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Question: When will bitcoin reach the top of this bull market (i.e. when will it moon)?
Topped at $13,880 in June - 10 (6.8%)
H2 2019 - 15 (10.1%)
H1 2020 - 29 (19.6%)
H2 2020 - 26 (17.6%)
H1 2021 - 12 (8.1%)
H2 2021 - 28 (18.9%)
H1 2022 - 6 (4.1%)
H2 2022 - 4 (2.7%)
H1 2023 - 0 (0%)
H2 2023 - 3 (2%)
2024 or Later - 15 (10.1%)
Total Voters: 148

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21289555 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (102 posts by 19 users deleted.)
Wekkel
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January 23, 2018, 01:28:43 PM

This fits the format of late 2013 / 2014 better than early 2013. early 2013 was this immediate 80% flashcrash that rebounded on huge volume. late 2013 / 2014 was a slow jagged grind down on lower volumes, which is what is happening here. Im not saying it's going to happen but in no way can you compare this chart to the early 2013 chart.

https://i.imgur.com/A5VQPrM.png
early 2013 which looks nothing like the current chart

It seems the 2013 example is a bit different: the price ran up 10x in about 2 months; the aftermath was brutal and prolonged.
In the matter at hand, the run up was much more gradual; I do not have the time to fully reflect on the comparison of the 2013 aftermath and my expectations for the current 'aftermath', but it almost seems as if the 'aftermath' already took place. Perhaps a short trip to $7,500 to satisfy the perma bears but the damage visible on the 3d chart is minimal compared to the 2013 example.

I remain with my original thoughts: in order to have a post-bubble period one should first have a bubble. Wake me up at $50k  Grin
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micgoossens
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BTFD, on to 15K a coin !!!!


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January 23, 2018, 01:41:26 PM

This fits the format of late 2013 / 2014 better than early 2013. early 2013 was this immediate 80% flashcrash that rebounded on huge volume. late 2013 / 2014 was a slow jagged grind down on lower volumes, which is what is happening here. Im not saying it's going to happen but in no way can you compare this chart to the early 2013 chart.

https://i.imgur.com/A5VQPrM.png
early 2013 which looks nothing like the current chart

It seems the 2013 example is a bit different: the price ran up 10x in about 2 months; the aftermath was brutal and prolonged.
In the matter at hand, the run up was much more gradual; I do not have the time to fully reflect on the comparison of the 2013 aftermath and my expectations for the current 'aftermath', but it almost seems as if the 'aftermath' already took place. Perhaps a short trip to $7,500 to satisfy the perma bears but the damage visible on the 3d chart is minimal compared to the 2013 example.

I remain with my original thoughts: in order to have a post-bubble period one should first have a bubble. Wake me up at $50k  Grin
.

And then after you wake me up @ 77k Grin
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January 23, 2018, 01:49:01 PM

If you weren't inclined to sell at $19k, then you shouldn't be inclined to sell now.

Just buy more at intervals on the way down. You'll eventually be glad you did.

Or you can wait for a trend reversal, but you may be waiting a long time, and then when it turns you'll just be chasing it back up.

Who here doubts that Bitcoin will be at $50k by 2020? I don't.

Agreed.

If you weren't lucky/smart enough to call the top, It is just dumb to sell now. Let's buy even more. It is on %50 discount!
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January 23, 2018, 01:50:35 PM

Ok I sold some. My sacrifice to the sharks. Price will go up now. I have excellent record for selling the bottom.
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January 23, 2018, 01:55:39 PM

Ok I sold some. My sacrifice to the sharks. Price will go up now. I have excellent record for selling the bottom.

Many Thanks!
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January 23, 2018, 02:06:00 PM

Ok I sold some. My sacrifice to the sharks. Price will go up now. I have excellent record for selling the bottom.

COME ON DUDE

you clearly did not sell enough...

SELL MOAR!!!!!!
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January 23, 2018, 02:22:00 PM

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January 23, 2018, 02:22:27 PM

Swarthy Hebrews of questionable fragrance rapidly glanced at the moving charts; their rat-like appendages grasped at the air as if looking for something to steal.  Such creatures of ill-repute were undeniably interested in only one thing, the sound of the clanging of shekels in their demonic coffers.
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January 23, 2018, 02:42:12 PM

Quote
For those playing along at home, you'll no doubt note that (should my understanding be correct), BW consumption scales at O(n^2).
I'm sure it will improve when the routing invention breakthrough occurs.
Of course - the clueless developers! D'oh, what an unforgivable oversight! The system they implemented is doomed. They chose the SAN (Spam All Network) algorithm for both route discovery and node state update. They slept during their networking lessons, or was it calculus? So they failed to notice that bandwidth grows quadratically with the number of nodes. This way, it's almost as bad as if one increased the block size. But who would ever think of that?
Hyperbole duly noted. Be that as it may, do you have any evidence that suggests that my understanding is incorrect?

