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Question: What type of pool payouts do you prefer?
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Author Topic: [2.5+ EH] Slush Pool (slushpool.com); World's First Mining Pool  (Read 4325896 times)
Searing
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August 08, 2014, 07:05:24 AM
 #17681

this bad luck streak seems just like back in Feb, March until we had an incredibly long good luck steak till a week or so ago. hopefully this bad luck streak is shorter.


statistically speaking does not the math imply..that eventually they have to balance out? ie this long luck street we had will now be matched by an equally long down streak?

(damn it scared self)

Searing

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1524451688
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kkurtmann
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August 08, 2014, 07:06:41 AM
 #17682

maybe, maybe not, that's how luck works, everything should balance out. may take a week a month or a year. i have been on this pool over 3 years and it always balances out and seemingly on the positive side ( dunno why, slush must be exceptionally lucky I guess)

https://www.buytrezor.com?a=55c37b866c11   well sir, I like it!
RogMiner
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August 08, 2014, 01:39:04 PM
 #17683

Pool luck is not really a measure of luck at all. Pool luck is a statistical calculation, like a probability; so for any given amount of hashing speed at a given difficulty level you should expect a certain return. This is like tossing a coin, if you toss it 50 times you should expect 25 heads and 25 tails, although you may not get exactly these proportions.

That's it plain and simple pool luck is a measure of probability and as we know from tossing coins (or probability studies at school) the more times you toss the coin the more chance you have of getting an equal number of heads and tails. Probability tells us that if we toss a coin twice we should expect 1 head and 1 tail, if this works out then our luck is 100%. Lets toss a coin 100 times, imagine we get 50 heads and 50 tails, again our luck is 100%, because we are getting the result that probability says we should get.

If the pool probability calculation says we should expect say 5 blocks in a day, then if we get 5 blocks out luck is 100%, if we solve 10 blocks a day then our luck is 200% and if we solve only 1 block a day then our luck is just 20%, but as with tossing a coin the more times we try the closer the overall result comes to 100%.

It is not surprising that Slush runs at about 100% luck over a long period of time as that is what you should expect from every pool, in fact any pool running significantly below 100% in the long term is probably cheating you as probability says that all pool should run at about 100% in the same way that you should get an even number of heads and tails.

for the noobs out there I will say that there will always be a variance in probability, in just the same way that you can maybe sometimes throw 5 heads in a row; this is normal and unpredictable, you could try chasing the variance by switching between pools in an attempt to only mine in a pool that is experiencing good luck but the chances are that you will be using pure guesswork to base your decisions on, and even though in the short term you may make some gains eventually the rules of probability will hit you and you will have a run of bad luck which will even your luck out to about 100%. The only real option is to choose your pool (or pools if that is what you want) and stick with it, you can console yourself with the thought that whenever you see a run of bad luck it is just getting you closer to your next run of good luck.

I hope this will make sense to everyone and stop people seeing conspiracies whenever the pool luck drops.
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August 08, 2014, 01:44:29 PM
 #17684

hi guys, can anyone advise me on import duty from china to uk via ups, i have just purchased 2 x s3 antminers at a total cost of 1.32 bitcoins approx £450.00p
could someone advise me what is the charge i will have to pay on import duty....thanks guys Huh Huh

nottm28
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August 08, 2014, 04:04:01 PM
 #17685

hi guys, can anyone advise me on import duty from china to uk via ups, i have just purchased 2 x s3 antminers at a total cost of 1.32 bitcoins approx £450.00p
could someone advise me what is the charge i will have to pay on import duty....thanks guys Huh Huh



I paid £201 to UPS for 4 miners - so I expect yours will be about £100 - they don't take cards btw - cash only or call the ups number 08457 877877 - option 0, 0 to pay by card when you know your miner is in the UK...

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bobsav2121
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August 08, 2014, 04:28:31 PM
 #17686

Pool luck is not really a measure of luck at all. Pool luck is a statistical calculation, like a probability; so for any given amount of hashing speed at a given difficulty level you should expect a certain return. This is like tossing a coin, if you toss it 50 times you should expect 25 heads and 25 tails, although you may not get exactly these proportions.

