[XMR] Monero Speculation

[chennan]

For constant emission: I doubt it'll ever work. If there are no (real or perceived) benefits for early adopters, there probably won't ever be enough early adopters to get it off the ground, especially when competing with others that do provide benefits.

a constant emission scheme would temper speculative investment a lot in the first years, which should result in building the tech, building people who are interested in the tech, building a decentralized mining network because development of ASICs wouldn't be worth it (yet).

on the other hand, this would probably result in lower security as well, in the first years.

maybe Monero has indeed the best of both worlds. Time will tell.

The issue is you have to motivate people to get involved with something that, in the beginning, is really nothing. 1Credit? I mean nothing against it. There is infinite emission to happen in the future, so I don't feel shut out. I also don't feel any urgency. If I wait a year, or two, or three, there will still be infinite emission in the future.

Obviously this is oversimplified, and good marketing could create motivation; scarcity and "get in early" aren't the only ways to attract people. Still this seems like a major obstacle both in the abstract and in practice.

I just feel that the purpose of "getting in early" is pretty pointless to me, IMO. The whole purpose of mining a limited currency like Bitcoin or monero is to ensure the safety of the network by confirming the transactions. If you give early miners a lot of XMR in the early phases, in this case, wouldn't this mean that network security will be really secure during the first couple of years, and then over time miners will start flaking out when halving takes place because they consider it not "worth it" anymore?

Sorry if it's a stupid question, I've never really take the time to mine or try to learn about it that much, but to me this seems like it would be the case.

[smooth]

For constant emission: I doubt it'll ever work. If there are no (real or perceived) benefits for early adopters, there probably won't ever be enough early adopters to get it off the ground, especially when competing with others that do provide benefits.

a constant emission scheme would temper speculative investment a lot in the first years, which should result in building the tech, building people who are interested in the tech, building a decentralized mining network because development of ASICs wouldn't be worth it (yet).

on the other hand, this would probably result in lower security as well, in the first years.

maybe Monero has indeed the best of both worlds. Time will tell.

The issue is you have to motivate people to get involved with something that, in the beginning, is really nothing. 1Credit? I mean nothing against it. There is infinite emission to happen in the future, so I don't feel shut out. I also don't feel any urgency. If I wait a year, or two, or three, there will still be infinite emission in the future.

Obviously this is oversimplified, and good marketing could create motivation; scarcity and "get in early" aren't the only ways to attract people. Still this seems like a major obstacle both in the abstract and in practice.

I just feel that the purpose of "getting in early" is pretty pointless to me, IMO. The whole purpose of mining a limited currency like Bitcoin or monero is to ensure the safety of the network by confirming the transactions. If you give early miners a lot of XMR in the early phases, in this case, wouldn't this mean that network security will be really secure during the first couple of years, and then over time miners will start flaking out when halving takes place because they consider it not "worth it" anymore?

Sorry if it's a stupid question, I've never really take the time to mine or try to learn about it that much, but to me this seems like it would be the case.

I think the theory goes that as the network grows in terms of utility, the value of each unit should go up. Take Bitcoin for example. At the beginning the mining reward was 50, but 50 BTC was literally worth nothing.  Now the mining reward is "only" 25, soon to be 12.5, but 25 BTC or 12.5 BTC is worth quite a bit more.

[iCEBREAKER]

Nice volume and price up from what now looks like a definitive bottom test in spite of BTC rise...

Much more positive.

Not sure if it is the bottom. The price is around $0.4 for about a year now. It is one of the stablest coin in the world.

Is this how you feel better about your investment crashing? Justifying it by saying it's been stable in USD?
XMR has not been stable. It's been crashing hard. Except for a brief period in the pre-exchange era the price is at all time lows. I'm just sitting here hoping it won't break 0.001 support.

If XMR is not going to outperform BTC why not just own BTC instead? If it's USD you want it makes more sense to hold BTC as long as the ratio falls. I'm not going to be happy with XMR at $1, $10 or even $100 if the XMR/BTC ratio crashes. I never watch the USD price, is seems completely irrelevant.

A falling XMR/BTC ratio indicates failure to compete in the cryptocurrency space.

USD price "seems completely irrelevant" only as long as BTC isn't crashing back under $100 or mooning above $1000 again.

Cherry-picking a window of comparison proves nothing.

My avg cost is <0.001 BTC per XMR, so I don't need to "feel better about [my] investment crashing."

