[XMR] Monero Speculation

[kazuki49]

Monero has nothing to lose from a BTC rally, it will put more eyes on crypto where it shines. But if all we see is just a pump on BTC and the old altcoin (LTC, PPC, NMC, etc) then its just pumping again to be followed by dumps (just ppl after making more money) and not a genuine rally signaling widespread crypto adoption. tl;dr nothing to be excited on the long term if an e-cash like Monero does not follow the BTC rise.

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[Hueristic]

[...]

BTER is NOT OK. Trading there is rolling the dice.

I'm of the opinion the price is not recovering because new money is not going to buy BTC while it's bubbling. That is the reason I have been waiting.

Isn't bubbling by definition only possible if money is going to buy?

Any smart investor buys low I don't see your point.

I would argue that Bitcoin is not bubbling as you put it.  It feels like a slow and steady uptrend based on recent developments as well as Chinese economic situation.

Well lets check back in a month and see who's right.

[smoothie]

Monero has nothing to lose from a BTC rally, it will put more eyes on crypto where it shines. But if all we see is just a pump on BTC and the old altcoin (LTC, PPC, NMC, etc) then its just pumping again to be followed by dumps (just ppl after making more money) and not a genuine rally signaling widespread crypto adoption. tl;dr nothing to be excited on the long term if an e-cash like Monero does not follow the BTC rise.

Yeah I agree. I hope bitcoin gets more attention. Basically it is the trailblazer for crypto and cryptocoins to come (monero being one of them existing today already).

This bitcoin rally looks like it will be a march up....and not a bubble....yet.

XMR will get hammered at first...but it will have its day.

[jehst]

BTC is undeniably the fastest and most trust-free way to get your money out of China and out of Chinese currency. I have to assume that some number of rich Chinese people will use it. The spread in prices between Chinese and non-Chinese exchanges may be proof that people are willing to do it at a loss.

[wpalczynski]

BTC is undeniably the fastest and most trust-free way to get your money out of China and out of Chinese currency. I have to assume that some number of rich Chinese people will use it. The spread in prices between Chinese and non-Chinese exchanges may be proof that people are willing to do it at a loss.

Get ready for another china ban. :p

[owm123]

The reality is, is that people aren't going to see what monero brings to the table unless it is put into action... and what better way to show it's true anonymity powers than in the world of .onion sites?  I personally don't care for such things or drugs of any kind, but a lot of people in the world does... this is how bitcoin got it's name from the get go, personally I can see this type of thing helping Monero, even though we would probably have to deal with the implications of a "bad rep" just like bitcoin had to get over.

I dont think you will see any significant xmr presence in darknet any time soon. At the moment, that how it looks for monero in darknet: https://i.imgur.com/e4FI4Vh.png

Other search engines give  few results to dead onion links at this point with some mentions of monero. The point I'm making is that monero virtually does not exist in darknet. And I'm not talking about any darknet markets, but just normal onion sites about monero, such as onion monero wallet, onion blockchain view website, onion btc<->xmr exchange site, etc.

The only onion websites that I know and are about monero (or mention it in some way) are:

http://moneroxzfonkazxc.onion/     which is:  http://moneronodes.i2p.xyz/
http://safedice2ge73n2g.onion/     which is:  https://safedice.com/
http://ucphth5lasyp4enj.onion/      which is:  http://www.bitcoinisnotanonymous.com/

Hmm... I remember seeing that picture a little while back and all of that does make sense, but maybe the people who browse the darknet don't really do anything else besides get high and sell stuff on there.  Point being, is that they wouldn't pay attention to forums like these and look for a better alternative; hell, I believe that they really don't care as long as they are getting paid in the short term look of things.

But this could be bad/good for monero... It could mean that if/when monero gets more popular and more people start using it, news article won't/couldn't just report that monero is used ONLY for the darknet and that it's ONLY for bad people.  Then again, if it did reach and influence tor users, then that would probably mean a faster adoption rate.

