I'll have one of those 449% up months please
I would take the second best 172% too. let's go! |
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damn it Buddy, this is not Dec 2017 ... so........ who sold at the top? Oh dear... I just double posted and quoted myself. Nully is rubbing off on me. My apologies. I'll try to keep my post less than 3 pages and 10 links...  I sold a good amount in the fall over 60k. a baller move...put you into talented trader territory (together with @LFC). |
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lower bottom or not, I think of a major bounce in the next 2-8 wk, maybe even into September.
SP500 to 4300 (at least)
btc to above 28-29K (at least)
next couple of days are less clear, though.
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Sunday haiku count
on Saturday night, perhaps
am I in a dream?
#haiku
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old (used) cars would dramatically increase in price, perhaps. |
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another one, another one...bites the dust.
dropping like flies...hopefully, we are close the end than to a beginning with those entities.
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Damn bear markets are long & boring. The only positive is these are the times that anybody with a brain lays the foundations for massive future success & wealth by buying. It’s quite surreal isn’t it, the way that most of us think compared to the average pleb in life. In a raging bull market lots of us are selling, confirming a comfortable life for us & our families, putting cash aside to buy back at a big discount when the bear market comes.
So many idiots buy during the bullish times & sell during times like this. It must be part of the brain where we are wired differently, our way of thinking. What kind of a moron is selling at these prices? Seemingly quite a lot judging by the price. Some people are just ngmi.
Any way, looking forward to 2024 & 2025, all the memes & happiness in this thread. {insert Ghana’s dancing pallbearer's gif).
Keep buying brothers of the wall. I do not want to see any mindrusting here, that’s an order!
I like the spirit, but timing is an issue re "in a raging bull market lots of us are selling". It's a pure guess on when you want to sell once it goes over previous ATH, I assume. Immediately? Upon 2X from prior ATH? 3X?....not an easy answer. You sold and won (this time), but if it went to, say, 180K, the decision to sell at 60 wouldn't be so smart, right? Or maybe one shoud activate a steady small sell orders upon reaching some number and stick to it? All I am saying is that the NEXT time it could be quite different (or not). Now, when is a good time to buy? many bought at 50, 40, 30, now 20K. Was it a good buy at, say, 30K? Very well may be....in 2-4 years or so. Personally, I did not sell any bitcoin at 60 to current, perhaps foolishly, albeit I took heavy profits in something else, so the cycle was not without profits. I did take some profits in btc too early in 2017, so, maybe this affected my hesitation of selling above 60K, perhaps. Re 'morons' who are selling....a whole gamut of those: late retail, leveraged a-holes, hedge funds who "have" to sell, etc. In fact, i think that some major long term holders sold between 20K and 17.5K. Why? because bitcoin NEVER dropped below prior ATH before. When something new happened, they took notice. Besides, some whale who bought at $20 does not really care of the price difference between 20 and 60K, he still made 1000X (not 3000X, sure).The idea that goes through their head is probably this one: IF btc went below prior ATH and is scraping just below 200 week MA, what else "new" it can do? Not relevant for me because I decided to play this one as long as I can while being mentally prepared for a low probability of even zero. It would be sad, but another experience of the gestalt. no mindtrusting, sure. |
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Next month(s) are critical ?   Next 24 years are critical. not for everybody... a funny thought occurred (had a bit to drink): Warren Buffett putting half of his 96bil inheritance to buy btc, just for kicks and giggles to rile EVERYONE. I wish someone with a big fortune plays this "practical joke". I realize that WB won't do it...he is too "square". |
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I just hope that someone buys Celsius for $1+ resuming obligations so we can start a "real" recovery to @dragonvslinux target (which I concur with) of 47-49K.
Pronto, please.
No matter what some of you say, the bear markets are no fun.
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it feels weird...re the demise of the lending infrastructure.
remember the scary sci-fi movie with Nicholas Cage ("Knowing").
EE...he could not get what it means...finally, he gets it: everyone else
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The equation is: [Gold] divided by [S&P] = "Magical line".
I remember reading somewhere (Prechter? lol) that gold always comes back to be about 1:1 with the Dow. The last time it happened was in 1980. Gold and Dow both at 15K at some point? It's possible, I guess, but it would be a somewhat dysfunctional world, imho. Dow and bitcoin at the same price point? Very possible in the midterm. My expectation after a real bottom is a rally to 50week MA, currently around maybe 43K, but declining. From where? it is a big question and you provided excellent possibilities. Gold went to ~300, then back to ~500. Bitcoin "should" bounce harder. |
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What do people think contributed most to Golds 20 year bear market ?
Disinflation due to digitization, cheap China (at that time) labor force, computer "revolution" (straight deflation in the prices of computers and components). Same for TVs. check out computer prices: https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2018/06/22/cost-of-a-computer-the-year-you-were-born/36156373/I remember a colleague in the early 90ies buying pre-Jobs Mac for $3.5-4K. Not limited to macs, see the reference. Memory had CRAZY prices too. |
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How long it would continue-who knows. All TA is irrelevant now, sorry, and so is trying to decide when to buy.
