Martin Armstrong Discussion

[CaymanJack]

To call a top/turning point months before it happens is a big call. The DOW could as well just continued going up last week and this week. But for some reasons the market seems to turn. Look at Europe this morning, we haven't seen this for some time.

So whatever happened, Socrates picked up some signal. You can call it sheer coincidence or BS or whatever, I couldn't care less. For me opinions are worthless, facts matter.
I think any serieus investor should always keep an open mind and I'm happy that I closed some positions before the ECM. I might be adding again depending on what happens next, no idea at this point.

Of course MA has been wrong many times. But I've read that Jim Simon's fund is also often wrong on it's investments, but to get the sizing and positioning right on what works is what brought him these enormous gains.

He never called a top months before this, he called it both ways. What about the other turning points where nothing ever happened or all the other opportunities that Socrates completely missed?

You simply got lucky, but how do you trade this so called top? How much of a correction and for how long? Where and when do you back in? Socrates will never give this answer. By the time it does, the market will have already rebounded.

[1715592928]

1715592928

[1715592928]

1715592928

[1715592928]

1715592928

[1715592928]

1715592928

[MTL4]

Oh, and Simons has an enormous edge in that he wins more often than he loses.

It's a bit nit picky but the key to Simons system (or any system for that matter) is not that he wins more than he loses but that his net win/loss amounts are positive (ie he makes lots of money doing it).  I know it's counter intuitive but I looked at a few trading systems that had losing averages (ie lost alot more times than they won percentage-wise) but that actually made money because the many small losses were significantly less than the few huge wins that were generated (vice versa and obviously your account blows up pretty quickly).

[AnonymousCoder]

To call a top/turning point months before it happens is a big call. The DOW could as well just continued going up last week and this week. But for some reasons the market seems to turn. Look at Europe this morning, we haven't seen this for some time.

So whatever happened, Socrates picked up some signal. You can call it sheer coincidence or BS or whatever, I couldn't care less. For me opinions are worthless, facts matter ...

So let's call a spade a spade and I will tell you that you are dead wrong, and if you continue with this approach, then this will bite you in the future. Hopefully, you can avoid that.

I don't have to elaborate on the fact that Martin Armstrong called it both ways which makes the call that you pick in hindsight useless.

I don't have to elaborate on the fact that it is not Socrates the software that made these calls but Martin Armstrong's ECM that he keeps adjusting to the events in hindsight.

I am focusing on the behavior where you call statistics worthless opinions while you identify a fact by cherry-picking in hindsight a single observation of your own that you like, and rate that single observation higher than the statistics. You obviously even think that you are less biased than the majority in this forum.

You act like a fool, and Martin Armstrong can have his business only because of people like you. You even bought a Socrates subscription a few days ago to support him.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog

[Snillegutt]

I can clearly see that MA is a fraud, in many different ways, but I am also a little bit impressed of the combination of 18.01 and what wee see after that.

He didnt call it on the day of the event, but if the market continues to move downwards and go far down, he had a hell of a luck calling it on the 18.01.2020.

If it stays above the lows of the last ten years or so, also this was a fraud, BUT if the market tanks below the lows of lets say the last 10 years or even including 2007-2009, its hard to argue that 18.01 was just a coincidence.

Anybody knows when he first published the ECM-date of 18.01?

I will let the next weeks and months inform me if the last piece of "confidence" I have in MA is gone forever or if there can be something worth listening to.

Of course it would be hard to find any sense among all his nonsense.

Maybe make a computer predicting MAs bullshit from his "luck"?

[DanB1]

I can clearly see that MA is a fraud, in many different ways, but I am also a little bit impressed of the combination of 18.01 and what wee see after that.

I agree but you're not allowed to say that here.

I can see the nonsense MA has published in the last few years, but so far he is correct on this one, to the exact date.  
Foolish or not, so far my 15USD Socrates subscription has prevented me from losing money.
Although I still think we will go up again in the near future I will keep a close eye on his blog.

