ASICMINER Speculation Thread

[velacreations]

Seems like someone is pushing the price down before dividend day...

Catapult in action? :-)

maybe, they are probably trying to get it near 3.7-3.8 to buy a bunch to make a nice earning on dividends, which may be close to .03 tomorrow.

[ex-trader]

...but AM is still maintaining 13% of the network.

And eventually the world will work out that 13% of all the available Bitcoins = 13% x 9.5m = 1,235,000 BTC

Current Market Value of AM = 1,600,000 BTC

So unless there's a lot of fees from real BTC transactions flowing through soon, people are paying 4BTC per share to earn back 3BTC through mining over the next decade or so.......

Unless AM network share increases a lot, or they can keep selling mining chips to people who can never make back their investment, then it's really hard to see the current values holding.......

[powpow]

...but AM is still maintaining 13% of the network.

And eventually the world will work out that 13% of all the available Bitcoins = 13% x 9.5m = 1,235,000 BTC

Current Market Value of AM = 1,600,000 BTC

So unless there's a lot of fees from real BTC transactions flowing through soon, people are paying 4BTC per share to earn back 3BTC through mining over the next decade or so.......

Unless AM network share increases a lot, then it's really hard to see the current values holding.......

You're forgetting hardware sales...

[ex-trader]

You're forgetting hardware sales...

Just added that. All the hardware sale right now are still in a dream period for AM, they can get high price and make big sales, but that'll drop when people realise they cannot make ROI, so either prices or sales volumes will fall dramatically.

[JimiQ84]

You're forgetting hardware sales...

Just added that. All the hardware sale right now are still in a dream period for AM, they can get high price and make big sales, but that'll drop when people realise they cannot make ROI, so either prices or sales volumes will fall dramatically.

People won't realize they don't make ROI, because they actually do make ROI. Check your math please.

Also, according to friedcat's financial report, sales were 60% of mining revenue, or 35% of whole revenue. Pretty good if you ask me.

[velacreations]

...but AM is still maintaining 13% of the network.

And eventually the world will work out that 13% of all the available Bitcoins = 13% x 9.5m = 1,235,000 BTC

Current Market Value of AM = 1,600,000 BTC

So unless there's a lot of fees from real BTC transactions flowing through soon, people are paying 4BTC per share to earn back 3BTC through mining over the next decade or so.......

Unless AM network share increases a lot, or they can keep selling mining chips to people who can never make back their investment, then it's really hard to see the current values holding.......

hardware and "franchising"

And who says AM has to stay at 13%?  Why not 30%?

[velacreations]

Just added that. All the hardware sale right now are still in a dream period for AM, they can get high price and make big sales, but that'll drop when people realise they cannot make ROI, so either prices or sales volumes will fall dramatically.

I've been hearing this nonsense since May.  Meanwhile, AM has made tens of thousands of BTC while people like you said they couldn't/wouldn't

[ex-trader]

And who says AM has to stay at 13%?  Why not 30%?

Thats my point - at 13% the maths don't work, even adding an extra 50% to mining revenue for hardware as in the post above gets to earnings of 4 BTC over 10-15 years on a 4 BTC investment - wow 0% return......

My point is simple - if AM do not increase their hashrate a lot, the shares are over-valued.....

[AMuppInTime]

...but AM is still maintaining 13% of the network.

And eventually the world will work out that 13% of all the available Bitcoins = 13% x 9.5m = 1,235,000 BTC

Current Market Value of AM = 1,600,000 BTC

So unless there's a lot of fees from real BTC transactions flowing through soon, people are paying 4BTC per share to earn back 3BTC through mining over the next decade or so.......

Unless AM network share increases a lot, or they can keep selling mining chips to people who can never make back their investment, then it's really hard to see the current values holding.......

