[XMR] Monero Speculation

[digicoin]

I am tired of price speculation now. It is too early to expect a stable rise as a result of a wider user adoption. We miss a lot of things to make Monero a usable currency.

+ A well-funded development team although I like decentralized teams more
+ An usable layman-friendly desktop wallet
+ A BitPay-like payment processor
+ Set of libraries that could help expand Monero ecosystem like CoPay in Bitcoin world.

I support the ideas of platform-first. 0.9 release can be a big milestone. Then please think about which features should be included into 1.0 release and how we can fund developers to have those features implemented. Short iteration is a good thing.

[Hueristic]

Monero is only the vehicle for the next phase of the cypherpunk/crypto-anarchist/radical capitalist/anti-authoritarian r3VOLution.

 
  
   Some of us openly have government jobs (despite being small potato peons) and have security clearances to worry about, so as a matter of record I personally would strongly disagree with all of those statements.  Call it whatever you like though, fortunately math is not a matter of opinion.    
  
I personally believe we will see $2,000 Moneros by 2020, possibly a little higher.  I think $20,000 Moneros come before 2025, and $200,000 Moneros come before 2030.  These time tables might move a lot faster depending on a variety of factors.  I think that I can see what Monero's 'fractal shape' might be though... and well,  

   

Really? Your government doesn't give you the right to free speech, assembly the formation of militia and the power to change it by committee?  Which one is it? Was it formed by the blood of patriots in a revolution against a oppressive dictatorship by any chance?

[smoothie]

Monero is only the vehicle for the next phase of the cypherpunk/crypto-anarchist/radical capitalist/anti-authoritarian r3VOLution.

 
  
   Some of us openly have government jobs (despite being small potato peons) and have security clearances to worry about, so as a matter of record I personally would strongly disagree with all of those statements.  Call it whatever you like though, fortunately math is not a matter of opinion.    
  
I personally believe we will see $2,000 Moneros by 2020, possibly a little higher.  I think $20,000 Moneros come before 2025, and $200,000 Moneros come before 2030.  These time tables might move a lot faster depending on a variety of factors.  I think that I can see what Monero's 'fractal shape' might be though... and well,  

Try rephrase it in ounces of gold or acres of land. For all we know 1 trillion $ might only buy a loaf of bread in those years.

[chennan]

Monero is only the vehicle for the next phase of the cypherpunk/crypto-anarchist/radical capitalist/anti-authoritarian r3VOLution.

 
 
  Some of us openly have government jobs (despite being small potato peons) and have security clearances to worry about, so as a matter of record I personally would strongly disagree with all of those statements.  Call it whatever you like though, fortunately math is not a matter of opinion.   
 
I personally believe we will see $2,000 Moneros by 2020, possibly a little higher.  I think $20,000 Moneros come before 2025, and $200,000 Moneros come before 2030.  These time tables might move a lot faster depending on a variety of factors.  I think that I can see what Monero's 'fractal shape' might be though... and well, 

Idk, it really becomes a question at first if people who are transacting payments in the crypto world value privacy more than the big entity that bitcoin is as of right now... It would take a whole lot more people who are in Monero for the long run (more than just a pump and dump tactic) to make those prices become a reality.  Unfortunately, I can only see those prices become a reality if the dark market accepts it as it's second "most favorable" payment method...

The reality is, is that people aren't going to see what monero brings to the table unless it is put into action... and what better way to show it's true anonymity powers than in the world of .onion sites?  I personally don't care for such things or drugs of any kind, but a lot of people in the world does... this is how bitcoin got it's name from the get go, personally I can see this type of thing helping Monero, even though we would probably have to deal with the implications of a "bad rep" just like bitcoin had to get over.

[languagehasmeaning]

Above comments about CT are correct. However, even with CT, using math an observer can still verify that the coins spent are equal to the coins received. You just can't tell the number.

It's not a bug.  It's a feature. 

An important feature! With Zerocash I believe this is not the case. Not being able to verify the circulation of a currency is a scary thing.

[smoothie]

Above comments about CT are correct. However, even with CT, using math an observer can still verify that the coins spent are equal to the coins received. You just can't tell the number.

It's not a bug.  It's a feature. 

An important feature! With Zerocash I believe this is not the case. Not being able to verify the circulation of a currency is a scary thing.

In essence it is "TOO DARK" or "TOO PRIVATE".

Monero is a good balance of being black and white. 

