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Question: What type of pool payouts do you prefer?
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Author Topic: [40+ PH] SlushPool (slushpool.com); World's First Mining Pool  (Read 3933525 times)
bobsav2121
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August 08, 2014, 04:28:31 PM
 #17701

Pool luck is not really a measure of luck at all. Pool luck is a statistical calculation, like a probability; so for any given amount of hashing speed at a given difficulty level you should expect a certain return. This is like tossing a coin, if you toss it 50 times you should expect 25 heads and 25 tails, although you may not get exactly these proportions.

That's it plain and simple pool luck is a measure of probability and as we know from tossing coins (or probability studies at school) the more times you toss the coin the more chance you have of getting an equal number of heads and tails. Probability tells us that if we toss a coin twice we should expect 1 head and 1 tail, if this works out then our luck is 100%. Lets toss a coin 100 times, imagine we get 50 heads and 50 tails, again our luck is 100%, because we are getting the result that probability says we should get.

If the pool probability calculation says we should expect say 5 blocks in a day, then if we get 5 blocks out luck is 100%, if we solve 10 blocks a day then our luck is 200% and if we solve only 1 block a day then our luck is just 20%, but as with tossing a coin the more times we try the closer the overall result comes to 100%.

It is not surprising that Slush runs at about 100% luck over a long period of time as that is what you should expect from every pool, in fact any pool running significantly below 100% in the long term is probably cheating you as probability says that all pool should run at about 100% in the same way that you should get an even number of heads and tails.

for the noobs out there I will say that there will always be a variance in probability, in just the same way that you can maybe sometimes throw 5 heads in a row; this is normal and unpredictable, you could try chasing the variance by switching between pools in an attempt to only mine in a pool that is experiencing good luck but the chances are that you will be using pure guesswork to base your decisions on, and even though in the short term you may make some gains eventually the rules of probability will hit you and you will have a run of bad luck which will even your luck out to about 100%. The only real option is to choose your pool (or pools if that is what you want) and stick with it, you can console yourself with the thought that whenever you see a run of bad luck it is just getting you closer to your next run of good luck.

I hope this will make sense to everyone and stop people seeing conspiracies whenever the pool luck drops.

CONGRATULATIONS SIR,

That is the best explanation of how this thing works ( or should work ) that I've ever seen on the internet.
Plain and simple and in terms that anyone can follow.  Grin

 
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tommymal83
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August 08, 2014, 05:05:40 PM
 #17702

thanks brilliant really helpful info regards  Grin Grin Grin Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy....you really are a hero
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August 08, 2014, 05:23:56 PM
 #17703

Luck ain't so bad right now!
bobsav2121
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August 08, 2014, 05:48:49 PM
 #17704

Luck ain't so bad right now!

It's probability not luck  Cheesy Grin

( fingers crossed )  Roll Eyes
bozo333
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August 08, 2014, 09:55:45 PM
 #17705

Pool luck is not really a measure of luck at all. Pool luck is a statistical calculation, like a probability; so for any given amount of hashing speed at a given difficulty level you should expect a certain return. This is like tossing a coin, if you toss it 50 times you should expect 25 heads and 25 tails, although you may not get exactly these proportions.

Your explanations are good and make sense, however they do not take into account that sh*t can and does happen. I work for a private fund that has lost millions over the last 10 years to outfits like Madoff, Corzine, EDF Mann etc. Yet we are still around, which kinda lets you deduce that there must be substantial funds at work here ;-)

Those were all bona fide, on-the-level, trustworthy outfits...until they collapsed with a ton of money, including ours. And take note of this curious fact: Money never disappears, it's just that somebody else has it. So, without implying that Slush or anybody is skimming, is crooked, or whatever... You cannot blindly go through life like a clown on a minefield, hoping that nothing will ever go wrong and there is no evil.
nottm28
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August 08, 2014, 10:03:13 PM
 #17706

Pool luck is not really a measure of luck at all. Pool luck is a statistical calculation, like a probability; so for any given amount of hashing speed at a given difficulty level you should expect a certain return. This is like tossing a coin, if you toss it 50 times you should expect 25 heads and 25 tails, although you may not get exactly these proportions.

