Well it is not a banking crisis it is an intentional action where banks are intentionally being crushed.
My long time retired banker buddy has told me 10-15 more will fail and the fed will likely push as high as
6% via a jun july sept and maybe oct jump all at .25%
A lot has to do with 3.5 trillion being entrusted to long term care insurance.
They will be more bailed out if we go to 6% vs the 5% we are at.
Look into fed long term care and see that it shut off new customers. Now that they can buy higher interest fed bonds they will be able to take new customers.
So once fed long term care allows more customers to join we may see the pivot.
You won’t find this info in many spots. But it is a big factor in what is happening. Think magic shows a pretty girl or loud noise gathers you attention so the magician can do the trick.
Ie inflation allows them the excuse to raise rates while reallity is they are bailing out the long term insurance care companies.
What you suggest is akin to "Cutting off one's nose to spite one's face". It's unlikely to be the cause, imho. JP is just "playing Volcker". That said, I made moves with my bank and ret. accounts (moved from what I perceived to be a more risky place to, hopefully, a less risky one). We shall see if my intuition was correct or not. |
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Rumor has it that Al Gore not only invented the internet, he actually invented most of computer science as we know it. That's why they call computational methods "Al-Gore-ithms"  Don't forget the homage paid to Gore by Arthur C. Clarke: the spaceship computer in A Space Odyssey is not named AL 9000 by chance! It is actually named HAL (name was obtained by moving one or two letters away from IBM)... Today is the day Of sarcasm impairment Tsk tsk, Biodom #haikutouche...just couldn't see such reference to one of my favorite movies. Another irreverent reference: Slaughterhouse #5 (the first one to write the last name of the author without googling it..count on your honesty...gets 5 merits) ...enters PacWest...check out the late after-hours print. |
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Rumor has it that Al Gore not only invented the internet, he actually invented most of computer science as we know it. That's why they call computational methods "Al-Gore-ithms" Don't forget the homage paid to Gore by Arthur C. Clarke: the spaceship computer in A Space Odyssey is not named AL 9000 by chance! It is actually named HAL (name was obtained by moving one letter away from IBM)... |
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Apart from kids being your kin, how do you know now (assuming that your kids are still very young) that they are or will be worthy of such inheritance?
Actually, a serious question and I have been grappling with this one for a while.
Alternatives: extended family (if worthy), charities of your choosing, etc, etc.
They are your kids. Do you have children? The more pertinent question is whether it will actually advantage them and whether they are equipped to handle it. Exactly (and I do, more than one)...re the second part of your question..you should know what your kids can or cannot do, imho. In some cases dropping a large or small inheritance on some immature person can result in the effect that would be the opposite of what you expected. OT: That said, Tucker's mom gave him only $1. Did that help or hurt, I wonder? |
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My DCA buy, originally scheduled for monday, got delayed for tuesday, when it slipped into the little $28k dip. Nice.
Hm? Don't you gots ur lil selfie a lots of cornz by now? By the way, I will admit that in some sense, I can relate to what you are describing, especially since sometimes, I will create tokenly small orders, just for funzies, and I will get a wee bit worked up regarding whether and/or how such order(s) fill.. and whether there was a lot of good/bad luck involved in the way that BTC prices ended up moving, even though in the whole scheme of things, the order(s) hardly even affected my "stack" in any kind of significant or meaningful way. Lucky you  I still keep adding, even small amounts, and i probably won't stop. I don't have a reason to stop. In the end, most of the stack is desinted to be a heritage for my kids. Apart from kids being your kin, how do you know now (assuming that your kids are still very young) that they are or will be worthy of such inheritance? Actually, a serious question and I have been grappling with this one for a while. Alternatives: extended family (if worthy), charities of your choosing, etc, etc. |
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My mistake was in that i was thinking that Mr market would try to push banks up after FRC supposed "rescue", but it lasted for a whole 2 hours, then reversed.
My plan was to buy puts into a rally, but I am not buying those into a sharp decline and increase in premium and volatility.
Hence, still flat in the money market with about 5% returns (plus some long term time horizon stocks).
Pro tip: Don't be fucking around with that shit. Buy bitcoin and don't be whimpy about it.  #justsaying. Dude, I am not selling bitcoin for consumption (as someone else does,  ), hence no need to generate cash flow: salary is nice, but sometimes I want a little extra, hence playing with a play money on the other markets. Money market is different since I have too much exposure to "risk" already (via bitcoin, mainly). Therefore, money market acts as an "anchor" to fiat portion, counterbalancing "risk" in btc. But, to each their own and I would understand even a 100% btc position if someone would say that this is what what they think is proper. |
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Taking equity out of ones home, another thing you can't do here (and people wouldn't understand). Of course we saw in 2009 that it led to plenty of people losing their home...
