Searing
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Tips for help? 1BzbfMHCrTeLjc7eCGrYVhH3QXSRodSuke


August 08, 2014, 07:05:24 AM 

this bad luck streak seems just like back in Feb, March until we had an incredibly long good luck steak till a week or so ago. hopefully this bad luck streak is shorter.
statistically speaking does not the math imply..that eventually they have to balance out? ie this long luck street we had will now be matched by an equally long down streak? (damn it scared self) Searing






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kkurtmann


August 08, 2014, 07:06:41 AM 

maybe, maybe not, that's how luck works, everything should balance out. may take a week a month or a year. i have been on this pool over 3 years and it always balances out and seemingly on the positive side ( dunno why, slush must be exceptionally lucky I guess)




RogMiner
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August 08, 2014, 01:39:04 PM 

Pool luck is not really a measure of luck at all. Pool luck is a statistical calculation, like a probability; so for any given amount of hashing speed at a given difficulty level you should expect a certain return. This is like tossing a coin, if you toss it 50 times you should expect 25 heads and 25 tails, although you may not get exactly these proportions.
That's it plain and simple pool luck is a measure of probability and as we know from tossing coins (or probability studies at school) the more times you toss the coin the more chance you have of getting an equal number of heads and tails. Probability tells us that if we toss a coin twice we should expect 1 head and 1 tail, if this works out then our luck is 100%. Lets toss a coin 100 times, imagine we get 50 heads and 50 tails, again our luck is 100%, because we are getting the result that probability says we should get.
If the pool probability calculation says we should expect say 5 blocks in a day, then if we get 5 blocks out luck is 100%, if we solve 10 blocks a day then our luck is 200% and if we solve only 1 block a day then our luck is just 20%, but as with tossing a coin the more times we try the closer the overall result comes to 100%.
It is not surprising that Slush runs at about 100% luck over a long period of time as that is what you should expect from every pool, in fact any pool running significantly below 100% in the long term is probably cheating you as probability says that all pool should run at about 100% in the same way that you should get an even number of heads and tails.
for the noobs out there I will say that there will always be a variance in probability, in just the same way that you can maybe sometimes throw 5 heads in a row; this is normal and unpredictable, you could try chasing the variance by switching between pools in an attempt to only mine in a pool that is experiencing good luck but the chances are that you will be using pure guesswork to base your decisions on, and even though in the short term you may make some gains eventually the rules of probability will hit you and you will have a run of bad luck which will even your luck out to about 100%. The only real option is to choose your pool (or pools if that is what you want) and stick with it, you can console yourself with the thought that whenever you see a run of bad luck it is just getting you closer to your next run of good luck.
I hope this will make sense to everyone and stop people seeing conspiracies whenever the pool luck drops.




tommymal83
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August 08, 2014, 01:44:29 PM 

hi guys, can anyone advise me on import duty from china to uk via ups, i have just purchased 2 x s3 antminers at a total cost of 1.32 bitcoins approx £450.00p could someone advise me what is the charge i will have to pay on import duty....thanks guys




nottm28


August 08, 2014, 04:04:01 PM 

hi guys, can anyone advise me on import duty from china to uk via ups, i have just purchased 2 x s3 antminers at a total cost of 1.32 bitcoins approx £450.00p could someone advise me what is the charge i will have to pay on import duty....thanks guys I paid £201 to UPS for 4 miners  so I expect yours will be about £100  they don't take cards btw  cash only or call the ups number 08457 877877  option 0, 0 to pay by card when you know your miner is in the UK...

