Here's my own personal bucket list for confirming a Bitcoin low that I'll keep updated. Currently at 40% complete, so still some way to go but getting closer: 1. Pi Cycle bottom signalled: 11/07 @ $20.8K ✅ 2. NUPL leaving capitulation levels: 18/07 @ $22.4K ✅ 3. Weekly RSI leaving oversold conditions: ❔❔❔ 4. Price closing back above 200 WMA: ❔❔❔ 5. Hash Ribbons indicator buy signal: ❔❔❔ Price range: $20.8K - ❔❔❔ Time range: 11/07/21 until ❔❔❔ This is simply my own criteria for attempting to confirm a bear market low, but not an end to the bear market nor new bull market I should add. Currently waiting on Weekly RSI to close a week outside of oversold conditions (this week hopefully), as well as close back above the 200 WMA (next week maybe). Hash Ribbons indicator will likely take longer to confirm buy signal as hash rate continues to decline. What's your criteria for confirming a bear market bottom for Bitcoin, if any? Very nice! merited elsewhere. I wonder if all criteria are independent or crossing a few tremendously increase the probability of others to trigger. Personally, i already thought that this is a real thing, but it is VERY nice to see that the objective criteria confirms. However, I am of the opinion (not supported by facts) that this cycle, similarly to the prior one, would have "fake" rallies a la 2019. As such, I see 47-48K as a limit of such "premature" bitcoin rally (and 3.4K for the competitor). Could be a very fast bump, maybe to September, if macro cooperates. |
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Will likely die of skin cancer and/or heart disease. Listen, the dude made it to 80 while still wanting (and probably being capable) to have a girlfriend, plus he is a millionaire (don't know what ultra means...I guess he has slightly less than a billion). He made it by almost all counts. i don't know about his soul, hence the qualification. |
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I suppose selling Bitcoin by Tesla is not economical but political decision. If all US based companies sell bitcoin it dumps the market extremely.
naah, it's just Elon being himself. |
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He never was a hodler...bought with the hype in 2021, sold when distressed in 2022...overall almost broke even (lost 74 mil, which is less than 5% of the initial investment).
Not a player anymore (in bitcoin), so let's just forget about him once and for all.
EDIT bank of England made an "infamous" sell of gold around 2000 for $250-280. Elon's sell would probably just as "timely".
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This seems worrisome... makes this smell like a bull trap. I do not want to believe that.  Exactly that was weird experience 😂 i was so excited that BTC is above 200 MA after weeks and then suddenly i remembered that a Post of 15.5k BTC Transfer was Posted then I got a Telegram Notification of the same post in Local community Group and then i saw the tweet,,, No words to say now, i wish it will be wrong or, maybe the guy/gal just needed 300mil pronto (and book some losses since he was buying a bit from the peak to now). Essentially, he/she sold down to March-April levels (in btc count). |
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It is still possible that the whole bear was fake and aimed at ruining CeFi lenders and funds (3AC, Celsius, Voyager) plus idiotic Terra.
Some Mr/Ms smartie pants (of Goldman, etc ilk...SBF comes to mind) could have figured out that those funds/lenders were way out of balance and pulled the rug.
Wallet data (0.1-1BTC and >1BTC) showed NO typical bear decrease.
Maybe that's why we never had a blowoff top and did not decline 84% (only -74% at max down).
BTW, some stonks are surging too..i have some biotechs that bottomed in May-June and are now almost 100% up. A super-bounce into more tightening? A bit strange.
IMHO, 75bp and they are probably done until the EOY.
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The largest bank in the Eurozone to launch Bitcoin, Crypto custody platform.French bank BNP Paribas, the leading private bank in the Eurozone, will become a custodial service provider for bitcoin and other digital assets, according to a report from CoinDesk
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Still, Metaco has previously announced partnerships with the likes of Citigroup, BBVA, Zodia Custody, DBS and Union Bank Philippines. More recently, French bank Societe Generale also partnered with Metaco. Previously, CEO of Metaco Adrien Treccani discussed the rise of banks entering the custody ecosystem of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in an interview.
“The series of banks that were already working on certain topics suddenly transformed from innovation pilots to concrete go-to market strategies,” Treccani said in an interview. “You will start seeing a series of announcements involving very big custodians. It’s almost FOMO [a fear of missing out] as these large banking players know that their future somehow depends on this capability.”. I am curious as to what their terms would be...if they are similar to Celsius in that it is not your bitcoin but their liability, then such arrangement would be mostly useless. If it is like a digital safety box, then it could be OK IF there is a reasonable fixed fee, not a percentage of custodial bitcoin fee. |
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bitcoin is up much..while stonks were down...I like this.
non-US govs started to complain about the $ being too strong. IBM lost $3.5bil in revenue due to the strong dollar, apparently.
