[XMR] Monero Speculation

[oda.krell]

I totally and completely reject the "cut emissions because we want less dumping" suggestion though. That is not a valid or useful reason to renegotiate a social contract.

Let's wrap this up though, unless someone can tie it directly in with speculation. Any further discussion should be on the main thread.

Wrote a post on this topic, but moved it to the main thread, good point, smooth.

please see: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg8874136#msg8874136

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[h3speros]

orderbook recovered quickly after this big dump, i can only see us go lower if another big holder starts another dump with 20k+.
rebounce from somewhere around here would fit perfectly

yep, bids are recovering fast, maybe those big dumpers need to buy back in soon =D

[TrueCryptonaire]

We need to define terms:
Bagholder= a person who trust in coin's value staying/increasing in the future.
There is no reason for an investor to buy a coin - and thus become a bagholder - an investor is buying the coin because he wants the price constantly increase. Investor will dump the coin if it increases too fast (bubblish).

Thus the coin price should be in steady but slow bull market and the market makers should make sure even a large dumpster is not able to change much the price (like yesterday).

Please, let's not make another bitcoin but better than bitcoin.
I understand that bitcoin has made you a lot of money, but there are also many things that could be done better in bitcoinworld. One of them is the huge volatility. It means, the entrepreneurs and other risk takers (gamblers) will adopt bitcoin but not big money.
Tell me one billionaire who owns bitcoin - for them it is too volatile. If you are a billionaire and want a money, you cannot take anything so unstable that you are unable to predict the price tomorrow.

Therefore, we have two ways to solve the issue of volatility: 1) more traders making the markets for buyers and sellers 2) slower emission which frees some cash for receiving coins these dumpsters.

Please, when developing the economy, let's adopt the good things from bitcoin and fix the shortcomings of it. Then bitcoin could be replaced by monero and monero can achieve the trust of big money.

Bitcoin community is not growing at least in a significiant level anymore. There are reasons why some people do not adopt bitcoin and it is important to listen to them and make those people to use monero.

[h3speros]

im proud how well price reacted to those big dumps, monero gets stronger this way because if one entity dumps 20-30k and there's a lot small bids to take the hit, then centralization lowers, meaning that market changes to more mature direction, market becomes more predictable this way also, because normal market psychology starts to mean more

EDIT. im proud now, but that can change ofc if we go lower

[TrueCryptonaire]

10 % decline in a short term is too much when you consider it should be a store of value.
Monero needs more traders to absorb the dumps, but on the other hand, feed the buyers in pumps.

[GreekBitcoin]

10 % decline in a short term is too much when you consider it should be a store of value.
Monero needs more traders to absorb the dumps, but on the other hand, feed the buyers in pumps.

The dumps were absorbed good enough in my opinion. The problem is that right now we have someone (credible enough for me) who is telling that there is some kind of  major problem with the blockchain. But he hasnt give enough explanations. So there is great uncertainty right now and it will stay for a while unless we know more about that or we conclude it was bullshit...

[h3speros]

10 % decline in a short term is too much when you consider it should be a store of value.
Monero needs more traders to absorb the dumps, but on the other hand, feed the buyers in pumps.

The dumps were absorbed good enough in my opinion. The problem is that right now we have someone (credible enough for me) who is telling that there is some kind of  major problem with the blockchain. But he hasnt give enough explanations. So there is great uncertainty right now and it will stay for a while unless we know more about that or we conclude it was bullshit...

if he didnt provide facts then it's probably bs, that's the most likely scenario at least, ofc there's possibility that he was so kind that he didnt exploited it himself and didnt wanted to tell what it is so that no one else can exploit it but hey camoon, who believes that?

[rpietila]

10 % decline in a short term is too much when you consider it should be a store of value.
Monero needs more traders to absorb the dumps, but on the other hand, feed the buyers in pumps.

The dumps were absorbed good enough in my opinion. The problem is that right now we have someone (credible enough for me) who is telling that there is some kind of  major problem with the blockchain. But he hasnt give enough explanations. So there is great uncertainty right now and it will stay for a while unless we know more about that or we conclude it was bullshit...

I see it as follows: the decline was 10% and half of it could be attributed to the usual beta-leverage of alts diving if BTCUSD takes a hit (which it did the same day). So the effect of this rumor on price was 5%.

