ASICMINER Speculation Thread

[ianp]

Why is everyone so concerned with a 30 hour estimate all of the sudden?

Why not 24, 36 or 48?

48 and 36 are still relevant, but the asicminercharts.com/live only shows up to 30 hours.

24 hours tends to be too inaccurate for my tastes.

Ah, okay.

The link in my sig will let you customize it for however long you want. Give that a shot if you want longer periods.

[keeron]

Starting speculation on the divs ....

I've been paying close attention to the group buy threads here (AM related) as well as the mining/div address. Here's an interesting fact... There's atleast 1600 BTC worth of sales here... even more if we count the other group buys, but here's how I reached that:

- Follow CannaryInTheMine's coupon thread, his payment address is 15HJTCu5d87FMdczKJ2fLXHj4t3LcT77hn
- He is forward these to FC to address 1ZGtnxLWYVDbUVXPQLTRqnF6Bv6u2BMf8 (other payments from GB's also ended here, hence that conclusion). This address currently has 1,670 BTC
- 1LNKmBRvC3Tmk56gPV6etmxqSzpP1La2Bf and 1Lo6q72PBDrxm7cDKrxze3hmF3p2gkbeJe are two other addresses belonging to FC/ASICMINER where the GB payments were followed to... EACH having  315 BTC

~3700 BTC counted so far. There is definitely going to be some percentage reserved for development and other costs... but that along with the ~2400 BTC from mining, we should have a pretty good dividend this week.

[Vycid]

Starting speculation on the divs ....

I've been paying close attention to the group buy threads here (AM related) as well as the mining/div address. Here's an interesting fact... There's atleast 1600 BTC worth of sales here... even more if we count the other group buys, but here's how I reached that:

- Follow CannaryInTheMine's coupon thread, his payment address is 15HJTCu5d87FMdczKJ2fLXHj4t3LcT77hn
- He is forward these to FC to address 1ZGtnxLWYVDbUVXPQLTRqnF6Bv6u2BMf8 (other payments from GB's also ended here, hence that conclusion). This address currently has 1,670 BTC
- 1LNKmBRvC3Tmk56gPV6etmxqSzpP1La2Bf and 1Lo6q72PBDrxm7cDKrxze3hmF3p2gkbeJe are two other addresses belonging to FC/ASICMINER where the GB payments were followed to... EACH having  315 BTC

~3700 BTC counted so far. There is definitely going to be some percentage reserved for development and other costs... but that along with the ~2400 BTC from mining, we should have a pretty good dividend this week.

Thanks for the math. (3700+2400)/400000 would land us at 0.01525 for a pretty solid week. I'm speculating 0.018 because it's usually easier to underestimate revenue than overestimate.

Of course FC may retain an indefinite amount, so the whole thing is a crapshoot really.

[Franktank]

Starting speculation on the divs ....

I've been paying close attention to the group buy threads here (AM related) as well as the mining/div address. Here's an interesting fact... There's atleast 1600 BTC worth of sales here... even more if we count the other group buys, but here's how I reached that:

- Follow CannaryInTheMine's coupon thread, his payment address is 15HJTCu5d87FMdczKJ2fLXHj4t3LcT77hn
- He is forward these to FC to address 1ZGtnxLWYVDbUVXPQLTRqnF6Bv6u2BMf8 (other payments from GB's also ended here, hence that conclusion). This address currently has 1,670 BTC
- 1LNKmBRvC3Tmk56gPV6etmxqSzpP1La2Bf and 1Lo6q72PBDrxm7cDKrxze3hmF3p2gkbeJe are two other addresses belonging to FC/ASICMINER where the GB payments were followed to... EACH having  315 BTC

~3700 BTC counted so far. There is definitely going to be some percentage reserved for development and other costs... but that along with the ~2400 BTC from mining, we should have a pretty good dividend this week.

Thanks for the math. (3700+2400)/400000 would land us at 0.01525 for a pretty solid week. I'm speculating 0.018 because it's usually easier to underestimate revenue than overestimate.

Of course FC may retain an indefinite amount, so the whole thing is a crapshoot really.

I hope not, anything over 0.015 is excessive right now. I would take 0.01/share for the next several weeks if it means ensuring 2nd generation chips are ready for October/November. I'm certain the total network hash rate will be ~2 PH/s before 2013 closes.

[Vycid]

Starting speculation on the divs ....

I've been paying close attention to the group buy threads here (AM related) as well as the mining/div address. Here's an interesting fact... There's atleast 1600 BTC worth of sales here... even more if we count the other group buys, but here's how I reached that:

- Follow CannaryInTheMine's coupon thread, his payment address is 15HJTCu5d87FMdczKJ2fLXHj4t3LcT77hn
- He is forward these to FC to address 1ZGtnxLWYVDbUVXPQLTRqnF6Bv6u2BMf8 (other payments from GB's also ended here, hence that conclusion). This address currently has 1,670 BTC
- 1LNKmBRvC3Tmk56gPV6etmxqSzpP1La2Bf and 1Lo6q72PBDrxm7cDKrxze3hmF3p2gkbeJe are two other addresses belonging to FC/ASICMINER where the GB payments were followed to... EACH having  315 BTC

~3700 BTC counted so far. There is definitely going to be some percentage reserved for development and other costs... but that along with the ~2400 BTC from mining, we should have a pretty good dividend this week.