Will he be right again in the future? maybe he will, maybe he won't but so far he nailed this one.

[AnonymousCoder]

This ECM turning point thing is a non-event. Total bullshit as always. Nobody cares about it. You guys are deluded. Buying an illusion. I laugh my head off when I see people discussing it.

The market sold off a little because of the virus. The virus is not even aligned with what Martin Armstrong's fear mongering is about - climate, recession, where traditionally EPIDEMICS were more likely (but not a small flu like thing as this one). So here we are again, total bullshit and some people are trying to read the tea leaves from these gyrations caused by random events.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.

See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog

[dibley8899]

Well DanB1 you take the biscuit. If you have bothered to read what is on here you wouldn't have wasted your 15$ lol but you have probably just paid for Marty's next chick in Thailand.

Anyway while you are in a great mood with his nailing the 18/1 I should remind you that he has so far managed to get the largest asset in the world by a country mile wrong by another country mile in USA Bonds and interest rates. He had rates at 5% by now I think lol and here we are down at 1.6%,  just a small amount away lol.

How can this be you ask? because it doesn't work and never has lol.

Dan please join gumbi and alex.  Phew Marty keeps signing up as new people, he must be going through some email addresses lol.



So,  if its going down but if it doesn't go down then its going to go up but if it goes down then up then down again that means its going to go down unless it goes up again in which case its going up if its doesnt go down.    Thanks Marty.......


 

[trulycoined]

... I am also a little bit impressed of the combination of 18.01 and what wee see after that... but if the market continues to move downwards and go far down, he had a hell of a luck calling it on the 18.01.2020.

Anybody knows when he first published the ECM-date of 18.01?...

The problem is, he (or his "machine") never did call the market on this - MA explained the ECM was predicting an economic downturn, and in his own words, that had nothing to do with individual markets. Back in 2015, he explained of the run up to 2020.05:

"We are looking at an economic crash – not a market crash. As government implodes with the Pension Crisis, capital shifts from public assets to private. This is a process that is not instantaneous, it is an ongoing event that will worsen now into 2020 and it will not end until this Private Wave peaks in 2032."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/understanding-cycles/2015-75-was-just-the-beginning/


Not sure what did worsen up to 2020.05, unless it has been kept well hidden from everyone? Most major asset classes, jobs growth, wage growth, PMI, etc in the West has been strong through that period. There was no major economic or financial disasters, nor even a recession.

In other blog posts in recent years and even months, MA explained the period from 2020-2024 would be inflationary:

"But generally, the next wave of the ECM business cycle should be an inflationary one."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/ecm-armstrongeconomics101/the-next-cycle-in-the-ecm-beginning-january-2020/

"The killing of Soleimani... is the precursor to the turn in the ECM which is due January 18, 2020. This should contribute to the inflationary cycle ahead."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/war/iran-the-cycle-of-war/

"This next wave should be inflationary."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/ecm-armstrongeconomics101/the-great-alignment-2020/


He repeated the same thing at the 2018 WEC, where MA explained commodities would see a bull run through the specific time frame of 2020-2024, therefore go long on CA/AU stock markets and CAD/AUD, which are the most sensitive major (Western) markets to the commodity cycle. Divest out of USD and the Dow.


So if you think 2020.05 marks a major downturn in the global economy and therefore major markets like the Dow, then you have tacitly confirmed the core criticism of MA:

His ECM is totally open to interpretation - quite likely because it is flawed or a hoax - and for that reason, it is impossible to trade from.

Case in point: despite MA continually explaining 2020-2024 would be inflationary, you are claiming that your interpretation is that it will be deflationary. That is not what MA has ever written or spoken about should you review his blog (see examples above - more exist over the years), or if you have ever attended one of his WECs (I have, in 2018).

[trc4949]

BREAKING NEWS

on the WEEKLY level of Socrates, it is saying for sp500   "possible SERIOUS CRASH"   !!!!!

[Traxo]

IMO he is only a follower of the leading technical analysis theories.