What about TA with less price prediction and more statistical data based on yearly MAs? Or at least my attempt of presenting it... As of the week of June 27th 2022. Using the MA Ribbon (Simple Moving Average) on the Weekly time-frame with intervals of 52 candles, starting with 52 (1 Year). 1 Year: $42,845 2 Year: $36,488 3 Year: $27,229 4 Year: $21,896 5 Year: $19,099 6 Year: $16,104 7 Year: $13,860 8 Year: $12,168 9 Year: $10,869 10 Year: $9787  I agree that no-one really knows how long this bear market will go on for and when it will end. Worst case, it could take an entire decade or two. But when it does come to price, without Bitcoin actually dying (which I think is very unlikely based on fundamentals), even a decade-long bear market imo would likely only yield $10K to $14K prices. Even if price consolidates between $10K and $20K for many years. Of course we can't compare a decade long bull market in Bitcoin to a decade long bear market in Bitcoin, because the latter has never happened. But imo you can look elsewhere to see what happens when a decade long bull market comes to an end, based on what was previously the best inflation hedge. It generally just means decades of consolidation at worst, as opposed to some 90-99% fall in price. By comparison, looking at the Gold chart using Monthly MA Ribbon (SMA) with intervals of 12 (1 Year) starting with 12 (after it's decade long bull market and 25x increase):  In summary, I think the worst (or arguably best) case scenario is a bear market based on an extended amount of time, not an extended correction of price. this is actually GREAT TA, thanks. I also thought about gold's 2 decade bear, but I thought that we would enter a long bear from a much higher price (like 300K-1mil). A valid point about long bears being less 'vertical', too. |
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The whole world is in "oh, s-t" state.
How long it would continue-who knows. All TA is irrelevant now, sorry, and so is trying to decide when to buy.
It's laughable, but sometimes I have a thought that this bitcoin price decrease is to prevent people from "escaping" either fiat OR even physically.
It's OT, but I sold some assets (not bitcoin) a couple of days ago to at least finish the major renovation project (just an old habit of finishing things that you set up to do) without a need to sell at the bottom.
I looked at various second passports and/or residencies and there is NOTHING that represents a true escape. Some Caribbean entities look cheap, but they are just placeholders. Europe is very expensive and/or defeats the purpose of "escaping".
Oh, well, here goes nothing.
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some peeps simply don't have time for a 20 year long bear market.
besides, 260/850 or more properly 260/650 (because gold was above $650 flat top only for about 7 days) is JUST 69.5 or 60% correction (with at least two bear rallies to ~77% of the flat peak, an equivalent of about 53K in btc). Super long bear with multiple 2X rallies is preferable to 80% down in just half a year (well, we only went -70% so far, to be more precise).
institutional involvement did not pan out as a value stabilizer; this, at least, is clear.
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Almost every little 'shithead' on youtube/twitter/tradingview keeps blabbering about 10K-14K bottom.
To me it says that it won't be THAT.
My preference (and it looks like the WO on average) is that the bottom was "already", but the whole cycle is messed up so much that it is difficult to be certain.
One thing is for sure: I believe in btc as a medium of exchange much more than the 'store of value' story at this point. It could change, though.
The fact that there will only ever be 21 million makes this pretty much a forgone conclusion that over time BTC is and will be a store of value it could be, eventually, but it does not feel this way if you consider the period since late 2017. No value stored vs inflation whatsoever, objectively. A negative 20% (vs inflation) vs gold's +25% vs inflation, and I dislike gold. imho, the involvement of financial institutions 'messed' bitcoin up, albeit maybe only temporarily. If financial types could pledge bitcoin en masse (and they did), then the 'store of value' and "clean collateral" stories could be affected. TL;DR a new 'story' for bitcoin is needed (or it could be the "old" story of the medium of exchange). The 'store of value' story is in deep hibernation for now. but gold is subject to vast dilution of value with discovery of new deposits of it. https://www.mining.com/web/uganda-says-exploration-results-show-it-has-31-million-tonnes-of-gold-ore/"Muyita said an estimated 320,158 tonnes of refined gold could be extracted from the 31 million tonnes of ore." quote from link If true that is more than the 205,000 mined ever see below. https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/how-much-goldand the 2016 estimate of gold mined and in the ground was "About 244,000 metric tons of gold has been discovered to date (187,000 metric tons historically produced plus current underground reserves of 57,000 metric tons). Most of that gold has come from just three countries: China, Australia, and South Africa. The United States ranked fourth in gold production in 2016." google quote above, so the 244,000 world total mined and not mined yet total to go to over 500,000 mined and not mined yet. Which means about a 50% dilution of value for gold. How about that find and a second find in Africa and the asteroid they are looking at all come true in under 20 years. gold could move from a 244,000 grand total estimate to 1,000,000 total in the next ten years to twenty years. I consider gold to have more risk than BTC or Silver. Reason for silver is there is more of it so find a lot more is less likely. 1,600,000 tons of silver has been mined already. I am thinking finding 1,600,000 more tons of silver is less likely . than finding 320,000 tons of gold (just been found) so I fear gold's staying power. Do silver and BTC. But I am only talking about what I like to do. yes, sure, I am aware, good points. Perhaps this discovery being "priced in" resulted in almost no rise significantly despite the 5X increase in M1 since 2020. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SLbecause of what you posted, I am reluctant to buy gold, but was just saying that it did better than btc since 2017, but worse than btc since covid crash. |
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