features to be added to MoneroX. As I'll be turning 18 this year, I will have tons of more important things to do regarding school, thus, I may only have the chance to work on one project at a time. I have already learnt a lot about software development, and decided that I should finally start working on a project which - if successful - I would release under my real name. (I haven't yet made any significant work under my own name.)

Hopefully, I will have time to occasionally check what's going on with this awesome digital currency. I will never forget the people who are/were supporting Monero and my project. Thank you for the kind comments and donations, and I wish you all the best!

Hi and thank you for the work you did on MoneroX.
Do you think your last release will be compatible with Monero 0.9 ?
Thanks :-)

At least on Windows, but probably on other systems, I don't think it properly communicates the exiting of the daemon with binaries that came after, so I doubt it. If you want to always force close the daemon process yourself in Task Manager, it may still work, but I don't know how dangerous that really is.

So, for MoneroX, it could keep working with 0.9 on Windows, but probably not on other OS.
About Monero Lightwallet, only available on Windows, I asked and wait answer.

To all people saying there was not GUI wallet yet, we could tell them : Monero 0.8 GUI wallets exist, use one of these above.
But now, with 0.9, it could be more complicated, and even less easy to make peolle try/use XMR, if no more working GUI wallet on most systems...

[Quicken]

Just to confirm, Lightwallet does work for me with the Win64 0.9 beta bitmonerod.
I'd have thought Linux users in general are more likely to be happy on the command line.
Not sure about Mac's

[jwinterm]

Just to confirm, Lightwallet does work for me with the Win64 0.9 beta bitmonerod.
I'd have thought Linux users in general are more likely to be happy on the command line.
Not sure about Mac's

It actually does work on Linux with some minor modifications.


I started going through and messing with it, and just didn't get around to pushing updates to github, since I kind of agree with Quicken. If someone is using Linux, and they're picky enough that they don't want to use mymonero or monerowallet, then I just don't imagine that user as being desperate for a GUI, but if someone is really dying to use it, let me know and I'll try to update it this weekend or something.

[Spoetnik]

What is there to speculate about here ?
I looked at the BTC/XMR charts last night and it speaks for it's self..
Monero is on life support !

And Monero has been dropping like a rock for a LONG time too !

EDIT:
See the guy above my comment ?

Thank you 2 :-)

Posts like those are against the rules.. useless crap posts.
Further more it proves my point about these guy pointlessly bumping / spamming here for attention.

[smooth]

Ratatosk, sorry for deleting your post. I didn't see that it was part of the conversation.

[dnaleor]

if 0.9 works with LightWallet, that will be my main recommandation to new users for their change.
For bigger amounts they need to print a paper wallet (moneroaddress.org)

I hope that the 'official' GUI will eventually be compatible with Trezor. That would be the ultimate usability and security.

edit: will it be possible to have a "watch only" wallet with LightWallet ?

[jwinterm]

if 0.9 works with LightWallet, that will be my main recommandation to new users for their change.
For bigger amounts they need to print a paper wallet (moneroaddress.org)

I hope that the 'official' GUI will eventually be compatible with Trezor. That would be the ultimate usability and security.

edit: will it be possible to have a "watch only" wallet with LightWallet ?

It should definitely work as well as it does with v0.9 as it does with v0.8.8.6, since all the testing I've done in the past six months has been done with recent builds from github, both Windows and Linux. I'll have to update the binaries when the release is made official. As far as watch only wallets, that's not a functionality I've played with yet, so I'm not sure.

Is there a target date for release of v0.9 yet? Before or after bitcoin adopts bip101 (jan 16 i think)?

[nioc]

Is there a target date for release of v0.9 yet? Before or after bitcoin adopts bip101 (jan 16 i think)?

On red it fp said 1-2 weeks 4 weeks ago.  So by my calculation it should be in about 2 weeks from now.

My usual clueless disclaimer applies.

[dEBRUYNE]

Is there a target date for release of v0.9 yet? Before or after bitcoin adopts bip101 (jan 16 i think)?

On red it fp said 1-2 weeks 4 weeks ago.  So by my calculation it should be in about 2 weeks from now.

My usual clueless disclaimer applies.