OTOH, it is very nice that my investment in XMR has simultaneously given me exposure to potentially vast crypto upside while preserving my fiat (aka global reserve currency needed to pay bills) spending power.

Such a sweet spot tells me I have picked a good way to hedge against the irrationality of the market as we wait for Crypto Kingdom Come.

Any TA guy can confirm that building a solid base of support over extended time periods, whether in terms of BTC or USD, is auspicious for possible break-out events.

[e-coinomist]

What are your thoughts on the price of monero when bitcoin halves?

Bitcoin will get pumped up way before the halving. Monero will continue loosing BTC value, as usual.
Will be crucial to get out of the halving pump right bevore it plummets. Do not personally see any added value in devalueing of ASIC investment's revenue. This will merely move a lot of formerly expensive mining equipent to the waste dump.
Where is the "created value" from devalueing formerly expensive hardware investments? Can only spot investments getting wasted in a single step (compare with continually adjusted block rewards)
(obviously fishing for an opposing argument stating against this thesis, 5am in the mourning local time, using slightly damaged english. There is a bagel and some coffee awaiting me soon.)

[XMRpromotions]

ABout tutanota, there is also some petition to accept xmr for donations:
https://tutanota.uservoice.com/forums/237921-general/suggestions/9968298-accept-monero-xmr-for-donations

But its been quite about this for a while now. So not sure, what's happening with that.

https://twitter.com/Tutanota_de/status/660955691620900864
That Tweet is about a month old. You may want to ask XMRpromotions for an update since he is the one who appears to have helped facilitate this decision.

The exact timetable is out of my control (their engineers are working on it). As the Tweet implies they are also working on Bitcoin integration. I forwarded an update to some people on the dev team last week so they can provide any technical assistance that is requested by Tutanota.

I have been less vocal lately but I am still working busy behind the scenes. Hopefully closing some of my additional leads will become easier after 0.9 is released.

Many of you noticed the Monero donation link on the I2P site was corrected from monero.com to monero.org
https://twitter.com/KillYourTV_I2P/status/671317363460034560

Keep donating to them. The more we support our early partners the more like that new partners will decide to accept XMR.

[GingerAle]

What are your thoughts on the price of monero when bitcoin halves?

Bitcoin will get pumped up way before the halving. Monero will continue loosing BTC value, as usual.
Will be crucial to get out of the halving pump right bevore it plummets. Do not personally see any added value in devalueing of ASIC investment's revenue. This will merely move a lot of formerly expensive mining equipent to the waste dump.
Where is the "created value" from devalueing formerly expensive hardware investments? Can only spot investments getting wasted in a single step (compare with continually adjusted block rewards)
(obviously fishing for an opposing argument stating against this thesis, 5am in the mourning local time, using slightly damaged english. There is a bagel and some coffee awaiting me soon.)

I think the bitcoin post halving thing depends on a lot of things. 1) how efficient they've got their chips by then 2) the deal with the blocksize debate 3) whether idiots trying to create permissioned blockchains finally realize why thats not a solution 4) whether an alternative cryptocurrency has started to gobble significant market share and 5) whether the bitcoin infrastructure starts colluding.

The instantaneous halving is genius social engineering, IMO. Like the emission phase itself that fosters early adoption and bootstraps the economy, the instantaneous halvings create a point in time before which you *must* get in. The media will go nuts. There will be massive demand on bitcoin leading up to the halving.

At this point is a choose-your-own adventure moment.

If the 1 MB is still in effect and there aren't enough workarounds in place, the network will choke and newcomers will question their investment. Determined newcomers will look around and hopefully find monero (probably 10% maybe). Some percent will bail. Some percent won't care.

If 1 MB is not in effect, the can will be kicked down the road and the network won't choke.

If 1 MB is still in effect & the exchanges have made agreements with large mining operations to prioritize their transactions (akin to that chinese company), then the newcomers won't notice a thing.

In either one of those cases, the halving will occur. The price will drop a little bit. Over weeks the difficulty will drop as older hardware is taken offline. When the difficulty drops enough, the big mining firms will fire up their unnannounced, non-released 2 nm asics, driving more small miners off the network.

So, the halving will facilitate centralization really.

