I’m not sure that betting on youth will be justified, Brazilians have a southern temperament, and in order to win tournaments you must be able to “take a hit” in difficult situations, and not just play for fun when “everything works out”. Although, again, you need to look at the names of what you mean. For example, the “experienced” Neymar seems to have never regained his restraint, and although now his return to football is generally in question, his behavior is typical of many Brazilian players. Even Vinny, who is more professional than Neymar, is very emotional.

Before the World Cup, the America's Cup 2024 will take place, which, of course, everyone has forgotten about against the backdrop of Euro 2024, but for local teams this is a top event and another failure of Brazil will be taken very painfully despite the status of the tournament. Brazil starts in a group with Colombia, Paraguay and the winner of the Costa Rica-Honduras pair and a place in the quarter-finals looks guaranteed, the only question is at what stage the meeting with Argentina will take place.

A ticket to the World Cup and even a place in the 1/8 are practically guaranteed due to the new format, but it is still completely unclear under whose leadership Brazil will go there. It seems that everything must be decided this summer and then we will find out Brazil’s approximate plans for the remaining cycle until the World Cup.

Given their endless budget, it seems strange to me to suggest that they are "saving energy" in order to do a rebuild. Guardiola always carried out endless restructuring in all the clubs where he was the head coach (despite the fact that in all three clubs he initially had a golden champion squad) and became the first coach to spend 2 billion on transfers. His strategy is quite simple: I have a top team, what should I do next? Buy stars: Ibrahimovic, Villa, Haaland, an endless list of defenders (they always cost less than strikers, but in fact these were top transfers). Then, if the purchase turned out to be successful, then we leave it in the team, if it is unsuccessful, then we sell and buy the next star.
Moreover, even FFP does not greatly interfere with this strategy, because if we already have a billion “in circulation,” then in order to make a large purchase we only sell “something unnecessary” and the balance of purchases and sales converges.

City's problems this season revolve around the injury of KDB, a key player who was never hyped like other tops and was not close to the Ballon d'Or, but seemed to be the key to City's success. There are rumors that at the end of this season KDB may leave for Saudi Arabia and I would fully support such a decision - he has already won everything he could at the club level, it’s time to earn "over" money, after all, in Saudi Arabia there may be a saturation of the necessary ones them players in a couple of years and contracts will no longer be so unreasonably fat.

As for this season, I don’t agree about concentrating on the Champions League - it’s irrational, since the playoffs are random and even Villarreal can knock out Bayern. Guardiola will try, as always, first of all to win the Premier League, and if there is failure in the Champions League, he will, as always, say that it was “bad luck.”

The last time I heard news about Barcelona's debt there was something in the region of a billion and three hundred million. This amount seems catastrophic, but in fact, with a budget of 800 million and the cost of the club in the region of 4.5 billion, this is not a debt that leads to immediate bankruptcy. Using an asset worth 4.5 billion as collateral you will refinance the debt in any bank. Even if Barcelona completely loses all its players, as a brand it will be worth about that much money. If now their debt is not at least increasing, then their situation is not so bad.

The only thing that can now lead to the imminent bankruptcy of Barcelona is if the Spanish prosecutor finds Barcelona guilty of bribing a referees (this is not only an internal matter in football, but also a question of dirty money, tax evasion, etc.). But judging by how slowly the case is developing, it is unlikely that anyone is interested in it ending with a fair decision. Most likely, it will be considered for 5 years and then closed due to the expiration of the statute of limitations. Classic  

As for Barcelona's irrational transfer policy, this is not a matter of choice - because of their financial problems, they take from the market not what they want, but what they can afford, and I will say even differently: they take something but cannot impose their conditions. Even City could not impose a huge amount on Haaland as a release clause. Barcelona's possibilities are even smaller in this regard.

In general, the fate of Barcelona now depends not on sporting results, but on how things will develop in the courts/prosecutor's office. But since this is part of the Spanish economy, the judges are unlikely to be harsh    

https://www.youtube.com/@GMHikaru/videos In case you need a lot of details.