That's probably because the hardfork went a little bit wonky and needed some squashing of bugs. Furthermore, it is of utmost importance that the hardfork code will be implemented correctly, otherwise we could experience big issues in the future. Also, I guess that after 0.9 is released we'll probably have releases more often. 

[ArticMine]

if 0.9 works with LightWallet, that will be my main recommandation to new users for their change.
For bigger amounts they need to print a paper wallet (moneroaddress.org)

I hope that the 'official' GUI will eventually be compatible with Trezor. That would be the ultimate usability and security.

edit: will it be possible to have a "watch only" wallet with LightWallet ?

It should definitely work as well as it does with v0.9 as it does with v0.8.8.6, since all the testing I've done in the past six months has been done with recent builds from github, both Windows and Linux. I'll have to update the binaries when the release is made official. As far as watch only wallets, that's not a functionality I've played with yet, so I'm not sure.

Is there a target date for release of v0.9 yet? Before or after bitcoin adopts bip101 (jan 16 i think)?

As a GNU/Linux user who uses the command line all the time I would very much appreciate a GUI. There are also a growing number of GNU/Linux users that are not experienced with the command line at all and can be as "clueless" as any Windows or Mac OS user.  In fact I introduced Ubuntu GNU/Linux to two such users recently and they actually love it because it is way easier to maintain than Windows. As for MyMonero and MoneroWallet they are fine to store a small amount of XMR to be used for small day to day expenses using a mobile device, but they are not a replacement for running a full node. Furthermore just because someone is not familiar with the command line it does not follow that they do not have concerns about such services to store the bulk of their XMR.

So I say please keep up the excellent work with LightWallet and please do not forget us GNU/Linux users. Another group to keep in mind 32bit Windows users. Unlike GNU/Linux and Mac OS users a very significant portion of Windows users run 32bit Windows on computers with 64bit processors. This is not just XP it goes all the way to Windows 10. In fact I suspect most Windows computers with 4GB or less of RAM run 32 bit Windows.

As for the Bitcoin community implementing BIP 101, I would be very shocked is something like this happens before version 0.9 of Monero comes out, and for that matter even before Monero has an official GUI. The Bitcoin community is bitterly divided between two very poor options at opposite extremes. Status quo (small blocks, potentially infinite fees) vs XT / BIP 101 (large blocks potentially zero fees). Some would call this a civil war. The relevance of this to the Monero community is that civil wars produce refugees and we should be prepared if some come our way.

[jwinterm]

OK, I'll try and put some time into it in the next month or so, so hopefully I'll be mostly ready to update when new release is made official. Thinking of making a branch called heavywallet or darkwallet or notlightwallet or something that includes the bitmonerod executable as well (maybe even is wrapped up in the .exe file the way simplewallet is on the windows version, and just runs in the background while the notlightwallet is running). We'll see how much time I can make for it.

I'm not so sure that bitcoin isn't going to make some kind of major change before v0.9 comes out. Kind of off topic here, but not exactly, since we're speculating whether it will come before the next Monero release. Anyway, I get the feeling that Coinbase and Bitstamp et al have something up their sleeve, but we shall find out shortly...

On topic, hard to believe price is down 50+% in last couple months versus BTC, down about 3x since minipump in early August. I guess I haven't been watching price charts as much as normal. I know folks like to say that XMR is pretty stable versus USD, but man it is getting bloody out there in altcoinworld.

[smooth]

Anyway, I get the feeling that Coinbase and Bitstamp et al have something up their sleeve, but we shall find out shortly...

Coinbase and Bitstamp have been vocal in supporting BIP 101. BIP 101 includes miner voting (with a 75% threshold for activation). Given the public statements by the biggest miners, they won't vote for it and it will never activate.

But something else could happen certainly.

I know folks like to say that XMR is pretty stable versus USD, but man it is getting bloody out there in altcoinworld.

Most other alts are following the same pattern as XMR of being relatively stable against USD but down against BTC. Exceptions include LTC (up a little in USD) and RBY (up a lot), and a few others.

[jwinterm]

Taking early August as an arbitrary point in time (actually not completely arbitrary, kind of right after bitcoin started pumping), it's actually down from over 60 cents to around 37 cents today. ETH is down from $2-3 to around $0.80 today. BTS down from about $0.005 to 0.003 today. Dash down from about $3.60 to 2.20 today.

