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2141  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 03, 2020, 08:26:47 AM
In order to assess bitcoin’s price for investment purposes we need a long term perspective.
Now we identify a monotonic trend, which I'll call the attractor, and determine a method to compare current price to that trend.



How long it takes to break even at the price attractor serves as a useful criterion to judge the loftiness of the current price.
For example, on July 1 2014 bitcoin cost $638.25.  It took 879 days (yellow line) for the attractor (red curve) to reach that price.
In other words, it would take 879 days for coins bought on July 1 2014 to break even at the attractor.
Bitcoin's price history maps on this "break-even days" function.



Break-even days tells us how favorable the current exchange rate is for investing.
Low break-even days indicates a good buy.  An excessively high break-even time (perhaps 1000 days) means sell.
At intermediate values, you could gradually increase and decrease your bitcoin holdings in inverse proportion to the break-even days indicator.

Of course the critical question is whether the underlying trend continues to hold.
For about ten years, the attractor served as a reliable indicator of support that bitcoin always tended toward, when not in periods of mania, and didn't break below.
When the legacy markets crashed in March 2020, bitcoin's price broke through this long-established trend dramatically.
Bitcoin's subsequent behaviour, in my opinion, vindicates the robustness of the attractor.  
Price immediately rose after the crash without signs of weakness, met the attractor, and proceeded promptly into postive territory.
The crypto absorbed severe exogenous shock and shook it off like nothing.  As the saying goes, honey badger don't care.

Very useful, thanks.

The graphs clearly show that the times around the Halving events (2012, 2016, 2020) are some of the best times to buy Bitcoin. Rather obvious to many of us, but it's very nice to see it pictured graphically so clearly.
2142  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 03, 2020, 07:07:22 AM


Man, the British guy with the banner is dressed like he's going to Alaska, while Mark Karpelès is dressed like he's going to the beach...

Is it the fat or what?
2143  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 02, 2020, 09:55:25 PM
Nonsense!

There's no boot like a Carolina Boot.



Certified for moon walking (going to need it soon, better stock up)...
2144  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 02, 2020, 01:07:04 PM
Oh is it the halfing soon?

Yup. The hafling is in 10 days.
2145  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 02, 2020, 12:52:57 PM

Here's the full clip, from the best gangster movie even made. Joe Pesci's performance is top-notch, and this clip earned him an Oscar.

Note that the entire scene is totally improvised (no script).

Goodfellas (1990) - Tommy DeVito: "Funny How?"
2146  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 30, 2020, 01:19:59 PM
By the way, we all know that vegetas power level is way above 9000 right?
Yes, bitcoin did make a big jump in last 24 hours.



Don't bury it yet... It will jump again.

It ain't dead baby, it ain't dead...
2147  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 30, 2020, 11:11:26 AM
A nice surprise:

Quote
@RealVision has released my Oct 2019 interview with @RaoulGMI "The Quantitative Case for Bitcoin" on S2F model. A good start before diving into the new S2FX model!

https://www.realvision.com/shows/the-interview/videos/the-quantitative-case-for-bitcoin




https://twitter.com/100trillionusd/status/1255805636555739138?s=21

Great interview.
Real vision has a 6months trial for 1 Euro, but you have to provide credit card information, which is unconvenient.

I cannot understand, for the life of me, how this guy can type on such a teeny-weeny keyboard! Must be into S&M...

Sorry for the silly post, I'm sure your post is great, just had to comment on the KB thing...
2148  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 30, 2020, 08:26:14 AM
Vegeta is nice and cute, but I hope we leave him permanently behind... $9k should not be visited again.

On to $90k and beyond... Got to find a character for $90k.

Not Carolina, no, she's reserved for $1M/BTC.
2149  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 30, 2020, 05:44:02 AM
Good morning WOs!

Congrats to rdbase!

...and to all HoDLers, as we're all winners here!

No memes yet from me, this is a natural and expected price increase, no biggie.

The meme-a-thon shall be unleashed when we reach ATH in a few months.

HoDL.
2150  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 28, 2020, 12:34:41 PM
Imagine selling your $BTC two weeks before the halvening is happening DURING a global pandemic.