[iCEBREAKER]

Above comments about CT are correct. However, even with CT, using math an observer can still verify that the coins spent are equal to the coins received. You just can't tell the number.

It's not a bug.  It's a feature. 

An important feature! With Zerocash I believe this is not the case. Not being able to verify the circulation of a currency is a scary thing.

In essence it is "TOO DARK" or "TOO PRIVATE".

Monero is a good balance of being black and white. 

Monero follows the middle path of modular optional transparency, between Bitcon's radical transparency (unitary knowledge) and Zerocash's radical opacity (zero knowledge).

By doing so, it enables use cases for which Bitcoin's and/or Zerocoin's inherent properties would be sub-optimal or even deal-killers.   

The first such use case is for an e-cash composed of indistinguishable (yet miraculously auditable) units, which are thus guaranteed 100% interchangeable for all socioeconomic purposes.

Some would call this property ('strong' or 'exhaustive') fungibility, but others feel that term must be reserved solely for describing a feature of low-level protocol interactions.

[smoothie]

~Monero: "It doesn't matter if you're black or white."

[OrientA]

~Monero: "It doesn't matter if you're black or white."

It is a very dark, anonymous coin, which is in active development, and has great community support.

[pa]

~Monero: "It doesn't matter if you're black or white."

-listed.

[phishead]

Since we hit 275 now, you say we go revisit ~250 and then go to 290 and then down (down to where) ?

It already exceeded my upside by a small amount, but my timing model says it is likely to turn down starting today.  Thus today would be the correct time to rotate from BTC to XMR.  If it continues to rise past the expected turning point, 292, 300 are resistance levels, and a conservative estimation of the next top, if it drops as timing models indicate.  The support levels are 266, 250, 244, 220.  My current expectation is that the top is in, for the next few weeks, and I do not expect a pullback below 240.  Cycle times have been running about 3 to 4 months, top to top, and that is my best estimate of the next cycle time.  My alternative scenario is for 3 weeks of continued climb, starting late next week from a slightly lower level, probably touching 300 before a downtrend begins.  My own strategy is to rotate 60% of btc into XMR today, and hold out 40% to rotate near XBTUSD 300, in case the second scenario is more accurate.  In either case, when timing models indicate a BTC bottom is in, I will then rotate the position (a small trading fraction of my overall holding position) from BTC into XMR.

I don't understand. You sell BTC to buy XMR when BTC is topping, and sell BTC to buy XMR when BTC is bottoming, what's the logic behind that?

I believe it is based on the pattern that when btc goes down Monero is priced higher in btc and when btc goes up Monero is priced lower in btc.  

Is this pattern correct?  Several people say they have observed it.  If it exists, will it continue?  Don't try this at home  It seems most people hold a large % of their coins and trade a small %.

I would imagine that if bitcoin where to go up in prices, that it would mean a higher price for monero; but obviously that hasn't happened.  To me, that seems like a reasonable assumption, because if the prices in XMR:BTC stays the same but price for bitcoin goes up, wouldn't that mean higher prices for XMR as well to even out the ratio?

[owm123]

The reality is, is that people aren't going to see what monero brings to the table unless it is put into action... and what better way to show it's true anonymity powers than in the world of .onion sites?  I personally don't care for such things or drugs of any kind, but a lot of people in the world does... this is how bitcoin got it's name from the get go, personally I can see this type of thing helping Monero, even though we would probably have to deal with the implications of a "bad rep" just like bitcoin had to get over.

I dont think you will see any significant xmr presence in darknet any time soon. At the moment, that how it looks for monero in darknet: https://i.imgur.com/e4FI4Vh.png

Other search engines give  few results to dead onion links at this point with some mentions of monero. The point I'm making is that monero virtually does not exist in darknet. And I'm not talking about any darknet markets, but just normal onion sites about monero, such as onion monero wallet, onion blockchain view website, onion btc<->xmr exchange site, etc.

The only onion websites that I know and are about monero (or mention it in some way) are:

http://moneroxzfonkazxc.onion/     which is:  http://moneronodes.i2p.xyz/
http://safedice2ge73n2g.onion/     which is:  https://safedice.com/
http://ucphth5lasyp4enj.onion/      which is:  http://www.bitcoinisnotanonymous.com/

[chennan]

The reality is, is that people aren't going to see what monero brings to the table unless it is put into action... and what better way to show it's true anonymity powers than in the world of .onion sites?  I personally don't care for such things or drugs of any kind, but a lot of people in the world does... this is how bitcoin got it's name from the get go, personally I can see this type of thing helping Monero, even though we would probably have to deal with the implications of a "bad rep" just like bitcoin had to get over.

