Martin Armstrong Discussion

[AnonymousCoder]

...
Just to repeat again:
The July PANIC month is a JOKE AGAIN (like the February Panic Month)! How many times do I need to say that? Armstrong's Arrays do NOT work at ALL.

Is anyone even surprised?

Just look how Martin Armstrong makes these arrays up. It is documented here:

https://www.ask-socrates.com/How-To-Use-Forecasting-Arrays#TradingCycle

Bullish and bearish markets have empirical nominal duration that last specific time units (days, weeks, months years):
 - Bullish: 7-11-14-21 time units
 - Bearish: 2-3-5-6-10-12-18 time units


OK, every clock is right twice a day. Your mileage may vary ...

This numerology magic may turn out to be a very crude random number generator at best.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

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[DanB1]

I agree, @Gumbi, @Alex-11, come and show us your live trades using Socrates and show us that it works.
If you don't then please do not bother us anymore with just how great this system is and how wrong we are.

[psp777]

Well, Armstrong has 13.2k followers on Twitter. Maybe those that feel inclined should refute his posts @StrongEconomics

[Alex-11]

Alex, if you wanted to use historical data to measure performance, the Private Blog posts would have been better, as they are posted in real time, unlike the chart which showed only hindsight calls that cannot be verified. If they were made up, no one would have had any way to verify if they were real or if Armstrong was making things up. But actually, Armstrong has shown to change/edit blog posts so even then, it is unreliable. This is the reason why I abandoned the attempt to backrest them manually. Simply put, we have no way of verifying the data itself. Garbage in garbage out is apt here. Using the chart is only blindly taking Armstrong's word for it. None can be used.

So Armstrong is calling for an August high which should occur on the first week on an intraweek or closing basis, apparently. Are any Armstrong proponents trading this call? And if so, how?

The problem with the blog posts is that they are not regular enough. There are still decisions that I have to taken when to buy or sell. That's why I say it's better to judge the system itself.

On the blog post one can only judge if that particular statement turned out to be right or wrong (or something in between). This can be done but I prefer the system verification.

Regarding the charts, yes it is hindsight and if you are extreme sceptical about Armstrong then you will demand hard prove from others and you will not try yourself to prove it. People who are more positive about Armstrong would probably say , oh this is interesting. I will watch this happen on a live system and if it turns out to confirm what was shown on the chart, then it's good to be used.  Or you would look for other charts like this to see how those are doing in terms of profit. But this is not happening here.

I said it before and I can say it again. I don't feel like I have to prove to anybody that Socrates is working. I just want to discuss certain aspects of Socrates.  Has anybody here is this forum shared results of real research?  I mean something like I did in the forum with analyzing that buy /sell signal chart and posting the results (and probably even the raw data).  I haven't seen anything like that from other people. So if I would  invest  e.g. 1 full week of work in researching in something, why should I post this here in the forum if nobody else does it?  I've seen a lot of claims that people have backtested things and posted their conclusion, but I've not seen something like I did. Testing many samples and properly describe the test and eventually even post the raw data.

Also, regarding to a comment that Armstrong's system may work well for a trending market, but doesn't work well for a side-way market,

If a  system produces consistant  profits, then to me it doesn't matter how. There are only very few markets which move sideways for a long time.


***************************
Please read on page 305/306 about the nonsense that is spread about Armstrong

[AnonymousCoder]

...
I've seen a lot of claims that people have backtested things and posted their conclusion, but I've not seen something like I did. Testing many samples and properly describe the test and eventually even post the raw data.
...

I don't know whether I should actually respond to so much stupidity.

There is only one valid conclusion from this: Ask Socrates support to provide historical data!

Other services are doing it.

If not supplied then unsubscribe from Socrates. After supplied then subscribe and check that historical data is actually authentic and sufficient.

Otherwise you are an idiot because:

1) You are deriving data that a convicted criminal

https://pennrecord.com/stories/511497776-federal-judge-coin-collector-s-criminal-record-mentions-will-not-be-stricken-from-ownership-complaint

posted in hindsight without ability to check it and then you claim that you describe it "properly". Outrageous!

2) You are paying Martin Armstrong for your work of testing the bugs of his system

3) You are thinking that someone who has a massive amount of raw data that only very few are able to obtain would take the risk of publishing it just to please you.