As you can see, the topic is very hype and Nakamura made almost every second video about it. In short, former world champion Vladimir Kramnik conducted his own mathematical studies of the results of chess players (on Title Tuesday) and came to the conclusion that some results were anomalous (suspicion of cheating).

His first idea was very interesting: he analyzed the decisive games of chess players (the result of which directly affected whether they would receive prize money or not) and found that some chess players in such games showed a much better level of play than in others (in the same tournament). He compared everyone under the same conditions, so it is difficult to suspect him of bias. At the moment there is no explanation for such “anomalies”.

His second idea is more debatable: he began to look for long winning streaks and tried to calculate the probability of their occurrence from a mathematical point of view. Well, it seems like when Nakamura plays against a player 300 rating points lower, then the probability of Nakamura winning is 80-85%, which means a streak of 55 wins in a row is very, very unlikely. The nuance here is that Nakamura was famous for his entire career for rating farming (he selected convenient opponents whom he could beat in at least 40 games out of 40, and used other legal tricks), so this accusation led to the fact that everyone began to criticize Kramnik himself and accuse him of paranoia.

Yes, his second idea was very dubious and, unfortunately, its discussion overshadowed the completely rational idea number 1. Now everyone continues to insist on their point of view, but the scandal has subsided a little, the only bad thing is that nothing useful (in terms of fighting cheaters) has been done.

Considering that I prefer not to watch games on which I have made serious bets (sports betting), I keep my eyes closed all the time  
But of course, when I choose outcomes where, in my opinion, there is value, I very carefully evaluate all the information that is available to me at that moment. I don't believe in signs and tricks to attract good luck, so I don't use anything like that. Maybe I have a part of the “magical” worldview (for example, I often bet against events because I believe that if they happen, everything will be “unreasonably good” for the team I’m betting against) but mostly it is based on mathematics.

The human brain tends to look for patterns and it finds them even where there are none. For example, as you can see from this thread, many people had the idea to close their eyes while you press the button in the slot machine. Let's say one of 10 such gamblers was lucky and he won a small amount when he did this. He will try this trick again. And now (purely because of mathematics) one out of 100 (one out of ten who succeeded the first time) gamblers will win again after such a trick. At this moment, the pattern that “I close my eyes and my luck increases” will begin to take hold in his brain, subsequently, due to various cognitive distortions (discarding negative events and vividly experiencing positive ones), he will think that this ritual works.

Approximately according to this algorithm, people come to their personal signs/rituals and although they are (obviously) generally meaningless and have no effect, they continue to believe in them. Naturally, here I mean events that are not connected by cause-and-effect relationships, and not “rituals” like “go to work and you will have money.”   In this case, the events are logically connected and going to work is not a ritual, but a simple rational action.

Game 1:  32, 15'
Game 2:  32, 15'

🏀1. Bucks
🏈2. Yes
🏀3. Nuggets
🏈4. No
🏀5. Celtics
🏀6. 76ers
🏈7. No
🏀8. Suns

134

Look, if nothing changes (as has already happened due to Covid), then the World Club Championship in a new format will be held in the summer of 2025, 32 clubs will participate in it, lasting 1 month - a full-fledged big tournament.
Now let's assume that Infantino will be able to promote his other idea - the World Cup (at the national team level) every 2 years - another tightening of the games calendar. Where will we end up? To the point that players will start dying right on the field or that top clubs will have 60 players on their roster to participate in all tournaments?

As for Real, yes, their quotes can be questioned, but on the other hand, even now experiencing catastrophic problems, for the first time in 9 years they won all the games in the group stage of the Champions League + they are leading (if you do not take into account the upstart Girona) in La Liga very confidently. +7 points relative to Barcelona is a lot, this is the end of the competition, and Atlético are far from their best times and are also falling behind quite seriously.
After the New Year, most of the injured will return to duty and Real will at least not weaken, but in fact become stronger, and how can the competitors become stronger? I haven't heard about any big transfers or anything like that. The only thing that could make Barcelona a little stronger is a change of coach, but it doesn't seem like the management is ready for that.
Real is currently rated so highly not only because it is so good, but also because its competitors are in crisis.