I mean, I know altcoins are pumping and dumping all the time, but I also wouldn't characterize a basket of coins dropping by 40-60% as relatively stable.

On other topic, I've heard that Chinese miners haven't been supportive of it (though KnC seems to have quasi-voiced some support). The guy who runs the mining operation in Washington state in USA, which I think is 1-2% of network did come out in support of BIP101 in some reddit posts a while ago I think. But who knows, maybe Coinbase is working with 21 Inc or something and they announce they're working with Intel to build some next gen 14 nm FinFET ASICs or something. I just don't think they'd be putting signed letters out in the public and encouraging other major companies and exchanges to voice support for it if they didn't have some kind of ace in the hole, so to speak.

[binaryFate]

[... never ending issues with Bitcoin blocksize...]
The relevance of this to the Monero community is that civil wars produce refugees and we should be prepared if some come our way.

Good post, thank you. In particular I strongly agree with the part I quoted. Spot-on metaphor.

[smooth]

Taking early August as an arbitrary point in time (actually not completely arbitrary, kind of right after bitcoin started pumping), it's actually down from over 60 cents to around 37 cents today. ETH is down from $2-3 to around $0.80 today. BTS down from about $0.005 to 0.003 today. Dash down from about $3.60 to 2.20 today.

I mean, I know altcoins are pumping and dumping all the time, but I also wouldn't characterize a basket of coins dropping by 40-60% as relatively stable.

Who knows. You can pick different start dates and get different conclusions, though I'd question your particular picks as been pretty far from representatitive. BTS had a huge pump in August and Ethereum announced running out of money (though it was widely suspected already) in late September. Excluding LTC from any basket of alts is pretty questionable too.

Nevertheless I'm certainly not going to claim that alts are doing well in late 2015. They're clearly not.

On other topic, I've heard that Chinese miners haven't been supportive of it (though KnC seems to have quasi-voiced some support). The guy who runs the mining operation in Washington state in USA, which I think is 1-2% of network did come out in support of BIP101 in some reddit posts a while ago I think. But who knows, maybe Coinbase is working with 21 Inc or something and they announce they're working with Intel to build some next gen 14 nm FinFET ASICs or something. I just don't think they'd be putting signed letters out in the public and encouraging other major companies and exchanges to voice support for it if they didn't have some kind of ace in the hole, so to speak.

Here are the stats: http://bitcoinstats.com/network/votes/

BIP101 has effectively zero miner votes. It would require 75% votes over the course of a week to activate. BIP100 does have significant miner votes, but requires 90% over three months to activate, and is nowhere near that (and recently has even been falling a bit). So neither of these appear likely to go into deployment any time soon, but as you say things may change rapidly, especially with BIP101 where only a week of voting is needed.

[phishead]

[... never ending issues with Bitcoin blocksize...]
The relevance of this to the Monero community is that civil wars produce refugees and we should be prepared if some come our way.

Good post, thank you. In particular I strongly agree with the part I quoted. Spot-on metaphor.

If something like this were to happen in the near future, what would happen exactly?  If one of these options were to be implemented into bitcoin and people started getting out of btc, in y'alls opinion would it be fast dump or slow decline in bitcoin usage?  Even if something drastic were to happen when Bitcoin forks to something new, I can't imagine it would make that many people to drop bitcoin in general... I've never really understood the implications of the fork in general.  Isn't it mainly a dispute amongst the miners?

[rpietila]

When it gets solved either (or any) way, the likely result is relief on the markets and a nice boom in bitcoin prices. Cf. XMR had the emission issue which first demolished the price to 1/4 of the previous, and when it was solved, price rose back to 0.004.

Our current lull is due to everyone thinking they have enough, and perhaps renewed hope in BTC, not many newcomers coming, 0.9 delayed and situation is not known except to a few (and others cannot decipher their statements nor believe they are truthful), and even because CK has not yet opened to general public.

[Siexpert]

Where can I find more information about CryptoKingdom, especially about how to play the game? I registered on the site a few months ago, but I couldn't figure out what to do next.