Finally I want to make it clear that I am not taking any of Martin Armstrong's work seriously in any way. If I did that then I would discredit myself. I am posting here only to discredit Martin Armstrong and what he produces with the aim to save other honest people some grief and a lot of money.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

[MTL4]

Just look how Martin Armstrong makes these arrays up. It is documented here:

https://www.ask-socrates.com/How-To-Use-Forecasting-Arrays#TradingCycle

Thanks, I had never seen this explanation before but it confirms what I suspected as to how the arrays were generated.  It also shows why it would have been much more helpful to have the actual numbers on the bars rather than just bar heights/colors since the bar heights are obviously relative to what's currently displayed.  Not sure why 2 bullish and 1 bearish equals neutral (yellow) but I digress.

Regarding the charts, yes it is hindsight and if you are extreme sceptical about Armstrong then you will demand hard prove from others and you will not try yourself to prove it. People who are more positive about Armstrong would probably say , oh this is interesting. I will watch this happen on a live system and if it turns out to confirm what was shown on the chart, then it's good to be used.  Or you would look for other charts like this to see how those are doing in terms of profit. But this is not happening here.

I said it before and I can say it again. I don't feel like I have to prove to anybody that Socrates is working. I just want to discuss certain aspects of Socrates.  Has anybody here is this forum shared results of real research?  I mean something like I did in the forum with analyzing that buy /sell signal chart and posting the results (and probably even the raw data).  I haven't seen anything like that from other people. So if I would  invest  e.g. 1 full week of work in researching in something, why should I post this here in the forum if nobody else does it?  I've seen a lot of claims that people have back tested things and posted their conclusion, but I've not seen something like I did. Testing many samples and properly describe the test and eventually even post the raw data.

Alex, hang on a minute.  There's been quite a few very smart people working on verifying Socrates.  I'm happy to post up overlays I did of the Socrates arrays vs actual market performance (over days, weeks, months) but I can tell you I didn't see much worth trading at all and the reversals were ever less helpful when plotted against the market.  I'd say that qualifies as impartial research.  So the issue here is that you're saying the system works and you just want to discuss the details but a large majority of other folks are saying we're not even seeing it work or produce any profits at all (hence my request for real time trades).  Then when those who claim it works are questioned, all we hear is you don't see the big picture or you don't understand how Socrates works.  Wouldn't you want to prove folks wrong if they claimed something was BS and you knew better?  This is not about whether you like MA or if you think he's totally lost it (I'd listen to someone who was crazy but correct any day) this is about if the system really works or if it's just someone making false claims.

[olegrey]

Just look how Martin Armstrong makes these arrays up. It is documented here:

https://www.ask-socrates.com/How-To-Use-Forecasting-Arrays#TradingCycle

Thanks, I had never seen this explanation before but it confirms what I suspected as to how the arrays were generated.  It also shows why it would have been much more helpful to have the actual numbers on the bars rather than just bar heights/colors since the bar heights are obviously relative to what's currently displayed.  Not sure why 2 bullish and 1 bearish equals neutral (yellow) but I digress.

Regarding the charts, yes it is hindsight and if you are extreme sceptical about Armstrong then you will demand hard prove from others and you will not try yourself to prove it. People who are more positive about Armstrong would probably say , oh this is interesting. I will watch this happen on a live system and if it turns out to confirm what was shown on the chart, then it's good to be used.  Or you would look for other charts like this to see how those are doing in terms of profit. But this is not happening here.

I said it before and I can say it again. I don't feel like I have to prove to anybody that Socrates is working. I just want to discuss certain aspects of Socrates.  Has anybody here is this forum shared results of real research?  I mean something like I did in the forum with analyzing that buy /sell signal chart and posting the results (and probably even the raw data).  I haven't seen anything like that from other people. So if I would  invest  e.g. 1 full week of work in researching in something, why should I post this here in the forum if nobody else does it?  I've seen a lot of claims that people have back tested things and posted their conclusion, but I've not seen something like I did. Testing many samples and properly describe the test and eventually even post the raw data.

Alex, hang on a minute.  There's been quite a few very smart people working on verifying Socrates.  I'm happy to post up overlays I did of the Socrates arrays vs actual market performance (over days, weeks, months) but I can tell you I didn't see much worth trading at all and the reversals were ever less helpful when plotted against the market.  I'd say that qualifies as impartial research.  So the issue here is that you're saying the system works and you just want to discuss the details but a large majority of other folks are saying we're not even seeing it work or produce any profits at all (hence my request for real time trades).  Then when those who claim it works are questioned, all we hear is you don't see the big picture or you don't understand how Socrates works.  Wouldn't you want to prove folks wrong if they claimed something was BS and you knew better?  This is not about whether you like MA or if you think he's totally lost it (I'd listen to someone who was crazy but correct any day) this is about if the system really works or if it's just someone making false claims.

