Swedish ASIC miner company kncminer.com

[FeedbackLoop]

So you have the mutually exclusive options [1][2]:


- you get stuck with a >10K USD, 3TH 6 month contract, (starting at Q3?) with machines that you funded that are not what you ordered or [1][2][3]

- you wait an indeterminate time for something to ship that apparently was not where the money went to [3]

- you refund after having your money stalled there for months instead of having went with other miners


  
[1]

as part of Plan B, for all Neptune customers, we will be offering a free conversion to a hosted hashing package

quoted from their announcement, emphasis mine.

[2]
http://www.coindesk.com/kncminer-offers-plan-b-case-neptune-miner-delivery-delay/

[3]

Wall Street Jornal piece shows that KnC made 15mil profit on 75 mil in sales last year.
http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2014/02/06/cold-virtual-cash-a-bitcoin-mining-center-for-sweden/
These are strange figures because they collected 28-34 mil on preorders, but hardly expensed anything yet on Neptune. If it is so, then they were $20 mil "in the hole' before collecting Neptune preorders. Alternatively, they were probably already in the black with Jupiters and then used at least half of Neptune money to make a prepayment or payment on the datacenter and/or unreleased Jupiters.

I guess the golden question is really: is [3] really like that? Having extra options is great and nice even if the options are not good but using pre-order money to build something else and then giving those options...

Batch 1 and 2 went last year right?

75M - (1.2K*10K + 1.2K*13K) = 47.4M which is indeed below the profit level of 60M, therefore Neptune money is indeed funding the farm? Input?

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[soy]

Well, Russians will be opting for the hosting plan.

http://techcrunch.com/2014/02/07/russia-bans-bitcoin/?utm_campaign=fb&ncid=fb

Is this why BTC/USD is falling again?

I've got buy orders at $700, $675, $650 and a biggie at $601

Let the drop continue!!!

My opinion is that the banks showed they can influence bitcoin with the approach to the Senate hearings, the rise then fall while stability would have improved bitcoin status.

Holidays are over and we have bills.  The banks have the stock market low so anybody selling mutual funds to pay bills and avoid interest on credit cards a) will get less, b) will put cheap mutual funds on the market.  Same with bitcoin, they drive it down now.  If one had cashed in 1.5btc on the 1st of Feb to pay bills it would have fetched $1228 before fees but now it would fetch $1113 before fees.

[soy]

I wonder if KnC would consider sending a refund to a MtGox account, or splitting a refund partly to a MtGox account and partly to a US bank account.

KNC refunds only in $, directly to your bank account, they don't refund in BTC.

MtGox takes fiat don't they?  When Dwolla was functional you'd give Dwolla $'s and send those $'s off to MtGox where MtGox would then show you have dollars.  One would then spend the dollars on bitcoins.  So, MtGox a) will store dollars, allowing them to be parked there, and b) will store bitcoins in a wallet there in Japan, and c) will allow you to trade.  So, why not have part of the dollars refund sent to MtGox and some to a US Bank?

So there's a minor problem due to the bitinstant guy being convicted of a crime and ID reverification is necessary if one sent any dollars say Walmart->zipzap->bitinstant->MtGox.

Just because we in the US have difficulty sending dollars to MtGox there's no reason KnC can't send dollars to MtGox if it wished.

On a opening page of the JFK book Profiles in Courage, or perhaps it was one of the two major biographys of the president in office (Schlesinger's or Manchester's), there's a quote by a Greek that went something like:

Observing your laws we fell.  or perhaps it was Observing your laws we lie.

[The Avenger]

They can't offer customers only 6 months of 3TH because customers haven't paid for this. It's simple. They will either offer lifetime virtual 3TH or an actual product. The question is if they will force either virtual hashing or wait for product. That would be extremely sick! But i think they won't force it. The best way is to just offer virtual hashing until they ship the product and then they remain with the hashing. It's a win win for all. More win would be if they don't start the farm at least until half June, but i don't expect that to happen at this point.

KNC don't give a shit about a win-win for all. Or they'd be shipping upgrade boards, Jupiters and sticking to their 5% pledge. Not building a 18000+ Jupiter datacentre for themselves with customers money. How many times have I said they have and show contempt for their customers? This is just another instance.