Honestly, I don't know which solution has eventually been adopted in this first version of the LN, but already in 2016 the proposed method was significantly better than the naive SAN technique you hint at.

https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@emabfuri/bitfury-bitcoin-routing-lightning-network-solution

Here's a relevant excerpt.
Quote
Using a fog of war like design, the collected information by the routing algorithm “includes channels within a low hop-distance and paths to randomly selected nodes further away… As a result, a node will have a well-illuminated map of its local neighborhood within the network, with random patches of visibility further away enabled by the selection of beacon nodes.”

So, it's not an initially low TTL that gets conservatively increased as I had wildly imagined, but not so far off either: closer nodes are exhaustively enumerated, while a small set of distant nodes is selected pseudorandomly.

There is a more detailed pdf paper floating around. If you study it, a summary will be well received. I don't have the time or energy right now. If I get either or both, I'd rather actually test how LN works for me, with my own node.

http://bitfury.com/content/5-white-papers-research/whitepaper_flare_an_approach_to_routing_in_lightning_network_7_7_2016.pdf

Inb4 Fyookball - not to mean you would stoop that low, but just in case ;-)
https://medium.com/@jonaldfyookball/mathematical-proof-that-the-lightning-network-cannot-be-a-decentralized-bitcoin-scaling-solution-1b8147650800
It's mostly BS with truth mixed in  - the most dangerous form of BS.
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January 23, 2018, 02:48:10 PM

I'll try the homespun solution, install docker and all.
I'd be interested in your Internet bandwidth consumption, should you be wiling to share.
I will post some data, but don't hold your breath. I'll need some free time to install the thing - starting with Docker - and some more to figure out how to measure LN's bandwitdh tax unbundled from bitcoind's base requirements. Got any suggestions?

I dunno.... filter a wireshark dump of all port 8333 traffic? Wild speculation. I don't know how LN comms are routed within the host networking layer.

I was hoping not to have to install special instrumentation like wireshark. Well, when I get to that I'll do what I have to.
BTW, 8333 is for bitcoind. LN uses a different port (can't recall right now).
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January 23, 2018, 03:05:48 PM

Gotta love this guy's comment on LN:

Quote
wont central parties providing liquidity ( in return for a small fee) be able to solve this hopping problem , ie. say 1 million people open channel to A, and A opens channels to 1000 other

In other words....an exact replica of the banks that already exist? LOL.
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January 23, 2018, 03:10:01 PM

Quote
For those playing along at home, you'll no doubt note that (should my understanding be correct), BW consumption scales at O(n^2).
I'm sure it will improve when the routing invention breakthrough occurs.
Of course - the clueless developers! D'oh, what an unforgivable oversight! The system they implemented is doomed. They chose the SAN (Spam All Network) algorithm for both route discovery and node state update. They slept during their networking lessons, or was it calculus? So they failed to notice that bandwidth grows quadratically with the number of nodes. This way, it's almost as bad as if one increased the block size. But who would ever think of that?
Hyperbole duly noted. Be that as it may, do you have any evidence that suggests that my understanding is incorrect?

Honestly, I don't know which solution has eventually been adopted in this first version of the LN, but already in 2016 the proposed method was significantly better than the naive SAN technique you hint at.

https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@emabfuri/bitfury-bitcoin-routing-lightning-network-solution

Here's a relevant excerpt.
Quote
Using a fog of war like design, the collected information by the routing algorithm “includes channels within a low hop-distance and paths to randomly selected nodes further away… As a result, a node will have a well-illuminated map of its local neighborhood within the network, with random patches of visibility further away enabled by the selection of beacon nodes.”

So, it's not an initially low TTL that gets conservatively increased as I had wildly imagined, but not so far off either: closer nodes are exhaustively enumerated, while a small set of distant nodes is selected pseudorandomly.