On cue, DXY went down a bit.
One "interesting" idea is that the FED is about to break 'something' and would be forced to reverse tightening by no later than EOY, which is quite possible.
If so, some 'smart money" might have started allocating to btc already.
We shall see.
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USDT=USDC
tether is back...fully
no opinion on intrinsic value
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I have a sell order at 100K$. For something like 5% of my stash. The difficulty will be to keep it when we'll be approaching that level, so I'm already preparing myself. When the price goes down under 100K I don't want to have regrets.
Make it 98-99K, lol...but, if we are in a normal circumstances, perhaps at least 10X from the actual bottom would be in play. However, I decided to probably sell a chunk in 2025 regardless of the price; well, I would not do it if the price would be something silly (on the lower side). EDIT Since we seem to replay the seventies (with major similarity being boomers vs millennials and the effect of those large cohorts on inflation), it stands to reason that stonks and bond markets might bottom by 2024 (with or without a flat all the way to 2030). Going long equities either on a spike down around 2024 and/or by the end of the decade should be one of those generational decisions: buy and forget about it for 20 years. |
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@JJG FYI...from https://brians.wsu.edu/2016/05/19/whimp/If you use the much less common “whimp” instead people may regard you as a little wimpy. That said, now I am a wimp for not selling at $60 or 50K? Hilarious. Here is a bet (nonfunded): within 2-3 years anyone who sold at 50-60K would be considered a wimp, unless, of course, they sold at 60K, then bought back at 17.5-20K, but it is REALLY difficult to do if you already did something with that profit plus paid taxes on it; not impossible, but difficult. Every time I sell, I consider that bitcoin gone..but I haven't sell for a while. |
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That's me in 2013, 2017 and 2021.
I had a goal set, sell at 100k. That worked out well, not.
I told myself - I'm not greedy so I'll sell at 80k. That worked out just at well. we (since I include myself) just got out-wimped  |
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Chamath tries to explain things. Sounds a bit douche-baggy, but maybe it's just my view. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9u5q7nDPbJYReminder: he is the dude who pushed the SPAC s-t onfolks. Yet, some of his points are, perhaps, valid, as far as the mechanics is concerned. Still, I don't get why he puts it on bitcoin when most (or at least a large part) of those dealings were in eth. People did not read the contracts they were signing (while going ga-ga for "yield"). IMHO, insolvencies here are just the start. Wait until all those highly leveraged financial companies start to "pop" when IR approach 5%. |
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Re Celsius...The only remaining question is whether it is an "honest" bankruptcy or not.
I hope for the former, but we would out that they hypotheticated the same bitcoin to multiple parties, then it would be something more serious.
For now, I would just assume that all of their equity, but not all deposits got wiped out by losses of 3AC, etc.
They 'supposed" to have 12 bil in deposits. the hope would be that some recovery would be possible, but it is a major bad event, no doubt about it.
For once, I am glad that now everyone would be simply hodling and/or trading and not trying to "generate yield". The side effect would be that exchange liquidity would probably drop quite a bit.
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<snip>@chowcollection They don’t want you to stay humble and stack sats. They want you to diversify into crypto, they want you to trade with 5x leverage, they want you to lend your #Bitcoin for 6% yield. You tell them, Fuck off! This is *my* claim to the 21M supply! I’m HODLing it forever, you fucks! https://twitter.com/chowcollection/status/1547253769066450945?s=21I wouldn't mind that all loan-liquidated bitcoins would be proportionally distributed between hodlers, but, apart from that, bitcoin is already great. Another proposal (also probably a bit wild): allow lending via smart contracts ONLY...no situation where you effectively give up control of your keys. Not sure how to do this one though, as some people want to rent out their last shirt, it seems. |
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today's outrage...
...what the F is that 'heated seat subscription" from BMW?
pinching pennies on a supposedly premium car?
Bitcoin variant: you would have deposited bitcoin in a bank, but need a "subscription" to "unlock" it.
jeez...some companies just run out of ideas and are peddling this gimmick.
I will NOT purchase any hardware with "subscription"...in principle.
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Make Your Comment on itMiners providing liquidity to exchanges? Whales manipulation, trying to start panic? it's like 1/150 (or less) of today's volume. Not nothing, of course, but also not something big. |
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In a couple of years of JWST observation..."You get a galaxy and you get a galaxy and you..." (Oprah style).
There are only about 8 bil of us, but at least 200 bil galaxies.
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Tuur Demeester says what? https://twitter.com/TuurDemeester/status/1545571826838867969/photo/1Pretty nice...is this guy something? I wonder if he invested accordingly. EDIT: having said that he is into flippening (or not, lol)...oh, well, people can be right on something and completely wrong on something else. EDIT2: or, maybe, he was joking...whatever. Some people make it too cute. |
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