Believe me, they DO give a shit about a win-win for them though.

If coindesk got their facts straight on the three options, which shouldn't be that hard, then it's clear it a *choice* of 3 options. Not a mix and match, but a plain choice between 3 different options.

Option 3. CONVERT to 3TH of cloud for 6 months

That does not mean you get 3TH of hashing for 6 months, then your Neptune sometime in 2015.

It seem to spell out either you wait out the delays. Or accept 3TH of cloud. That seems pretty clear.

You are deluded if you think knc are some amazing company who will give you free hashing for life. Or free cloud hashing for 6 months and then ship you a product. It's one or the other. These are some ruthless mofo's... don't try to mess with the

Swedish bitcoin mafia.

[vesperwillow]

Coindesk is usually more optimistic than realistic.

[Biodom]

So you have the mutually exclusive options [1][2]:


- you get stuck with a >10K USD, 3TH 6 month contract, (starting at Q3?) with machines that you funded that are not what you ordered or [1][2][3]

- you wait an indeterminate time for something to ship that apparently was not where the money went to [3]

- you refund after having your money stalled there for months instead of having went with other miners


  
[1]

as part of Plan B, for all Neptune customers, we will be offering a free conversion to a hosted hashing package

quoted from their announcement, emphasis mine.

[2]
http://www.coindesk.com/kncminer-offers-plan-b-case-neptune-miner-delivery-delay/

[3]

Wall Street Jornal piece shows that KnC made 15mil profit on 75 mil in sales last year.
http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2014/02/06/cold-virtual-cash-a-bitcoin-mining-center-for-sweden/
These are strange figures because they collected 28-34 mil on preorders, but hardly expensed anything yet on Neptune. If it is so, then they were $20 mil "in the hole' before collecting Neptune preorders. Alternatively, they were probably already in the black with Jupiters and then used at least half of Neptune money to make a prepayment or payment on the datacenter and/or unreleased Jupiters.

I guess the golden question is really: is [3] really like that? Having extra options is great and nice even if the options are not good but using pre-order money to build something else and then giving those options...

Batch 1 and 2 went last year right?

75M - (1.2K*10K + 1.2K*13K) = 47.4M which is indeed below the profit level of 60M, therefore Neptune money is indeed funding the farm? Input?

Is Neptune money funding the farm? No doubt for me, but KnC Cole states otherwise. Impossible to find out unless you sue and go through discovery. I don't intend to do that. In fact, it all depends when they can give us 3Th/Neptune order-if in early April, I would say that it is very reasonable. If it is on July 1, then it is a very crappy deal indeed and it is not worth it. I think that they should formulate the plan very soon.

[soy]

They can't offer customers only 6 months of 3TH because customers haven't paid for this. It's simple. They will either offer lifetime virtual 3TH or an actual product. The question is if they will force either virtual hashing or wait for product. That would be extremely sick! But i think they won't force it. The best way is to just offer virtual hashing until they ship the product and then they remain with the hashing. It's a win win for all. More win would be if they don't start the farm at least until half June, but i don't expect that to happen at this point.

KNC don't give a shit about a win-win for all. Or they'd be shipping upgrade boards, Jupiters and sticking to their 5% pledge. Not building a 18000+ Jupiter datacentre for themselves with customers money. How many times have I said they have and show contempt for their customers? This is just another instance.

Believe me, they DO give a shit about a win-win for them though.

If coindesk got their facts straight on the three options, which shouldn't be that hard, then it's clear it a *choice* of 3 options. Not a mix and match, but a plain choice between 3 different options.

Option 3. CONVERT to 3TH of cloud for 6 months

That does not mean you get 3TH of hashing for 6 months, then your Neptune sometime in 2015.

It seem to spell out either you wait out the delays. Or accept 3TH of cloud. That seems pretty clear.

You are deluded if you think knc are some amazing company who will give you free hashing for life. Or free cloud hashing for 6 months and then ship you a product. It's one or the other. These are some ruthless mofo's... don't try to mess with the

Swedish bitcoin mafia.