Your explanations are good and make sense, however they do not take into account that sh*t can and does happen. I work for a private fund that has lost millions over the last 10 years to outfits like Madoff, Corzine, EDF Mann etc. Yet we are still around, which kinda lets you deduce that there must be substantial funds at work here ;-)

Those were all bona fide, on-the-level, trustworthy outfits...until they collapsed with a ton of money, including ours. And take note of this curious fact: Money never disappears, it's just that somebody else has it. So, without implying that Slush or anybody is skimming, is crooked, or whatever... You cannot blindly go through life like a clown on a minefield, hoping that nothing will ever go wrong and there is no evil.

You are indeed wise to doubt stuff. I think the majority of people (on here anyway) are hobbyist miners hoping to make some money, experimenting, learning. If you apply the harsh reality of the cut-throat industries (we all work in), then most of us probably wouldn't be here.

I suppose there is a balance to be found between worrying about the potential "shit" that might happen, and spending a couple of grand on mining kit to "see what happens". Lighten up Smiley

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kkurtmann
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August 08, 2014, 10:26:55 PM
 #17707

slush found 9 blocks in the last 24 hours. seems pretty lucky to me.

https://www.buytrezor.com?a=55c37b866c11   well sir, I like it!
bozo333
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August 08, 2014, 10:29:30 PM
 #17708

slush found 9 blocks in the last 24 hours. seems pretty lucky to me.

You are free to fool yourself if you only look at 'good' data.  Grin That's why the really successful trade outfits (consider ours to be one of them) will never rely on a person interpreting a chart or whatever, because most see only what they want to see. I understand most here are hobbyists doing this on the side but there is much to be gained to treat any endeavor with utmost attention to detail.
dbbrummel
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August 09, 2014, 03:15:49 AM
 #17709

The 'best' you can do in mining is join a pool so big it always makes you a little money.
There are freight trains and there are roller coasters. I find it interesting that Slush has
had a great day, even with lower pool GH/s and an increased LOD. If I can find this man
I will buy him a beer.
Billbags
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August 09, 2014, 03:53:49 AM
 #17710

Slush should be releasing the new website shortly. I can't wait to see/use it!!!

Listen: meat beat manifesto ~ Edge of no control (pt.1)
Read:"He who controls the past controls the future. He who controls the present controls the past." ~ George Orwell
Think: http://unenumerated.blogspot.com/2014/12/the-dawn-of-trustworthy-computing.html
andyjjones
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August 09, 2014, 06:00:36 AM
 #17711

Over the last 1-2 months, what has been the average block finding time on Slush?
RoadStress
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August 09, 2014, 06:12:08 AM
 #17712

Pool luck is not really a measure of luck at all. Pool luck is a statistical calculation, like a probability; so for any given amount of hashing speed at a given difficulty level you should expect a certain return. This is like tossing a coin, if you toss it 50 times you should expect 25 heads and 25 tails, although you may not get exactly these proportions.

Your explanations are good and make sense, however they do not take into account that sh*t can and does happen. I work for a private fund that has lost millions over the last 10 years to outfits like Madoff, Corzine, EDF Mann etc. Yet we are still around, which kinda lets you deduce that there must be substantial funds at work here ;-)

Those were all bona fide, on-the-level, trustworthy outfits...until they collapsed with a ton of money, including ours. And take note of this curious fact: Money never disappears, it's just that somebody else has it. So, without implying that Slush or anybody is skimming, is crooked, or whatever... You cannot blindly go through life like a clown on a minefield, hoping that nothing will ever go wrong and there is no evil.

For someone who works for a private funds you have little knowledge about how bitcoin mining works. A pool being unlucky doesn't mean that someone else is gaining that pool's money. Every pool has the same change of getting a block. What matters is only the speed of the pool in relate to how many block should that pool find on average. Imagine the pools as separate people tossing a coin. The faster pools just toss the coin faster, but everyone has a 50%-50% chance of hitting one side of the coin. Some may hit heads 5-10 times in a row, but they are not influencing each other. The luck is individual.

iCEBREAKER is a troll! He and cypherdoc helped HashFast scam 50 Million $ from its customers !
H/w Hosting Directory & Reputation - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=622998.0
AFlatMinor
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August 09, 2014, 06:43:52 AM
 #17713

Over the last 1-2 months, what has been the average block finding time on Slush?