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bobsav2121


August 08, 2014, 04:28:31 PM 

Pool luck is not really a measure of luck at all. Pool luck is a statistical calculation, like a probability; so for any given amount of hashing speed at a given difficulty level you should expect a certain return. This is like tossing a coin, if you toss it 50 times you should expect 25 heads and 25 tails, although you may not get exactly these proportions.
That's it plain and simple pool luck is a measure of probability and as we know from tossing coins (or probability studies at school) the more times you toss the coin the more chance you have of getting an equal number of heads and tails. Probability tells us that if we toss a coin twice we should expect 1 head and 1 tail, if this works out then our luck is 100%. Lets toss a coin 100 times, imagine we get 50 heads and 50 tails, again our luck is 100%, because we are getting the result that probability says we should get.
If the pool probability calculation says we should expect say 5 blocks in a day, then if we get 5 blocks out luck is 100%, if we solve 10 blocks a day then our luck is 200% and if we solve only 1 block a day then our luck is just 20%, but as with tossing a coin the more times we try the closer the overall result comes to 100%.
It is not surprising that Slush runs at about 100% luck over a long period of time as that is what you should expect from every pool, in fact any pool running significantly below 100% in the long term is probably cheating you as probability says that all pool should run at about 100% in the same way that you should get an even number of heads and tails.
for the noobs out there I will say that there will always be a variance in probability, in just the same way that you can maybe sometimes throw 5 heads in a row; this is normal and unpredictable, you could try chasing the variance by switching between pools in an attempt to only mine in a pool that is experiencing good luck but the chances are that you will be using pure guesswork to base your decisions on, and even though in the short term you may make some gains eventually the rules of probability will hit you and you will have a run of bad luck which will even your luck out to about 100%. The only real option is to choose your pool (or pools if that is what you want) and stick with it, you can console yourself with the thought that whenever you see a run of bad luck it is just getting you closer to your next run of good luck.
I hope this will make sense to everyone and stop people seeing conspiracies whenever the pool luck drops.
CONGRATULATIONS SIR, That is the best explanation of how this thing works ( or should work ) that I've ever seen on the internet. Plain and simple and in terms that anyone can follow.




tommymal83
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August 08, 2014, 05:05:40 PM 





dbbrummel
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August 08, 2014, 05:23:56 PM 

Luck ain't so bad right now!




bobsav2121


August 08, 2014, 05:48:49 PM 

Luck ain't so bad right now!
It's probability not luck ( fingers crossed )




bozo333


August 08, 2014, 09:55:45 PM 

Pool luck is not really a measure of luck at all. Pool luck is a statistical calculation, like a probability; so for any given amount of hashing speed at a given difficulty level you should expect a certain return. This is like tossing a coin, if you toss it 50 times you should expect 25 heads and 25 tails, although you may not get exactly these proportions.
Your explanations are good and make sense, however they do not take into account that sh*t can and does happen. I work for a private fund that has lost millions over the last 10 years to outfits like Madoff, Corzine, EDF Mann etc. Yet we are still around, which kinda lets you deduce that there must be substantial funds at work here ;) Those were all bona fide, onthelevel, trustworthy outfits...until they collapsed with a ton of money, including ours. And take note of this curious fact: Money never disappears, it's just that somebody else has it. So, without implying that Slush or anybody is skimming, is crooked, or whatever... You cannot blindly go through life like a clown on a minefield, hoping that nothing will ever go wrong and there is no evil.




nottm28


August 08, 2014, 10:03:13 PM 

Pool luck is not really a measure of luck at all. Pool luck is a statistical calculation, like a probability; so for any given amount of hashing speed at a given difficulty level you should expect a certain return. This is like tossing a coin, if you toss it 50 times you should expect 25 heads and 25 tails, although you may not get exactly these proportions.
Your explanations are good and make sense, however they do not take into account that sh*t can and does happen. I work for a private fund that has lost millions over the last 10 years to outfits like Madoff, Corzine, EDF Mann etc. Yet we are still around, which kinda lets you deduce that there must be substantial funds at work here ;) Those were all bona fide, onthelevel, trustworthy outfits...until they collapsed with a ton of money, including ours. And take note of this curious fact: Money never disappears, it's just that somebody else has it. So, without implying that Slush or anybody is skimming, is crooked, or whatever... You cannot blindly go through life like a clown on a minefield, hoping that nothing will ever go wrong and there is no evil. You are indeed wise to doubt stuff. I think the majority of people (on here anyway) are hobbyist miners hoping to make some money, experimenting, learning. If you apply the harsh reality of the cutthroat industries (we all work in), then most of us probably wouldn't be here. I suppose there is a balance to be found between worrying about the potential "shit" that might happen, and spending a couple of grand on mining kit to "see what happens". Lighten up