Охуенно.


Представляю какой-нибудь маленький криптообменник/физическое лицо который зарабатывает на обмене крипты: а потом бац! его уничтожают (возможно в физическом смысле) "патамушто террорист" 

Что касается того что Чейнанализ за что-то там вступился я бы это так не оценивал: они вступились за свой бизнес. Если все будет забанено/запрещено, то что же они будут анализировать? За анализ фиата (чьего надо фиата) они сами в тюрячку попадут - там надо очень аккуратно анализировать так как можно задеть денежные потоки тех кого надо  , а финансы обычных крестьян банки сами прекрасно мониторят + с введением СВDС это будет еще легче.
В статье они конечно пишут про тотальный КУС (при пользовании крипты лол), но сами вряд ли этого хотят и вряд ли в это верят - нахер они будут тогда нужны?

---

В связи с медианной комсой за транзы в битке в 25-30 баксов, у меня вопрос: миксеры еще естественным путем не сдуваются? Вряд ли дофига клиентов с такими затратами хотят сейчас вообще хоть какие-то транзакции делать.

Absolutely my thoughts, even before I got acquainted with the odds. I love multi bets with big odds but this single bet looks really good on its own. City, given their ongoing failures, may not particularly want to play an extra game in the final - even if formally it is a title and a trophy, we all know that this is a friendly competition that interests little less than anyone 

I read a little about the underdog - the most expensive Urava football player is the central defender from Denmark Scholz (2 million euros), while the total cost of the squad is about twenty million, 2x10 = 20, if Scholz is the most expensive then the entire squad is counted and not just the players main (11 people) squad 

If we think about it from this point of view, the odds of 20 look like the bookmakers’ greed and Urawa’s overestimation. But still, it seems to me that there is value in your pick, in the end, even if it turns out to be a successful pick, you will still be in the minus, so we can assume that before this the randomness “didn’t give you enough” and everything is about to change.

Firstly, I think that fixed games are almost non-existent at the top level - the business of top clubs and top players is too expensive (literally billions) to risk it. The Bayern Munich football club is worth several billion dollars and their annual budget is about a billion. How can they be involved in fixed games if in order to implement them you need to involve a lot of people (a big risk) plus for it to pay off you have to earn tens of millions - but such “earnings” will not go unnoticed either by bookmakers and by financial monitoring authorities for money laundering and other murky transactions. I believe that at the top level, fixed games do not exist simply for economic reasons, therefore, they do not concern or bother me in any way.

The entire area of fixed games is in sports (and athletes) where little money are in turnover and any outside income makes sense. In football, these are 2nd 3rd leagues where players like (on their own or by agreement with “helpers”) to bet on the fact that a yellow card will be given at a certain minute. But such options are obvious to everyone, so bookmakers monitor large bets here and if there are suspicions, they simply return the bet to the sly ones with odds of 1 (all in accordance with the rules), so the earnings here are not as great as the sly ones would like.

I heard that there is a separate sport that, on the one hand, is quite popular, but on the other, not very profitable and it is very, very affected by fixed games - this is table tennis. Firstly, there is always a high volatility of results, which allows you to “justify” unexpected turns in games when the favorite, after winning 2 sets, unexpectedly loses three sets in a row. Or, for example, when the favorite in a certain game loses all his serves. There is a very large space for fixed games (and btw when only one side is cunning and tries to make illegal profits).

Does this affect me in any way? Absolutely not. Firstly, I place bets mainly on top competitions (where, as you remember, in my opinion, there are simply no fixed games). Secondly, even if I bet on a fixed game where the result will be crooked (relative to the “fair” outcome), then at a distance it will not matter to me since in one case it will be in my favor, and in another case against me. + - everything will be balanced.