That's it plain and simple pool luck is a measure of probability and as we know from tossing coins (or probability studies at school) the more times you toss the coin the more chance you have of getting an equal number of heads and tails. Probability tells us that if we toss a coin twice we should expect 1 head and 1 tail, if this works out then our luck is 100%. Lets toss a coin 100 times, imagine we get 50 heads and 50 tails, again our luck is 100%, because we are getting the result that probability says we should get.

If the pool probability calculation says we should expect say 5 blocks in a day, then if we get 5 blocks out luck is 100%, if we solve 10 blocks a day then our luck is 200% and if we solve only 1 block a day then our luck is just 20%, but as with tossing a coin the more times we try the closer the overall result comes to 100%.

It is not surprising that Slush runs at about 100% luck over a long period of time as that is what you should expect from every pool, in fact any pool running significantly below 100% in the long term is probably cheating you as probability says that all pool should run at about 100% in the same way that you should get an even number of heads and tails.

for the noobs out there I will say that there will always be a variance in probability, in just the same way that you can maybe sometimes throw 5 heads in a row; this is normal and unpredictable, you could try chasing the variance by switching between pools in an attempt to only mine in a pool that is experiencing good luck but the chances are that you will be using pure guesswork to base your decisions on, and even though in the short term you may make some gains eventually the rules of probability will hit you and you will have a run of bad luck which will even your luck out to about 100%. The only real option is to choose your pool (or pools if that is what you want) and stick with it, you can console yourself with the thought that whenever you see a run of bad luck it is just getting you closer to your next run of good luck.

I hope this will make sense to everyone and stop people seeing conspiracies whenever the pool luck drops.

CONGRATULATIONS SIR,

That is the best explanation of how this thing works ( or should work ) that I've ever seen on the internet.
Plain and simple and in terms that anyone can follow.  Grin

 
tommymal83
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August 08, 2014, 05:05:40 PM
 #17687

thanks brilliant really helpful info regards  Grin Grin Grin Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy....you really are a hero
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August 08, 2014, 05:23:56 PM
 #17688

Luck ain't so bad right now!
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August 08, 2014, 05:48:49 PM
 #17689

Luck ain't so bad right now!

It's probability not luck  Cheesy Grin

( fingers crossed )  Roll Eyes
bozo333
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August 08, 2014, 09:55:45 PM
 #17690

Pool luck is not really a measure of luck at all. Pool luck is a statistical calculation, like a probability; so for any given amount of hashing speed at a given difficulty level you should expect a certain return. This is like tossing a coin, if you toss it 50 times you should expect 25 heads and 25 tails, although you may not get exactly these proportions.

Your explanations are good and make sense, however they do not take into account that sh*t can and does happen. I work for a private fund that has lost millions over the last 10 years to outfits like Madoff, Corzine, EDF Mann etc. Yet we are still around, which kinda lets you deduce that there must be substantial funds at work here ;-)

Those were all bona fide, on-the-level, trustworthy outfits...until they collapsed with a ton of money, including ours. And take note of this curious fact: Money never disappears, it's just that somebody else has it. So, without implying that Slush or anybody is skimming, is crooked, or whatever... You cannot blindly go through life like a clown on a minefield, hoping that nothing will ever go wrong and there is no evil.

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August 08, 2014, 10:03:13 PM
 #17691

Pool luck is not really a measure of luck at all. Pool luck is a statistical calculation, like a probability; so for any given amount of hashing speed at a given difficulty level you should expect a certain return. This is like tossing a coin, if you toss it 50 times you should expect 25 heads and 25 tails, although you may not get exactly these proportions.

Your explanations are good and make sense, however they do not take into account that sh*t can and does happen. I work for a private fund that has lost millions over the last 10 years to outfits like Madoff, Corzine, EDF Mann etc. Yet we are still around, which kinda lets you deduce that there must be substantial funds at work here ;-)

Those were all bona fide, on-the-level, trustworthy outfits...until they collapsed with a ton of money, including ours. And take note of this curious fact: Money never disappears, it's just that somebody else has it. So, without implying that Slush or anybody is skimming, is crooked, or whatever... You cannot blindly go through life like a clown on a minefield, hoping that nothing will ever go wrong and there is no evil.

You are indeed wise to doubt stuff. I think the majority of people (on here anyway) are hobbyist miners hoping to make some money, experimenting, learning. If you apply the harsh reality of the cut-throat industries (we all work in), then most of us probably wouldn't be here.