Some people really wanna work at McDonald's.

https://twitter.com/btc_macro/status/1254827784867688448?s=21

For someone to panic sell at a random time point, just because he/she got scared of a dip, this I can understand...

But, to sell everything A FEW MONTHS BEFORE A HALVING EVENT tells me that this person doesn't have a clue how Bitcoin works!

My biggest accumulation period was just before the 2016 Halving... In fact, it was the incoming 2016 Halving, and reading (and understanding) S.N.'s White Paper and Andreas Antonopoulos's famous book, that made me purchase my first 0.5 BTC for $100. Just compare to today's BTC price... It's simply inconceivable for me to sell even a tiny amount of BTC at this time.

HoDL.
2151  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 23, 2020, 12:02:44 PM
We're dildoing again.

Dammit Phil, I was expecting something larger after reading your post

Soon. Very soon.
2152  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 23, 2020, 11:47:40 AM
We're dildoing again.
2153  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 16, 2020, 07:22:48 PM
Hey WO guys 'n' gal(s)!

Earlier today, as I was staring at my 3D printer (very therapeutic) while it was printing a cute doll as a present for my little niece, I thought of a great idea (IMHO) for storing copies of our Bitcoin seeds as a backup.

When a 3D printer prints an object, there is a parameter called "infill", which controls how "solid" the object is going to be. The standard infill value is 20%, meaning that the object will be internally filled with 20% of material. Lower values save material, produce lighter objects, while still maintaining good strength by filling the inside of the object with various patterns, such as triangles, honey-comb shapes, etc. To have an idea of how the object looks internally, see the image below, showing varying infill degrees for 3D-printed parts:



The idea: pick an object you like (preferably not related to Bitcoin) as a decoration to your home/office, and 3D-print it with an infill of around 10% (a very coarse inner structure). Prepare a small piece of paper with the seed (or part of the seed, or whatever you want to hide/backup), roll it and slip it inside the object as it's being printed. When the printing completes, the piece of paper or whatever you have placed inside the object will be completely sealed and there is no way to tell if there's anything inside, unless you break it or X-ray it. The beauty of 3D printing is that the final object is geometrically completely closed and there are no openings or seams on its surface. You could even split the seed in different parts and scatter them inside decorations at home/office.

I think it's a cool and inconspicuous way to hide things...

WOW.
This is something really smart.
This is basically a "smuggled 3d printed opendime".
You cannot spend the private key until the external envelope is broken.

Problem.
It is a viable option only for those who have a physical access to the 3d printer, as I don't want to trust anyone slipping a private key inside my object.
 

That's a problem, yes, but nowadays you can have a decent 3D printer for a few hundred dollars, or you can visit a friend and do your dirty thing with his printer.
2154  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 16, 2020, 06:57:17 PM
Hey WO guys 'n' gal(s)!

Earlier today, as I was staring at my 3D printer (very therapeutic) while it was printing a cute doll as a present for my little niece, I thought of a great idea (IMHO) for storing copies of our Bitcoin seeds as a backup.

When a 3D printer prints an object, there is a parameter called "infill", which controls how "solid" the object is going to be. The standard infill value is 20%, meaning that the object will be internally filled with 20% of material. Lower values save material, produce lighter objects, while still maintaining good strength by filling the inside of the object with various patterns, such as triangles, honey-comb shapes, etc. To have an idea of how the object looks internally, see the image below, showing varying infill degrees for 3D-printed parts:



The idea: pick an object you like (preferably not related to Bitcoin) as a decoration to your home/office, and 3D-print it with an infill of around 10% (a very coarse inner structure). Prepare a small piece of paper with the seed (or part of the seed, or whatever you want to hide/backup), roll it and slip it inside the object as it's being printed. When the printing completes, the piece of paper or whatever you have placed inside the object will be completely sealed and there is no way to tell if there's anything inside, unless you break it or X-ray it. The beauty of 3D printing is that the final object is geometrically completely closed and there are no openings or seams on its surface. You could even split the seed in different parts and scatter them inside decorations at home/office.

I think it's a cool and inconspicuous way to hide things...
2155  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 16, 2020, 01:47:03 PM
A hacker is exploiting trust in well-known brands by creating fake cryptocurrency wallet extensions for Google Chrome that trick victims into disclosing sensitive information.