Thanks for the math. (3700+2400)/400000 would land us at 0.01525 for a pretty solid week. I'm speculating 0.018 because it's usually easier to underestimate revenue than overestimate.

Of course FC may retain an indefinite amount, so the whole thing is a crapshoot really.

I hope not, anything over 0.015 is excessive right now. I would take 0.01/share for the next several weeks if it means ensuring 2nd generation chips are ready for October/November. I'm certain the total network hash rate will be ~2 PH/s before 2013 closes.

Marginal hashrate increase is cheaper than you realize... I estimate that FC is paying about $1.50/GH (about $15/blade) for Gen 1, not counting NRE.

Discounting Gen 2 NRE (which Friedcat is more than competent enough to have anticipated), the cost will likely be half or less per GH. If he needs to add an additional 500 TH because we are over projections, I couldn't imagine that costing much more than another half million, including hosting arrangements (the only complicating factor being his ability to scale production).

A half million additional is ~4200 BTC, which he's probably close to reaching if he hasn't already.

If he continues to siphon funds, I'd read that as an indication that things aren't on target with the chip development, and that he's going to have to ramp hardware output to compensate.

Then again, without regular financial statements (I'm using one from quite a while back) I can't do this analysis properly and I'm talking out my butt far more than usual.

[velacreations]

If he continues to siphon funds, I'd read that as an indication that things aren't on target with the chip development, and that he's going to have to ramp hardware output to compensate.

He may be planning a bigger production than 500 TH, maybe on the scale of 1000 TH or more. 

[Vycid]

If he continues to siphon funds, I'd read that as an indication that things aren't on target with the chip development, and that he's going to have to ramp hardware output to compensate.

He may be planning a bigger production than 500 TH, maybe on the scale of 1000 TH or more. 

1000 TH MORE than he was originally planning?  It's possible, but sounds like a logistical nightmare.

[eb3full]

friedcat was planning a lot more than a petahash.

[Vycid]

friedcat was planning a lot more than a petahash.

Do you have a source? All I remember is a vague reference to "exponentially increasing".

[eb3full]

Do you have a source? All I remember is a vague reference to "exponentially increasing".

rockxie's slideshow said they were deploying a petahash mine before all of these competitors showed up. If they're deploying a petahash mine, they will have a ton more equipment for sale and for franchising.

[binaryFate]

Do you have a source? All I remember is a vague reference to "exponentially increasing".

rockxie's slideshow said they were deploying a petahash mine before all of these competitors showed up. If they're deploying a petahash mine, they will have a ton more equipment for sale and for franchising.

Mmm... I remember that the petahash was planned for more like the end of the year.

[eb3full]

Best guess is assembly of 65nm ascis begins next month and continues until they've deployed a petahash or more by the end of year.

[Vexual]

3.4BTC * 400,000 = 1360,000BTC
> 0.136 billion USD

Q: How much hashing power does Bitfountain plan to deploy within this year?
Friedcat: 800-1000T within this year.

Q: What are the specs of the second batch? When will the mass production begin?
Friedcat: The exact numbers will only be known when the chips are out of fab, currently we only have simulated results. Mass production will be in October the earliest.

Q: What would be the physical address of the offshore company be to registered?
Friedcat: It will be on an island where financial freedom is more possible to achieve.

Q: Do you have plans for the future other than mining and selling hardware?
Friedcat: ASICMINER's business is confined within mining and selling mining hardware. We might do some    
periphery work, but that won't be too distant.

Q: What kind of investors or business partners are you keeping in touch with?
Friedcat: We currently don't accept external funds, so there is no private investors. The partners we keep in touch with are mostly tech related.

Q: After the batch shipping from Avalon and BFL, how would the manufacturers in Shenzhen compete with them?
Friedcat: Our advantage to manufacture chips at the cost price is invincible.

Q: Are you hiring? What kind of people do you need?
Friedcat: We need people specialized in analog electronics, but we don't put much hope in finding this kind of people within China.

Q: Any plans or strategies that are suitable for the public to know?
Friedcat: We will be focusing more on the area that we have the most advantage in. It depends on whether we have more advantage in chip design or the ability to deploy fast.

Q: Why the hashing power of AM is not stable?
Friedcat: The variance of solo mining itself is relatively huge. And the whole network is being DDOS'ed lately, the 0.8.3 version of the software has fixed some bugs so as to prevent DDOS.

[Vycid]

Q: After the batch shipping from Avalon and BFL, how would the manufacturers in Shenzhen compete with them?
Friedcat: Our advantage to manufacture chips at the cost price is invincible.

[binaryFate]

I've forgotten this sentence... Hahaha so cool!! Plain and simple 

[Vycid]

I've forgotten this sentence... Hahaha so cool!! Plain and simple  

I'm guessing you haven't seen GoldenEye.

[binaryFate]

I've forgotten this sentence... Hahaha so cool!! Plain and simple  

I'm guessing you haven't seen GoldenEye.

I've forgotten it from friedcat only. Remember more or less the movie, in French version he sounds extremely dumb.   

[freedomno1]

Q: After the batch shipping from Avalon and BFL, how would the manufacturers in Shenzhen compete with them?
Friedcat: Our advantage to manufacture chips at the cost price is invincible.

I did like that one and the Cock of Wealth

[velacreations]

~120 shares just got bought up in the last hour.

Anticipation of a decent div?  Or just leaving the other securities?

I am surprised by the level of demand this morning.  Pull those sell orders, guys.

[velacreations]

div: 0.01355608