You can't easily do it in Texas too because locals were burned on this before anyone else in US (in 1987) when people were mass-mailing the keys to their houses to lenders, apparently. Typically, no cash-out refinancing. I know some people in CA that did multiple cash outs and now have a gigantic mortgage. Still, there is some equity, but the cushion is much smaller that it should have been otherwise. |
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My mistake was in that i was thinking that Mr market would try to push banks up after FRC supposed "rescue", but it lasted for a whole 2 hours, then reversed.
My plan was to buy puts into a rally, but I am not buying those into a sharp decline and increase in premium and volatility.
Hence, still flat in the money market with about 5% returns (plus some long term time horizon stocks).
Nothing to report re btc (no change in position whatsoever).
BTW, I read (with a big surprise) that there are only about 1 mil wallet addresses with at least one btc.
I thought that there were at least 2-5 times more.
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hmmm...PACW is down 9%, PNC is down 6%, a whole bunch is down 2-4%. PACW is relatively tiny with deposits at 41b, but PNC has/had 436 bil as per last earnings 16 days ago, don't know right now. I dunno what to make of all? Cramer and J. Dimon say that it is OK now. The official reason for the purchase was to protect the industry and restore trust. How is the purchase of a bankrupt bank going to restore trust in the system? They are covering a dead guy with a blanket and saying it's all right, we'll take care of it, he's not dead, he's taking a nap!
my read is that he is buying stuff with a huge discount and by doing so helping his own balance sheet; no wonder that PNC, which did not get the "goods", is declining 6% today. I am not sure how it all relates to bitcoin. I listened to a long P. mcCormick/Jeff Booth podcast ( https://www.whatbitcoindid.com/podcast/why-deflation-is-the-key-to-abundance ) and they were saying that even in nations with 100% yearly inflation, most of the populace still stays in the system and only a small % choose bitcoin. Blame it on inertia, on being uninformed, etc., but it is a sad truth for now. nowadays not many people have savings and if they have some they just don't want to gamble with it. investing in whatever is like gambling for most people. I got it, but I am reconsidering even to have more than a current month expense in the bank. You get 0% there and in a money market almost 5%. I am sure that after I would post this, some money market would get off parity and money would flow backwards into the "safe" banks. In fact, I penciled this scenario for sometime in the next 6-8 mo as banks cannot tolerate losing deposits to Treasury direct and money markets for too long. |
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hmmm...PACW is down 9%, PNC is down 6%, a whole bunch is down 2-4%. PACW is relatively tiny with deposits at 41b, but PNC has/had 436 bil as per last earnings 16 days ago, don't know right now. I dunno what to make of all? Cramer and J. Dimon say that it is OK now. The official reason for the purchase was to protect the industry and restore trust. How is the purchase of a bankrupt bank going to restore trust in the system? They are covering a dead guy with a blanket and saying it's all right, we'll take care of it, he's not dead, he's taking a nap!
my read is that he is buying stuff with a huge discount and by doing so helping his own balance sheet; no wonder that PNC, which did not get the "goods", is declining 6% today. I am not sure how it all relates to bitcoin. I listened to a long P. mcCormick/Jeff Booth podcast ( https://www.whatbitcoindid.com/podcast/why-deflation-is-the-key-to-abundance ) and they were saying that even in nations with 100% yearly inflation, most of the populace still stays in the system and only a small % choose bitcoin. Blame it on inertia, on being uninformed, etc., but it is a sad truth for now. |
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here are even crazier and real numbers: in the last 18 thou years sea level rose 120 meters (!)....and on the long term chart the sea level keeps oscillating, see small pic on the same page: https://www.e-education.psu.edu/earth107/node/1506The sea level was so low 18 thou years ago that first tribes got to the NA through what is now called Bering Strait. Of course, meters of rise do not happen during one person's lifespan. |
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Thread full of shitbirds
A full boycott until June
Thread is getting weird
"No fate, but what we make for ourselves" T2 |
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Interesting stats on how much you need to make to be middle class in US (by states and cities): https://finance.yahoo.com/news/takes-middle-class-americas-largest-110047320.htmlHonestly, i think some of the numbers are bogus. Houston's numbers of 37K-110K are correct, though, but 37K is more like a "ramen" middle class. If they asked me, i would say, maybe 50K is the lower bound now around here. That said, some retail jobs pay awfully low, so an average person probably has at least two jobs. |
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Frog jumps and frog falls
Head smacking on the ceiling
Frog with diamond head
#haiku
puffing chest... ...Are you talking to me...are you talking to me? |
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Looks like the market didn't do much after the swings last week and is back to a consolidation phase just under $30K. The fact this is happening just below $30K instead of above it makes me think this rally may be starting to lose a little steam. I'm sure the movement of mtgox coins spooked some folks into selling but the buyers were there to scoop up the BTC and bring the price back up. I think we've got some choppy trading in the near future but once the mtgox coins and US gov coins are bought up, it will be off to the races. That should supercharge the halfining and set us up for a nice run into the next bubble as spot ETFs begin getting approved.