Please post your overlays

[MA_talk]

Alex, hang on a minute.  There's been quite a few very smart people working on verifying Socrates.  I'm happy to post up overlays I did of the Socrates arrays vs actual market performance (over days, weeks, months) but I can tell you I didn't see much worth trading at all and the reversals were ever less helpful when plotted against the market.  I'd say that qualifies as impartial research.  So the issue here is that you're saying the system works and you just want to discuss the details but a large majority of other folks are saying we're not even seeing it work or produce any profits at all (hence my request for real time trades).  Then when those who claim it works are questioned, all we hear is you don't see the big picture or you don't understand how Socrates works.  Wouldn't you want to prove folks wrong if they claimed something was BS and you knew better?  This is not about whether you like MA or if you think he's totally lost it (I'd listen to someone who was crazy but correct any day) this is about if the system really works or if it's just someone making false claims.

Please post your overlays

For people who keep saying that arrays do work, how about you address that Feb, May, July of 2019 are supposedly panic cycle months FIRST?

The supporters of Armstrong always dodge the failures of the Socrates without addressing ANYTHING, and then simply pretend that the failures don't exist, and then continue to pretend to discuss the system & methodology AS IF everything is so terrific.  And then always push the burden of proof upon the people who are skeptical.

EXTRAORDINARY claims require extraordinary evidences.  To claim a trading system works like magic, when most of the active mutual fund managers canNOT beat the market, is an extraordinary claim.  The burden of proof lies on the people who make SUCH EXTRAORDINARY claims, NOT vice versa.

And we are asking something very straightforward, to prove the merit of system by live trades, with PRE-DEFINED entry/exit rules.  And the fact is after 308+ pages of forum posts, NOBODY can come even close to show some profit.

In fact, I will even say that one should test the system by allowing only prices executed AT THE CLOSING, and the trades of either buy or sell can be declared 15 minutes earlier before the market close.  If a system will work, it will work under this constraint, because except daily traders, all other Technical Analytic systems go by the daily closing prices.  This constraint doesn't pose much on the TA, but while at the same time, prevents LIARS from making up phantom intra-day profits in volatile markets.

This challenge to supporters have been outstanding for at least 3 months.  And obviously, if it could have been done, it would have been done.  All I hear is just lame excuses.  Well, if you don't want to show it, how about you go away?

HOW ABOUT ALL OF US clicked on the "report to moderator" on the people who are not interested in participating, but instead continue to put out propaganda without any substantiations?

[AnonymousCoder]

...
This challenge to supporters have been outstanding for at least 3 months. And obviously, if it could have been done, it would have been done. All I hear is just lame excuses. Well, if you don't want to show it, how about you go away?

HOW ABOUT ALL OF US clicked on the "report to moderator" on the people who are not interested in participating, but instead continue to put out propaganda without any substantiations?

We need them to make these ridiculous claims so that we can reveal all the inconsistencies in them for all to see.
Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

[MTL4]

Please post your overlays

I don't see any way to attach photos on here, what are folks using for that?
Happy to post them if someone can provide an easy way to do it.

[Alex-11]

you can upload here and post the links
https://imgur.com/


***************************
Please read on page 305/306 about the nonsense that is spread about Armstrong

[unwashed]

...
This is what I was addressing and can not be attributed to the subject. All the sites, news and blogs do it. I stopped visiting Zero Hedge in 2013 for this very reason, sensationalism for Clicks for ads
...
My point is they all do it to grab your attention dishonestly and should be pointed out.

I agree. It seems to be worse than what you describe.

I tried three times to get zerohedge membership with the single purpose of being able to comment on their articles. All attempts failed.

I have the suspicion, that zerohedge sells pre-defined comments as part of their package.

Otherwise I cannot explain how Martin Armstrong's articles on zerohedge get public comments 100% biased exclusively in his favor. If I cannot comment then there is no other conclusion.

Armstrong does not really have genuine ideas and research. It is all re-published at best. Content aggregation at its cheapest level. And I think it is a crime because he sells his crap as being the solution of this problem, claiming the higher ground, for the people looking for answers.

Then he builds this Socrates contraption that he uses to rip people off without having to even write anything.

I really do not have any words for this any more.

Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud

See https://armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog

Yes, I couldn't agree more. I wouldn't doubt that ZH is doing this sort of thing. Back when I was visiting ZH, I remember them deleting comments that raised question about ZH or anything they didn't agree with but I bet they're willing to look the other way for a price. It's more about perception then the validity of the site and MA system, comments are a very useful tool in this regard.   