There's always the chance they for all intents and purposes KNOW they'll have the Neptune very early, earlier than their most optimistic projections and are posing the Plan B to mislead non-Neptune pre-order owners and in turn slow network hashrate growth.

[NetTime]

If that's the case then fuck their hosted 3TH plan B bullshit.  If the neptune delivery slips I am getting a refund and buying BTC.

[Biodom]

I looked at all hosting contracts-they are all BS and don't make any sense IF bitcoin is stable or slightly declining in value.
Same goes for mining in general. Apart from supporting the network, mining does not make economic sense, unless bitcoin is increasing in value.
However, in the last 2.5 months bitcoin went from $1100 to $700 on bitstamp while diffuculty had increased more than fivefold.
A few more months of this dichotomy and nobody would pay to buy a mining rig.
As Guo of Avalon fame had indicated: you have to have the computational power roughly equal to your bitcoin holdings.
In other words, if you own 20-100 bitcoins, you should currently have 1-5X10-6Xtotal network power(~20000th)=0.02-0.1Th=20-100Gh
In other words, much, much less than Jupiter or Neptune.
This is, of course, a minimal requirement, but there is no point to enrich someone and get more if you got no ROI

[Searing]

I see more punting Neptunes back for refunds then virtual mining

With the new hosting facility punting no longer hurts them...as far as mitigating refunds Plan B, for them, is Genius..

yes all refunds mean to them now is a 20mm unit in the hashing farm rather then having to stick a 28mm unit in and hash for that 'dang' customer for a bit till they
either replace the 28mm or run it long after it is profitable for us folks who have to pay cooling and elec and or hosting fees for such

brillant.....i must admit

 a knc win either way

Searing

[Searing]

Can anyone show a realistic projection where the Neptune makes back the initial BTC in 6 months with a delivery past April?

the only way i see it is IF they offer the 6 month of virutal hosting on the neptune for FREE for those 6 months (and of course would have to be up front about what the next 6 months at cost would be before hand) and if BTC goes above 1500 usd a coin

and the above i just stated actually looks more like just getting ROI as a profit

you got to assume the same time they are virtually hosting your units they are SELLING CLOUD HOSTING

that is what screws up the whole equation in my book

can't even get the equip your due ..ie i'd just like to host 1 month or until you ship my unit

sounds like  wait for your unit or do the 6 month contract for free kinda thing to me

not even a fall back on selling the equip as a bail after you start hashing from the above

again you have options sure...but seems they'd prefer you to virtual hash for 6 months and keep the Neptunes in hand and they can then double dip

serve us and expand into cloud hashing ...but man looks like my neptune would get run over by a steam roller whatever version virtual or physical in such a plan

my 2c worth (again i know zip)

Searing

[FoolPartedWithMoney]

Can anyone show a realistic projection where the Neptune makes back the initial BTC in 6 months with a delivery past April?

the only way i see it is IF they offer the 6 month of virutal hosting on the neptune for FREE for those 6 months (and of course would have to be up front about what the next 6 months at cost would be before hand) and if BTC goes above 1500 usd a coin

and the above i just stated actually looks more like just getting ROI as a profit

you got to assume the same time they are virtually hosting your units they are SELLING CLOUD HOSTING

that is what screws up the whole equation in my book

can't even get the equip your due ..ie i'd just like to host 1 month or until you ship my unit

sounds like  wait for your unit or do the 6 month contract for free kinda thing to me

not even a fall back on selling the equip as a bail after you start hashing from the above

again you have options sure...but seems they'd prefer you to virtual hash for 6 months and keep the Neptunes in hand and they can then double dip

serve us and expand into cloud hashing ...but man looks like my neptune would get run over by a steam roller whatever version virtual or physical in such a plan

my 2c worth (again i know zip)

Searing

Aw, cut the bullshit. Just start with a new name and don't fuck up like you did with Bitcoin_UK. "searing" was a pretty impressive personality you built though, i'll give you that.

[bkminer]

* They maintained for the duration of the NPS window, that no competitors were shipping hashrate.