Now the market is stabilized and it is still 5%+5% lower. So the market is attributing only 5% chance to the scenario that it is true. If you believe it is FUD, you can get a 5% discount. Otherwise you should sell.

Of course only those who have XMR can sell. Others need to buy my PUT options to take advantage of this. They were priced very attractively before this event, so if there was any profit motive in this, it's likely someone would have bought them, at least via sockpuppets. (Here it does not matter if it is true or FUD, the price dip was a fact that already happened.) This is one of the strongest circumstatial evidence imo that the whole debacle was more of an accident than anything else.

[vuduchyld]

Now the market is stabilized and it is still 5%+5% lower. So the market is attributing only 5% chance to the scenario that it is true. If you believe it is FUD, you can get a 5% discount. Otherwise you should sell.

That's a reasonable analysis.  I took the discount and added to my position.

[OrientA]

10 % decline in a short term is too much when you consider it should be a store of value.
Monero needs more traders to absorb the dumps, but on the other hand, feed the buyers in pumps.

10% rise or drop is normal for altcoins.

[joebob999]

10 % decline in a short term is too much when you consider it should be a store of value.
Monero needs more traders to absorb the dumps, but on the other hand, feed the buyers in pumps.

10% rise or drop is normal for altcoins.

It's obvious you haven't been involved in many alts if this price drop is a big deal.

[majeis]

10 % decline in a short term is too much when you consider it should be a store of value.
Monero needs more traders to absorb the dumps, but on the other hand, feed the buyers in pumps.

10% rise or drop is normal for altcoins.

If you want to talk about altcoins, 99% drops and 2000% rises are perfectly normal as well.

[Eastwind]

10 % decline in a short term is too much when you consider it should be a store of value.
Monero needs more traders to absorb the dumps, but on the other hand, feed the buyers in pumps.

10% rise or drop is normal for altcoins.

If you want to talk about altcoins, 99% drops and 2000% rises are perfectly normal as well.

So there is no need to worry.

[TrueCryptonaire]

10 % decline in a short term is too much when you consider it should be a store of value.
Monero needs more traders to absorb the dumps, but on the other hand, feed the buyers in pumps.

10% rise or drop is normal for altcoins.

It's obvious you haven't been involved in many alts if this price drop is a big deal.

For me even bitcoin-drops are a big deal and for the most people who cannot take bitcoin this volatility is something that kills their interest on bitcoin.
The arguments that I hear against bitcoins are usually as follows:
-The price is already too high, I wish I would get in earlier, now it is too late for me.
- The CEO of Bitcoin is in jail and bitcoin is in bankcrupt (I know, this is FUD but peole in Finland associate bitcoin to Gox due to the FUD that was presented in our media - the reporters made harm for bitcoin adoption. I have heard this argument from several non-bitcoiners)
- Too much volatility for a currency

Those are the major setbacks in bitcoin which I hear from ordinary people from grass root level. Bitcoin community consists mainly of gamblers.
If you want to attract truly big money, it cannot be a gamblers coin which value you cannot predict.

I think these issues should be fixed in Monero. Therefore we need more successful and good professional traders to make markets.
Monero is still down like 10-15 % from yesterday's price, and when the coin is mature this type of things cannot happen.

I acknowledge that crabcoins have huge volatility but if we want to build something high quality, it should not have sudden unpredictable drops. I understand that now it is very infant stage and this volatility is more acceptable, but when you want the adoption of conservative money from elderly people it cannot have such volatility - the elderly ones cannot take it.

I also read from Polo trollbox somebody stating that it will take a long time for Monero to be at the same level than btc.
I have to disagree with him. How long it will take is all up to our community how long we want to postpone the development.
Monero has the advantage of second comer and I see it very clearly when I am talking with people about Monero vs. I am talking about bitcoin.

If we can fix all the shortcomings of bitcoin, I do not see any reason why Monero shouldn't replace bitcoin at some time frame.


Ideally, coin value should rise steadily. Not too fast, but not drop neither. Perhaps long term average growth should be around 2-5 % pa. Earlier stage higher as the adoption rate is lower but as the adoption gets more wider, the rate should drop around the average rise in real economy.

[NewLiberty]

Tell me one billionaire who owns bitcoin - for them it is too volatile. If you are a billionaire and want a money, you cannot take anything so unstable that you are unable to predict the price tomorrow.

Richard Branson.