Really, after the halving, the price will depend on how much fiat the big players have available to burn on electricity as they wait for prices to increase. If they have to sell their bitcoin to cover electricity then they are done, as well as the price of bitcoin. However, if the big mining firms have arranged with other big players in the network for some type of service contract (see exchange <-> mining described above), then they can probably hold out for a while and not sell as *much* of their BTC to cover the electricity, which will keep the supply of available bitcoin limited.

And of course why would some big players arrange service contracts with exchanges / wallet providers? Because the exchanges / wallet providers will realize they can get some profit by finding ways to lend bitcoin. And how do you lend bitcoin? By taking control of the keys away from the owners of bitcoin. And why would people give up their keys? So they can enjoy the premium of timely transactions.

The question is how can we prevent this from happening to Monero.

[dnaleor]

For constant emission: I doubt it'll ever work. If there are no (real or perceived) benefits for early adopters, there probably won't ever be enough early adopters to get it off the ground, especially when competing with others that do provide benefits.

a constant emission scheme would temper speculative investment a lot in the first years, which should result in building the tech, building people who are interested in the tech, building a decentralized mining network because development of ASICs wouldn't be worth it (yet).

on the other hand, this would probably result in lower security as well, in the first years.

maybe Monero has indeed the best of both worlds. Time will tell.

I've never quite understood the mining emission of monero to its full extent. So if there are dynamic blocks that keep readjusting to the needs at that specific time (or atleast that's my understanding) then, does that mean there are limits that monero sets? Is there a pretty laid out set of information about moneros emission curve in general out there that I could read more on the matter?

chart here: http://weuse.cash/transparent-emission/

(website isn't finished yet)

[Hueristic]

Nice volume and price up from what now looks like a definitive bottom test in spite of BTC rise...

Much more positive.

Not sure if it is the bottom. The price is around $0.4 for about a year now. It is one of the stablest coin in the world.

Is this how you feel better about your investment crashing? Justifying it by saying it's been stable in USD?
XMR has not been stable. It's been crashing hard. Except for a brief period in the pre-exchange era the price is at all time lows. I'm just sitting here hoping it won't break 0.001 support.

If XMR is not going to outperform BTC why not just own BTC instead? If it's USD you want it makes more sense to hold BTC as long as the ratio falls. I'm not going to be happy with XMR at $1, $10 or even $100 if the XMR/BTC ratio crashes. I never watch the USD price, is seems completely irrelevant.

A falling XMR/BTC ratio indicates failure to compete in the cryptocurrency space.

Lol, your statement is patently false. Everything (all commodities) including BTC are tied to USD. You may have fooled yourself into believing otherwise but that's all your doing is deluding yourself.

Okay, even if so, the BTC "commodity" increasing while the XMR "commodity" is falling or not rising (both relative to USD) indicates a failure of XMR to compete with BTC. I don't see the counterargument here.

A failure to hold equilibrium during  bubble in a manipulated market is not indicative to a project failure. If there is a significant drop ratio beyond the average of other main alts then I would be concerned.

I'm thinking the price is being held down intentionally until the Gui is released when those that are in control have accumulated their limit.

The only other reason I can think of is that big holders know something the general public doesn't like a fatal flaw and are divesting as slowly as they can.

[gaba]

I'm thinking the price is being held down intentionally until the Gui is released when those that are in control have accumulated their limit.

The only other reason I can think of is that big holders know something the general public doesn't like a fatal flaw and are divesting as slowly as they can.

That was my thinking. A year after nothing has changed.

[stealth923]

I'm thinking the price is being held down intentionally until the Gui is released when those that are in control have accumulated their limit.

The only other reason I can think of is that big holders know something the general public doesn't like a fatal flaw and are divesting as slowly as they can.

That was my thinking. A year after nothing has changed.

for sure, whales are accumulating and keeping the price down.....where have I heard that before...hmmmm

[Muhtaixa]

I'm thinking the price is being held down intentionally until the Gui is released when those that are in control have accumulated their limit.

The only other reason I can think of is that big holders know something the general public doesn't like a fatal flaw and are divesting as slowly as they can.

That was my thinking. A year after nothing has changed.

for sure, whales are accumulating and keeping the price down.....where have I heard that before...hmmmm

The price is not down, it is just not going up. The price has been within $0.6 for about 6 months. I think it is quite stable.

[DaveyJones]

I'm thinking the price is being held down intentionally until the Gui is released when those that are in control have accumulated their limit.

The only other reason I can think of is that big holders know something the general public doesn't like a fatal flaw and are divesting as slowly as they can.