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kkurtmann


August 08, 2014, 10:26:55 PM 

slush found 9 blocks in the last 24 hours. seems pretty lucky to me.




bozo333


August 08, 2014, 10:29:30 PM 

slush found 9 blocks in the last 24 hours. seems pretty lucky to me.
You are free to fool yourself if you only look at 'good' data. That's why the really successful trade outfits (consider ours to be one of them) will never rely on a person interpreting a chart or whatever, because most see only what they want to see. I understand most here are hobbyists doing this on the side but there is much to be gained to treat any endeavor with utmost attention to detail.




dbbrummel
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August 09, 2014, 03:15:49 AM 

The 'best' you can do in mining is join a pool so big it always makes you a little money. There are freight trains and there are roller coasters. I find it interesting that Slush has had a great day, even with lower pool GH/s and an increased LOD. If I can find this man I will buy him a beer.




Billbags
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Brainwashed this way


August 09, 2014, 03:53:49 AM 

Slush should be releasing the new website shortly. I can't wait to see/use it!!!




andyjjones
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August 09, 2014, 06:00:36 AM 

Over the last 12 months, what has been the average block finding time on Slush?




RoadStress
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August 09, 2014, 06:12:08 AM 

Pool luck is not really a measure of luck at all. Pool luck is a statistical calculation, like a probability; so for any given amount of hashing speed at a given difficulty level you should expect a certain return. This is like tossing a coin, if you toss it 50 times you should expect 25 heads and 25 tails, although you may not get exactly these proportions.
Your explanations are good and make sense, however they do not take into account that sh*t can and does happen. I work for a private fund that has lost millions over the last 10 years to outfits like Madoff, Corzine, EDF Mann etc. Yet we are still around, which kinda lets you deduce that there must be substantial funds at work here ;) Those were all bona fide, onthelevel, trustworthy outfits...until they collapsed with a ton of money, including ours. And take note of this curious fact: Money never disappears, it's just that somebody else has it. So, without implying that Slush or anybody is skimming, is crooked, or whatever... You cannot blindly go through life like a clown on a minefield, hoping that nothing will ever go wrong and there is no evil. For someone who works for a private funds you have little knowledge about how bitcoin mining works. A pool being unlucky doesn't mean that someone else is gaining that pool's money. Every pool has the same change of getting a block. What matters is only the speed of the pool in relate to how many block should that pool find on average. Imagine the pools as separate people tossing a coin. The faster pools just toss the coin faster, but everyone has a 50%50% chance of hitting one side of the coin. Some may hit heads 510 times in a row, but they are not influencing each other. The luck is individual.




AFlatMinor
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August 09, 2014, 06:43:52 AM 

Over the last 12 months, what has been the average block finding time on Slush?
For the last 54 days Average Block Time 4:11:11 Blocks/day 5.74




kcal63


August 09, 2014, 07:56:05 AM 

Well it worked. Everyone do my block dance. I did and it started raining blocks after the drought Gonna have to post "The Slush Block Dance" on Youtube so you can all follow along. As my Grandmother said, "It all comes out in the wash". An average is just that, what it will average over a longer period, not what to expect every day.




bobsav2121


August 09, 2014, 02:44:21 PM 

Over the last 12 months, what has been the average block finding time on Slush?
For the last 54 days Average Block Time 4:11:11 Blocks/day 5.74 Is there somewhere to track these figures or did you manually tally them.? Bob