There are others but you wanted one.

Michael Dell.
OK Couldn't resist adding him, just because he is a good bit richer, and later to the bitcoin owners club who have had their companies start accepting the stuff.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Tell me one billionaire who owns bitcoin - for them it is too volatile. If you are a billionaire and want a money, you cannot take anything so unstable that you are unable to predict the price tomorrow.

Richard Branson.

There are others but you wanted one.

How many bitcoins the billionaires own on average? Which part of their entire wealth is in bitcoin?

[nioc]

Monero supporter.

May I suggest........................

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=700400.0

[NewLiberty]

Tell me one billionaire who owns bitcoin - for them it is too volatile. If you are a billionaire and want a money, you cannot take anything so unstable that you are unable to predict the price tomorrow.

Richard Branson.

There are others but you wanted one.

How many bitcoins the billionaires own on average? Which part of their entire wealth is in bitcoin?

My friend, I am happy with the knowledge that we are unlikely to learn the answer to those questions.
This is one of the merits of Bitcoin, right?

If you look at the Forbes billionaire list, there are a lot of billionaires NOT on that list because they have older money.  There are some though who have famously supported it.  If you took some time, you could probably spot a few more.

Considering that the entire value of all bitcoin is less than $6 Billion USD, there are quite possibly folks on this list that have more bitcoin than they do, but I imagine they have a fair bit more than most folks reading this.

Your point is well taken, that billionaires tend to own companies, and countries, more than currencies.  They are wealthy because they own the productive output of other people.

[rpietila]

I don't want to be harsh, but..

- Too much volatility for a currency

A currency has zero volatility because things are priced on it. When Finland had FIM as currency, its value often changed 10% vs. other currencies yet prices stayed the same. Now with EUR, the annual change vs. USD can easily be over 10%. Nobody cares about those and smugly thinks that his currency is stable. It's only a matter of viewpoint.

Bitcoin community consists mainly of gamblers.

False.

If you want to attract truly big money, it cannot be a gamblers coin which value you cannot predict.

Truly big money makes their moves on political grounds. Bitcoin is probably unacceptable to most.

I think these issues should be fixed in Monero. Therefore we need more successful and good professional traders to make markets.

I think Monero has nearly enough market making. I needed to probe the level of panic by selling "dump" a few coins at 360->350 some time ago. The gap was quickly closed and I now have no chance to buy them back except at a hefty loss. This is an example of marketmaking in action.

Monero is still down like 10-15 % from yesterday's price, and when the coin is mature this type of things cannot happen.

The issue presented was legitimate, so the market is now pricing the risk in which probability it's also true 

when you want the adoption of conservative money from elderly people it cannot have such volatility - the elderly ones cannot take it.

Only a problem as long as prices are presented in something else, and not even then. See several countries with pricing in hard currency yet payment in the country's "shitcoin" (example: Poland).

I also read from Polo trollbox somebody stating that it will take a long time for Monero to be at the same level than btc.
I have to disagree with him. How long it will take is all up to our community how long we want to postpone the development.
Monero has the advantage of second comer and I see it very clearly when I am talking with people about Monero vs. I am talking about bitcoin.

Monero vs. Bitcoin have liquid markets. If/When people at large start to feel fear for their BTC and decide that Monero is the answer, they can all go through this funnel. I estimated that once the stampede starts, in 6 weeks the coins change places marketcapwise, in a quite epic episode of forward escape.

Ideally, coin value should rise steadily. Not too fast, but not drop neither. Perhaps long term average growth should be around 2-5 % pa. Earlier stage higher as the adoption rate is lower but as the adoption gets more wider, the rate should drop around the average rise in real economy.

The steadily rising value is only possible for some fairly low growth rates. If the growth factor is 100% or more per annum (or even less but let's keep this as an example), the growth becomes turbulent, with successive surges and implosions, as can be seen from BTC. You cannot do anything about it.

[robinwilliams]

Monero vs. Bitcoin have liquid markets. If/When people at large start to feel fear for their BTC and decide that Monero is the answer, they can all go through this funnel. I estimated that once the stampede starts, in 6 weeks the coins change places marketcapwise, in a quite epic episode of forward escape.

yeah uh.  don't they just go back to fiat when scared?  Why go to something more volatile and likely to die than bitcoin when you are scared of bitcoin?

Bitcion goes down - XMR goes down more