For the last 54 days

Average Block Time
4:11:11

Blocks/day
5.74
kcal63
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August 09, 2014, 07:56:05 AM
 #17714

Well it worked. Everyone do my block dance. I did and it started raining blocks after the drought  Grin
Gonna have to post "The Slush Block Dance" on Youtube so you can all follow along.
As my Grandmother said, "It all comes out in the wash".
An average is just that, what it will average over a longer period, not what to expect every day.
 
bobsav2121
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August 09, 2014, 02:44:21 PM
 #17715

Over the last 1-2 months, what has been the average block finding time on Slush?


For the last 54 days

Average Block Time
4:11:11

Blocks/day
5.74


Is there somewhere to track these figures or did you manually tally them.?

Bob
thehairymob
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August 09, 2014, 02:49:13 PM
 #17716

I just want to say thanks to Slushy for still running this great pool. I've be out of mining for a bout a year now but I'm back up and running again. Last year I blew my graphics card and then went with the BFL for a miner which failed. Now thoughh I have a couple of Antminer S3's. Cheers Slushy Smiley
bozo333
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August 09, 2014, 02:50:53 PM
 #17717

Over the last 1-2 months, what has been the average block finding time on Slush?


For the last 54 days

Average Block Time
4:11:11

Blocks/day
5.74


Would be interesting to see how the blocks per day changed with each difficulty increase!
AFlatMinor
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August 09, 2014, 09:27:11 PM
 #17718

Over the last 1-2 months, what has been the average block finding time on Slush?


For the last 54 days

Average Block Time
4:11:11

Blocks/day
5.74


Would be interesting to see how the blocks per day changed with each difficulty increase!



What was the date of that?
bozo333
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August 09, 2014, 10:07:09 PM
 #17719

List of all BTC difficulty dates

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
RogMiner
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August 10, 2014, 02:35:43 PM
 #17720

Pool luck is not really a measure of luck at all. Pool luck is a statistical calculation, like a probability; so for any given amount of hashing speed at a given difficulty level you should expect a certain return. This is like tossing a coin, if you toss it 50 times you should expect 25 heads and 25 tails, although you may not get exactly these proportions.

Your explanations are good and make sense, however they do not take into account that sh*t can and does happen. I work for a private fund that has lost millions over the last 10 years to outfits like Madoff, Corzine, EDF Mann etc. Yet we are still around, which kinda lets you deduce that there must be substantial funds at work here ;-)

Those were all bona fide, on-the-level, trustworthy outfits...until they collapsed with a ton of money, including ours. And take note of this curious fact: Money never disappears, it's just that somebody else has it. So, without implying that Slush or anybody is skimming, is crooked, or whatever... You cannot blindly go through life like a clown on a minefield, hoping that nothing will ever go wrong and there is no evil.

I am note sure I follow your logic here, Slush is not an investment fund it is a mining outfit, therefore the only sh*t that happens comes within the rules of probability. Slush does hold our bitcoins so there is a potential that he could shut up shop and run away with all the unpaid bitcoins, however setting your payment level at the minimum allowed and switching pools if a payment is late can go some way towards mitigating such a risk.

I would guess that as an investment fund you probably invest in shares, and by the sounds of things in shares with a high risk/return potential so you shouldn't be surprised when sh*t happens, in fact it should be a part of your investment strategy. If you are investing in shares then you should realise that a funds value is just virtual until it is crystallised by a sale of the shares. This means that if you invest say £10M in Google and it doubles to £20M then you have on paper a £10M profit but that £10M profit only really exists if you sell the shares. If before you sell those shares they drop back to £10M then you could say that you have made a £10M loss, but in reality you never realised the 10M profit so you have just broken even, in such an example the £10M never really existed so it isn't true that "somebody else has it", it really did never exist.

It is not the case that I "go blindly through life like a clown on a minefield" (although I do struggle to understand your analogy), I take the time to understand the risks and rather that trusting Slush not to do me out of bitcoins, I use statistics to ensure that the returns from Slush are within a margin of acceptability.

It's easy to through about inaccurate analogies, or to imply some wrongdoing this is why there are so many conspiracy theories in the world; considering the existence of a conspiracy or of pure evil without first ruling out the alternatives is a sign of a weak mind, or poor cognitive ability.

As luck seems to be back with us now we could deduce that the rules of probability are just demonstrating their usual variance, although some may say that this is evidence of some higher force reacting top the negative comments posted here, personally I like the rain dance theory and look forward to seeing the video.
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