Hard to tell which is the right course of action, but I personally like seeing that monero starts out on a clean slate and doesn't associate itself with drug lords.

I use tor a lot, and not for browsing any markets or any shady stuff. And many privacy oriented people do same. Markets  are maybe the most publicized nature of tor, unfortunately.

And regarding money, in tor they have already plenty of bitcoin mixes, tumblers, cleaners, scammers, etc. They all are charging fees for theirs services (or scams). Because of that, they they will never allow monero to take btc place. Poor privacy and anonymity is perfect for them. Simply because if ppl started using xmr in the dark markets, they would loose their purpose and income.  Also its good for law enforcement which uses bitcoin's traceability to chase bed people in tor.

[8XMR]

Is there any reason on why XMR is NOT listed in btc38???

Chinese will get pretty desperate to enter in cryptos again sooner than most people imagine...

We've tried mailing them before, you can read the response(s) in the following reddit thread:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/3d33a9/btc38/

Some helped but we need lot more people. How come many more of you helped contacting Tutanota than BTC38?

It frustrates me. This quote explains the feelings of some Chinese:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=604293.msg10184079#msg10184079

New investors from China can be attracted (GUI and new db will help much) but we need to make them feel welcomed. Official website should have some Chinese.

Several months I built China focused Monero website that I wait to launch until getmonero.org adds translated Chinese page to link to. My page will build community but official page still needs Chinese. At least landing (already translated) and download page should have Chinese. Translators worked hard and did good job: https://forum.getmonero.org/9/work-in-progress/329/translation-of-content-on-getmonero-org-into-chinese. Fluffypony say this can be merged after this is done: https://github.com/denniss/monero-site/tree/multi-lang-integration but it taking long time.

DASH is inferior to XMR based on cryptography but they beat us on marketing. It hard to attract people to help when official website wont even merge translation work done long ago. DASH have professional looking marketing many language already.

[dnaleor]

ok, time for some scenario's and guessing

Let me say at the beginning that this is pure speculation, and I assume XMR manages to somehow establish itself as the best anoncoin before one of these scenario's start. The scenario's I can see taking placing from april/may 2016 onwards.

***

SCENARIO 1: Mega BTC bubble:

If the influx of new users is very very large, a lot of altcoins will be overlooked. Chances are that XMR will be overlooked also.
In this case, XMR may go down in BTC terms, but I expect it to go up in USD terms. BTC will be established as "the one and only cryptocurrency" and XMR will be in the shadows, a bit like tor (or I2P) versus regular internet users.

***

SCENARIO 2: Small BTC bubble:

If the number of new users is not that big, and we see a bubble to maybe 2000 USD, then at first XMR will go down in BTC terms, but I expect that a significant number of "old time bitcoiners" who have a nice stash want to diversify. They don't necessarily want to cash out all in fiat or precious metals, so some of them will allocate a part of their BTC to buy the promising alts, so at the end of the BTC rally, XMR could follow the old LTC pattern and do a moonshot in BTC terms.

***

SCENARIO 3: consolidation of BTC (+ small hype due to block halving or a little decline)

Actually, I think this one is the most likely. Why I don't see a BTC bubble in 2016? 2013 was crazy and the market needs time to digest this. Also, everybody seems to expect a bubble due to block halving. But I think a lot of people are buying their coins in advance now, so I think the whole block halving will be a disappointing event. Also, "halving of emission" is nothing to be proud of or like: the more halving happen before cryptocurrency reaches mass adoption, the harder it will become to reach that mass adoption. People will start to realize this.

