Some VCs are thinking that 'crypto' is finished in US. They obviously don't separate bitcoin from others, so there is that.
with "they" you mean the US regulators with, right? how is it obvious to you that they don't distinguish? Two outcomes imo: 1) The US don't distinguish and drive everything out: Bitcoin will survive and many shitcoins will probably die 2) They drive only unregistered securities out: Money from these will flow into the rest, primarily Bitcoin (which fails the Howey-test afaik) "They" obviously refers to the prior phrase VCs, who were discussing the current state of affairs. Here is a more interesting non-linear "take" from A. Hayes: https://cryptohayes.medium.com/exit-liquidity-3052309e6bfaTL;DR Don't be an "exit liquidity" if you can. |
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"If God had meant us to fly he'd have given us wings." It is cruel to demand from the euro what is impossible for its kind.  it would be funny if it was accurate... ...alas euro is up 10% vs $ since October and VGK (European stocks ETF) is up about 36% (at at 66% per year run rate!) vs more pedestrian VTI (US stocks) being up 14.5% during the same time period. You've got to diversify. |
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mmh you didn't get it...?
It wasn't a call for anybody other than for you to recognize that you sound like a shitcoiner... ..idk maybe you are one..
hey, buddy, being a shitcoiner is better than to be a person that constantly gets into quarrels about nothing. I came to a realization that it's beneath me to discuss this matter any further. |
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Looking at the chart it seems like we appear to be at the bottom of the recent trading range. That gives me the feeling that we're about done dropping for now. Could we fall further still? Sure. Anything is possible. However, I'd feel OK buying here, especially as part of a dollar cost averaging plan and I think we'll soon be making another run for $30K. Bitcoin seems to be a little spooked by the calls for a coming recession growing louder. I don't see any specific reason why we would drop further from here though. Just traders doing what traders do.
I am mostly interested in how much RE would drop...want another place. In ideal case, bitcoin would be high (like a kite) and housing low (as in nobody has got any money left), but it is unlikely to happen. |
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So we have two different opinions here ...buddy... I hope you can live with that
Can you live with that yourself? Consider shitcoins a different opinion, perhaps. Imagine a stock market with one stock-is that your "vision"? If there is ONLY bitcoin and nothing else, the next thing is governments crushing bitcoin. In essence, shitcoins "shitcoinery" puts bitcoin in a positive spotlight as it clearly did during FTX and Luna fiascos. P.S your appeals to 'mommy' JJG to batslap someone on your behalf are a little weird, perhaps? "Where is your mommy"? |
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OT: Anybody watched "The last of us"? Not to draw any similarities, but something weird is happening lately: https://abcnews.go.com/US/6-year-parents-neighbor-shot-after-basketball-rolls/story?id=98717589The guy get outraged by a basketball rolling into his yard, unloads a full magazine on four people, including a 6 year old "offender". Some similar stories in the last week alone: The North Carolina shooting follows a string of similar incidents where seemingly ordinary mistakes have led to serious consequences involving firearms. Over the last week, two cheerleaders in Texas were shot after entering the wrong car in a parking lot, a woman in New York was killed after entering the wrong driveway, and a 16-year-old in Missouri was shot after ringing the doorbell to the wrong home. |
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I think as for now Gensler stopped at shitcoins, because Bitcoin is no security. And that is good for BTC. I don't know how he will act in the future.. maybe he will get pressured by "someone" to attack BTC as well... who knows ... I'll be watching  you are trusting a career long politician to do something that is "good for bitcoin"? think again...he will change his mind when he will destroy the rest...he would find something wrong with whatever in bitcoin too, you just wait. Actually, even now, he suppresses bitcoin by NOT allowing bitcoin ETFs, clearly a repressive move that has not a single valid reason behind it. With such "friends", I would look over my shoulder all the time. I wonder why you always put words in my mouth? It's the second time now. I never said I trust him...  why should I? he seemingly was in bed with FTX I'm talking about what he is doing with regards to shitcoins vs Bitcoin.. that's it And apart from rejecting ETFs he has differentiated correctly between BTC and shitcoins to this date my bags would love see an US ETF, but I doubt that he is the only one in charge for that decision.. "Hey, buddy"...sorry, i forgot if this is for a fight or consolation of a child? You literally wrote: "Gensler stopped....and that is good for bitcoin." Those are your words, not mine and they came out of your mouth aka typing fingers. NOTHING he ever did is good for bitcoin, period. I don't trust a single word coming out of his mouth. |
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I think as for now Gensler stopped at shitcoins, because Bitcoin is no security. And that is good for BTC. I don't know how he will act in the future.. maybe he will get pressured by "someone" to attack BTC as well... who knows ... I'll be watching you are trusting a career long politician to do something that is "good for bitcoin"? think again...he will change his mind when he will destroy the rest...he would find something wrong with whatever in bitcoin too, you just wait. Actually, even now, he suppresses bitcoin by NOT allowing bitcoin ETFs, clearly a repressive move that has not a single valid reason behind it. With such "friends", I would look over my shoulder all the time. |
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You think he will stop at shitcoins...that's laughable. Maybe a few people here should read the "First they came" poem by M. Niemoller... ...it's quite relevant despite a multitude of the opposite opinions on this forum. |
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I don't support his views in general, but here is an interesting opinion from Albert Edwards (the article is the opinion about his opinion piece[which is behind the paywall]): https://fortune.com/2023/04/05/end-of-capitalism-inflation-greedflation-societe-generale-corporate-profits/Some nuggets: "something seems to have broken with capitalism"..in his opinion (and he referenced an academic paper) due to "...that corporations engaged in “price gouging” during the pandemic". He has some data points to point in that direction: "To his point, a January study from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City found that “markup growth”—the increase in the ratio between the price a firm charges and its cost of production—was a far more important factor driving inflation in 2021 than it has been throughout economic history." AE argues for price controls...puleeze, but if price gouging is true, then what to do? He predicts that price controls would be an easy way out for governments when the middle class, angry by the decimation of their living standards (due to inflation), turns against them. SEC seems to be clearing out the field for the big boys (NASDAQ, NYSE) to pounce, probably. There is another possibility, of course, but i don't want to seriously consider it. |
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An explanation for today's move:
Schwab came out with earnings and they "only" lost 30% of their deposits in the last 12 mo, which is already reflected in their price...so, no Armageddon yet.