Just before the infamous newsletter I asked them about upgrade modules because obviously competitors were shipping, this was the reply:

From KNC:
"We are aware that some our competitors have started shipping. We will be releasing new products for our previous customers very shortly.
A newsletter will be released in the coming week."

Kind of goes against the maintaining that no competitors were shipping.....

[Phoenix1969]

If the plan is to not refund...  which is what they want....
I'd choose the Plan B option if it was sooner, than later...  I'm wondering now if the 20nm will be before Q4 with Sam's comments on Apple's 20nm.... but with that said...   I hope the shake & bake hosting facility can be built quickly, or they can use their current facility until it's ready... seems scary. So...  What we are going to need from KNC to  avoid a total refunding rush(and I think they know this)... is an attractive offer on the hosting... soon.
But I'm also curious about future business...  this is the end of buying machines from KNC?

edit:   I also wonder if the "delivery" of said Hosted hashing power will follow the format laid out on actual Neptune delivery...?
         That could pad a bit of time...   and what about their current facility in Stockholm.... can it be used to pad the transition also?
         with a minimum of 3.6 peta-hash per batch.... ugh.  megawattage.  This will be interesting.

[xstr8guy]

I just see no upside to "Plan B".  I honestly believe that we'll never see KNC's 20nm ever.

I never thought I would say this but come Monday morning, I'm asking for a refund.  I see no upside to this especially when BTC is quite a bit lower than when I paid for my cust. appreciation batch Neptune.

I've made fun of "buy & hodlers" for many months.  But I think I'll take my 10k and B&H BTC with it instead.

KNC can suck it!

[jelin1984]

knc will do all the best for us i think

the problem is the 20nm is very unique  so maybe the knc factory can not make it in time

[Searing]

knc will do all the best for us i think

the problem is the 20nm is very unique  so maybe the knc factory can not make it in time

likely true....even if they are trying to be 'legit' on all this...if i can't get the miner virtual or otherwise before april 1st i'll likely refund...I see 40% plus difficulty rises thru the next 6-8wks...so it just won't cut it...virtual miner or physical miner at 3Th at the price ...especially if they are gonna also make the worlds 'biggest hashing farm" as they state

really have to pull out my ear plugs and suck it up ...the "fat lady is singing' it seems

will hold out a bit longer...if i get a refund now you just know they will release virtual miners march 15th or some such with my luck

it should become pretty obvious soon if they are on time or late or more then late...add  difficulty increases etc...should be plain as mud what to do in say 3-4wks

as long as i can get a refund up to shipping of the "actual product" (hmmmm wonder how that works for virtual if you don't want it)

anyway fence sit some more (good to have goals)

Searing

[Paladin69]

Extra "Plan B" hashrate for customers won't mean much if they wait until after Q2 to give it to us.

Now if they give it to us the moment the mega center is complete, then KnC is officially the best company out there hands down.

Hopefully it is turned on in the order the various batches were sold.

[matthewh3]

Extra "Plan B" hashrate for customers won't mean much if they wait until after Q2 to give it to us.

Now if they give it to us the moment the mega center is complete, then KnC is officially the best company out there hands down.

Hopefully it is turned on in the order the various batches were sold.

Unless they have fabbed out the new 28nm chips already.  Then there's no chance of giving us the hashrate by mid-April.  Which is when it needs to come online to ROI in bitcoin at current average difficulty growth.  Also, I wonder if they'll be using a new IC design for these new 28nm chips.  If so and it's more efficient than the old design.  Then why don't they offer us to take delivery of the equivalent hashrate with the new 28nm chips.  Instead of waiting for the 20nm chips.  Just ship us the racks that they'll be hosting I say.  If they design new more efficient 28nm chips and boards.

[Biffa]

Maybe they should just do a die shrink of what they have now, stick two of them on a daughter board, 4 daughter boards in a the same case they use now, water cool it and call it Sol (cos its gonna be HOT).

That should be a quick turnaround in time for Q1 and net them close to 2 TH per box.

I'd hazard something like this is whats going to be their new hosted 28nm miner. Without the die shrink but with further tweaks to the design they should get to 1TH per box easily, especially in a properly designed datacenter.