Hey, thanks for your input. 
I had similar thoughts recently: 

Remember that he claims his computer processes inputs on a multi-dimensional plane that is beyond human capability, and at the same time he posts 2D charts for you to read them to back up his predictions. 

But I've not went so far to compare his charts and predictions with leading analysts.

[unwashed]

BTFD 

[s29]

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/eastern_europe/ukraine-the-obama-biden-grip-on-corruption-that-was-a-silent-counter-revolution/

QUESTION: Hi Mr Armstrong,
I so much appreciate your lifetime of work and dedication to the Truth. I really appreciate so much your history lessons and deep connected objective lessons into the cumulative interconnecting web of this world we live in.

I ask a large favor .

(...)

You Americans (not you Mr. Armstrong, as you are a true Hero and a man of absolute moral fibre and deep honor !!) , but most Americans we see as naive, nascent but worse they are cowards .

Thank you Mr. Armstrong for being the rarest man of honor

Marty Fanmail-alert
Did he again use the Socrates fanmail generator?

[s29]

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/disease/coronavirus-the-ecm/

Many have asked that since this Coronavirus appears to have caught everyone’s attention with the turn in the ECM on January 18th, 2020, the questions have poured in asking if this was a major event given our model had been projecting a rise in disease would begin in 2020 coinciding with the new Solar Cycle which should be the lowest in probably 200 years+ meaning colder weather. There is certainly an interesting correlation that we should not ignore.

Here Armstrong of course tries to correlate the Coronavirus with his ECM turning point.

The problem is: the ECM model should work from a Business Cycle perspective, what Armstrong stated himself countless times. And the ECM 2020 turning point should be a low.

Now the Coronavirus does exactly the opposite: it slows consumption and production, at least in the shorter term. How genius is his ECM 2020 turning point low in the Business Cycle if the Coronavirus slows the Business Cycle?!?

[Traxo]

And the ECM 2020 turning point should be a low.

Not sure if he said that, but what does it even mean? 
That also can't even be wrong because one man's low is another man's high.

[s29]

And the ECM 2020 turning point should be a low.

Not sure if he said that, but what does it even mean?  
That also can't even be wrong because one man's low is another man's high.

Yes, he said that the ECM 2020 turning point is a low. How many times didn't he say the economy would turn down into the 2020 ECM Business Cycle low?
Besides, on the graphical ECM chart it's also stated as a low.

[AnonymousCoder]

According to our research discovering The Myth of the Martin Armstrong Global Cooling Prediction we are at least 12 years early with the onset of any diseases that would align with his cycle that would peak in 2032. Meanwhile, he has shifted the goal posts after he discovered that real scientists predicted global cooling at an earlier date than he did, and he plagiarized these research results.

At the same time we can say that again it is all hindsight because he did not during the last few years predict any event such as this flu event. So it is all bullshit once again.

I wonder how many people he can impress with this - who really wants to know, and who can really benefit from his ramblings in any way? Honestly, what is the benefit?


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.

See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog

[Snillegutt]

"His ECM is totally open to interpretation - quite likely because it is flawed or a hoax - and for that reason, it is impossible to trade from."

Ok, I misinterpreted it, but anyway, I accept, he is a fraud.

Especially what I read about backchecking told me so.

There should be sufficient material for a fraud-case against him.

But he is just a small-time scammer, so the government dont care. They already fucked him 4015 times(11 yearsx365).

They will let him live out the rest of his fraudulent, narcissistic life writing grateful emails to himself:-)

What a pathetic fool

[hv_]

And the ECM 2020 turning point should be a low.

Not sure if he said that, but what does it even mean? 
That also can't even be wrong because one man's low is another man's high.

Haha, yes, that's a good one. Zero sum games are all over the world

[DanB1]

What a pathetic fool

Yep. A pathetic fool. But so far with a great call, which I am enyoing:)

[dibley8899]

What a pathetic fool

Yep. A pathetic fool. But so far with a great call, which I am enyoing:)

Well Hello Marty ........How is Florida this time of year?