This season is a real disaster for Real Madrid in terms of injuries. And maybe I’m subjective like everyone else, but this endless stream of news about serious injuries to players makes me think that maybe this is firstly the consequences of the last super intense season. Secondly, these are the “accumulated” consequences of the fact that UEFA and FIFA are gradually tightening the calendar of games. I think something needs to be done about this - everyone loves good games and would like there to be more of them, but if half of the players are constantly injured, then it can hardly be called good football.

Meanwhile, Real Madrid became an even clearer favorite:

Real Madrid 1.27

Girona 6.86

Barcelona Fc 7.35

Atlético Madrid 12.74

Everything is logical: competitors lose points in unimportant games, and Real Madrid gains points even despite the absence of many players. It will be funny if this season the title is really played out between Real and Girona, now they (Girona) are already rated twice as good as Atlético.

For some reason, I was sure that City would have Copenhagen as its opponent (and not, for example, Napoli). I don’t want to start a conspiracy theory, but when they have problems, they will 100% get the easiest option. But if Bayern or Real Madrid have problems, then we can see them play with City, but not otherwise (yes, I’m still burning from the fact that Real Madrid received only strong opponents during the entire playoffs for two seasons in a row).

Personally, I see Arsenal, PSG, Dortmund (hehe I believe in them), City as the clear favorites.
Napoli - Barcelona is a battle of two losers and here the teams will compete not for who is better, but for who is not as bad as the opponent. I could be wrong but Napoli will be slight favorites.
Inter - Atlético are an incomprehensible pair. Both teams are good but not good enough, Inter has a slightly better “image” due to Serie A, but Atlético is not afraid of image  
Oddly enough, I don’t think that the games with Lazio will be easy for Bayern, although Bayern, according to the bookmakers, will be the clear favorite. There may be something like a draw and a minimal victory. It won't be an easy walk.
Leipzig - Real Madrid is also far from an obvious pairing for me - everything will depend on whether all the injured return to duty or not. And here I am waiting for Total over 3.5. 3-1, 3-2, 4-2 - a very likely score in this pair.

What a pleasure to look at such quotes!

Manchester city 2.25

Arsenal 3.45

Liverpool 3.75

Aston Villa 15.00

Tottenham Hotspur 31.00

https://stake.com/sports/outright/soccer/england/premier-league/43600879-premier-league-23-24

In just three rounds, City's quotes fell from 1.1 to 2.25!  For a round-robin tournament, I think this is a record for how quickly bookmakers' opinions change.
I said back in the first quarter/third of the season that City had an anomalous calendar - at first all the easy games, then all the difficult ones, and the fact that at the beginning of the season they lost points even with outsiders is a sign that they could fail against strong competitors. And now this scenario has fully come true. Now (even though City are still favorites) these quotes seem adequate to me and I would call this a return to normality from being distorted.

An interesting nuance - after the previous round, Liverpool was in the lead, and Arsenal was behind, but the bookmakers quoted Arsenal as favorites over Liverpool. And literally within a round, the position of the teams became the way the bookmakers see it. Liverpool couldn't beat dead United (it's a pity that they couldn't) and probably destroyed a lot of bets from bettors who expected United's fall to continue. In fact, United's decline continued (33% is not what a team close to the top should score), but they took two important points from Liverpool.

I wonder if West Ham can beat United in the next round -> oust them from the European competition zone -> sack Ten Hag 

Firstly, I heard two versions of how things are now in the negotiations between Real and Mbappe:

1. Real Madrid does not make any offers but is waiting for an initiative from Mbappe, since the club’s interest is obvious, so it is waiting for a serious deal and not using itself in the auction (as was the case a year ago).

2. Real Madrid have made an offer and are waiting for a final decision from Mbappe until January 15th (apparently in the form of signing a preliminary contract, the execution of which will be very expensive to evade). If Mbappe does not agree, then Real Madrid will prepare to buy Haaland.