Yes, i think so too, maybe 35K-40K by the halving, but it doesn't mean that we cannot go to 48-50K sometime this summer. On the other hand, there is some eerie similarity between 2008 and now. Back then, Bear went bust in March, stocks then rallied into May (including Lehman), then started to slowly decline (first into mid July) and then more precipitously from the end of August and into October, then lower low in November. Right now, we had the SVB 'event' in March, now stocks are rallying and I don't think anybody would care much about FRC since they were also 'crippled' back in March, effectively, so market probably considers all of those 3-4 banks a part of one event. However, markets may feel less cocky at the end of Q3 if recession would be happening. I don't know what would happen this Fall, and which institution could be Lehmanesque, we shall see. TL;DR imho, $40-50K bitcoin peak during summer, decline to $30K (not lower, hopefully), then back to $40K by the halving. |
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the guy on the left could take out the fella on the right in 10 sec or less, sowwy. |
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Ah, just saw that I am now legendary.
Thanks all for the merits.
Congrats...well deserved! |
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I was "playing" with bitcoin numbers and have some thoughts on the matter.
Tops ($): 31, 1160, 19780, 68900
To me, it looks like the ATH number 'should have been' $154000 instead of $68900 in the prior peak.
Therefore, it suggests that it was not a "natural" progression, but interference from multiple sources (we all know that Chinese interfered first by shutting down mining and then the rally simply run out of steam due to time constrains plus the beginning of a tightening cycle). In the case of "natural progression" the multiplier might have been 7.8X in a 37X, 17X, 7.8X series-those are multiples from the prior post-halving ATH (and I don't count first peak in 2013). Therefore, the next (2024-2025) peak theoretically should be a 3.58X of the prior peak (which should have been 154K), suggesting a higher bound value of 551K and a lower bound of 246.9K (a product of 68.9X3.58). This suggests that if left alone, bitcoin could produce a super-cycle to "compensate" for the prior cycle underachievement.
However, the trough series are more menacing:
Bottoms: 2, 175, 3200, 15700 (tentatively)
Therefore, the multiple in these series are 87.5X, 18.3X and 4.9X, suggesting that the next trough would be maybe at 1.6X of 15700 or 24600.
If next trough to peak is 0.3 (7 percentage points better than 77% in the current cycle), this would suggest ATH of "only" 82K, which would be a disappointment to many, including myself.
TL;DR The cycle got messed with last time and it is not clear if there would be a "rebound' to the "natural" progression in the form of a 'super-cycle" or not. If yes, then 246-551K is achievable and if not, we might peak at much more pedestrian 82K.
so 82-246-551 are your three separate possible tops for 2025. essentially. |
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I was "playing" with bitcoin numbers and have some thoughts on the matter.
Tops ($): 31, 1160, 19780, 68900
To me, it looks like the ATH number 'should have been' $154000 instead of $68900 in the prior peak.
Therefore, it suggests that it was not a "natural" progression, but interference from multiple sources (we all know that Chinese interfered first by shutting down mining and then the rally simply run out of steam due to time constrains plus the beginning of a tightening cycle). In the case of "natural progression" the multiplier might have been 7.8X in a 37X, 17X, 7.8X series-those are multiples from the prior post-halving ATH (and I don't count first peak in 2013). Therefore, the next (2024-2025) peak theoretically should be a 3.58X of the prior peak (which should have been 154K), suggesting a higher bound value of 551K and a lower bound of 246.9K (a product of 68.9X3.58). This suggests that if left alone, bitcoin could produce a super-cycle to "compensate" for the prior cycle underachievement.
However, the trough series are more menacing:
Bottoms: 2, 175, 3200, 15700 (tentatively)
Therefore, the multiple in these series are 87.5X, 18.3X and 4.9X, suggesting that the next trough would be maybe at 1.6X of 15700 or 24600.
If next trough to peak is 0.3 (7 percentage points better than 77% in the current cycle), this would suggest ATH of "only" 82K, which would be a disappointment to many, including myself.
TL;DR The cycle got messed with last time and it is not clear if there would be a "rebound' to the "natural" progression in the form of a 'super-cycle" or not. If yes, then 246-551K is achievable and if not, we might peak at much more pedestrian 82K.
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