That said, the Rube Goldberg machine of the financial sector always seems to find some balance, which is amazing.
On the other hand, State Street lost 10-11% today, so something is still brewing.
Since bitcoin gained quite a bit on bank's troubles, it is logical for it to lose a bit once those "troubles" are deemed (rightly or wrongly) as "diminished".
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well if we are repeating 2019 we get to 70% of all time high.
that was in july 2019 14k was 70% of 20k. rounded for ease.
so 49k is 70% of 70k rounded for ease of reading.
So 49k hits in next 3-4 months and we tank again till 2024 Spring fall
and peak in spring 2025.
It could happen.
ftfy, since the halving is in Spring, so, say 49K peak, then decline to 30K early 2024, then 40K by the halving. |
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the Sunday wall report
<snip>
arguably one of humanities most important milestones might be achieved...or at least a solid foot might get in the door tomorrow with reusable rocketry and the Starship/Booster maiden flight attempt
some of you dont care...and i get that...really...its an abstract concept thats hard to wrap ones mind around...thinking dozens or thousands of years into a unknowable future
i think humanities future will happen in space...and i think bitcoins will also
so trim a bit of sail if one feels the need and ahead one third towards the stars
steady on
dyor
Humanity needs to start working on a different type of propulsion to get to the stars. We ain't getting there on regular combustion engines, imho. Plasma, ionic, RDRE (using something exotic). It could easily take another 100-200 years to develop. Would we have that time before we can spread out? We shall see. |
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Cold from hell remnant
Still lives in my left nostril
A weird cold indeed
OT ha, I have something like this....running nose...in a couple of days it transitions to cough....then running nose again....then cough again..2wks already. Did not check for COVID early enough, now negative...weird. That 'cold' must have gotten 'something' from the other viruses. Buuut..it does not matter, the mood is still good due to our favorite pumping higher. |
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Thanks...interesting. Upon an initial read, here are some nuggets: they distinguish between "payment stablecoins" and "endogenously collaterized stablecoins". obviously, USDC/USDT fits into cat 1 and cat2 is like infamous 'almost dead' Luna. Cat 1 can only have cash, 90 day Treasury bills, deposits with Fed reserve and 7 day repurchasing agreements for 90 day bills backing it (at least 1:1). Another interesting point: deposits of payment stablecoins are deemed as legally belonging to a person, NOT to the institution which holds them. Even more interestingly, if a payment stablecoin issuer goes bankrupt, stablecoin owners have first dibs on remaining assets (their rights are higher than anybody else). On a more sombre note, stablecoins are NOT covered by FDIC and it is expressly forbidden telling customers otherwise. BTW, the issuance of new "endogenously collaterized" stablecoins is prohibited for 2 years under moratorium, but current are grandfathered in. Did not see a part if current "payment stablecoins" (like USDC/USDT) are grandfathered in or not-the doc it too long. Maybe someone else can pinpoint this part. Obviously, Wall Street wants to "play" with stablecoins, but, personally, I don't see much need for them now, especially when fast payment rails would be established soon. Perhaps, stablecoins is a way for banks to get back into the payments (after they were effectively cut off by the FedNow system). |
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I deleted my post, but decided to repost this "proper use of toilets" sign.
<snip>
I am excited by how happy this little rise to $30K has made me. The feeling as we cross $100K is going to be epic. yea, pretty much the same feeling after seeing the doldrums of 15.5-17K for quite a while. |
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During the week of Mar 13-20, Balaji's bet looked smart, but right now....meh. Balaji=reverse mindtrust inasmuch as both positions (taken at the time they were taken) represented the "extreme" read of the situation. The reality is always somewhere in between. Or, it was just a publicity stunt, it's hard to say. |
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