Martin Armstrong Discussion

[dibley8899]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7wJ_BTOLxxo

I posted a comment there under scammersglobal but its only showing up when i login...hmmmmmm

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[s29]

No Panic Cycle week. Armstrong's call was (another) failure. According to the site, a Panic Cycle is defined as an outside reversal to penetrate the previous session high or low. This week was an inside session; the Dow did not at any point exceed last week's high or low.

Not only that (the S&P was down a lousy 1% on the week):

What he basically is saying now is: a high around Saturday January 18 (week before or after)= turning down 20%+ into Q1 2021. Only if US share markets make a low on the ECM we would rally in 2020 once we take out 2019 high.
For now, taking out 28.971,94 on a weekly basis could mean going toward 30k.

Again a failure of Armstrong's "if that happens, then this is going to happen". The Dow was down this week and not tested the 30k despite electing the 28.971,94 number the week before that.

[s29]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7wJ_BTOLxxo

So Armstrong clearly states in the interview that the ECM turning point is from a business cycle perspective. Why the hell does he mentions climate change, seperatism, impeachment, Libya, Russia, Syria, war, epidemics etc in his writings to make sense of this 2020 ECM turning point?

But let's take the business cycle perspective:





The PMI's in Europe and the US (and also China) already bottomed in July and August this year (remember, the published data is 1 month after). So the business cycle low was probably in the summer of 2019, not in January 2020! (unless the numbers coming out in February have to get very bad quickly somehow)

Not only that, shouldn't you be bullish way before that business cycle low turning point since stock markets usually lead 6 to 9 months?
Oh no, Armstrong was bearish the whole way through! He talks again about the most hated bull market in history. He must be talking about himself.

And what he says in the interview also contradicts what he said just last week:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/ecm-armstrongeconomics101/ecm-the-rise-in-intensity-into-2032/

ECM & the Rise in Intensity into 2032
Posted Jan 18, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

On top of that, we have bubble tops forming in many different markets.

Here he says that we have bubble tops forming in many markets. In the interview he ONLY mentions the bond market, and the rest should go higher.

[s29]

The Dow's next major test is the 40,000 level: Martin Armstrong

Isn't it amazing how the entire interview of our charlatan by the MSM is completely fact free? What a complete waste of time! Except that here we are once again given the opportunity to check everything (doing the work that the fake news morons fail to do). So what is this? Propaganda? Gossip?

By the way: didn't Armstrong mentions at least once a week how the mainstream media is always ignoring him and that he uses it as a badge of honor?
Now he appeared on Bloomberg, I hope Marty finally shuts up about it.

[AnonymousCoder]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7wJ_BTOLxxo

I posted a comment there under scammersglobal but its only showing up when i login...hmmmmmm

Your comment was censored such as was mine.

See

Why does my Comment only show up when I am logged in?

But he got your message and you can still vote the video down!

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog

[s29]

Yes, I have access. I just wanted to know what he would say now around this "important" ECM date.
And I always try to look at it with an open mind. No matter if he was wrong in the past on reversals, could he be right on an ECM turning?
If he would have claimed a big high last Friday in the DOW untill Q1/Q2 2021, and if that happens, then that would be a big call as we have been rallying non stop for years.
But now what he says is basically that if we go down - we go down, and if we go up - we go up.

So the reversals and array's are not working (as showed on this blog) and now also his ECM turning can go both ways.

In the interview again he says something different than on the Private Blog. In the interview he says probably first a correction, then new highs.

So he's playing it three ways. If it's goes down - we go down, if it goes up - we go up, and if it goes down - we later could be up as well  

[dibley8899]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7wJ_BTOLxxo

I posted a comment there under scammersglobal but its only showing up when i login...hmmmmmm

Your comment was censored such as was mine.

See

Why does my Comment only show up when I am logged in?

But he got your message and you can still vote the video down!

Must be a paid advert from marty to bloomberg thats why they are monitoring the page.





Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog

[AnonymousCoder]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7wJ_BTOLxxo

I posted a comment there under scammersglobal but its only showing up when i login...hmmmmmm

Your comment was censored such as was mine.

See

Why does my Comment only show up when I am logged in?

But he got your message and you can still vote the video down!

Must be a paid advert from marty to bloomberg thats why they are monitoring the page.

We should complain about the original interview:

The Dow's next major test is the 40,000 level: Martin Armstrong at their contact page


Meanwhile, there is another interview video already:


U.S. Fed battling free market over control of real rates: Martin Armstrong

Hard to keep up with his advertising campaigns.



Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog

[SOC1]

An excerpt from MA his 2014 Cycles of War Report (2014!!!)

https://i.imgur.com/Zp6otO2.png

ECM 2020.05...

Ooh but wait... you bunch of circle jerkers here can argue now that the news reports came out in 2020 and that he was wrong.

Goodbye

Confirming once again that MA was wrong and his theory totally bogus?

No plague or pandemic has struck and currently we do not know what will happen with the coronavirus. Even if there is a pandemic this year, it still flies in the face of his ECM claim that it predicts things "to the day". Plus, there are already active programmes by real scientists to predict the next pandemic, astutely named PREDICT: https://www.ecohealthalliance.org/program/predict


To your point, see this MA blog post from 2 Oct 2014, the same year that report was published:

"The plague cycle appears to be reaching an important high in 2019."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/will-the-demise-be-plague-or-economics/


There was no plague and it did not reach any "high". Moreover, that was based on MA's invented "big bang" hoax of 2015.75, where everything was supposed to "turn down" into 2020.05.

All of it the invention of a mind that I feel is turning increasingly senile if his recent blog posts are anything to go by.


MA is now totally discredited. The research, evidence and content on this board over the past 8 months are damning and leaves little to counter unless, as an avid follower, you are in a state of denial that your cult-like leader has been deceiving you all this time.

Caveat emptor.

Today's latest blog is saying that the next chance of a pandemic will be 2022.....the goal posts keep on moving!  He can never be wrong that way....if nothing happens in 2022, it will be 2024.  Its just a guessing game at the end of the day.

[Indyz]

Some of the MA sponsored trolls have tucked their tails between their legs and have disappeared.
No worries, new ones will arrive soon to proclaim how great the liar is.

MA competes with realtors when it comes to dishonesty.

[dibley8899]

       

Edited version I think

https://youtu.be/w90gBSBEZXc


 

[Indyz]

MA is just another symptom of the corruption disease that's endemic throughout the markets.

Fed, politicians, real estate pros, stocks - fraud and enriching the oligarchy is everywhere.

MA is just warming his hands in the corruption fire 🔥 that is consuming us.

[s29]

Today's latest blog is saying that the next chance of a pandemic will be 2022.....the goal posts keep on moving!  He can never be wrong that way....if nothing happens in 2022, it will be 2024.  Its just a guessing game at the end of the day.

Truly amazing accuracy! Sometime in 2022.

By the way, his Dow 40,000 and 65,000 prediction for 2024 and 2032 is actually not really difficult to make.

Stock market historical returns is  generally considered   Dow Jones  Index (Djia)  average yealy  returns.Djia  average yearly return was 7.7539% without adjusting dividends and inflation from 1921 to 2018.

If you add 4 years of 7.75% compounded to the current Dow 29,000 you get Dow 39,090. Very close to the 40,000 level.

If you add 12 years of 7.75% compounded to the current Dow 29,000 you get Dow 71,024. Quite close to the 65,000 level.

Amazing predictions again from Armstrong!

[s29]

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/products_services/products/manipulating-the-world-economy-1st-edition-is-going-for-2000/

Manipulating the World Economy 1st Edition is going for $2,000+?
Blog/Reports and DVDs
Posted Jan 26, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Your book is on eBay selling for $300 and a first edition is up for auction starting at $2,000. It will be interesting to see what it brings.

WJ

REPLY: The 1st edition autographed would be correct. I have heard that the 2nd edition which sold out on Amazon in less than 3 hours has been selling in an auction on average at $275+ so I suppose $300 is reasonable. Of course, even the 2nd editions of works tend to rise in value among collectors. I know the Greatest Bull Market in history goes for about $2500-$3000 on eBay. I have been asked to autograph those at conferences on occasion. I only have one of those myself. I never expected the first edition of this one to take off in value as it has. I was too busy to keep more than one copy myself (sorry not for sale!).

We will be doing a 3rd edition next month of Manipulating the World Economy. That will undoubtedly not impact the prices of the 2nd and 1st editions in the least and historically the 1st and 2nd editions always go for a premium. I am fully aware that there are a lot of people who collect books. I myself have bought first editions of many important books like that of Adam Smith, David Ricardo, Marx, and many others.

The first edition of Smith will bring over $20,000. The first editions are always worth a lot more. In his case, even an early edition from Edinburgh in 1809 will bring between $3,000 and $4,000.

Even a 5th edition of Malthus will bring $3,000 these days.