[olegrey]

The DOW elected the bearish daily reversal at 27068.78 with the Dow closing at 26864.3, a 0.76% difference.  I have bought DOG which is an inverse ETF for the dow. 

[AnonymousCoder]

The DOW elected the bearish daily reversal at 27068.78 with the Dow closing at 26864.3, a 0.76% difference. I have bought DOG which is an inverse ETF for the dow.

Are you holding your short for three days now because you concluded that this should be the trading period?

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

[olegrey]

The DOW elected the bearish daily reversal at 27068.78 with the Dow closing at 26864.3, a 0.76% difference.  I have bought DOG which is an inverse ETF for the dow.  

Are holding your short for three days now because you concluded that this should be the trading period?

Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud

See https://armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog

I am holding according to these rules:

Trading Rules:
Stop loss is set at the nearest opposite reversal, but only a closing basis for the selected timeunit

If elected reversal is less than 1%:
•   Sell on second timeunit closing if true
•   Sell on third timeunit closing if second is false and third is true
•   Sell on third timeunit closing if all three timeunits are false
•   Sell on first timeunit closing if true and the corresponding opening to closing is opposite the elected reversal (bearish for an elected bullish and
        bullish for an elected bearish reversal)

If elected reversal is less more than 1%:
•   If first timeunit is true, sell on second timeunit
•   If first timeunit is false and second is true, check if the first closing is above the reversal for bullish or below for bearish.  If so this is a "successful
        retest" of the reversal.  Sell on third timeunit (second after the "retest")
•   If all three timeunits are false, wait unit the closing is above the election of a reversal, a "successful closing", for the corresponding timeunit, (ex.
        Monthly closing for elected monthly reversals, weekly closing for weekly reversals, daily closing for elected daily closing) Sell two timeunits after
        the "successful closing"

For all elected reversals:
•   If the first timeunit is a doji candle but true, sell
•   If another reversal is elected on or before the "sell timeunit", then the time is reset for the previous elected reversal, add to position and follow the
        rules for the latest elected reversal for all positions.  This signal overpowers all other signals
•   If multiple successive reversals are elected and the closing of the first timeunit of the latest reversal is a doji candle that closes very close to the
        election closing, sell all positions (works for bullish to bullish, bearish to bearish, bullish to bearish, and bearish to bullish)

[olegrey]

I hope the market shows a lot of volatility in the coming weeks. My multi hit price point system generated a buy signal  near the bottom of the second lowest candle of the day today. That last candle did end up giving a lot of drawdown though, more than I had expected, but it bounced nicely. The volume on that low candle was absolutely beautiful. And I missed the whole thing busy at work. Don't want to post too much on that- mods did take down a live trade due to it being unrelated- but the point is that support/resistance based on past price does work.

Olgray, options can generate greater returns, but your leverage may vary. We'll see how it goes. Alex, although the private blog posts do not give frequent updates, the posts are there since I think 2016. So that should provide ample material to work with and thus give a large number of calls to use. But again, I don't know if he changed any of the posts. The chart posted was retrospect so it cannot be used. Armstrong is not exempt from the same criteria as anyone else, so they need to be real time or in advance. If you look at some of my old posts, I'd given numbers in advance with clear criteria- if X hits price Y on the same 5 min candle as A hits on price B, then a reversal trade is generated. I actually did this several weeks in advance with a list of numbers to be used when I was on a trading forum- price actually his some on the same 5 min candle much later on. Armstrong has Reversal numbers where there are other numbers above and below. So his system should be able to do the same thing as far as forecasting price is concerned.

I would like to see forecasts made where the criteria is set in advance, OR live trades with entry and intended exit posted. If an Armstrong proponent does not wish to do so, that is fine. But no other method of proof will be acceptable, so if they wish to prove something, please use that method.

I am testing my theory for now.  If I am correct then I will move on to 2X and 3X ETF's and options

[olegrey]

The DOW elected the bearish daily reversal at 27068.78 with the Dow closing at 26864.3, a 0.76% difference.  I have bought DOG which is an inverse ETF for the dow.  

Are holding your short for three days now because you concluded that this should be the trading period?

Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud

See https://armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog

I am holding according to these rules:

Trading Rules:
Stop loss is set at the nearest opposite reversal, but only a closing basis for the selected timeunit

If elected reversal is less than 1%:
•   Sell on second timeunit closing if true
•   Sell on third timeunit closing if second is false and third is true
•   Sell on third timeunit closing if all three timeunits are false
•   Sell on first timeunit closing if true and the corresponding opening to closing is opposite the elected reversal (bearish for an elected bullish and
        bullish for an elected bearish reversal)

If elected reversal is less more than 1%:
•   If first timeunit is true, sell on second timeunit
•   If first timeunit is false and second is true, check if the first closing is above the reversal for bullish or below for bearish.  If so this is a "successful
        retest" of the reversal.  Sell on third timeunit (second after the "retest")
•   If all three timeunits are false, wait unit the closing is above the election of a reversal, a "successful closing", for the corresponding timeunit, (ex.
        Monthly closing for elected monthly reversals, weekly closing for weekly reversals, daily closing for elected daily closing) Sell two timeunits after
        the "successful closing"

For all elected reversals:
•   If the first timeunit is a doji candle but true, sell
•   If another reversal is elected on or before the "sell timeunit", then the time is reset for the previous elected reversal, add to position and follow the
        rules for the latest elected reversal for all positions.  This signal overpowers all other signals
•   If multiple successive reversals are elected and the closing of the first timeunit of the latest reversal is a doji candle that closes very close to the
        election closing, sell all positions (works for bullish to bullish, bearish to bearish, bullish to bearish, and bearish to bullish)

Here is a link to a spreadsheet with hypothetical trading performance, using the rules above, for the daily DOW reversals provided by Bikefront.  The profit percentages are in the far right column.  I have also started this profit analysis with the reversals provide by Ediface but I haven't finished those yet.  While promising this proves nothing because it was done on historical data, not a live trading environment.  The results are encouraging though, and convinced me to make the jump and get a socrates subscription

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1c6gpYyFzJTeWjP-JZKbpZY2uQLKSDgm3if9ARSsSdDE/edit?usp=sharing

[AnonymousCoder]

...
Here is a link to a spreadsheet with hypothetical trading performance
...

You are going to fail.

I think I can say that because I provided the data in that spreadsheet.

But you are not going to fail because I provided the data. You are going to fail because it is Armstrong's data.

And Armstrong's data is bad because he does not know what he is doing.

Martin Armstrong does not know what he is doing and that is why his trades are losing trades

And because Socrates suggests losing trades, that is why it is on the web making money by getting subscription money out of your pocket. THAT IS THE REAL TRADE AND IT IS A WINNING TRADE

And it is so successful because you cannot prove it is wrong because it does not have any rules. And because it does not have any rules, you needed to make them yourself. And you do that because you think you are smart.

Now after you fail you will blame yourself, trying to improve your rules getting even smarter. This is what this scam is all about.

 - - - - - - HA HA!

I really laugh my head off how after so much intense reporting and in-depth analysis of this phenomenon some people still cannot resist.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

[olegrey]

...
Here is a link to a spreadsheet with hypothetical trading performance
...

You are going to fail.

I think I can say that because I provided the data in that spreadsheet.

But you are not going to fail because of that. You are going to fail because it is Armstrong's data.

And Armstrong's data is bad because he does not know what he is doing.

Martin Armstrong does not know what he is doing and that is why his trades are losing trades

And because Socrates suggests losing trades, that is why it is on the web making money by getting subscription money out of your pocket. THAT IS THE REAL TRADE AND IT IS A WINNING TRADE

I really laugh my head off how after so much intense reporting and in-depth analysis of this phenomenon some people still cannot resist.

Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud

See https://armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog

In depth reporting? Are talking about your laughable 1 time frame analysis.  Or your phatom reversals that were debunked by the reversals being in the dashboard as pointed out by alex.

Why we're you willing to share the data with bikefront, but not with me?

[nattybear]

...
Here is a link to a spreadsheet with hypothetical trading performance
...

You are going to fail.

I think I can say that because I provided the data in that spreadsheet.

But you are not going to fail because of that. You are going to fail because it is Armstrong's data.

And Armstrong's data is bad because he does not know what he is doing.

Martin Armstrong does not know what he is doing and that is why his trades are losing trades

And because Socrates suggests losing trades, that is why it is on the web making money by getting subscription money out of your pocket. THAT IS THE REAL TRADE AND IT IS A WINNING TRADE

I really laugh my head off how after so much intense reporting and in-depth analysis of this phenomenon some people still cannot resist.

Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud

See https://armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog

@AnonymousCoder... You've added a lot of value and done well at exposing the serious and multiple flaws in MA/Socrates.

In order for this to gain more traction and broader recognition then people need to be able to evaluate and come to the same conclusion. As was the case with so many people already on this blog who have studied, attempted, and seen the holes in the system and MA's commentary.

Assisting them in that process is the best way of achieving wider acknowledgement as opposed to a combative angle.