Also, BTC is pretty much known by the tech community. They maybe don't know the details, but they know. If they were interested, they would join us no matter the price. So the next step is a difficult one: bringing in regular people (who aren't nerds, anarchists or coders). This isn't something that can happen overnight. We will need to see a lot more companies doing something with BTC, we will need to see it becoming more user friendly, etc. This won't be a big bubble at the start. It will be a slow process. This is how I potentially see BTC doing in the next 12-18 months:


This would also be a perfect scenario for XMR to grow, both in BTC and USD terms. people will slowly start to hedge against BTC by buying XMR. This won't be a big bubble, probably a rather slow rise of XMR in BTC terms.

***

BONUS: my "fair value" calculation for XMR:
I know this is BS, but it's fun to do

BTC was very small and almost only used at dark markets and as "the ideal cryptocurreny for anarchists" in 2012. it had a value around 5-10 USD. This seems like a fair valuation if XMR manages to attract that community.
Looking to coinmarketcap, we see LTC with a market cap of 135 million USD. And this is declining. It has been bigger in the past. LTC is only surviving due to the large liquidity. this liquidity is used for mixing coins. This can change fast: if people start to acknowledge the value of XMR (the anarchists and dark markets), XMR could get a lot of liquidity while LTC is in a downwards spiral. If we manage to become the dominant "altcoin" which certainly has more features than LTC, a market cap of 250 million USD doesn't seem to outlandish. With 10 million coins, this would mean 25 USD per XMR.


***

Am I too bullish? Am I talking bullshit perhaps?  Let me know

[wpalczynski]

Is there any reason on why XMR is NOT listed in btc38???

Chinese will get pretty desperate to enter in cryptos again sooner than most people imagine...

We've tried mailing them before, you can read the response(s) in the following reddit thread:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/3d33a9/btc38/

Some helped but we need lot more people. How come many more of you helped contacting Tutanota than BTC38?

It frustrates me. This quote explains the feelings of some Chinese:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=604293.msg10184079#msg10184079

New investors from China can be attracted (GUI and new db will help much) but we need to make them feel welcomed. Official website should have some Chinese.

Several months I built China focused Monero website that I wait to launch until getmonero.org adds translated Chinese page to link to. My page will build community but official page still needs Chinese. At least landing (already translated) and download page should have Chinese. Translators worked hard and did good job: https://forum.getmonero.org/9/work-in-progress/329/translation-of-content-on-getmonero-org-into-chinese. Fluffypony say this can be merged after this is done: https://github.com/denniss/monero-site/tree/multi-lang-integration but it taking long time.

DASH is inferior to XMR based on cryptography but they beat us on marketing. It hard to attract people to help when official website wont even merge translation work done long ago. DASH have professional looking marketing many language already.

We will get there.  The work you have done is appreciated and will surely be used to help drive adoption.  Unfortunately some things are taking longer to get finished than expected.

[8XMR]

Is there any reason on why XMR is NOT listed in btc38???

Chinese will get pretty desperate to enter in cryptos again sooner than most people imagine...

We've tried mailing them before, you can read the response(s) in the following reddit thread:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/3d33a9/btc38/

Some helped but we need lot more people. How come many more of you helped contacting Tutanota than BTC38?

It frustrates me. This quote explains the feelings of some Chinese:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=604293.msg10184079#msg10184079

New investors from China can be attracted (GUI and new db will help much) but we need to make them feel welcomed. Official website should have some Chinese.

Several months I built China focused Monero website that I wait to launch until getmonero.org adds translated Chinese page to link to. My page will build community but official page still needs Chinese. At least landing (already translated) and download page should have Chinese. Translators worked hard and did good job: https://forum.getmonero.org/9/work-in-progress/329/translation-of-content-on-getmonero-org-into-chinese. Fluffypony say this can be merged after this is done: https://github.com/denniss/monero-site/tree/multi-lang-integration but it taking long time.

DASH is inferior to XMR based on cryptography but they beat us on marketing. It hard to attract people to help when official website wont even merge translation work done long ago. DASH have professional looking marketing many language already.

We will get there.  The work you have done is appreciated and will surely be used to help drive adoption.  Unfortunately some things are taking longer to get finished than expected.