So it looks like the autographed copies of the first edition we handed out at the Orlando Conference are worth about the price of the ticket to attend.

I am planning to do the same with the next book in the series for this year’s WEC.

So how does Armstrong justify the extremely high price for his WEC tickets? Saying you're getting a book that is worth or will be worth (tens of) thousands! You can say about Armstrong whatever you want, but he must be the greatest snake oil salesman of all time.

[DanB1]

So far, Socrates has been spot on which I find remarkable if this continues.
According to MA, a lower closing this week will mean that we go down further in February.

[nstrdms]

So far, Socrates has been spot on which I find remarkable if this continues.
According to MA, a lower closing this week will mean that we go down further in February.

That's an incredibly remarkable forecast. Absolutely amazing. Hopefully it continues so you can keep finding it remarkable. /s

[AnonymousCoder]

So far, Socrates has been spot on which I find remarkable if this continues.
According to MA, a lower closing this week will mean that we go down further in February.

That's an incredibly remarkable forecast. Absolutely amazing. Hopefully it continues so you can keep finding it remarkable. /s

Spot on nstrdms! Thank you. You are highlighting a fallacy, and I have been watching this for some time. That flip-flop type of evaluation (I would not call it analysis by any stretch of the imagination) with disregard of continuity, consistency, credibility. At best, this would be recency bias. Is he still trying to find some gold nuggets in a pile of garbage?

And most importantly, Socrates has NOT and would not have forecast this, because Socrates has elected bullish reversals on the high which are now turning into bad losses. Statistically it is all noise and no consistent gains are possible.

What MA is doing is to scatter forecasts like a shotgun. Then in hindsight he creates a sales campaign around the one out of many that succeeded while ignoring the failed ones.

Subsequently he literally forces his readers to make the leap of faith that this must be attributed to Socrates, with the aim of meeting his sales objectives. DanB1 just highlights this trap - indeed a prime example.

That is why I do not focus so much on these forecasts whether they fail or not. I focus on the methods that MA applies to sell snake oil by fooling everyone (except a few) all the time. The discussion whether there was a forecast of this event - whether it turns out to be correct or not - is futile. I do not want to become a forecaster, if so then I would not be better than MA.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog

[Traxo]

An excerpt from MA his 2014 Cycles of War Report (2014!!!)

https://i.imgur.com/Zp6otO2.png

ECM 2020.05...

Ooh but wait... you bunch of circle jerkers here can argue now that the news reports came out in 2020 and that he was wrong.

Today's latest blog is saying that the next chance of a pandemic will be 2022.....the goal posts keep on moving!  He can never be wrong that way....if nothing happens in 2022, it will be 2024.  Its just a guessing game at the end of the day.

So, even Martin himself forgot about the document that that Looneyexpress quoted?


As I said
 

Oh, "circle jerkers" could also argue that MA scattershot multiple dates for same prediction in other blogs/reports. Who knows.

What MA is doing is to scatter forecasts like a shotgun. Then in hindsight he creates a sales campaign around the one out of many that succeeded while ignoring the failed ones.

That's it. Yet some cult members will dig out what even Marty can't.

[blinder007]

So far, Socrates has been spot on which I find remarkable if this continues.
According to MA, a lower closing this week will mean that we go down further in February.

But - But  -  But !!!   Wasn't Jan 2020 to be a LOW  ?  Since 2015:   Economies down. Governments down, stocks down, interest rates up, Real estate down  and again since last summer:  down into 01/2020.

Then change of script:  maybe top, maybe low.   Then the ultimate fail:  Last Friday literally within hours on the All Time Top in Nasdaq 100:  Video with next level in DJ 40'000  Whoahhhh  kind of funny - I mean really?

And I worked over 30 years with big financial institutions.   Nobody there would ever be interested in such analysis.

[DanB1]

To call a top/turning point months before it happens is a big call. The DOW could as well just continued going up last week and this week. But for some reasons the market seems to turn. Look at Europe this morning, we haven't seen this for some time.

So whatever happened, Socrates picked up some signal. You can call it sheer coincidence or BS or whatever, I couldn't care less. For me opinions are worthless, facts matter.
I think any serieus investor should always keep an open mind and I'm happy that I closed some positions before the ECM. I might be adding again depending on what happens next, no idea at this point.

Of course MA has been wrong many times. But I've read that Jim Simon's fund is also often wrong on it's investments, but to get the sizing and positioning right on what works is what brought him these enormous gains.