That was my thinking. A year after nothing has changed.

Nothing has changed? Did you even try to compile yourself or use the beta 0.9 binaries... the difference is a lot!

[kunac]

Unfortunately I still holding some XMR. From the user perspective nothing has changed. One year is very long time in crypto world. Same wallet, same price.  BTC will become anonymous before XMR gets decent wallet. There was a chance, maybe still is but all I can say now is; too little, too late.

[dEBRUYNE]

Nice volume and price up from what now looks like a definitive bottom test in spite of BTC rise...

Much more positive.

Not sure if it is the bottom. The price is around $0.4 for about a year now. It is one of the stablest coin in the world.

Is this how you feel better about your investment crashing? Justifying it by saying it's been stable in USD?
XMR has not been stable. It's been crashing hard. Except for a brief period in the pre-exchange era the price is at all time lows. I'm just sitting here hoping it won't break 0.001 support.

If XMR is not going to outperform BTC why not just own BTC instead? If it's USD you want it makes more sense to hold BTC as long as the ratio falls. I'm not going to be happy with XMR at $1, $10 or even $100 if the XMR/BTC ratio crashes. I never watch the USD price, is seems completely irrelevant.

A falling XMR/BTC ratio indicates failure to compete in the cryptocurrency space.

Lol, your statement is patently false. Everything (all commodities) including BTC are tied to USD. You may have fooled yourself into believing otherwise but that's all your doing is deluding yourself.

Okay, even if so, the BTC "commodity" increasing while the XMR "commodity" is falling or not rising (both relative to USD) indicates a failure of XMR to compete with BTC. I don't see the counterargument here.

A failure to hold equilibrium during  bubble in a manipulated market is not indicative to a project failure. If there is a significant drop ratio beyond the average of other main alts then I would be concerned.

I'm thinking the price is being held down intentionally until the Gui is released when those that are in control have accumulated their limit.

The only other reason I can think of is that big holders know something the general public doesn't like a fatal flaw and are divesting as slowly as they can.

Doesn't necessarily have to be whales keeping the price down, could also very well be just going the same way as all alts are going. In other words, following the altcoin trend. Although I agree there is some manipulation going on, I wrote more extensively about that earlier. See:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=753252.msg12813307#msg12813307

[digicoin]

The price is getting lower because buy volume is lower than sell volume  

Nothing is special about it. Lack of new user, holders just had enough and don't want to buy more, inflation is still high

[Spoetnik]

WOW this coin is popular guys.. this topic is the most viewed !
Click on the Category filter and see the top most viewed for this section.

[Rias]

Doesn't necessarily have to be whales keeping the price down, could also very well be just going the same way as all alts are going. In other words, following the altcoin trend. Although I agree there is some manipulation going on, I wrote more extensively about that earlier. See:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=753252.msg12813307#msg12813307

I believe we also shouldn't forget about the miners. As it is a business, there's a share of all mined coins going straight to sell walls to pay the bills. It is a natural downside factor. Monero's emission is not 60% yet, so the impact should still be significant.

[Quicken]

The price is getting lower because buy volume is lower than sell volume  

Nothing is special about it. Lack of new user, holders just had enough and don't want to buy more, inflation is still high

To put the bold in context, daily inflation is about 0.1% currently and monthly is 3%. Falling fast.

https://moneroeconomy.com/wiki/emission-rate

[XMRpromotions]

Doesn't necessarily have to be whales keeping the price down, could also very well be just going the same way as all alts are going. In other words, following the altcoin trend. Although I agree there is some manipulation going on, I wrote more extensively about that earlier. See:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=753252.msg12813307#msg12813307

I believe we also shouldn't forget about the miners. As it is a business, there's a share of all mined coins going straight to sell walls to pay the bills. It is a natural downside factor. Monero's emission is not 60% yet, so the impact should still be significant.

Mining definitely has an impact. After 0.9 is released one of our most important goals (more important than short term price swings) of growing our user base will become easier. More users should help absorb the mined coins (as the mining reward get smaller and smaller the supply/demand will change).

[Siexpert]

The investor sentiment wheel during 2015  :

http://i68.tinypic.com/118lpir.png

Sorry for the bad quality.
If you can't read the text, you can find the original image in better quality on this site for example:
http://www.trustablegold.com/investor-sentiment-wheel/

Please note that I don't want to suggest that this is the bottom, the price may eventually fall to 0.