Thank you. I tell myself delay help market easier because new db and GUI closer. My concern is lose first mover advantage for "anonymous" coin in China. We know DASH crypto is low quality, but many people cannot tell difference. Small delay okay. Long delay bad.

[wpalczynski]

I agree.  Especially now that things seem to be stirring in China again with regards to Bitcoin.

[americanpegasus]

ok, time for some scenario's and guessing

Am I too bullish? Am I talking bullshit perhaps?  Let me know  

 
 
You forced my hand.  My top scientists at my firm have been working on a special report, but we wanted to keep it confidential until the beginning of the month.  Understand what I'm about to show you likely goes against my firm's self-interests, and may get me in serious trouble with the board. 
 
Classified: SECRET^{SUPER-DOUBLEGIGA}

[kurious]

in serious trouble with the board? Maybe.

But not with the bored.   

[LucyLovesCrypto]

Pegasus that graphic makes me want to cross the dragon pit and get the gold! Monero is one of a kind just like your video game graphic. In most video games the player moves from left to right in situations like this not right to left.

[jehst]

FWIW: In case BTC rises to the moon, even if you HODL DOGE or Maxcoin will do you good, believe me...

Yeah, that's part of why I'm bullish on LTC. I think during a big crypto rally, people just throw money at everything. They won't really be examining whether DOGE or Maxcoin is viable as a long-term technology during a mania. Every piece of shit bitcoin stock and altcoin will go up. The smaller the market cap, the more doublings become possible. Something like XMR or Counterparty can go up 10x against bitcoin.  .013 doesn't seem that farfetched. XMR has already made it to .01 XMR/BTC in its short history.

[dEBRUYNE]

Is there any reason on why XMR is NOT listed in btc38???

Chinese will get pretty desperate to enter in cryptos again sooner than most people imagine...

We've tried mailing them before, you can read the response(s) in the following reddit thread:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/3d33a9/btc38/

Some helped but we need lot more people. How come many more of you helped contacting Tutanota than BTC38?

It frustrates me. This quote explains the feelings of some Chinese:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=604293.msg10184079#msg10184079

New investors from China can be attracted (GUI and new db will help much) but we need to make them feel welcomed. Official website should have some Chinese.

Several months I built China focused Monero website that I wait to launch until getmonero.org adds translated Chinese page to link to. My page will build community but official page still needs Chinese. At least landing (already translated) and download page should have Chinese. Translators worked hard and did good job: https://forum.getmonero.org/9/work-in-progress/329/translation-of-content-on-getmonero-org-into-chinese. Fluffypony say this can be merged after this is done: https://github.com/denniss/monero-site/tree/multi-lang-integration but it taking long time.

DASH is inferior to XMR based on cryptography but they beat us on marketing. It hard to attract people to help when official website wont even merge translation work done long ago. DASH have professional looking marketing many language already.

We will get there.  The work you have done is appreciated and will surely be used to help drive adoption.  Unfortunately some things are taking longer to get finished than expected.

Furthermore, if I recall correctly fluffypony was waiting for the jekyll update to integrate everything.

[dEBRUYNE]

It would be nice if we could bottom ~0.0013, that's exactly on the following support line. In addition, we also have some support at 0.00131.

[nioc]

It would be nice if we could bottom ~0.0013, that's exactly on the following support line. In addition, we also have some support at 0.00131.

^^Posted about 45 min before another 10k dump down to 134.  There I got enough to complete the extension on my Monero house.  However I still need furnishings. 

[dEBRUYNE]

It would be nice if we could bottom ~0.0013, that's exactly on the following support line. In addition, we also have some support at 0.00131.

^^Posted about 45 min before another 10k dump down to 134.  There I got enough to complete the extension on my Monero house.  However I still need furnishings. 

FYI: It was posted after the dump :-P

[nioc]

Yes I see that now.  The time isn't set right for me here on BCT