Your valuation doesn't hold: you're not buying a finite state, Bitcoins will keep circulating beyond that distribution. You're buying into a company, not into a finite distribution system set to end at a finite time. That means the cash FLOW is the important issue. Just like in real life the valuation of a company is not locked to how much fiat is in circulation (as we all know, cash circulates around).
I agree that there is a link right now, but they are already generating revenue that isn't mined, that should give you an idea of possible expansions they might explore. However, there is a huge risk from the shaky grounds the business is standing on: legal, logistic and so on. There is not much liquidity to move 100 shares so the price we see is still "pretend" regarding current price level seen on exchanges. I totally understand folks hedging their position by selling some shares "while there is some kind of support at said price level".
Again, this has been said much but should be kept in mind by all in here:
Only invest what you can afford to lose.
Discl: I am Long AM, but there's a risky road ahead for many, expect many bumps in the road with weak hands dropping here and there.

[ex-trader]

I've been hearing this nonsense since May.  Meanwhile, AM has made tens of thousands of BTC while people like you said they couldn't/wouldn't

It's not nonsense - do the maths.

I never said they couldn't do what they did, the exact opposite, I believed and bought a just over 1BTC and move the price up and got criticised for buying at 1.40, happily sold for a big profit later.......

Mark my words, if AM can get back to 20-40% then all is rosy if not then you'll be seeing big falls in price.

I don't have an interest either way, just following this and stating my analysis....

[ex-trader]

Your valuation doesn't hold: you're not buying a finite state, Bitcoins will keep circulating beyond that distribution. You're buying into a company, not into a finite distribution system set to end at a finite time. That means the cash FLOW is the important issue. Just like in real life the valuation of a company is not locked to how much fiat is in circulation (as we all know, cash circulates around).
I agree that there is a link right now, but they are already generating revenue that isn't mined, that should give you an idea of possible expansions they might explore. However, there is a huge risk from the shaky grounds the business is standing on: legal, logistic and so on. There is not much liquidity to move 100 shares so the price we see is still "pretend" regarding current price level seen on exchanges. I totally understand folks hedging their position by selling some shares "while there is some kind of support at said price level".
Again, this has been said much but should be kept in mind by all in here:
Only invest what you can afford to lose.
Discl: I am Long AM, but there's a risky road ahead for many, expect many bumps in the road with weak hands dropping here and there.

The intangible you're talking about is fees and right now they are almost non-existent........

[velacreations]

And who says AM has to stay at 13%?  Why not 30%?

Thats my point - at 13% the maths don't work, even adding an extra 50% to mining revenue for hardware as in the post above gets to earnings of 4 BTC over 10-15 years on a 4 BTC investment - wow 0% return......

My point is simple - if AM do not increase their hashrate a lot, the shares are over-valued.....

ok, so you admit that hardware adds a considerable amount of profit, but what about franchising?

With mining, franchising and hardware sales, AM can literally have a hand in over 50% of the network.  So, by your own figures, 9.5M /2 = 4.25M btc.  Even at 30% of the network, that's 2.85M btc.

Of course, this all ignores fees in the future...

Mark my words, if AM can get back to 20-40% then all is rosy if not then you'll be seeing big falls in price.

That's the nonsense.  When hardware is for sale, mining typically makes up less than 1/2 of the profits.  So, if they can continue to sell hardware, and maintain hash at 15%, then it is like they have 30-40% of the network, because that's the kind of profits they are making.

[AMuppInTime]

The intangible you're talking about is fees and right now they are almost non-existent........

People value a company forward - everything is too easy with hindsight.
The forward value includes fees and other ventures AM might go in, such as hardware sale, manufacturing, distribution, and everything else.

Example: current valuation for Tesla is looking at perfect execution for the next 8-10 years. Meanwhile bears (lingo for "the ones saying it will go down / want it to go down") are saying that "$TSLA isn't worth half it's current valuation by looking at current sales" (paraphrase) - everyone has an agenda, and only the fool blindly listens.

[superduh]

The intangible you're talking about is fees and right now they are almost non-existent........