As for the fact that Real can easily wait until the summer when Mbappe becomes a free agent and only then sign him, I think this is not the case. One way or another, Mbappe is one of the best players of the generation and it may turn out that another strong club will get involved in the fight - maybe Liverpool, maybe Bayern (which, using the example of Kane, realized that making expensive purchases is not so bad and may decide on another top transfer). This situation will make it difficult to sign due to competition and the fact that the price for Mbappe will rise again.

This is the first time I’ve heard about this and in fact it’s hard for me to imagine Modric and Messi in the same team. It seems to me that their playing roles overlap greatly and, unlike Messi, Modric, even at his age, does a lot of grunt work, but the most important thing is that he runs and does not wait in pedestrian mode for good opportunities. And I also remember when Modric was asked in an interview which of the most difficult opponents you had to play against, he said that it was Iniesta  I don’t think that Messi’s PR has a strong influence on Modric and I don’t think that it will be easy for them to get along in the same team. I rather expect that Modric will go to Saudi Arabia - there he will receive more money, plus after all, there he will be able to play at a good level.

Today's game schedule is quite interesting - you can start watching football at lunchtime and finish late at night, it's a pity that, as always, one game is scheduled for Sunday and therefore I won't find out the results in the poll today.
I wonder why the chances of Atlético against Athletic are rated so low:

2.35 - 3.38 - 2.88

In all statistical indicators, Atlético is better, and even though this is an away game, it seems to me that Atlético should be the favorite.

A reasonable strategy, but if I’m not mistaken, the odds are very small (less than 1.5) and even if you made a multi-bet on all 4 games, the total odds are 1.5⁴=5.06
Is such a profit worth the risk that the favorite will leave his goal intact in at least one of the games? It seems to me that even despite the low status of the tournament and the “easy” attitude on the part of the one who wins the tournament (European team hahaha, this year City) there is a very high probability that the opponent simply will not be able to score a goal.

By the way, is this the last year that we are watching the world championship among clubs in this format? I know that FIFA seriously planned to reform it and multiply the number of games and participants. Starting next year, the European Champions League will be held in a new format, so it would be quite logical that this competition would also be held in a new way. But in fact, in both competitions, this will lead to the fact that only the games of the final stages (starting from 1/4) will be interesting, and everything else, as always, will be a tedious prelude (with rare exceptions, like this year’s group F in the European Champions League).

Just today I read the news that Real is waiting for an exact answer from Mbappe regarding his transfer to Real before January 15th. If Mbappe does not agree to the transfer (apparently we are talking about a preliminary contract), then Real will sign Haaland. This is a tough position and, in my opinion, completely correct, since Mbappe has proven himself to be an unreliable party in negotiations. I hope in this winter transfer window we will see at least some but final solution to this endless epic.

Mbappe can go to Real Madrid or refuse, I look at this as two equal outcomes - I don’t care anymore. But now Haaland's move to Real Madrid (which I wanted before) gives me doubts - he has minor injuries, but where is the guarantee that they will not continue? Football players have some key age points “transition from youth to adulthood” and then from “adulthood to maturity” at which they can “break down” - seriously deteriorate their athletic performance. It’s too early to talk about the second transition point in the case of Haaland, but maybe the first one has already occurred (in terms of age, this is true) and his brightest period is behind him? Now I think buying him (which will be very expensive) is risky.

14. Leon Edwards
13. Alexandre Pantoja
12. Shavkat Rakhmonov
11. Tony Ferguson
10. ---
9. Josh Emmett
8. Irene Aldana
7. Cody Garbrandt
6. Casey O’Neill
5. Alonzo Menifield
4. Tagir Ulanbekov
3. Andre Fili
2. Martin Buday
1. Randy Brown

NOT go the Full Distance 5

Game 1:  23, 23'
Game 2:  23, 23'