I dont think you will see any significant xmr presence in darknet any time soon. At the moment, that how it looks for monero in darknet: https://i.imgur.com/e4FI4Vh.png

Other search engines give  few results to dead onion links at this point with some mentions of monero. The point I'm making is that monero virtually does not exist in darknet. And I'm not talking about any darknet markets, but just normal onion sites about monero, such as onion monero wallet, onion blockchain view website, onion btc<->xmr exchange site, etc.

The only onion websites that I know and are about monero (or mention it in some way) are:

http://moneroxzfonkazxc.onion/     which is:  http://moneronodes.i2p.xyz/
http://safedice2ge73n2g.onion/     which is:  https://safedice.com/
http://ucphth5lasyp4enj.onion/      which is:  http://www.bitcoinisnotanonymous.com/

Hmm... I remember seeing that picture a little while back and all of that does make sense, but maybe the people who browse the darknet don't really do anything else besides get high and sell stuff on there.  Point being, is that they wouldn't pay attention to forums like these and look for a better alternative; hell, I believe that they really don't care as long as they are getting paid in the short term look of things.

But this could be bad/good for monero... It could mean that if/when monero gets more popular and more people start using it, news article won't/couldn't just report that monero is used ONLY for the darknet and that it's ONLY for bad people.  Then again, if it did reach and influence tor users, then that would probably mean a faster adoption rate.

Hard to tell which is the right course of action, but I personally like seeing that monero starts out on a clean slate and doesn't associate itself with drug lords.

[smooth]

but maybe the people who browse the darknet don't really do anything else besides get high and sell stuff on there.

That's certainly not the case. I use the blockchain.info onion link because I don't want them logging my IP every time I look up a bitcoin transaction. Has nothing to do with drugs or selling stuff.

[jehst]

As usual, the altcoin gamblers are dumping their coins to get in on the bitcoin rally.

[chennan]

but maybe the people who browse the darknet don't really do anything else besides get high and sell stuff on there.

That's certainly not the case. I use the blockchain.info onion link because I don't want them logging my IP every time I look up a bitcoin transaction. Has nothing to do with drugs or selling stuff.

Oh yeah, no, I should've made it clear that I was talking about the dark "markets" on there that transact goods... not the darknet entirely.  I've browsed .onion sites (markets) before, being just curious what was out there; and what it mostly seemed like was real sketchy business transactions... Now keep in mind, I was just going through the "hidden wiki" which can't be THAT secret to begin (I'm not a fool); but just in general, I would think people who are downloading tor to go buy stuff on the darknet are primarily in the hunt for mischievous items to buy.

Now what would be really cool is to see on the "hidden wiki" a sort of ebay type of place that only helps sellers sell legal items... and just boast that they do nothing more than to help you protect your privacy of what and where you are buying them.  Mind you I didn't really look that closely into all of the stuff out there on the darknet, just wanted to read up what people are doing on there (Probably about a year ago, so it's probably changed a lot recently).

[klee]

http://krebsonsecurity.com/2015/10/talktalk-hackers-demanded-80k-in-bitcoin/

When we will start seeing news like this but for Monero, it is time to sell a kidney for XMR...

[generalizethis]

http://krebsonsecurity.com/2015/10/talktalk-hackers-demanded-80k-in-bitcoin/

When we will start seeing news like this but for Monero, it is time to sell a kidney for XMR...

What's sad is when the first monero dice site operator ran off with our coins, I thought, "Well, fuck, we're never catching him unless he likes to brag."

[pa]

http://krebsonsecurity.com/2015/10/talktalk-hackers-demanded-80k-in-bitcoin/

When we will start seeing news like this but for Monero, it is time to sell a kidney for XMR...

Someday people may actually do that. I see no obstacle to sperm and egg markets using XMR. Women are often underpaid for their eggs for lack of a free market.

[wpalczynski]

Above comments about CT are correct. However, even with CT, using math an observer can still verify that the coins spent are equal to the coins received. You just can't tell the number.

It's not a bug.  It's a feature.  

An important feature! With Zerocash I believe this is not the case. Not being able to verify the circulation of a currency is a scary thing.

In essence it is "TOO DARK" or "TOO PRIVATE".

Monero is a good balance of being black and white.  

With the new developments from Shen Monero will do everything zerocash proposes to do without the risk of an infinite supply secretly being created.