People value a company forward - everything is too easy with hindsight.
The forward value includes fees and other ventures AM might go in, such as hardware sale, manufacturing, distribution, and everything else.

Example: current valuation for Tesla is looking at perfect execution for the next 8-10 years. Meanwhile bears (lingo for "the ones saying it will go down / want it to go down") are saying that "$TSLA isn't worth half it's current valuation by looking at current sales" (paraphrase) - everyone has an agenda, and only the fool blindly listens.

ASIC Miner could buy out some small fish in other Hardware/tech industry.
they have enough coins to make good, smart acquisitions  bitcoin or NOT bitcoin 100% related
they could also invest into their competitors thus ensuring mutual prosperity

[bitzox]

And eventually the world will work out that 13% of all the available Bitcoins = 13% x 9.5m = 1,235,000 BTC

Current Market Value of AM = 1,600,000 BTC

This is largely irrelevant, look at the market cap of US companies compared to the total money supply in the US.

Market Cap for all US companies (2012): 18.7 trillion USD

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/CM.MKT.LCAP.CD?order=wbapi_data_value_2012+wbapi_data_value+wbapi_data_value-last&sort=asc

Total M1 Money Supply (Dec 2012): 2.4 trillion USD

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/current/

Comparing money supply to market cap is meaningless. Granted their is a tighter link between AM and Bitcoin than the general economy of the US and M1 but that doesn't change the fact that this comparison doesn't really say anything. Using your logic should one be worried that at the end of 2012 Apple's market cap represented 10% of the money supply? Does apple really sell 10% of all products or generate 10% of GDP? Of course not.

[AMuppInTime]

Comparing money supply to market cap is meaningless.

Not entirely meaningless but the analysis has to be targeted..


Meanwhile anybody else noticing the rise of the option play that has been going on for a while? It seemed very few were offered when the exchange allowed them but there have been quite a few significant options for sale here and there (batches of 20, 30, 50, 100s!)

I would wager they are coming from an individual that has thousands of share, for whom controlling the level of the market is not overly difficult. If you do wander down the option path, understand that the type of behavior seen as today (big push down to 3.9 before divs) is exactly the type of play someone with a lot of money or shares can pull (there were few shares that needed to get bought to push the price down)
Always look at volume, and option is a game where the other trader has an incentive to artifially play against you.

[velacreations]

Meanwhile anybody else noticing the rise of the option play that has been going on for a while? It seemed very few were offered when the exchange allowed them but there have been quite a few significant options for sale here and there (batches of 20, 30, 50, 100s!)

I would wager they are coming from an individual that has thousands of share, for whom controlling the level of the market is not overly difficult. If you do wander down the option path, understand that the type of behavior seen as today (big push down to 3.9 before divs) is exactly the type of play someone with a lot of money or shares can pull (there were few shares that needed to get bought to push the price down)
Always look at volume, and option is a game where the other trader has an incentive to artifially play against you.

I, too, have been noticing these things.  With volume so low, someone is able to push the price very easily with relatively few shares. 

Whales making splashes.

[bitcoinarnold]

I would def jump ship If I was in ASICMiner right now, their hashrate is unsustainable and their obviously having some infrastructure problems.

[bitfair]

I would def jump ship If I was in ASICMiner right now, their hashrate is unsustainable and their obviously having some infrastructure problems.

I'm not aware of any infrastructure problems right now, and, as far as I know, AM is currently in the process of deploying and selling around 200TH/s of hashing power. I see no reason why anyone would want to "jump ship" other than to let you scoop up cheap shares.

Please elaborate a little on your argument, if'n you please!

[pikeadz]

I would def jump ship If I was in ASICMiner right now, their hashrate is unsustainable and their obviously having some infrastructure problems.

Already did.  I am waiting for it to hit 2.5 and I will jump back in.  Just not enough room for error in the prices of shares right now.  If I buy in at 3.75, it will likely keep going down and the dividend is insignificant right now, given their loss of hashrate as a percentage of the total network.