Quote
Harry Denley, director of security at wallet provider MyCrypto, who identified the fake wallet extensions, said in a report Tuesday that Google has so far removed 49 extensions that purported to be well-known crypto wallets from its Chrome Web Store.

The fake extensions are basic phishing plays. Posing as legitimate wallets, they leak personal information inputted by users, such as private keys and passwords, to the hacker, who can then drain balances in a matter of seconds.

The fakes detected have so far claimed to be wallets such as Ledger, Trezor, Jaxx, Electrum, MyEtherWallet, MetaMask, Exodus, and KeepKey. Test amounts of crypto sent by Denley have not been picked up, suggesting that either the hacker has to manually empty wallets or that they are only interested in comparatively large balances.

https://www.coindesk.com/mystery-hacker-tries-to-steal-crypto-through-fake-google-chrome-wallet-extensions

Discovering Fake Browser Extensions That Target Users of Ledger, Trezor, MEW, Metamask, and More

https://medium.com/mycrypto/discovering-fake-browser-extensions-that-target-users-of-ledger-trezor-mew-metamask-and-more-e281a2b80ff9

It's all good. Those who enter private keys and other sensitive information about their Bitcoin into any Chrome extension applet that asks them to, do not deserve to own any BTC. It's the laws of nature at work: Bitcoin (and other objects of value) naturally flows towards the smartest owner.

Remember Peter Shiff?

Quote
“My #Bitcoin mystery is solved. I mistook my pin for my password. When Blockchain updated their app I got logged out. I [tried] logging back in using my pin, which was the only ‘password’ I had ever known or used. I also never had a copy of my seed phrase. Honest but costly mistake!”

Yeah, right. Fuck you, Peter. And thanks for distributing the value of your coins evenly to all of us Bitcoin HoDLers...

This is fine.

HoDL.
2156  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 14, 2020, 06:48:22 AM
I can't really understand how it is possible for someone to get addicted to smoking cigarettes... I tried to smoke a normal, filtered cigarette (Marlboro I think it was) once in my life (in my 20s), and it was one of the most horrible experiences I've ever had in my entire life! Nearly threw up!

I simply cannot accept that someone would feel good when smoking a cigarette for the first time. The only explanation I can give to how someone can become addicted to it, is to keep smoking (without liking it) due to peer pressure, and to try to fit in with one's social circle, and eventually the nicotine effects/addiction start kicking in.

I don't mind men smoking (my father was a heavy smoker, died from it in his early 70s -- lung cancer), but I absolutely hate seeing a girl/woman smoke. I believe it just totally spoils the beauty and femininity of a girl/woman, it's against her nature, and makes her look ugly, broken, rough and dirty (in a bad way -- there are other, good kinds of "dirty"). That's just my opinion, of course...

I believe it was the tobacco companies in the USA that heavily promoted cigarettes for women as a fashion/status symbol, to maximise their profits, and they succeeded.

Strange creatures we are...
2157  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 09, 2020, 09:15:16 PM


Stay safe guys ('n' gal).

Toilet paper still in abundance.

This is fine.

HoDL.
2158  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 07, 2020, 12:14:06 PM
The moment the COVID-19 pandemic slows down and we're globally in control of the virus, is the time BTC will begin its mega-pump. I'm expecting 5-digit values soon, even an ATH within the year.

I can't prove this of course, it's a SOMA prediction, as are all predictions.

HoDL.
2159  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 07, 2020, 10:01:05 AM

Best answer:

Quote
Anonymous (ID: CHgAfMIq) 04/07/20(Tue)11:37:46 No.252347528▶>>252347695

    Give me Israel for $20 and I keep the other 80 bucks.

    USA and NATO will fight the war for me.

Speaking of which, where dafaq is r0ach?
2160  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 06, 2020, 02:21:13 PM
I'd love to see $14000... maybe we'll get there by the end of 2020. Seems possible.

Yes, it does...

Will be a sweet present after COVID-19.

I have no plans to go elsewhere.
There is no such thing as after me, sry.

See you around...

Sorry, but you don't stand a chance...
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