I suppose there is a balance to be found between worrying about the potential "shit" that might happen, and spending a couple of grand on mining kit to "see what happens". Lighten up Smiley

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August 08, 2014, 10:26:55 PM
 #17692

slush found 9 blocks in the last 24 hours. seems pretty lucky to me.

https://www.buytrezor.com?a=55c37b866c11   well sir, I like it!
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August 08, 2014, 10:29:30 PM
 #17693

slush found 9 blocks in the last 24 hours. seems pretty lucky to me.

You are free to fool yourself if you only look at 'good' data.  Grin That's why the really successful trade outfits (consider ours to be one of them) will never rely on a person interpreting a chart or whatever, because most see only what they want to see. I understand most here are hobbyists doing this on the side but there is much to be gained to treat any endeavor with utmost attention to detail.

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August 09, 2014, 03:15:49 AM
 #17694

The 'best' you can do in mining is join a pool so big it always makes you a little money.
There are freight trains and there are roller coasters. I find it interesting that Slush has
had a great day, even with lower pool GH/s and an increased LOD. If I can find this man
I will buy him a beer.
Billbags
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August 09, 2014, 03:53:49 AM
 #17695

Slush should be releasing the new website shortly. I can't wait to see/use it!!!

Listen: meat beat manifesto ~ Edge of no control (pt.1)
Read:"He who controls the past controls the future. He who controls the present controls the past." ~ George Orwell
Think: http://unenumerated.blogspot.com/2014/12/the-dawn-of-trustworthy-computing.html
andyjjones
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August 09, 2014, 06:00:36 AM
 #17696

Over the last 1-2 months, what has been the average block finding time on Slush?
RoadStress
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August 09, 2014, 06:12:08 AM
 #17697

Pool luck is not really a measure of luck at all. Pool luck is a statistical calculation, like a probability; so for any given amount of hashing speed at a given difficulty level you should expect a certain return. This is like tossing a coin, if you toss it 50 times you should expect 25 heads and 25 tails, although you may not get exactly these proportions.

Your explanations are good and make sense, however they do not take into account that sh*t can and does happen. I work for a private fund that has lost millions over the last 10 years to outfits like Madoff, Corzine, EDF Mann etc. Yet we are still around, which kinda lets you deduce that there must be substantial funds at work here ;-)

Those were all bona fide, on-the-level, trustworthy outfits...until they collapsed with a ton of money, including ours. And take note of this curious fact: Money never disappears, it's just that somebody else has it. So, without implying that Slush or anybody is skimming, is crooked, or whatever... You cannot blindly go through life like a clown on a minefield, hoping that nothing will ever go wrong and there is no evil.

For someone who works for a private funds you have little knowledge about how bitcoin mining works. A pool being unlucky doesn't mean that someone else is gaining that pool's money. Every pool has the same change of getting a block. What matters is only the speed of the pool in relate to how many block should that pool find on average. Imagine the pools as separate people tossing a coin. The faster pools just toss the coin faster, but everyone has a 50%-50% chance of hitting one side of the coin. Some may hit heads 5-10 times in a row, but they are not influencing each other. The luck is individual.

iCEBREAKER is a troll! He and cypherdoc helped HashFast scam 50 Million $ from its customers !
H/w Hosting Directory & Reputation - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=622998.0
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August 09, 2014, 06:43:52 AM
 #17698

Over the last 1-2 months, what has been the average block finding time on Slush?


For the last 54 days

Average Block Time
4:11:11

Blocks/day
5.74
kcal63
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August 09, 2014, 07:56:05 AM
 #17699

Well it worked. Everyone do my block dance. I did and it started raining blocks after the drought  Grin
Gonna have to post "The Slush Block Dance" on Youtube so you can all follow along.
As my Grandmother said, "It all comes out in the wash".
An average is just that, what it will average over a longer period, not what to expect every day.
 
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August 09, 2014, 02:44:21 PM
 #17700

Over the last 1-2 months, what has been the average block finding time on Slush?


For the last 54 days

Average Block Time
4:11:11

Blocks/day
5.74


Is there somewhere to track these figures or did you manually tally them.?

Bob
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