There is a more detailed pdf paper floating around. If you study it, a summary will be well received. I don't have the time or energy right now. If I get either or both, I'd rather actually test how LN works for me, with my own node.

http://bitfury.com/content/5-white-papers-research/whitepaper_flare_an_approach_to_routing_in_lightning_network_7_7_2016.pdf

Inb4 Fyookball - not to mean you would stoop that low, but just in case ;-)
https://medium.com/@jonaldfyookball/mathematical-proof-that-the-lightning-network-cannot-be-a-decentralized-bitcoin-scaling-solution-1b8147650800
It's mostly BS with truth mixed in  - the most dangerous form of BS.


conclusion = bigger blocks are life!!  Roll Eyes  where did you find this guy? lol  Grin Cheesy Kiss
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January 23, 2018, 03:11:14 PM

One of those is a lie

I'm only paranoid because everyone is trying to steal my cocaine.



Oh I hit that shit at least once a week these days, last time was 5g between me & my gf on Sunday Grin

I’ve dumped loads of free BCH for coke over the last few months Cheesy
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January 23, 2018, 03:17:50 PM

If there was ever any doubt that CSW is Fake Satoshi, a con man, and a liar:

https://twitter.com/ProfFaustus/status/955425740820008960

Just look at the way he responds in discourse. The real Satoshi never ever responded to people in this manner, with snide derision and trying to one up people. NEVER. That guy is a total fraud.
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January 23, 2018, 03:21:10 PM

If there was ever any doubt that CSW is Fake Satoshi, a con man, and a liar:

https://twitter.com/ProfFaustus/status/955425740820008960

Just look at the way he responds in discourse. The real Satoshi never ever responded to people in this manner, with snide derision and trying to one up people. NEVER. That guy is a total fraud.

Australian authorities don't buy his story , does anyone ?
lol Vitalik was so funny when he smacked down Gavin when that fool was saying Wright was satoshi!! Wink haha ===>

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2qLI3VIHuKU
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January 23, 2018, 03:29:03 PM

Some teeny tiny movement up or?
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January 23, 2018, 03:43:20 PM
Last edit: January 23, 2018, 03:59:37 PM by mindrust

If there was ever any doubt that CSW is Fake Satoshi, a con man, and a liar:

https://twitter.com/ProfFaustus/status/955425740820008960

Just look at the way he responds in discourse. The real Satoshi never ever responded to people in this manner, with snide derision and trying to one up people. NEVER. That guy is a total fraud.

Even Roger doesn't confirm his identity as satoshi if you ask Roger directly. He just changes the subject and starts to talk about a completely irrelevant topic.

They are running a major worldwide scam and everybody knows it, yet some scum people support them anyway.
suspiciously square
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January 23, 2018, 03:50:21 PM

If there was ever any doubt that CSW is Fake Satoshi, a con man, and a liar:

https://twitter.com/ProfFaustus/status/955425740820008960

Just look at the way he responds in discourse. The real Satoshi never ever responded to people in this manner, with snide derision and trying to one up people. NEVER. That guy is a total fraud.

Even Roger doesn't confirm his identity as satoshi if you ask Roger directly. He just changes the subject and starts to talk about a completely irrelevant topic.

They are running a major worlwide scam and everybody knows it, yet some scum people support them anyway.

Nobody buys his story. All he had to do was sign a message and make it public, yet he refused.
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January 23, 2018, 03:54:40 PM

If there was ever any doubt that CSW is Fake Satoshi, a con man, and a liar:

https://twitter.com/ProfFaustus/status/955425740820008960

Just look at the way he responds in discourse. The real Satoshi never ever responded to people in this manner, with snide derision and trying to one up people. NEVER. That guy is a total fraud.

Even Roger doesn't confirm his identity as satoshi if you ask Roger directly. He just changes the subject and starts to talk about a completely irrelevant topic.

They are running a major worlwide scam and everybody knows it, yet some scum people support them anyway.

bitcointalk needs to lock/ban the bitcoincash thread ~ it only serves to confuse people. The test is over; that is not bitcoin let's gather signatures to lock the BCH thread Wink thank you for you support!
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January 23, 2018, 04:20:27 PM

If there was ever any doubt that CSW is Fake Satoshi, a con man, and a liar:

https://twitter.com/ProfFaustus/status/955425740820008960

Just look at the way he responds in discourse. The real Satoshi never ever responded to people in this manner, with snide derision and trying to one up people. NEVER. That guy is a total fraud.
I would but I'm blocked  Grin
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